This study analyzes the economic and environmental impacts of a climate change measure in Japan using a single-country dynamic computable general equilibrium model with technological change as an endogenous variable. ...This study analyzes the economic and environmental impacts of a climate change measure in Japan using a single-country dynamic computable general equilibrium model with technological change as an endogenous variable. In this way, a comprehensive analysis of the relationships between climate change and its measures, technology, and economy has been done. The model uses technological change as the accumulation of knowledge capital that is derived from research and development investment. The study investigates the impacts of a climate change measure considering the use of emission permit revenue and technological change induced by the policy implementation in the Japanese economy. Simulation results show that there is compatibility between CO2 emission reduction and positive effects on GDP that depends on the ways of the revenue use and technological change induced by emission reduction. However, it is not possible to find the ways to realize positive effects on both GDP and welfare simultaneously in the study. The sensitivity analysis for the elasticity of substitution between knowledge capital and other inputs also confirms the obtained results.展开更多
There are three different orientations of the macroeconomic policies,namely,factor-expansion,prudent-continuation and structural-adjustment.The paper uses the dynamic CGE model to simulate the effects of the three dif...There are three different orientations of the macroeconomic policies,namely,factor-expansion,prudent-continuation and structural-adjustment.The paper uses the dynamic CGE model to simulate the effects of the three different orientations on the economy,and arrives at the following conclusions:while the factor-expansion policies can lead to growth of economic output,they also result in the further imbalance in the industrial structure and the "crowding-out effect" on the private investment.In addition,such growth is unsustainable in the long run;the growth of the industrial economy will decline rapidly to a lower level after reaching a certain high level.The prudent-continuation policies refer to the continuation of the current policies that sustain the current trends of the industrial economy,and such policies reduce the growth of the industrial economy to a lower level in the long run.The structural-adjustment policies reduce the economic output at the current stage;however,it can bring a gradual improvement of industrial structure and a balance of the supply and demand.In the long run,the optimized structure will improve the total factor productivity(TFP) and the production-possibility frontier,and thereby realize a longterm steady and rapid growth of the industrial economy.Four policy recommendations are proposed based on the simulation of the models,including taking the structural adjustment as the fundamental orientation of macroeconomic policies,lowering the "floor level" of economic growth with macro regulation,giving play to the fundamental role of market mechanism in structural adjustment and increasing the role of TFP in the growth of the industrial economy.展开更多
随着环境污染加剧,我国减排形势日益严峻,但目前资源政策设计过度关注社会经济影响,较少涉及减排和环境福利,不利于生态文明建设和社会可持续发展.本文构建动态可计算一般均衡模型(dynamic computable general equilibrium,简称动态CGE...随着环境污染加剧,我国减排形势日益严峻,但目前资源政策设计过度关注社会经济影响,较少涉及减排和环境福利,不利于生态文明建设和社会可持续发展.本文构建动态可计算一般均衡模型(dynamic computable general equilibrium,简称动态CGE模型),以煤炭资源税改革为研究对象模拟资源政策调整的长期影响,分别采用煤炭资源税率调整和资源价值补偿政策场景,探索资源政策调整对促进减排和改善环境福利的作用.研究表明:总体而言,资源政策调整有利于促进减排和环境福利,但不同政策方案设计产生的影响差异性较大;煤炭资源税率提高会在一定程度上抑制资源消费,提高资源利用效率和人均资源盈余,降低环境损失;而资源价值补偿政策实施将对我国环境质量改善产生积极作用,可以有效提高环境福利;因此,在减排和环境福利综合视角下,煤炭资源税改革必须注重资源政策方案设计的协调性和完整性,才能有效发挥资源政策对环境系统的有效引导和激励作用.展开更多
文摘This study analyzes the economic and environmental impacts of a climate change measure in Japan using a single-country dynamic computable general equilibrium model with technological change as an endogenous variable. In this way, a comprehensive analysis of the relationships between climate change and its measures, technology, and economy has been done. The model uses technological change as the accumulation of knowledge capital that is derived from research and development investment. The study investigates the impacts of a climate change measure considering the use of emission permit revenue and technological change induced by the policy implementation in the Japanese economy. Simulation results show that there is compatibility between CO2 emission reduction and positive effects on GDP that depends on the ways of the revenue use and technological change induced by emission reduction. However, it is not possible to find the ways to realize positive effects on both GDP and welfare simultaneously in the study. The sensitivity analysis for the elasticity of substitution between knowledge capital and other inputs also confirms the obtained results.
文摘There are three different orientations of the macroeconomic policies,namely,factor-expansion,prudent-continuation and structural-adjustment.The paper uses the dynamic CGE model to simulate the effects of the three different orientations on the economy,and arrives at the following conclusions:while the factor-expansion policies can lead to growth of economic output,they also result in the further imbalance in the industrial structure and the "crowding-out effect" on the private investment.In addition,such growth is unsustainable in the long run;the growth of the industrial economy will decline rapidly to a lower level after reaching a certain high level.The prudent-continuation policies refer to the continuation of the current policies that sustain the current trends of the industrial economy,and such policies reduce the growth of the industrial economy to a lower level in the long run.The structural-adjustment policies reduce the economic output at the current stage;however,it can bring a gradual improvement of industrial structure and a balance of the supply and demand.In the long run,the optimized structure will improve the total factor productivity(TFP) and the production-possibility frontier,and thereby realize a longterm steady and rapid growth of the industrial economy.Four policy recommendations are proposed based on the simulation of the models,including taking the structural adjustment as the fundamental orientation of macroeconomic policies,lowering the "floor level" of economic growth with macro regulation,giving play to the fundamental role of market mechanism in structural adjustment and increasing the role of TFP in the growth of the industrial economy.
文摘随着环境污染加剧,我国减排形势日益严峻,但目前资源政策设计过度关注社会经济影响,较少涉及减排和环境福利,不利于生态文明建设和社会可持续发展.本文构建动态可计算一般均衡模型(dynamic computable general equilibrium,简称动态CGE模型),以煤炭资源税改革为研究对象模拟资源政策调整的长期影响,分别采用煤炭资源税率调整和资源价值补偿政策场景,探索资源政策调整对促进减排和改善环境福利的作用.研究表明:总体而言,资源政策调整有利于促进减排和环境福利,但不同政策方案设计产生的影响差异性较大;煤炭资源税率提高会在一定程度上抑制资源消费,提高资源利用效率和人均资源盈余,降低环境损失;而资源价值补偿政策实施将对我国环境质量改善产生积极作用,可以有效提高环境福利;因此,在减排和环境福利综合视角下,煤炭资源税改革必须注重资源政策方案设计的协调性和完整性,才能有效发挥资源政策对环境系统的有效引导和激励作用.
