Dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network for COVID-19 forecasting

Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning models for epidemic forecasting,spatial and temporal variations are captured separately.A unified model is developed to cover all spatio-temporal relations.However,this measure is insufficient for modelling the complex spatio-temporal relations of infectious disease transmission.A dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network(DASTGN)is proposed based on attention mechanisms to improve prediction accuracy.In DASTGN,complex spatio-temporal relations are depicted by adaptively fusing the mixed space-time effects and dynamic space-time dependency structure.This dual-scale model considers the time-specific,space-specific,and direct effects of the propagation process at the fine-grained level.Furthermore,the model characterises impacts from various space-time neighbour blocks under time-varying interventions at the coarse-grained level.The performance comparisons on the three COVID-19 datasets reveal that DASTGN achieves state-of-the-art results with a maximum improvement of 17.092%in the root mean-square error and 11.563%in the mean absolute error.Experimental results indicate that the mechanisms of designing DASTGN can effectively detect some spreading characteristics of COVID-19.The spatio-temporal weight matrices learned in each proposed module reveal diffusion patterns in various scenarios.In conclusion,DASTGN has successfully captured the dynamic spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19,and considering multiple dynamic space-time relationships is essential in epidemic forecasting.

Research on the Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Forces of Green Spaces in the Central Urban Area of Zunyi City

Green space,as a medium for carrying out urban functions and guiding urban development,is becoming a scarce resource along with the urbanization process and the intensification of environmental problems.In the face of the spatial mismatch between high demand and low supply,it is of great significance to clarify the evolution mechanism of green space to undertake national spatial planning,protect the natural strategic resources in the urban fringe area,and promote the sustainable development of the“three living spaces.”The study focuses on the Zunyi City Center,selecting the 20 years of rapid development following its establishment as a city as the study period.It explores the dynamic evolution of green space and the main driving forces during different periods using remote-sensing image data.The study shows that from 2003 to 2023,the total scale of green space has an obvious decreasing trend along with the expansion of the urban built-up area.A large amount of arable land is being converted to construction land,resulting in a sudden decrease in arable land area.In the past 10 years,the comprehensive land use dynamics have accelerated.Still,the spatial difference has gradually narrowed,indicating that the overall development intensity of Zunyi City’s central urban area has increased.There is a gradual spread of the trend to the hilly areas.The limiting effect of the mountainous natural environment on the city’s development has gradually diminished under the superposition of external factors,such as economic development,industrial technological upgrading,and policy orientation so the importance of the effective protection and rational utilization of urban green space has become more prominent.

Modified Differential Evolution Algorithm for Solving Dynamic Optimization with Existence of Infeasible Environments

Dynamic constrained optimization is a challenging research topic in which the objective function and/or constraints change over time.In such problems,it is commonly assumed that all problem instances are feasible.In reality some instances can be infeasible due to various practical issues,such as a sudden change in resource requirements or a big change in the availability of resources.Decision-makers have to determine whether a particular instance is feasible or not,as infeasible instances cannot be solved as there are no solutions to implement.In this case,locating the nearest feasible solution would be valuable information for the decision-makers.In this paper,a differential evolution algorithm is proposed for solving dynamic constrained problems that learns from past environments and transfers important knowledge from them to use in solving the current instance and includes a mechanism for suggesting a good feasible solution when an instance is infeasible.To judge the performance of the proposed algorithm,13 well-known dynamic test problems were solved.The results indicate that the proposed algorithm outperforms existing recent algorithms with a margin of 79.40%over all the environments and it can also find a good,but infeasible solution,when an instance is infeasible.

Regional difference and dynamic evolution of development quality of power industry in China

To achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and maintain high-quality economic growth,China is currently striving to improve the quality of development of its power sector.In this regard,revealing the regional differences and evolutionary trends in the development quality of China’power sector has a high value to inspire the next improvement direction toward how to integrate regional power recourses to an overall optimization level.Motived by this purpose,this paper uses the entropy method to evaluate the com‐prehensive and subsystem indices of the development quality of the power industry,and reveals their re‐gional differences and evolutionary trends with the help of the Dagum Gini coefficient and Kernel density es‐timation methods.The findings show that:There are obvious regional differences in the development quality of China’s power industry,and the differences are steadily declining in all regions except the West.Regional differences are mainly derived from inter-regional differences,with the largest inter-regional differences in the East-Northeast region.Intra-regional differences show a distribution pattern of East>West>North‐east>Center.

