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Development and validation of a prediction model for early screening of people at high risk for colorectal cancer 被引量:2
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作者 Ling-Li Xu Yi Lin +3 位作者 Li-Yuan Han Yue Wang Jian-Jiong Li Xiao-Yu Dai 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS 2024年第5期450-461,共12页
BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still... BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still not optimistic.In China,the incidence of CRC in the Yangtze River Delta region is increasing dramatically,but few studies have been conducted.Therefore,it is necessary to develop a simple and efficient early screening model for CRC.AIM To develop and validate an early-screening nomogram model to identify individuals at high risk of CRC.METHODS Data of 64448 participants obtained from Ningbo Hospital,China between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.The cohort comprised 64448 individuals,of which,530 were excluded due to missing or incorrect data.Of 63918,7607(11.9%)individuals were considered to be high risk for CRC,and 56311(88.1%)were not.The participants were randomly allocated to a training set(44743)or validation set(19175).The discriminatory ability,predictive accuracy,and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by constructing and analyzing receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration curves and by decision curve analysis.Finally,the model was validated internally using a bootstrap resampling technique.RESULTS Seven variables,including demographic,lifestyle,and family history information,were examined.Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR):1.03,95%confidence interval(CI):1.02-1.03,P<0.001],body mass index(BMI)(OR:1.07,95%CI:1.06-1.08,P<0.001),waist circumference(WC)(OR:1.03,95%CI:1.02-1.03 P<0.001),lifestyle(OR:0.45,95%CI:0.42-0.48,P<0.001),and family history(OR:4.28,95%CI:4.04-4.54,P<0.001)were the most significant predictors of high-risk CRC.Healthy lifestyle was a protective factor,whereas family history was the most significant risk factor.The area under the curve was 0.734(95%CI:0.723-0.745)for the final validation set ROC curve and 0.735(95%CI:0.728-0.742)for the training set ROC curve.The calibration curve demonstrated a high correlation between the CRC high-risk population predicted by the nomogram model and the actual CRC high-risk population.CONCLUSION The early-screening nomogram model for CRC prediction in high-risk populations developed in this study based on age,BMI,WC,lifestyle,and family history exhibited high accuracy. 展开更多
关键词 Colorectal cancer Early screening model High-risk population Nomogram model Questionnaire survey Dietary habit Living habit
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黄土地区沟谷型泥流单沟及区域预警
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作者 陈龙 余斌 《水土保持研究》 北大核心 2025年第2期191-197,共7页
[目的]提出黄土地区沟谷型泥流的单沟及区域预警模型,为黄土地区泥流预警提供参考。[方法]通过收集文献资料,对泥流形成的降雨条件、地形条件、地质条件数据进行了分析,采用通用泥石流预警方法演变的泥流预警模型对黄土部分地区泥流进... [目的]提出黄土地区沟谷型泥流的单沟及区域预警模型,为黄土地区泥流预警提供参考。[方法]通过收集文献资料,对泥流形成的降雨条件、地形条件、地质条件数据进行了分析,采用通用泥石流预警方法演变的泥流预警模型对黄土部分地区泥流进行了单沟及区域预警,并与基于临界降雨强度的预警方法对比。[结果]单沟预警中,泥流预警模型对黄土地区47次泥流事件进行预警的成功率约90%;区域预警中,泥流预警模型对西峰区、镇原县及延安市进行预警的成功率接近100%;利用综合降雨临界值对黄土地区泥流进行简便降雨预警的成功率约90%。[结论]采用泥流预警模型对黄土地区泥流进行单沟及区域预警相比于其他研究中基于临界降雨强度的预警方法考虑因素更全面,有更高的准确率,预警结果更细致。 展开更多
关键词 泥流 预警模型 临界降雨 单沟
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基于移动最小二乘法的阶跃型滑坡预警曲面模型
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作者 王伟 丁聪 +2 位作者 刘世藩 姜宇航 陈超 《河海大学学报(自然科学版)》 北大核心 2025年第1期95-102,120,共9页
