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Improving Simulation of a Tropical Cyclone Using Dynamical Initialization and Large-Scale Spectral Nudging: A Case Study of Typhoon Megi (2010) 被引量:12
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作者 王慧 王玉清 徐海明 《Acta meteorologica Sinica》 SCIE 2013年第4期455-475,共21页
In this study, an approach combining dynamical initialization and large-scale spectral nudging is proposed to achieve improved numerical simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs), including track, structure, intensity,... In this study, an approach combining dynamical initialization and large-scale spectral nudging is proposed to achieve improved numerical simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs), including track, structure, intensity, and their changes, based on the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model. The effectiveness of the approach has been demonstrated with a case study of Typhoon Megi (2010). The ARW-WRF model with the proposed approach realistically reproduced many aspects of Typhoon Megi in a 7-day-long simulation. In particular, the model simulated quite well not only the storm track and intensity changes but also the structure changes before, during, and after its landfall over the Luzon Island in the northern Philippines, as well as after it reentered the ocean over the South China Sea (SCS). The results from several sensitivity experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach is quite effective and ideal for achieving realistic simulations of real TCs, and thus is useful for understanding the TC inner-core dynamics, and structure and intensity changes. 展开更多
关键词 dynamical initialization large-scale spectral nudging
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持续性强降水的区域模式动力中期预报研究 被引量:5
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作者 王东海 赵艳风 翟盘茂 《气象学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2019年第1期1-14,共14页
持续性强降水及其次生灾害给人民的生产和生活造成严重影响,延伸其模式动力预报能力对防灾、减灾具有重要意义。随着对持续性强降水过程形成机理及模式动力中期预报认识的不断提高,以减小模式初始条件误差、边界条件误差以及内场预报误... 持续性强降水及其次生灾害给人民的生产和生活造成严重影响,延伸其模式动力预报能力对防灾、减灾具有重要意义。随着对持续性强降水过程形成机理及模式动力中期预报认识的不断提高,以减小模式初始条件误差、边界条件误差以及内场预报误差为目标提出了一系列动力中期预报技术方法,主要包括:针对边界条件提出低通滤波技术方案,改进了5 d以上的环流及降水预报;针对模式预报内场进行谱逼近技术试验,对提前3—7 d的小雨以上量级的降水预报改进明显;针对初始条件进行多尺度混合更新初值技术预报试验,融合全球预报的大尺度场及区域模式预报的中小尺度场进行15 d预报,明显提高了50及100 mm以上的持续性累积降水预报时效。 展开更多
关键词 持续性强降水 区域模式动力中期预报 侧边界滤波 谱逼近 更新初值
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