Flow softening behavior and microstructure evolution of Al-5Zn-2Mg aluminum alloy during dynamic recovery

The flow stress behavior and microstructure development of Al-5Zn-2Mg （7005） aluminum alloy were studied by hot compression tests at deformation temperatures between 300-500 ＆#176;C and strain rates between 0.05-50 s-1. The deformed structures of the samples were observed by optical microscopy （OM）, transmission electron microscopy （TEM） and electron backscattering diffraction （EBSD） analysis. The calculated activation energy is 147 kJ/mol, which is very close to the activation energy for lattice self-diffusion in aluminum （142 kJ/mol）. Dynamic recovery is the dominant restoration mechanism during the deformation. At high strain rate of 50 s-1, temperature rise due to deformation heating leads to a significant flow softening. Microstructure observations indicated that the remaining softening after deformation heating correction at high strain rate and the softening observed at high temperature are associated with grain coarsening induced by grain boundary migration during dynamic recovery process.

Dynamic Development Characteristics and Driving Factors of High Quality Development Level in China’s Five Major Urban Agglomerations

High-quality development is the primary task of comprehensively building a socialist,modern country,as well as the primary task of building urban agglomerations in China.Based on the five development concepts,this paper used the entropy method to measure the High Quality Development Index(HQDI)of the five major urban agglomerations.The results showed that the HQDI of the five major urban agglomerations shows a fluctuating upward trend.First,using the Dagum Gini coefficient to explore the sources of HQDI development differences in urban agglomerations,we found that the main source of HQDI differences in urban agglomerations was inter-regional differences,while intra-regional differences were not important.Second,kernel density estimation was used to test the dynamic evolution trend of HQDI within urban agglomerations.There was a polarisation phenomenon in the HQDI of urban agglomerations,such as the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.But overall,the degree of imbalance had decreased.Third,using geographic detectors to examine the driving factors of HQDI in urban agglomerations,we found that the main driving forces for improving HQDI in urban agglomerations were economic growth,artificial intelligence technology and fiscal decentralisation.All the interaction factors had greater explanatory power for the spatial differentiation of HQDI,which can be divided into two types:two-factor improvement and non-linear improvement.This study is conducive to improving and enriching the theoretical system for evaluating the high quality development of urban agglomerations,and provides policy references for promoting the high quality development of urban agglomerations.

Uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion based on coupled mechanism—motor dynamic model for ammunition delivery system

In this paper,a dynamic modeling method of motor driven electromechanical system is presented,and the uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion is investigated based on this method.The main contribution is to propose a novel mechanism-motor coupling dynamic modeling method,in which the relationship between mechanism motion and motor rotation is established according to the geometric coordination of the system.The advantages of this include establishing intuitive coupling between the mechanism and motor,facilitating the discussion for the influence of both mechanical and electrical parameters on the mechanism,and enabling dynamic simulation with controller to take the randomness of the electric load into account.Dynamic simulation considering feedback control of ammunition delivery system is carried out,and the feasibility of the model is verified experimentally.Based on probability density evolution theory,we comprehensively discuss the effects of system parameters on mechanism motion from the perspective of uncertainty quantization.Our work can not only provide guidance for engineering design of ammunition delivery mechanism,but also provide theoretical support for modeling and uncertainty quantification research of mechatronics system.