基于移动最小二乘法搭建阶跃型滑坡预警曲面模型,以三峡库区王家坡滑坡监测数据为例构建预警模型并验证了该模型用于滑坡阶跃预警的可行性。该模型通过移动最小二乘法拟合滑坡累计位移-监测期次曲线,利用拟合曲线导数信息确定滑坡阶跃... 基于移动最小二乘法搭建阶跃型滑坡预警曲面模型,以三峡库区王家坡滑坡监测数据为例构建预警模型并验证了该模型用于滑坡阶跃预警的可行性。该模型通过移动最小二乘法拟合滑坡累计位移-监测期次曲线,利用拟合曲线导数信息确定滑坡阶跃变形区间,以区间二阶导数最大值点作为“类破坏点”获得当期降雨、前期降雨、位移速率阈值;根据“类破坏点”监测信息,利用移动最小二乘法建立滑坡阶跃变形发生的阈值曲面,以位移速率作为分级标准建立4级预警阈值曲面模型进行预警分析。王家坡滑坡验证结果表明,模型预警等级与滑坡实际位移情况相符,模型具有良好的预警效果,能实现高效准确的滑坡阶跃变形预警。 展开更多
关键词 降雨型滑坡 阶跃变形 预警模型 移动最小二乘法 王家坡滑坡
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“情指行”一体化实战运行机制完善路径
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作者 盛虎 宋福荣 《中国人民警察大学学报》 2025年第1期91-96,共6页
随着社会治安治理工作的顺利推进,各地公安机关把大数据智能化建设作为科技兴警的重要抓手,依托本区域警情特点,深入推进“情指行”一体化实战运行机制改革,积极创新,延伸拓展,取得一定成效。但由于缺乏系统理念,各区域标准不一,导致各... 随着社会治安治理工作的顺利推进,各地公安机关把大数据智能化建设作为科技兴警的重要抓手,依托本区域警情特点,深入推进“情指行”一体化实战运行机制改革,积极创新,延伸拓展,取得一定成效。但由于缺乏系统理念,各区域标准不一,导致各地发展进程不一致,工作机制还不够完善。因此,推进“情指行”一体化实战运行机制改革,重视研究开发预警系统,及时、有效地预防和处置各类警情,是响应和推进“建立完善‘专业+机制+大数据’新型警务运行模式,不断优化警务管理体制、运行机制,大力推进公安大数据智能化建设应用”的重要内容。研究构建以监测子系统、信息处理子系统、分析子系统、警报子系统及指令子系统为支撑的预警模型,并以人口变量为例深入分析预警模型的策略集合,以期对影响社会治安防控的各类信息进行深度发掘,发现数据背后的隐形规律并进行风险研判,实现对涉赌、涉黄、涉稳等人员的预测预判,针对不同风险级别发出预警指令,提升公安机关的风险防控能力。 展开更多
关键词 “情指行”一体化 实战运行机制 预警模型
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基于BISAP-HDL预警模型的层级护理对急性胰腺炎病情控制及心理应激的影响
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作者 刘洁羽 史伟伟 王双 《罕少疾病杂志》 2025年第1期173-175,共3页
目的 评估基于BISAP-HDL预警模型的层级护理对急性胰腺炎(AP)患者病情控制及心理应激的影响。方法 采取随机数字表法将2019年2月至2024年4月本院收治的AP患者(68例)分为对照组(n=34)与实验组(n=34)。对照组接受常规护理干预,实验组在对... 目的 评估基于BISAP-HDL预警模型的层级护理对急性胰腺炎(AP)患者病情控制及心理应激的影响。方法 采取随机数字表法将2019年2月至2024年4月本院收治的AP患者(68例)分为对照组(n=34)与实验组(n=34)。对照组接受常规护理干预,实验组在对照组基础上加用基于BISAP-HDL预警模型的层级护理干预。比较两组患者病情控制情况(腹痛消失时间、住院时间)、心理应激水平[采用自评焦虑量表(SAS)、抑郁自评量表(SDS)评估]及并发症发生情况。结果 实验组腹痛消失时间及住院时间明显短于对照组(P<0.05);相较于对照组,干预后实验组SDS、SAS评分及并发症总发生率更低(P<0.05)。结论 基于BISAP-HDL预警模型的层级护理可有效控制AP患者病情,减轻心理应激反应,降低并发症发生率。 展开更多
关键词 BISAP-HDL预警模型 层级护理 急性胰腺炎 病情控制 心理应激
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基于机器学习筛选共同性外斜视术后早期复发的风险因素及Nomogram预测模型的建立
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作者 谢婧 蒲丽 +3 位作者 王正静 胡红芳 冯亮 赵粟 《眼科新进展》 北大核心 2025年第2期115-119,共5页
目的分析共同性外斜视术后早期复发的相关风险因素,建立Nomogram预测模型。方法回顾性分析我院2015年10月至2021年10月收治的243例(486眼)共同性外斜视患者,按7 GA6FA 3的比例将其分为训练集(n=170)、验证集(n=73)。利用Lasso回归、Bor... 目的分析共同性外斜视术后早期复发的相关风险因素,建立Nomogram预测模型。方法回顾性分析我院2015年10月至2021年10月收治的243例(486眼)共同性外斜视患者,按7 GA6FA 3的比例将其分为训练集(n=170)、验证集(n=73)。利用Lasso回归、Boruta算法、随机森林算法筛选共同性外斜视术后早期复发的风险变量。通过Spearman相关性分析及膨胀因子(VIF)评估变量之间的共线性,利用多因素Cox回归建立Nomogram预测模型。对该模型在术后6个月、18个月、24个月的受试者工作曲线、校准曲线、临床决策曲线进行效能评价。结果通过3种机器学习方法:Lasso回归、Boruta算法、随机森林算法,在训练集及验证集的22个风险变量中筛选出6个可能导致斜视术后早期复发的重要变量:斜视类型、发病年龄、术前斜视度数、右眼最佳矫正视力(BCVA)、左眼BCVA、手术方式,6个变量之间不存在共线性(r<0.6,VIF<5)。多因素Cox回归发现,斜视类型(间歇性外斜视)、术前斜视度数、右眼BCVA、左眼BCVA、手术方式(单侧外直肌后徙术)是共同性外斜视术后早期复发的风险因素,并构建Nomogram预测模型。受试者工作曲线、校准曲线及临床决策曲线提示该预测模型具有较好的准确度、一致性及临床适用度。结论Nomogram预测模型能较好预测共同性外斜视患者术后的早期复发风险,为眼科医生对患者进行早期干预提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 共同性外斜视 早期复发 Nomogram预测模型 机器学习
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早期重症急性胰腺炎预测模型的构建
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作者 苏晓芳 王庆华 《护理研究》 北大核心 2025年第3期374-380,共7页
目的:分析重症急性胰腺炎早期发生的危险因素,构建预测模型。方法:回顾性收集2016年7月—2022年7月山东省某三级甲等医院住院治疗的900例急性胰腺炎病例资料,随机分成建模组630例(非重症急性胰腺炎组483例,重症急性胰腺炎组147例)和验证... 目的:分析重症急性胰腺炎早期发生的危险因素,构建预测模型。方法:回顾性收集2016年7月—2022年7月山东省某三级甲等医院住院治疗的900例急性胰腺炎病例资料,随机分成建模组630例(非重症急性胰腺炎组483例,重症急性胰腺炎组147例)和验证组270例。通过病案系统收集病人入院时一般资料、生命体征、24 h血清学指标。采用单因素和二元Logistic回归筛选重症急性胰腺炎发生的危险因素,建立Logistic回归预测模型和早期预测模型,并进行验证。结果:C-反应蛋白、α-羟丁酸脱氢酶、红细胞压积、腹腔积液、呼吸频率为重症急性胰腺炎早期发生独立预测因子,对独立预测因子建立Logistic预测模型,其受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积为0.938[95%CI(0.910,0.967)],灵敏度为93.75%,特异度为87.13%,通过ROC曲线计算独立预测因素最佳截断值为2.000,ROC曲线下面积为0.942,灵敏度为90.15%,特异度为87.43%,在验证组中,ROC曲线下面积为0.950,与床边指数(BISAP)评分、急性生理和慢性健康状况(APACHEⅡ)评分比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论:C-反应蛋白、α-羟丁酸脱氢酶、HCT、腹腔积液、呼吸频率为重症急性胰腺炎早期发生的独立预测因子,基于预测因子构建的早期预测模型特异性更高,有较好预测效果。 展开更多
关键词 急性胰腺炎 严重程度 早期预测 预测模型 影响因素
