Evaluation of Serum Anti-Müllerian Hormone (AMH) Values for 28,016 Bulgarian Women: Prognostic Statistical Model of Age Specific AMH Declining

The present study aims to establish a relationship between serum AMH levels and age in a large group of women living in Bulgaria, as well as to establish reference age-specific AMH levels in women that would serve as an initial estimate of ovarian age. A total of 28,016 women on the territory of the Republic of Bulgaria were tested for serum AMH levels with a median age of 37.0 years (interquartile range 32.0 to 41.0). For women aged 20 - 29 years, the Bulgarian population has relatively high median levels of AMH, similar to women of Asian origin. For women aged 30 - 34 years, our results are comparable to those of women living in Western Europe. For women aged 35 - 39 years, our results are comparable to those of women living in the territory of India and Kenya. For women aged 40 - 44 years, our results were lower than those for women from the Western European and Chinese populations, close to the Indian and higher than Korean and Kenya populations, respectively. Our results for women of Bulgarian origin are also comparable to US Latina women at age 30, 35 and 40 ages. On the base on constructed a statistical model to predicting the decline in AMH levels at different ages, we found non-linear structure of AMH decline for the low AMH 3.5) the dependence of the decline of AMH on age was confirmed as linear. In conclusion, we evaluated the serum level of AMH in Bulgarian women and established age-specific AMH percentile reference values based on a large representative sample. We have developed a prognostic statistical model that can facilitate the application of AMH in clinical practice and the prediction of reproductive capacity and population health.

Comparative Analysis of Statistical Thickness Models for the Determination of the External Specific Surface and the Surface of the Micropores of Materials: The Case of a Clay Concrete Stabilized Using Sugar Cane Molasses

In this work, four empirical models of statistical thickness, namely the models of Harkins and Jura, Hasley, Carbon Black and Jaroniec, were compared in order to determine the textural properties (external surface and surface of micropores) of a clay concrete without molasses and clay concretes stabilized with 8%, 12% and 16% molasses. The results obtained show that Hasley’s model can be used to obtain the external surfaces. However, it does not allow the surface of the micropores to be obtained, and is not suitable for the case of simple clay concrete (without molasses) and for clay concretes stabilized with molasses. The Carbon Black, Jaroniec and Harkins and Jura models can be used for clay concrete and stabilized clay concrete. However, the Carbon Black model is the most relevant for clay concrete and the Harkins and Jura model is for molasses-stabilized clay concrete. These last two models augur well for future research.

An Application of the Adjoint Method to a Statistical-Dynamical Tropical-Cyclone Prediction Model （SD-90）Ⅱ：Real Tropical Cyclone Cases

In the first paper in this series, a variational data assimilation of ideal tropical cyclone （TC） tracks was performed for the statistical-dynamical prediction model SD-90 by the adjoint method, and a prediction of TC tracks was made with good accuracy for tracks containing no sharp turns. In the present paper, the cases of real TC tracks are studied. Due to the complexity of TC motion, attention is paid to the diagnostic research of TC motion. First, five TC tracks are studied. Using the data of each entire TC track, by the adjoint method, five TC tracks are fitted well, and the forces acting on the TCs are retrieved. For a given TC, the distribution of the resultant of the retrieved force and Coriolis force well matches the corresponding TC track, i.e., when a TC turns, the resultant of the retrieved force and Coriolis force acts as a centripetal force, which means that the TC indeed moves like a particle; in particular, for TC 9911, the clockwise looping motion is also fitted well. And the distribution of the resultant appears to be periodic in some cases. Then, the present method is carried out for a portion of the track data for TC 9804, which indicates that when the amount of data for a TC track is sufficient, the algorithm is stable. And finally, the same algorithm is implemented for TCs with a double-eyewall structure, namely Bilis （2000） and Winnie （1997）, and the results prove the applicability of the algorithm to TCs with complicated mesoscale structures if the TC track data are obtained every three hours.