A novel refined dynamic model of high-speed maglev train-bridge coupled system for random vibration and running safety assessment

Running safety assessment and tracking irregularity parametric sensitivity analysis of high-speed maglev train-bridge system are of great concern,especially need perfect refinement models in which all properties can be well characterized based on various stochastic excitations.A three-dimensional refined spatial random vibration analysis model of high-speed maglev train-bridge coupled system is established in this paper,in which multi-source uncertainty excitation can be considered simultaneously,and the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is adopted to reveal the system-specific uncertainty dynamic characteristic.The motion equation of the maglev vehicle model is composed of multi-rigid bodies with a total 210-degrees of freedom for each vehicle,and a refined electromagnetic force-air gap model is used to account for the interaction and coupling effect between the moving train and track beam bridges,which are directly established by using finite element method.The model is proven to be applicable by comparing with Monte Carlo simulation.By applying the proposed stochastic framework to the high maglev line,the random dynamic responses of maglev vehicles running on the bridges are studied for running safety and stability assessment.Moreover,the effects of track irregularity wavelength range under different amplitude and running speeds on the coupled system are investigated.The results show that the augmentation of train speed will move backward the sensitive wavelength interval,and track irregularity amplitude influences the response remarkably in the sensitive interval.

EVOLUTION OF DYNAMIC GAMES AND BACKWARD INDUCTION

As an efficient method of solving subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium,the backward induction is analyzed from an evolutionary point of view in this paper,replacing a player with a population and turning a game into a population game,which shows that equilibrium of a perfect information game is the unique evolutionarily stable outcome for dynamic models in the limit.

Distributional dynamic and trend evolution of China's agricultural carbon emissions-an analysis on panel data of 31 provinces from 2002 to 2011

Researching the dynamic distribution characteristics and trend evolution of agricultural carbon emissions is of considerable significance in formulating an effective agricultural carbon reduction policy.Based on measurement of agricultural carbon emissions of 31 provinces over the period 2002-2011,the study observed regional differences and the dynamic evolution of distribution of agricultural carbon emissions using agricultural carbon intensity as the indicator,accompanied by Gini coefficients and the kernel density estimation method.The results demonstrate first that agricultural carbon emissions for China show an obvious nonequilibrium nature in regard to spatial distribution.According to the differences in agricultural carbon emissions dynamic trends,we divided the 31 regions into four types- continuous decline,fluctuating decline,continuous increase,and fluctuating increase.Further,agricultural carbon emissions intensity showed a downward trend with significant differences in the research areas.Second,the gap in spatial distribution of national agricultural carbon emissions is gradually expanding based on the results calculated by Gini coefficient.From the perception of regional differences in agricultural carbon emissions,the eastern region showed an average level,the gap was more obvious in the central region,while western region showed a trend of fluctuating downward.Third,according to estimation by kernel density,the regional disparity in agricultural carbon emissions had a downward,but limited,trend.In regard to agricultural carbon emissions over the three areas,the regional gap not only tended to decrease but also showed a "four way" differentiation phenomenon in the eastern region.The difference in the central region difference was narrower.On the whole,the gap for the western region reduced steadily over a small range.

Experimental investigation on failure process and spatio-temporal evolution of rockburst in granite with a prefabricated circular hole

To study the mechanism of rockburst and its spatio-temporal evolution criterion,a rockburst simulation experiment was performed on granite specimens,each with a prefabricated circular hole,under different lateral loads.Using micro camera,acoustic emission(AE)system,and infrared thermal imager,the AE characteristics and thermal radiation temperature migration were studied during the rockburst process.Then,the failure mode and damage evolution of the surrounding rock were analyzed.The results demonstrate that increasing the lateral load can first increase and then reduce the bearing capacity of the hole.In this experiment,the hole failure process could be divided into four periods:quiet,particle ejection,stability failure and collapse.Correspondingly,the AE signals evolved from a calm stage,to have intermittent appearance;then,they were continuous with a sudden increase,and finally increased dramatically.The failure of the surrounding rock was mainly tensile failure,while shear failure tended to first increase and then decrease.Meanwhile,damage to the hole increased gradually during the particle ejection period,whereas damage to the rockburst mainly occurred in the stability failure period.The thermal radiation temperature migration exhibited warming in shallow parts,inward expansion,cooling in the shallow parts with free surface heating,inward expansion,a sudden rise in temperature of the rockburst pits,and finally specimen failure.The initial reinforcement support should fully contribute to surface support.Furthermore,an appropriate tensile capacity and good energy absorption capacity should be established in support systems for high-stress roadways.