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基于模型的水稻高温热害风险评估与动态预警
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作者 江敏 王广伦 +3 位作者 李明璐 苗波 李明煊 石春林 《中国水稻科学》 北大核心 2025年第1期128-142,共15页
【目的】通过构建水稻高温热害预警系统与灾害风险评估体系,提高水稻高温热害灾损评估水平和防灾减灾能力。【方法】挑选福建省4个代表性水稻品种,在当地水稻易受高温热害的四个关键发育期进行高温控制试验,测定不同高温胁迫处理下水稻... 【目的】通过构建水稻高温热害预警系统与灾害风险评估体系,提高水稻高温热害灾损评估水平和防灾减灾能力。【方法】挑选福建省4个代表性水稻品种,在当地水稻易受高温热害的四个关键发育期进行高温控制试验,测定不同高温胁迫处理下水稻产量及其构成因素的变化。结合水稻发育期模型计算高温热害灾损率,进而构建水稻高温热害风险评估和预警系统。结合福建省近50年的气象资料,利用研发的系统计算水稻高温热害灾损率,划分出各稻区水稻关键发育期的热害风险等级。利用逐日气象数据进行水稻高温热害的单点和区域动态预警模拟,并利用种植样点的区域试验资料和气象产量计算出实际灾损,对模拟预警结果进行验证。【结果】福建省水稻高温热害风险评估结果显示,闽东南双季稻区的早稻以低风险为主,并且主要出现在早稻开花期,近50年热害发生频率小于30%;闽西北双季稻区的早稻以高风险和次高风险为主,其中开花期热害发生频率为68%~80%,灌浆期为62%~80%。闽西北山地单季稻区中稻发生高温热害低风险区分布最广,其中减数分裂期热害的发生频率小于38%,开花期小于26%。2020年12个代表性品种在福建省水稻高温热害单点动态预警系统中模拟,结果显示,闽东南双季稻区早稻发生重度高温热害的概率较高,灾损率为51.1%~55.4%;闽西北双季稻区早稻则遭遇轻度和中度高温热害,灾损率为12.1%~26.8%;闽西北山地单季稻区中稻发生中度热害概率较高,灾损率为18.2%~29.4%。2020年福建省区域预警模拟结果显示,种植早稻“T78优2155”的两个稻区内,重度热害地区主要集中在安溪、南安、同安、龙海等闽东南县区,灾损率为30.8%~41.6%,闽西北仅有将乐地区为重度热害,灾损率为31.0%;种植中稻“II优3301”的闽西北山地单季稻区内,光泽、政和、明溪、永安等地遭遇中度热害,灾损率为15.1%~21.7%。【结论】闽西北水稻种植区的早稻遭遇热害的风险均较闽东南地区更为严重。无论在空间还是时间变化上,系统模拟的灾损率与当地实际水稻生产的灾损率以及气象产量变化相契合,预警效果较好。 展开更多
关键词 水稻 模拟模型 灾损评估 风险区划 高温预警
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Studies on Molecular Mechanism of Human Early Cardiogenesis Using the Drosophila as a Model System 被引量:1
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作者 吴秀山 《Developmental and Reproductive Biology》 2002年第1期64-74,共11页
Recently,some of the genetic mechanisms of heart specification have been elucidated in Drosophila .However,genes involved in early cardiogenesis of human remain to be identified.Since the pathways that regulate ear... Recently,some of the genetic mechanisms of heart specification have been elucidated in Drosophila .However,genes involved in early cardiogenesis of human remain to be identified.Since the pathways that regulate early cardiac fate determination are conserved between Drosophila and vertebrates,flies can be used as a model test system to explore the genetic basis of cardiogenesis in human.In this project,about 3000 reccieve lethal gene lines were produced by P or EMS mutagenesis.With staining of antibodies against heart precussor cells of Drosophila ,about 200 lines were observed to show heart phenotype.In pilot studies of their function with RNAi technique,the RNAi phenotypes of several genes tested were observed,which were very similar to that of their mutants,showing heart tube defects or no heart precursors formation.Taking advantage of the advanced genetic information available in the Drosophila and human systems,we have identified about 50 human transcripts homologous to the Drosophila heart related gene candidates.Northern blot analysis for some of the human candidates showed that several genes were expressed in both adult and early embryonic tissues,which may help in the evaluation of candidate genes for human cardiogenesis.Our further experiments with transgenic flies generated with wild type and mutant forms of these candidate genes to examine for defects in cardiogenesis or cardiac function are under way.The candidate genes producing cardiac specific defects suggestive of similarities to the heart disease syndromes can then be pursued further as likely disease gene candidates.Such an approach is likely to provide a dramatic reduction of possible candidate genes,or to screen and identify mutations that may generate the disease in human. 展开更多
关键词 molecular mechanism human early cardiogenesis Drosophila model system
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肺癌早期诊断的研究进展
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作者 张燕 韩利梅 《齐齐哈尔医学院学报》 2025年第2期176-181,共6页
