Variational Inference Based Kernel Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Construction of Prediction Intervals for Industrial Time Series With Incomplete Input

Prediction intervals(PIs)for industrial time series can provide useful guidance for workers.Given that the failure of industrial sensors may cause the missing point in inputs,the existing kernel dynamic Bayesian networks(KDBN),serving as an effective method for PIs construction,suffer from high computational load using the stochastic algorithm for inference.This study proposes a variational inference method for the KDBN for the purpose of fast inference,which avoids the timeconsuming stochastic sampling.The proposed algorithm contains two stages.The first stage involves the inference of the missing inputs by using a local linearization based variational inference,and based on the computed posterior distributions over the missing inputs the second stage sees a Gaussian approximation for probability over the nodes in future time slices.To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method,a synthetic dataset and a practical dataset of generation flow of blast furnace gas(BFG)are employed with different ratios of missing inputs.The experimental results indicate that the proposed method can provide reliable PIs for the generation flow of BFG and it exhibits shorter computing time than the stochastic based one.

Cycle temporal algorithm-based multivariate statistical methods for fault diagnosis in chemical processes

Multivariate statistical process monitoring methods are often used in chemical process fault diagnosis.In this article,(I)the cycle temporal algorithm(CTA)combined with the dynamic kernel principal component analysis(DKPCA)and the multiway dynamic kernel principal component analysis(MDKPCA)fault detection algorithms are proposed,which are used for continuous and batch process fault detections,respectively.In addition,(II)a fault variable identification model based on reconstructed-based contribution(RBC)model that paves the way for determining the cause of the fault are proposed.The proposed fault diagnosis model was applied to Tennessee Eastman(TE)process and penicillin fermentation process for fault diagnosis.And compare with other fault diagnosis methods.The results show that the proposed method has better detection effects than other methods.Finally,the reconstruction-based contribution(RBC)model method is used to accurately locate the root cause of the fault and determine the fault path.