GLOBAL VIEW OF MICROSTRUCTURAL EVOLUTION:ENERGETICS,KINETICS AND DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS

An evolving material structure is in a non-equilibrium state, with free energy expressed by the generalized coordinates. A global approach leads to robust computations for the generalized thermodynamic forces. Those forces drive various kinetic processes, causing dissipation at spots, along curves, surfaces and interfaces, and within volumetric regions. The actual evolution path, and therefore the final equilibrium state, is determined by the energetics and kinetics. A virtual work principle Links the free energy landscape and the kinetic processes, and assigns a viscous environment to every point on the landscape. The approach leads to a dynamical system that governs the evolution of generalized coordinates. The microstructural evolution is globally characterized by a basin map in the coordinate space; and by a diversity map and a variety map in the parameter space. The control of basin boundaries raises the issue of energetic and kinetic bifurcations. The variation of basin boundaries under different sets of controlling parameters provides an analytical way to plot the diversity maps of structural evolution.

Dynamical characteristics of geomorphologic evolution of the basins covered by Pisha-sandstone in the eastern wing of the Ordos Plateau, China

There are several basins with high sediment yield in the Pisha-sandstone covering area of the east wing of the Ordos Plateau. Due to the lack of targeted research on the dynamical characteristics of geomorphic evolution that plays an important role in the sand production, this paper analyzed the tectonic activity intensity and erosion characteristics of the area. The results show that the intensity of tectonic activities in the area is generally moderateweak and shows an unconspicuous increase from north to south. Tectonic activity is manifested mainly in the form of uplift. The uplift rate in the lower reaches of each basin is greater than the erosion rate,which is prominent in the Kuyehe and the Tuweihe rivers. During the uplift of the regional topography,the most serious parts under erosion are generally concentrated in the upstream and midstream of basins. All longitudinal profiles of the basins have a shape close to an exponential function, which indicates that they are in the early stage of erosion evolution. The mechanisms of geomorphologic evolution of these basins have a great similarity. The conservative estimate of historical average erosion rate was less than 182–520 t/(km^2·yr), much less than that of the modern times. The average stream power values are typically distributed between 4 and102 W/m, with the larger being in the Kuyehe and the Tuweihe rivers and the smallest being in the Qinshuihe River. The maximum stream power value appears in the downstream reach, which should be the main reason for the particles being directly injected into the Yellow River. From the perspective of geomorphological evolution, the current soil and water conservation measures can hardly cure the erosion of these basins in the long run.

Spatio-temporal Evolution of Marine Fishery Industry Ecosystem Vulnerability in the Bohai Rim Region

The building of the ocean power strategy and the implementation of the blue agriculture plan urgently need to strengthen the sustainable development of marine fishery.Taking vulnerability as the starting point, this paper constructs the vulnerability index system of marine fishery industry ecosystem from the aspects of sensitivity and response capacity, and combines the entropy method with the Topsis to comprehensively analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of vulnerability of marine fishery industry ecosystem in the Bohai Rim Region from 2001 to 2015.The results show that: 1) In the time dimension, from 2001 to 2015, the vulnerability of the marine fishery industry ecosystem in the Bohai Rim Region shows a fluctuant and degressive trend;2) In the spatial dimension, the spatial distribution of the marine fishery industry ecosystem vulnerability in the Bohai Rim Region presents the gradient characteristics which shows high vulnerability in the east and low vulnerability in the west.According to the evolution track of the system’s vulnerability level, the vulnerability of the marine fishery industry ecosystem is divided into ‘declining’ and ‘stable’ types of evolutionary structures;3) The development of marine fishery in the Bohai Rim Region needs to be derived from the marine fishery’s ecological environment and the industrial development mode and structure, which can improve the marine environment remediation efforts, optimize the marine fishery industry structure, vigorously focus on pelagic fishery, and enhance the introduction of marine fishery’s science and technology talents, etc.Then, the marine fishery’s development in the Bohai Rim Region will be moving in the green, circular and sustainable direction.