肺癌是全球范围内主要的致死性肿瘤之一,早期诊断、早期治疗是降低肺癌死亡率、提高生存率的最有效方法。近年来,研究者在探索肺癌早期诊断的特异性生物标志物和方法方面取得了显著进展。本文将对肺癌早期的筛查方法进行综述,涵盖影像... 肺癌是全球范围内主要的致死性肿瘤之一,早期诊断、早期治疗是降低肺癌死亡率、提高生存率的最有效方法。近年来,研究者在探索肺癌早期诊断的特异性生物标志物和方法方面取得了显著进展。本文将对肺癌早期的筛查方法进行综述,涵盖影像学诊断、病理学诊断、液体活检、人工智能、拉曼光谱分析及预测模型等多个方面,旨在为临床决策提供有益的参考。 展开更多
关键词 肺癌 早期诊断 肿瘤标志物 预测模型 人工智能
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全喉切除术后并发咽瘘的风险预测列线图模型的构建与验证
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作者 李琪 冀梦有 +2 位作者 高佳颖 李斐然 徐静 《中国眼耳鼻喉科杂志》 2025年第1期63-68,共6页
目的通过分析全喉切除术后患者发生咽瘘的影响因素,构建全喉切除术后并发咽瘘风险的列线图预测模型并验证其效能。方法选取2017年1月—2022年1月期间某三级甲等医院行全喉切除术的500例患者。通过lasso回归筛选预测因子,采用二元logisti... 目的通过分析全喉切除术后患者发生咽瘘的影响因素,构建全喉切除术后并发咽瘘风险的列线图预测模型并验证其效能。方法选取2017年1月—2022年1月期间某三级甲等医院行全喉切除术的500例患者。通过lasso回归筛选预测因子,采用二元logistic回归分析及R-4.3.1软件建立全喉切除术后发生咽瘘的风险预测列线图模型,采用受试者操作特征曲线(ROC曲线)、校准曲线评价列线图模型的区分度和精准度,采用拟合优度检验评价列线图模型的校准度,并对模型进行内部验证。结果糖尿病、术前放射治疗、术后鼻饲时间>14 d、体重指数(BMI)≥24 kg/m^(2)、术前气管切开、术前血红蛋白<120 g/L是全喉切除术后发生咽瘘的影响因素。模型的ROC曲线下面积为0.927,灵敏度和特异度分别为83.9%和88.2%,约登指数为0.721,拟合优度检验(HL检验)显示列线图模型预测值和实际观测值之间差异无统计学意义(χ^(2)=2.5231,P=0.9606)。结论成功构建全喉切除术后并发咽瘘的风险预测列线图模型,该模型能够科学有效地预测全喉切除术后患者并发咽瘘的概率,为临床医护人员及时识别全喉切除术发生咽瘘及预防干预提供借鉴及参考。 展开更多
关键词 全喉切除术 咽瘘 列线图 预测模型 预警
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华北克拉通东南缘徐淮地区940~890 Ma基性岩:岩石成因和地球动力学
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作者 张健 李怀坤 +4 位作者 张传林 田辉 周红英 钟焱 于建中 《地质学报》 北大核心 2025年第1期166-191,共26页
超大陆汇聚和裂解过程直接导致岩石圈物质组成和结构的显著变化,进而深刻影响地球深时大气圈、水圈和生物圈等表层环境系统。中元古代晚期至新元古代早期属于Rodinia超大陆聚合的关键时期,也是全球规模板块构造冷俯冲和超高压变质作用... 超大陆汇聚和裂解过程直接导致岩石圈物质组成和结构的显著变化,进而深刻影响地球深时大气圈、水圈和生物圈等表层环境系统。中元古代晚期至新元古代早期属于Rodinia超大陆聚合的关键时期,也是全球规模板块构造冷俯冲和超高压变质作用的起始阶段。由于以往报道华北克拉通在该时期岩浆-构造的记录稀少,因此与Rodinia超大陆的关联以及在Rodinia超大陆重建中的位置长期存在争议。最近研究表明,华北克拉通徐淮、大连地区以及朝鲜平南盆地广泛发育顺层侵入的辉绿岩床,与Rodinia超大陆有关。本文以徐淮盆地发育的基性岩床为代表,通过岩石学、同位素年代学和地球化学等分析手段,探究其成因和构造背景。辉绿岩床形成于新元古代早期940~890 Ma,持续时间长达~50 Ma,可分为940~920 Ma(高Ti,侵位于淮北群中部倪园组)和920~890 Ma(低Ti,侵位于淮北群上部望山组)两期。两类(期)辉绿岩的地球化学成分以拉斑质玄武岩为主,部分高Ti样品为碱性玄武岩。稀土元素配分右倾模式,轻稀土富集(La/Yb)N=2.5~8.6,Nb-Ta弱亏损Nb/La=0.63~1.12(大部分小于1),大离子亲石元素(如Rb、Ba)和高场强元素(如Zr、Hf、Ti)相对富集。高Ti样品的微量元素分馏程度高,与OIB近似;低Ti样品具有与CFB相似的地球化学属性。两类辉绿岩Sr-Nd-Hf-O同位素显示不均一性,高Ti样品的Nd-Hf同位素比低Ti样品亏损,全岩Nd与锆石Hf同位素轻微解耦。锆石重O同位素(δ^(18)O值为6‰)表明,两类辉绿岩源区的岩石圈地幔经历熔/流体交代,熔/流体来自于俯冲板片的脱水熔融。结合地层碎屑锆石所揭示的物源信息,华北克拉通新元古代早期沉积体系的碎屑岩源区由克拉通内部向外部迁移,且外来物质Hf同位素亏损,属于新生地壳,暗示盆地周围发育大规模与板块俯冲相关的弧岩浆。据此,本文认为华北地区中元古代晚期—新元古代早期的基性岩床与板块俯冲后撤或与大地幔楔作用有关。 展开更多
关键词 华北克拉通 中元古代晚期—新元古代早期 基性岩床 俯冲后撤和大地幔楔
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IgA肾病患者并发高尿酸血症的影响因素及其列线图预警模型构建
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作者 周杰 冼炜瑩 +1 位作者 李济填 曾今诚 《临床肾脏病杂志》 2025年第1期35-42,共8页
目的探究IgA肾病(IgA nephropathy,IgAN)患者并发高尿酸血症(hyperuricaemia,HUA)的影响因素并构建列线图预警模型。方法选取深圳大学总医院2020年12月1日至2023年12月1日收治的332例IgAN患者作为观察对象,按随机数字表法按比例(7∶3)... 目的探究IgA肾病(IgA nephropathy,IgAN)患者并发高尿酸血症(hyperuricaemia,HUA)的影响因素并构建列线图预警模型。方法选取深圳大学总医院2020年12月1日至2023年12月1日收治的332例IgAN患者作为观察对象,按随机数字表法按比例(7∶3)分为建模组(233例)与验证组(99例)。将建模组根据是否发生HUA分为HUA组和非HUA组。多因素Logistic回归分析IgAN患者发生HUA的危险因素。R软件构建预测IgAN患者发生HUA的列线图模型。绘制受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)评估预测IgAN患者发生HUA的列线图模型区分度;绘制校准曲线评估模型的一致性。使用临床决策曲线(decision curve analysis,DCA)对该模型的临床应用价值进行评估。结果本研究建模组233例患者中有79例发生HUA,发生率为33.91%。HUA组和非HUA组患者在男性(65.82%比47.40%)、体重指数(body mass index,BMI)[(24.67±4.52)kg/m^(2)比(22.28±3.17)kg/m^(2)]、高血压(43.04%比23.38%)、三酰甘油(triglyceride,TG)[(2.16±0.61)mmol/L比(1.72±0.30)mmol/L]、白细胞[(7.28±2.06)×10^(9)L比(5.75±1.52)×10^(9)L]、估算肾小球滤过率(estimated glomerular filtration rate,eGFR)[(66.93±19.85)mL·min^(-1)·(1.73 m^(2))-1比(86.42±22.37)mL·min^(-1)·(1.73 m^(2))-1]和IgA/C3[(3.07±0.96)比(2.35±0.62)]方面比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,男性(OR=6.147,95%CI:2.303~16.411)、BMI(OR=4.201,95%CI:2.740~6.440)、高血压(OR=12.935,95%CI:3.589~46.615)、TG(OR=3.057,95%CI:1.097~8.521)、白细胞(OR=4.876,95%CI:2.500~9.510)、IgA/C3(OR=2.657,95%CI:1.473~4.793)是IgAN患者发生HUA的危险因素(P<0.05),eGFR(OR=0.547,95%CI:0.303~0.987)是保护因素(P<0.05)。建模组ROC曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)为0.912(95%CI:0.872~0.952),H-L检验χ^(2)=6.579,P=0.654。内部验证AUC为0.913(95%CI:0.855~0.971),H-L检验χ^(2)=6.486,P=0.723。由DCA曲线可知,高风险阈值概率在0.04~0.84时,该模型预测IgAN患者发生HUA的临床使用价值较高。结论男性、BMI、高血压、TG、白细胞和IgA/C3是影响IgAN患者发生HUA的危险因素,eGFR是保护因素。以此构建的列线图模型区分度与一致性良好,可预测IgAN患者发生HUA的风险,可以以此为依据,及时采取措施,降低HUA的发生风险。 展开更多