A Hybrid Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling of Air Temperature over Scandinavia Using the WRF Model

An accurate simulation of air temperature at local scales is crucial for the vast majority of weather and climate applications.In this work,a hybrid statistical–dynamical downscaling method and a high-resolution dynamical-only downscaling method are applied to daily mean,minimum and maximum air temperatures to investigate the quality of localscale estimates produced by downscaling.These two downscaling approaches are evaluated using station observation data obtained from the Finnish Meteorological Institute over a near-coastal region of western Finland.The dynamical downscaling is performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model,and the statistical downscaling method implemented is the Cumulative Distribution Function-transform(CDF-t).The CDF-t is trained using 20 years of WRF-downscaled Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data over the region at a 3-km spatial resolution for the central month of each season.The performance of the two methods is assessed qualitatively,by inspection of quantile-quantile plots,and quantitatively,through the Cramer-von Mises,mean absolute error,and root-mean-square error diagnostics.The hybrid approach is found to provide significantly more skillful forecasts of the observed daily mean and maximum air temperatures than those of the dynamical-only downscaling(for all seasons).The hybrid method proves to be less computationally expensive,and also to give more skillful temperature forecasts(at least for the Finnish near-coastal region).

ON THE MECHANISM OF TURBULENT COHERENT STRUCTURE (III)──A STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICALMODEL OF COHERENT STRUCTURE AND ITSHEAT TRANSFER MECHANISM

Following Tsai & Ma[1] and Tsai & Liu[2], a statistical and dynamical near-wall turbulent coherent structural model with separate consideration of two different portions:locally generated and upstream-transported large eddies has been established.With this model, heat transfer in a fully developed open channel in the absence of pressure gradient is numerically simulated. Database of fluctuations of velocity and temperature has also been set. Numerical analysis shows the existence of high-low temperature streak caused by near-wall coherent structure and its swing in the lateral direction.Numerical results are in accordance with the computations and experimental results of other researchers.

Studies of Climate Change with Statistical-Dynamical Models: A Review

The cause-effect relationship is not always possible to trace in GCMs because of the simultaneous inclusion of several highly complex physical processes. Furthermore, the inter-GCM differences are large and there is no simple way to reconcile them. So, simple climate models, like statistical-dynamical models (SDMs), appear to be useful in this context. This kind of models is essentially mechanistic, being directed towards understanding the dependence of a particular mechanism on the other parameters of the problem. In this paper, the utility of SDMs for studies of climate change is discussed in some detail. We show that these models are an indispensable part of hierarchy of climate models.

Time-domain dynamic constitutive model suitable for mucky soil site seismic response

Soil nonlinear behavior displays noticeable effects on the site seismic response.This study proposes a new functional expression of the skeleton curve to replace the hyperbolic skeleton curve.By integrating shear modulus and combining the dynamic skeleton curve and the damping degradation coefficient,the constitutive equation of the logarithmic dynamic skeleton can be obtained,which considers the damping effect in a soil dynamics problem.Based on the finite difference method and the multi-transmitting boundary condition,a 1D site seismic response analysis program called Soilresp1D has been developed herein and used to analyze the time-domain seismic response in three types of sites.At the same time,this study also provides numerical simulation results based on the hyperbolic constitutive model and the equivalent linear method.The results verify the rationality of the new soil dynamic constitutive model.It can analyze the mucky soil site nonlinear seismic response,reflecting the deformation characteristics and damping effect of the silty soil.The hysteresis loop area is more extensive,and the residual strain is evident.

Dynamically triggered seismicity on a tectonic scale:A review

Earthquakes triggered by dynamic disturbances have been confirmed by numerous observations and experiments.In the past several decades,earthquake triggering has attracted increasing attention of scholars in relation to exploring the mechanism of earthquake triggering,earthquake prediction,and the desire to use the mechanism of earthquake triggering to reduce,prevent,or trigger earthquakes.Natural earthquakes and large‐scale explosions are the most common sources of dynamic disturbances that trigger earthquakes.In the past several decades,some models have been developed,including static,dynamic,quasi‐static,and other models.Some reviews have been published,but explosiontriggered seismicity was not included.In recent years,some new results on earthquake triggering have emerged.Therefore,this paper presents a new review to reflect the new results and include the content of explosion‐triggered earthquakes for the reference of scholars in this area.Instead of a complete review of the relevant literature,this paper primarily focuses on the main aspects of dynamic earthquake triggering on a tectonic scale and makes some suggestions on issues that need to be resolved in this area in the future.