Spatio-temporal evolution of ecologically-sustainable land use in China's Loess Plateau and detection of its influencing factors

Ecological land(Eco-land) is a basic resource for human beings to survive, and eco-land use is a strategy, a way to manage the land resource. So, ecologically-sustainable land use is essential for human beings to survive. This paper investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics and mechanisms of urban-rural eco-land using a new and innovative integration way based on eco-land change data in China's Loess Plateau(LP) prefecture level cities and explores factors of eco-land change. The spatial difference characteristic of eco-land among different level cities in the LP is that: small cities > big cities > middle cities. From 2009 to 2016, the eco-land in the LP from the perspective of urban-rural areas has changed significantly. Significant differences of urban-rural eco-land were identified among various urban growth types, and all the cities in the LP were further classified into four types based on eco-land change trend, with type A and B cities identified as the vital zone and major zone. Taking the eco-fragile region Loess Plateau(LP) as an example, our results demonstrated that the migrants to cities in LP could relieve ecological pressures and promote restoration of ecological vegetation. We have demonstrated that urbanization and the influence of government policy can be discerned through the quantification of the spatial-temporal change of eco-land and suggest that combining both urban and rural eco-land can support more effective land use decisions and provide theoretical basis for the practical application of urban planning, policy-making and sustainable development. What's more, governments should strive to population mobility and restore vegetation to sustain this fragile ecological environment.

Hydrochemical Dynamic Characteristics and Evolution of Underground Brine in the Mahai Salt Lake of the Qaidam Basin Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The mineral rock salts present in the Mahai Salt Lake of the Qaidam basin exhibit high solubilities in water. In addition, the multicomponent underground brine exhibits a high salinity and is easily precipitated. In the natural state, brine transport in the brine layer is extremely slow, and the brine is in a relatively stable chemical equilibrium state with the rock salt media. However, during mining, both the seepage and the chemical fields fluctuate significantly, thereby disrupting the equilibrium and leading to variations in the chemical composition and dynamic characteristics of the brine. Therefore, we selected underground brine from the Mahai Salt Lake, collecting a total of 183 brine samples over three stages of mining（i.e., the early stage of underground brine extraction, the initial stage of mining, and the later stage of mining）. Using a range of analytical techniques, the chemical dynamics of the underground brine water and its evolution were systematically studied. We found that evaporation and enrichment were the main mechanisms of underground brine evolution in the Mahai Salt Lake, with cation exchange and mineral dissolution/precipitation being key factors in determining the dynamic characteristics and evolution of the brine.

Chemical process dynamic optimization based on hybrid differential evolution algorithm integrated with Alopex

To solve dynamic optimization problem of chemical process (CPDOP), a hybrid differential evolution algorithm, which is integrated with Alopex and named as Alopex-DE, was proposed. In Alopex-DE, each original individual has its own symbiotic individual, which consists of control parameters. Differential evolution operator is applied for the original individuals to search the global optimization solution. Alopex algorithm is used to co-evolve the symbiotic individuals during the original individual evolution and enhance the fitness of the original individuals. Thus, control parameters are self-adaptively adjusted by Alopex to obtain the real-time optimum values for the original population. To illustrate the whole performance of Alopex-DE, several varietal DEs were applied to optimize 13 benchmark functions. The results show that the whole performance of Alopex-DE is the best. Further, Alopex-DE was applied to solve 4 typical CPDOPs, and the effect of the discrete time degree on the optimization solution was analyzed. The satisfactory result is obtained.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation in Jungar Banner of China during 2000–2017