关键词 IGA肾病 高尿酸血症 影响因素 列线图 预警模型
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气管切开神经重症患者早期成功拔管的相关因素分析
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作者 戚婷 刘冬 王崇 《临床医学研究与实践》 2025年第1期63-66,共4页
目的 分析气管切开神经重症患者早期成功拔管的预测因素。方法 选择2019年1月至2023年12月收治的192例气管切开神经重症患者作为研究对象,以进入神经康复中心28 d时气管切开套管拔除情况将其分为未拔管组和成功拔管组。收集患者的临床资... 目的 分析气管切开神经重症患者早期成功拔管的预测因素。方法 选择2019年1月至2023年12月收治的192例气管切开神经重症患者作为研究对象,以进入神经康复中心28 d时气管切开套管拔除情况将其分为未拔管组和成功拔管组。收集患者的临床资料,采用二元Logistic回归分析探讨影响气管切开神经重症患者早期拔管的因素,构建Nomogram预测模型并对模型进行评价。结果 192例患者中,85例成功拔管。两组的进食方式、留置导尿管、血红蛋白水平、红细胞计数、将痰液经套管口咳出及临床衰弱量表(CFS)、修订版昏迷恢复量表(CRS-R)、格拉斯哥昏迷量表(GCS)评分比较,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。二元Logistic回归分析结果显示,将痰液经套管口咳出及CFS、CRS-R评分是气管切开神经重症患者早期拔管的独立预测因素(P<0.05)。Nomogram预测模型的C-index为0.957,曲线下面积(AUC)为0.962,特异度为90.7%,灵敏度为94.1%。结论 咳嗽能力及CRS-R、CFS评分是气管切开神经重症患者早期拔管的独立预测因素,Nomogram预测模型效果较好。 展开更多
关键词 气管切开 神经重症 早期拔管 Nomogram预测模型
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Auditory-model-based Feature Extraction Method for Mechanical Faults Diagnosis 被引量:12
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作者 LI Yungong ZHANG Jinping +2 位作者 DAI Li ZHANG Zhanyi LIU Jie 《Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2010年第3期391-397,共7页
It is well known that the human auditory system possesses remarkable capabilities to analyze and identify signals. Therefore, it would be significant to build an auditory model based on the mechanism of human auditory... It is well known that the human auditory system possesses remarkable capabilities to analyze and identify signals. Therefore, it would be significant to build an auditory model based on the mechanism of human auditory systems, which may improve the effects of mechanical signal analysis and enrich the methods of mechanical faults features extraction. However the existing methods are all based on explicit senses of mathematics or physics, and have some shortages on distinguishing different faults, stability, and suppressing the disturbance noise, etc. For the purpose of improving the performances of the work of feature extraction, an auditory model, early auditory(EA) model, is introduced for the first time. This auditory model transforms time domain signal into auditory spectrum via bandpass filtering, nonlinear compressing, and lateral inhibiting by simulating the principle of the human auditory system. The EA model is developed with the Gammatone filterbank as the basilar membrane. According to the characteristics of vibration signals, a method is proposed for determining the parameter of inner hair cells model of EA model. The performance of EA model is evaluated through experiments on four rotor faults, including misalignment, rotor-to-stator rubbing, oil film whirl, and pedestal looseness. The results show that the auditory spectrum, output of EA model, can effectively distinguish different faults with satisfactory stability and has the ability to suppress the disturbance noise. Then, it is feasible to apply auditory model, as a new method, to the feature extraction for mechanical faults diagnosis with effect. 展开更多
关键词 faults diagnosis feature extraction auditory model early auditory model
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早期多维度照护模式联合小儿推拿+蓝光照射干预对新生儿黄疸患儿排便情况的影响
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作者 楚文静 曹慧娜 陈叶琳 《现代医药卫生》 2025年第1期129-132,136,共5页