A Neural-network-based Alternative Scheme to Include Nonhydrostatic Processes in an Atmospheric Dynamical Core

Here,a nonhydrostatic alternative scheme(NAS)is proposed for the grey zone where the nonhydrostatic impact on the atmosphere is evident but not large enough to justify the necessity to include an implicit nonhydrostatic solver in an atmospheric dynamical core.The NAS is designed to replace this solver,which can be incorporated into any hydrostatic models so that existing well-developed hydrostatic models can effectively serve for a longer time.Recent advances in machine learning(ML)provide a potential tool for capturing the main complicated nonlinear-nonhydrostatic relationship.In this study,an ML approach called a neural network(NN)was adopted to select leading input features and develop the NAS.The NNs were trained and evaluated with 12-day simulation results of dry baroclinic-wave tests by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.The forward time difference of the nonhydrostatic tendency was used as the target variable,and the five selected features were the nonhydrostatic tendency at the last time step,and four hydrostatic variables at the current step including geopotential height,pressure in two different forms,and potential temperature,respectively.Finally,a practical NAS was developed with these features and trained layer by layer at a 20-km horizontal resolution,which can accurately reproduce the temporal variation and vertical distribution of the nonhydrostatic tendency.Corrected by the NN-based NAS,the improved hydrostatic solver at different horizontal resolutions can run stably for at least one month and effectively reduce most of the nonhydrostatic errors in terms of system bias,anomaly root-mean-square error,and the error of the wave spatial pattern,which proves the feasibility and superiority of this scheme.

Characterization and identification towards dynamic-based electrical modeling of lithium-ion batteries

Lithium-ion batteries are widely recognized as a crucial enabling technology for the advancement of electric vehicles and energy storage systems in the grid.The design of battery state estimation and control algorithms in battery management systems is usually based on battery models,which interpret crucial battery dynamics through the utilization of mathematical functions.Therefore,the investigation of battery dynamics with the purpose of battery system identification has garnered considerable attention in the realm of battery research.Characterization methods in terms of linear and nonlinear response of lithium-ion batteries have emerged as a prominent area of study in this field.This review has undertaken an analysis and discussion of characterization methods,with a particular focus on the motivation of battery system identification.Specifically,this work encompasses the incorporation of frequency domain nonlinear characterization methods and dynamics-based battery electrical models.The aim of this study is to establish a connection between the characterization and identification of battery systems for researchers and engineers specialized in the field of batteries,with the intention of promoting the advancement of efficient battery technology for real-world applications.

Dynamic response of mountain tunnel,bridge,and embankment along the Sichuan-Tibet transportation corridor to active fault based on model tests

The Sichuan-Tibet transportation corridor is prone to numerous active faults and frequent strong earthquakes.While extensive studies have individually explored the effect of active faults and strong earthquakes on different engineering structures,their combined effect remains unclear.This research employed multiple physical model tests to investigate the dynamic response of various engineering structures,including tunnels,bridges,and embankments,under the simultaneous influence of cumulative earthquakes and stick-slip misalignment of an active fault.The prototype selected for this study was the Kanding No.2 tunnel,which crosses the Yunongxi fault zone within the Sichuan-Tibet transportation corridor.The results demonstrated that the tunnel,bridge,and embankment exhibited amplification in response to the input seismic wave,with the amplification effect gradually decreasing as the input peak ground acceleration(PGA)increased.The PGAs of different engineering structures were weakened by the fault rupture zone.Nevertheless,the misalignment of the active fault may decrease the overall stiffness of the engineering structure,leading to more severe damage,with a small contribution from seismic vibration.Additionally,the seismic vibration effect might be enlarged with the height of the engineering structure,and the tunnel is supposed to have a smaller PGA and lower dynamic earth pressure compared to bridges and embankments in strong earthquake zones crossing active faults.The findings contribute valuable insights for evaluating the dynamic response of various engineering structures crossing an active fault and provide an experimental reference for secure engineering design in the challenging conditions of the Sichuan-Tibet transportation corridor.