It is known that the exploitation of opencast coal mines has seriously damaged the environments in the semi-arid areas.Vegetation status can reliably reflect the ecological degeneration and restoration in the opencast mining areas in the semi-arid areas.Long-time series MODIS NDVI data are widely used to simulate the vegetation cover to reflect the disturbance and restoration of local ecosystems.In this study, both qualitative(linear regression method and coefficient of variation(CoV)) and quantitative(spatial buffer analysis, and change amplitude and the rate of change in the average NDVI) analyses were conducted to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation during 2000–2017 in Jungar Banner of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, at the large(Jungar Banner and three mine groups) and small(three types of functional areas: opencast coal mining excavation areas, reclamation areas and natural areas) scales.The results show that the rates of change in the average NDVI in the reclamation areas(20%–60%) and opencast coal mining excavation areas(10%–20%) were considerably higher than that in the natural areas(<7%).The vegetation in the reclamation areas experienced a trend of increase(3–5 a after reclamation)-decrease(the sixth year of reclamation)-stability.The vegetation in Jungar Banner has a spatial heterogeneity under the influences of mining and reclamation activities.The ratio of vegetation improvement area to vegetation degradation area in the west, southwest and east mine groups during 2000–2017 was 8:1, 20:1 and 33:1, respectively.The regions with the high CoV of NDVI above 0.45 were mainly distributed around the opencast coal mining excavation areas, and the regions with the CoV of NDVI above 0.25 were mostly located in areas with low(28.8%) and medium-low(10.2%) vegetation cover.The average disturbance distances of mining activities on vegetation in the three mine groups(west, southwest and east) were 800, 800 and 1000 m, respectively.The greater the scale of mining, the farther the disturbance distances of mining activities on vegetation.We conclude that vegetation reclamation will certainly compensate for the negative impacts of opencast coal mining activities on vegetation.Sufficient attention should be paid to the proportional allocation of plant species(herbs and shrubs) in the reclamation areas, and the restored vegetation in these areas needs to be protected for more than 6 a.Then, as the repair time increased, the vegetation condition of the reclamation areas would exceed that of the natural areas.

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of the High-quality Development of Provincial Tourism in China

Accelerating the promotion of high-quality development of tourism(HQDT) is of great significance to the sustainable development of tourism. This paper defined the concept of HQDT, and then built an evaluation system for HQDT measurement to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of China’s HQDT based on provincial panel data from 2010 to 2019, using Geodetector to explore the similarities and differences between driving factors of HQDT and tourism development scale(TDS). The results show that:1) Taking the development concepts of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing as the guidance, and considering the organic unity of quantity and quality, the evaluation index system of the HQDT consists of six dimensions of economic stability, innovation driving, coordination and linkage, green and sustainability, openness and cooperation, and sharing and harmony, which respectively represent the basis, momentum, means, orientation, direction and purpose of the HQDT;2) The level of China’s HQDT shows an upward trend, presenting the characteristics of eastern region > central region > western region > northeastern region in 2019. The regional differences in China’s HQDT show a downward trend, and the intra-regional differences have replaced the inter-regional differences as the main source of regional differences;3) China’s HQDT shows the characteristics of higher in the east and lower in the west along the Hu line, while the improvement speed of HQDT shows the characteristics of faster in the west and slower in the east, making the decline of east-west differentiation of China’s HQDT and the movement of the gravity center towards southwest;4) Both HQDT and TDS are obviously driven by tourism capital investment and regional consumption. In terms of differences, the HQDT is more driven by government guidance, innovation driving force, and opening up, while the main driving factors of TDS are more biased toward capital elements and hardware facilities, including informatization, tourism resource, traffic, and eco-environment.

Entrainment effects and the dynamical evolution of debris avalanche/flow on substrate materials

A pair of flumes with variable inclinations were employed to investigate the entrainment mechanics and dynamical evolution of a debris avalanche/flow. A fixed quantity of solid and water mixture was released from a constant elevation and accelerated along a higher chute to impact substrate materials with different water contents and particle size distributions in the lower chute. Two high-speed cameras, pore and earth pressure detecting devices, were placed in the substrate materials where severe scouring occurs in order to collect multiple measurements of dynamical and mechanical parameters. The entrainment dynamics were verified by geometrical analysis and quasi-static simulation. The results show that wet and fine materials that are placed in the lower chute with steeper slopes are easily entrained during debris flow initiation, the pattern of which can be described by Coulomb friction and the Mohr-Coulomb law. Elaborate measurements of dynamical parameters enable the results of an elementary computational framework to predict the time-dependent scouring depth ht, which provides insight into rapidly determining debris flow propagation. Finally, the post-entrainment dynamics were studied. The results indicate that the propagation and the amplification of debris flows along erodible beds are dominated by the velocity and the solid volume fraction of the mixed substrate, and the coarse particle group of the substrate is a key feature affected by momentum changes.