目的探讨分析早期多维度照护模式联合小儿推拿+蓝光照射干预对新生儿黄疸患儿排便情况的影响。方法选取2020年9月至2023年7月该院收治的新生儿黄疸患儿128例,根据入院时间将纳入对象分为对照组和联合组,每组64例。对照组给予常规护理干... 目的探讨分析早期多维度照护模式联合小儿推拿+蓝光照射干预对新生儿黄疸患儿排便情况的影响。方法选取2020年9月至2023年7月该院收治的新生儿黄疸患儿128例,根据入院时间将纳入对象分为对照组和联合组,每组64例。对照组给予常规护理干预,联合组在对照组的基础上给予早期多维度照护模式联合小儿推拿+蓝光照射护理,2组均持续干预7 d。比较2组患儿的症状缓解时间、排便情况,干预后不同时间段的黄疸指数,干预前后胆红素水平,患儿家属的护理满意度。结果干预7 d后,联合组患儿的临床症状缓解时间和住院时间较对照组短,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);干预7 d后,联合组患儿的第1次排便时间、胎便转黄时间、每天排便次数优于对照组,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05);联合组患儿第3、4天的黄疸指数较对照组低,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);干预7 d后,联合组患儿的胆红素水平较对照组低,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);联合组家属的护理满意度为96.88%(62/64),与对照组的87.50%(56/64)比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论早期多维度照护模式联合小儿推拿+蓝光照射干预能明显缩短症状好转时间,促使患儿进行排便,降低患儿的黄疸指数和胆红素水平,增强患儿的机体免疫力和家属的护理满意度。 展开更多
关键词 早期多维度照护模式 小儿推拿 蓝光照射 新生儿黄疸 排便情况
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Nutrient Application Model Affects the Contents of Chlorophyll and Carotenoid in Functional Leaves of Early Rice
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作者 周升明 周旋 +5 位作者 陈雄鹰 彭建伟 蔡桂青 刘强 荣湘民 黄维 《Agricultural Science & Technology》 CAS 2013年第11期1603-1609,共7页
The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of different nutri-ent application models on the contents of chlorophyl and carotenoid in the functional leaves of early rice. Using rice cultivar Xiangzaoxia... The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of different nutri-ent application models on the contents of chlorophyl and carotenoid in the functional leaves of early rice. Using rice cultivar Xiangzaoxian45 as experimental materials, the experiment was performed by designing 6 treatments, i.e., T1 (fertilization without nitrogen), T2(local conventional fertilization), T3(fertilization for high yield and high effi-ciency), T4 (fertilization for super high yield), T5 (fertilization application for super high yield and high efficiency A) and T6 (fertilization application for super high yield and high efficiency B) in two experimental plots Yiyang and Xiangyin. The results showed that T3 respectively increased the contents of chlorophyl and carotenoid at fil ing stage by 29.27%, 38.20% and 13.16%, 30.12% in Yiyang and Xiangyin, as wel as yield of early rice by 4.20%, 4.80% to T2 on the condition of saving 20% ni-trogen fertilizer. Additional y, T5 and T6 on the condition of saving 16.7% nitrogen fertilizer by T4 increased the contents of chlorophyl and carotenoid of fil ing stage by 53.91%, 53.73% and 35.95%, 37.47% in Yiyang and Xiangyin, as wel as yield of early rice by 16.60%, 18.75% to T2 in Yiyang; increased the contents of chlorophyl and carotenoid at fil ing stage by 57.82%, 56.80% and 54.88%, 57.03% in Yiyang and Xiangyin, as wel as yield of early rice 10.10%, 6.75% to T2 in Xiangyin. More-over, there was a significant correlation or an extremely significant correlation be-tween yield and the contents of chlorophyl and carotenoid at different soil fertility level (P〈0.05 or P〈0.01). Therefore, nutrient application plays an important role in the contents of chlorophyl and carotenoid in the functional leaves of early rice. 展开更多
关键词 Early rice Nutrient application model Chlorophyll content Carotenoidcontent Dynamic change
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Early warning model for slope debris flow initiation 被引量:4
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作者 LI Ming-li JIANG Yuan-jun +3 位作者 YANG Tao HUANG Qiang-bing QIAO Jian-ping YANG Zong-ji 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2018年第6期1342-1353,共12页