Influence of Various Earth-Retaining Walls on the Dynamic Response Comparison Based on 3D Modeling

The present work aims to assess earthquake-induced earth-retaining(ER)wall displacement.This study is on the dynamics analysis of various earth-retaining wall designs in hollow precast concrete panels,reinforcement concrete facing panels,and gravity-type earth-retaining walls.The finite element(FE)simulations utilized a 3D plane strain condition to model full-scale ER walls and numerous nonlinear dynamics analyses.The seismic performance of differentmodels,which includes reinforcement concrete panels and gravity-type and hollowprecast concrete ER walls,was simulated and examined using the FE approach.It also displays comparative studies such as stress distribution,deflection of the wall,acceleration across the wall height,lateral wall displacement,lateral wall pressure,and backfill plastic strain.Three components of the created ER walls were found throughout this research procedure.One is a granular reinforcement backfill,while the other is a wall-facing panel and base foundation.The dynamic response effects of varied earth-retaining walls have also been studied.It was discovered that the facing panel of the model significantly impacts the earthquake-induced displacement of ER walls.The proposed analytical model’s validity has been evaluated and compared with the reinforcement concrete facing panels,gravity-type ER wall,scientifically available data,and American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials(AASHTO)guidelines results based on FE simulation.The results of the observations indicate that the hollow prefabricated concrete ER wall is the most feasible option due to its lower displacement and high-stress distribution compared to the two types.The methodology and results of this study establish standards for future analogous investigations and professionals,particularly in light of the increasing computational capabilities of desktop computers.

Computational Fluid Dynamics Approach for Predicting Pipeline Response to Various Blast Scenarios: A Numerical Modeling Study

Recent industrial explosions globally have intensified the focus in mechanical engineering on designing infras-tructure systems and networks capable of withstanding blast loading.Initially centered on high-profile facilities such as embassies and petrochemical plants,this concern now extends to a wider array of infrastructures and facilities.Engineers and scholars increasingly prioritize structural safety against explosions,particularly to prevent disproportionate collapse and damage to nearby structures.Urbanization has further amplified the reliance on oil and gas pipelines,making them vital for urban life and prime targets for terrorist activities.Consequently,there is a growing imperative for computational engineering solutions to tackle blast loading on pipelines and mitigate associated risks to avert disasters.In this study,an empty pipe model was successfully validated under contact blast conditions using Abaqus software,a powerful tool in mechanical engineering for simulating blast effects on buried pipelines.Employing a Eulerian-Lagrangian computational fluid dynamics approach,the investigation extended to above-surface and below-surface blasts at standoff distances of 25 and 50 mm.Material descriptions in the numerical model relied on Abaqus’default mechanical models.Comparative analysis revealed varying pipe performance,with deformation decreasing as explosion-to-pipe distance increased.The explosion’s location relative to the pipe surface notably influenced deformation levels,a key finding highlighted in the study.Moreover,quantitative findings indicated varying ratios of plastic dissipation energy(PDE)for different blast scenarios compared to the contact blast(P0).Specifically,P1(25 mm subsurface blast)and P2(50 mm subsurface blast)showed approximately 24.07%and 14.77%of P0’s PDE,respectively,while P3(25 mm above-surface blast)and P4(50 mm above-surface blast)exhibited lower PDE values,accounting for about 18.08%and 9.67%of P0’s PDE,respectively.Utilising energy-absorbing materials such as thin coatings of ultra-high-strength concrete,metallic foams,carbon fiber-reinforced polymer wraps,and others on the pipeline to effectively mitigate blast damage is recommended.This research contributes to the advancement of mechanical engineering by providing insights and solutions crucial for enhancing the resilience and safety of underground pipelines in the face of blast events.

A novel approach to the dynamic response analysis of Euler-Bernoulli beams resting on a Winkler soil model and subjected to impact loads

This work presents a novel approach to the dynamic response analysis of a Euler-Bernoulli beam resting on a Winkler soil model and subjected to an impact loading.The approach considers that damping has much less importance in controlling the maximum response to impulsive loadings because the maximum response is reached in a very short time,before the damping forces can dissipate a significant portion of the energy input into the system.The development of two sine series solutions,relating to different types of impulsive loadings,one involving a single concentrated force and the other a distributed line load,are presented.This study revealed that when a simply supported Euler-Bernoulli beam,resting on a Winkler soil model,is subject to an impact load,the resulting vertical displacements,bending moments and shear forces produced along the span of the beam are considerably affected.In particular,the quantification of this effect is best observed,relative to the corresponding static solution,via an amplification factor.The computed impact amplification factors,for the sub-grade moduli used in this study,were in magnitude greater than 2,thus confirming the multiple-degree-of-freedom nature of the problem.

Hybrid Dynamic Variables-Dependent Event-Triggered Fuzzy Model Predictive Control

This article focuses on dynamic event-triggered mechanism(DETM)-based model predictive control(MPC) for T-S fuzzy systems.A hybrid dynamic variables-dependent DETM is carefully devised,which includes a multiplicative dynamic variable and an additive dynamic variable.The addressed DETM-based fuzzy MPC issue is described as a “min-max” optimization problem(OP).To facilitate the co-design of the MPC controller and the weighting matrix of the DETM,an auxiliary OP is proposed based on a new Lyapunov function and a new robust positive invariant(RPI) set that contain the membership functions and the hybrid dynamic variables.A dynamic event-triggered fuzzy MPC algorithm is developed accordingly,whose recursive feasibility is analysed by employing the RPI set.With the designed controller,the involved fuzzy system is ensured to be asymptotically stable.Two examples show that the new DETM and DETM-based MPC algorithm have the advantages of reducing resource consumption while yielding the anticipated performance.

Improving the accuracy of precipitation estimates in a typical inland arid area of China using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging approach

Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a typical inland arid area in China with a sparse and uneven distribution of meteorological stations,limited access to precipitation data,and significant water scarcity.Evaluating and integrating precipitation datasets from different sources to accurately characterize precipitation patterns has become a challenge to provide more accurate and alternative precipitation information for the region,which can even improve the performance of hydrological modelling.This study evaluated the applicability of widely used five satellite-based precipitation products(Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station(CHIRPS),China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD),Climate Prediction Center morphing method(CMORPH),Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record(PERSIANN-CDR),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA))and a reanalysis precipitation dataset(ECMWF Reanalysis v5-Land Dataset(ERA5-Land))in Xinjiang using ground-based observational precipitation data from a limited number of meteorological stations.Based on this assessment,we proposed a framework that integrated different precipitation datasets with varying spatial resolutions using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging(DBMA)approach,the expectation-maximization method,and the ordinary Kriging interpolation method.The daily precipitation data merged using the DBMA approach exhibited distinct spatiotemporal variability,with an outstanding performance,as indicated by low root mean square error(RMSE=1.40 mm/d)and high Person's correlation coefficient(CC=0.67).Compared with the traditional simple model averaging(SMA)and individual product data,although the DBMA-fused precipitation data were slightly lower than the best precipitation product(CMFD),the overall performance of DBMA was more robust.The error analysis between DBMA-fused precipitation dataset and the more advanced Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final(IMERG-F)precipitation product,as well as hydrological simulations in the Ebinur Lake Basin,further demonstrated the superior performance of DBMA-fused precipitation dataset in the entire Xinjiang region.The proposed framework for solving the fusion problem of multi-source precipitation data with different spatial resolutions is feasible for application in inland arid areas,and aids in obtaining more accurate regional hydrological information and improving regional water resources management capabilities and meteorological research in these regions.

Nonlinear dynamics of a circular curved cantilevered pipe conveying pulsating fluid based on the geometrically exact model

Due to the novel applications of flexible pipes conveying fluid in the field of soft robotics and biomedicine,the investigations on the mechanical responses of the pipes have attracted considerable attention.The fluid-structure interaction(FSI)between the pipe with a curved shape and the time-varying internal fluid flow brings a great challenge to the revelation of the dynamical behaviors of flexible pipes,especially when the pipe is highly flexible and usually undergoes large deformations.In this work,the geometrically exact model(GEM)for a curved cantilevered pipe conveying pulsating fluid is developed based on the extended Hamilton's principle.The stability of the curved pipe with three different subtended angles is examined with the consideration of steady fluid flow.Specific attention is concentrated on the large-deformation resonance of circular pipes conveying pulsating fluid,which is often encountered in practical engineering.By constructing bifurcation diagrams,oscillating shapes,phase portraits,time traces,and Poincarémaps,the dynamic responses of the curved pipe under various system parameters are revealed.The mean flow velocity of the pulsating fluid is chosen to be either subcritical or supercritical.The numerical results show that the curved pipe conveying pulsating fluid can exhibit rich dynamical behaviors,including periodic and quasi-periodic motions.It is also found that the preferred instability type of a cantilevered curved pipe conveying steady fluid is mainly in the flutter of the second mode.For a moderate value of the mass ratio,however,a third-mode flutter may occur,which is quite different from that of a straight pipe system.