Early warning model of debris flow is important for providing local residents with reliable and accurate warning information to escape from debris flow hazards. This research studied the debris flow initiation in the ... Early warning model of debris flow is important for providing local residents with reliable and accurate warning information to escape from debris flow hazards. This research studied the debris flow initiation in the Yindongzi gully in Dujiangyan City, Sichuan province, China with scaled-down model experiments. We set rainfall intensity and slope angle as dominating parameters and carried out 20 scaled-down model tests under artificial rainfall conditions. The experiments set four slope angles(32°, 34°, 37°, 42°) and five rainfall intensities(60 mm/h, 90 mm/h, 120 mm/h, 150 mm/h, and 180 mm/h) treatments. The characteristic variables in the experiments, such as, rainfall duration, pore water pressure, moisture content, surface inclination, and volume were monitored. The experimental results revealed the failure mode of loose slope material and the process of slope debris flow initiation, as well as the relationship between the surface deformation and the physical parameters of experimental model. A traditional rainfall intensity-duration early warning model(I-D model) was firstly established by using a mathematical regression analysis, and it was then improved into ISD model and ISM model(Here, I is rainfall Intensity, S is Slope angle, D is rainfall Duration, and M is Moisture content). The warning model can provide reliable early warning of slope debris flow initiation. 展开更多
关键词 Slope debris flow Artificial rainfallmodel Early warning model model experiment
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Development and external validation of models to predict acute respiratory distress syndrome related to severe acute pancreatitis 被引量:5
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作者 Yun-Long Li Ding-Ding Zhang +5 位作者 Yang-Yang Xiong Rui-Feng Wang Xiao-Mao Gao Hui Gong Shi-Cheng Zheng Dong Wu 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS 2022年第19期2123-2136,共14页
BACKGROUND Acute respiratory distress syndrome(ARDS)is a major cause of death in patients with severe acute pancreatitis(SAP).Although a series of prediction models have been developed for early identification of such... BACKGROUND Acute respiratory distress syndrome(ARDS)is a major cause of death in patients with severe acute pancreatitis(SAP).Although a series of prediction models have been developed for early identification of such patients,the majority are complicated or lack validation.A simpler and more credible model is required for clinical practice.AIM To develop and validate a predictive model for SAP related ARDS.METHODS Patients diagnosed with AP from four hospitals located at different regions of China were retrospectively grouped into derivation and validation cohorts.Statistically significant variables were identified using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression method.Predictive models with nomograms were further built using multiple logistic regression analysis with these picked predictors.The discriminatory power of new models was compared with some common models.The performance of calibration ability and clinical utility of the predictive models were evaluated.RESULTS Out of 597 patients with AP,139 were diagnosed with SAP(80 in derivation cohort and 59 in validation cohort)and 99 with ARDS(62 in derivation cohort and 37 in validation cohort).Four identical variables were identified as independent risk factors for both SAP and ARDS:heart rate[odds ratio(OR)=1.05;95%CI:1.04-1.07;P<0.001;OR=1.05,95%CI:1.03-1.07,P<0.001],respiratory rate(OR=1.08,95%CI:1.0-1.17,P=0.047;OR=1.10,95%CI:1.02-1.19,P=0.014),serum calcium concentration(OR=0.26,95%CI:0.09-0.73,P=0.011;OR=0.17,95%CI:0.06-0.48,P=0.001)and blood urea nitrogen(OR=1.15,95%CI:1.09-1.23,P<0.001;OR=1.12,95%CI:1.05-1.19,P<0.001).The area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.879(95%CI:0.830-0.928)and 0.898(95%CI:0.848-0.949)for SAP prediction in derivation and validation cohorts,respectively.This value was 0.892(95%CI:0.843-0.941)and 0.833(95%CI:0.754-0.912)for ARDS prediction,respectively.The discriminatory power of our models was improved compared with that of other widely used models and the calibration ability and clinical utility of the prediction models performed adequately.CONCLUSION The present study constructed and validated a simple and accurate predictive model for SAPrelated ARDS in patients with AP. 展开更多
关键词 Acute pancreatitis Acute respiratory distress syndrome NOMOGRAM CALIBRATION Early identification Predictive model
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Development of a machine learning-based model for predicting risk of early postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma 被引量:4
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作者 Yu-Bo Zhang Gang Yang +3 位作者 Yang Bu Peng Lei Wei Zhang Dan-Yang Zhang 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS 2023年第43期5804-5817,共14页
BACKGROUND Surgical resection is the primary treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).However,studies indicate that nearly 70%of patients experience HCC recurrence within five years following hepatectomy.The earlie... BACKGROUND Surgical resection is the primary treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).However,studies indicate that nearly 70%of patients experience HCC recurrence within five years following hepatectomy.The earlier the recurrence,the worse the prognosis.Current studies on postoperative recurrence primarily rely on postoperative pathology and patient clinical data,which are lagging.Hence,developing a new pre-operative prediction model for postoperative recurrence is crucial for guiding individualized treatment of HCC patients and enhancing their prognosis.AIM To identify key variables in pre-operative clinical and imaging data using machine learning algorithms to construct multiple risk prediction models for early postoperative recurrence of HCC.METHODS The demographic and clinical data of 371 HCC patients were collected for this retrospective study.These data were randomly divided into training and test sets at a ratio of 8:2.The training set was analyzed,and key feature variables with predictive value for early HCC recurrence were selected to construct six different machine learning prediction models.Each model was evaluated,and the bestperforming model was selected for interpreting the importance of each variable.Finally,an online calculator based on the model was generated for daily clinical practice.RESULTS Following machine learning analysis,eight key feature variables(age,intratumoral arteries,alpha-fetoprotein,preoperative blood glucose,number of tumors,glucose-to-lymphocyte ratio,liver cirrhosis,and pre-operative platelets)were selected to construct six different prediction models.The XGBoost model outperformed other models,with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the training,validation,and test datasets being 0.993(95%confidence interval:0.982-1.000),0.734(0.601-0.867),and 0.706(0.585-0.827),respectively.Calibration curve and decision curve analysis indicated that the XGBoost model also had good predictive performance and clinical application value.CONCLUSION The XGBoost model exhibits superior performance and is a reliable tool for predicting early postoperative HCC recurrence.This model may guide surgical strategies and postoperative individualized medicine. 展开更多
关键词 Machine learning Hepatocellular carcinoma Early recurrence Risk prediction models Imaging features Clinical features
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