Anisotropic dynamic permeability model for porous media

Based on the tortuous capillary network model,the relationship between anisotropic permeability and rock normal strain,namely the anisotropic dynamic permeability model(ADPM),was derived and established.The model was verified using pore-scale flow simulation.The uniaxial strain process was calculated and the main factors affecting permeability changes in different directions in the deformation process were analyzed.In the process of uniaxial strain during the exploitation of layered oil and gas reservoirs,the effect of effective surface porosity on the permeability in all directions is consistent.With the decrease of effective surface porosity,the sensitivity of permeability to strain increases.The sensitivity of the permeability perpendicular to the direction of compression to the strain decreases with the increase of the tortuosity,while the sensitivity of the permeability in the direction of compression to the strain increases with the increase of the tortuosity.For layered reservoirs with the same initial tortuosity in all directions,the tortuosity plays a decisive role in the relative relationship between the variations of permeability in all directions during pressure drop.When the tortuosity is less than 1.6,the decrease rate of horizontal permeability is higher than that of vertical permeability,while the opposite is true when the tortuosity is greater than 1.6.This phenomenon cannot be represented by traditional dynamic permeability model.After the verification by experimental data of pore-scale simulation,the new model has high fitting accuracy and can effectively characterize the effects of deformation in different directions on the permeability in all directions.

The impact of genotyping strategies and statistical models on accuracy of genomic prediction for survival in pigs

Background:Survival from birth to slaughter is an important economic trait in commercial pig productions.Increasing survival can improve both economic efficiency and animal welfare.The aim of this study is to explore the impact of genotyping strategies and statistical models on the accuracy of genomic prediction for survival in pigs during the total growing period from birth to slaughter.Results:We simulated pig populations with different direct and maternal heritabilities and used a linear mixed model,a logit model,and a probit model to predict genomic breeding values of pig survival based on data of individual survival records with binary outcomes(0,1).The results show that in the case of only alive animals having genotype data,unbiased genomic predictions can be achieved when using variances estimated from pedigreebased model.Models using genomic information achieved up to 59.2%higher accuracy of estimated breeding value compared to pedigree-based model,dependent on genotyping scenarios.The scenario of genotyping all individuals,both dead and alive individuals,obtained the highest accuracy.When an equal number of individuals(80%)were genotyped,random sample of individuals with genotypes achieved higher accuracy than only alive individuals with genotypes.The linear model,logit model and probit model achieved similar accuracy.Conclusions:Our conclusion is that genomic prediction of pig survival is feasible in the situation that only alive pigs have genotypes,but genomic information of dead individuals can increase accuracy of genomic prediction by 2.06%to 6.04%.

Adaptive Optimal Discrete-Time Output-Feedback Using an Internal Model Principle and Adaptive Dynamic Programming

In order to address the output feedback issue for linear discrete-time systems, this work suggests a brand-new adaptive dynamic programming(ADP) technique based on the internal model principle(IMP). The proposed method, termed as IMP-ADP, does not require complete state feedback-merely the measurement of input and output data. More specifically, based on the IMP, the output control problem can first be converted into a stabilization problem. We then design an observer to reproduce the full state of the system by measuring the inputs and outputs. Moreover, this technique includes both a policy iteration algorithm and a value iteration algorithm to determine the optimal feedback gain without using a dynamic system model. It is important that with this concept one does not need to solve the regulator equation. Finally, this control method was tested on an inverter system of grid-connected LCLs to demonstrate that the proposed method provides the desired performance in terms of both tracking and disturbance rejection.