Based on the disaster reports,NCEP2.5X2.5 reanalysis data and radiosonde data of 11 national stations in Ulanqab region from June to August during 2012-2017,the weather situation classification and warning indicators ...Based on the disaster reports,NCEP2.5X2.5 reanalysis data and radiosonde data of 11 national stations in Ulanqab region from June to August during 2012-2017,the weather situation classification and warning indicators of thunderstorm and gale,hail and short-term heavy rainfall were studied.The results show that the cold vortex weather situation was easy to produce hail,and the falling area of severe convection could be found in the downstream of the cold vortex,the intersection area of jet stream at 200 and 500 hPa,and the wet area side of the 700 hPa main line.The cold trough type weather situation was easy to produce thunderstorm and gale,and the falling area of severe convection appeared on the right side of the upper jet stream axis,the left side of the lower jet stream axis,the wet side of the 700 hPa main line,and the east of the shear line at 700 hPa.The weather situation of the low trough and subtropical high type was dominated by short-term rainstorm,and the falling area of severe convection was on the right side of upper jet stream at 200 hPa,the left side of the low southeast jet stream,and the wet side of the 700 hPa main line.The warning index thresholds of the total index,the temperature change at 850-500 hPa with height,the height of 0 and-20℃layer,lifting condensation height,temperature dew point difference and mixing ratio were highly reliable.展开更多
To address the shortcomings in decision-making methods for ground motion threshold warning models in high-speed rail earthquake early warning systems(HSREEWs),we propose a dual judgement method and corresponding early...To address the shortcomings in decision-making methods for ground motion threshold warning models in high-speed rail earthquake early warning systems(HSREEWs),we propose a dual judgement method and corresponding early warning process for earthquake early warning decisions based on joint peak ground acceleration(PGA)and complex earthquake environmental risk evaluation(ERE)values.First,we analyse the characteristics of four complex earthquake environments based on the characteristics of high-speed rail(HSR)operating environments.Second,we establish an earthquake environmental risk evaluation index system and propose an adversarial interpretive structure modelling method-based complex earthquake situation evaluation model(AISM-based ESEM).The AISM method firstly evaluates the proximity by the TOPSIS(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution)method,then effectively rank targets with fuzzy attributes through opposite hierarchical extraction rules without sacrificing system functionality.Since PGA can reflect the current size of earthquake energy,combining PGA thresholds with ESEM-derived values of ERE can effectively determine the risk status of each train and make decisions on the most appropriate alarm form and control measures for that status.Finally,case analysis results under the background of Wenchuan Earthquake show that the new early warning decisionmaking method accurately assesses environmental risks in affected areas and provides corresponding warning levels as a supplement to existing HSREEWs warning models.展开更多
According to the index early warning method, a commercial bank loans risk early warning system based on BP neural networks is proposed. The warning signal is mainly involved with the financial situation signal of loan...According to the index early warning method, a commercial bank loans risk early warning system based on BP neural networks is proposed. The warning signal is mainly involved with the financial situation signal of loaning corporation. Except the structure description of the system structure the demonstration of attemptive designing is also elaborated.展开更多
文摘Based on the disaster reports,NCEP2.5X2.5 reanalysis data and radiosonde data of 11 national stations in Ulanqab region from June to August during 2012-2017,the weather situation classification and warning indicators of thunderstorm and gale,hail and short-term heavy rainfall were studied.The results show that the cold vortex weather situation was easy to produce hail,and the falling area of severe convection could be found in the downstream of the cold vortex,the intersection area of jet stream at 200 and 500 hPa,and the wet area side of the 700 hPa main line.The cold trough type weather situation was easy to produce thunderstorm and gale,and the falling area of severe convection appeared on the right side of the upper jet stream axis,the left side of the lower jet stream axis,the wet side of the 700 hPa main line,and the east of the shear line at 700 hPa.The weather situation of the low trough and subtropical high type was dominated by short-term rainstorm,and the falling area of severe convection was on the right side of upper jet stream at 200 hPa,the left side of the low southeast jet stream,and the wet side of the 700 hPa main line.The warning index thresholds of the total index,the temperature change at 850-500 hPa with height,the height of 0 and-20℃layer,lifting condensation height,temperature dew point difference and mixing ratio were highly reliable.
基金supported in part by the Key Scientific and Technological projects of Henan Province(Grant No.182102310004)the Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.KYCX19_0304)the scholarship of China Scholarship Council(Grant No.201906840033,202006840084).
文摘To address the shortcomings in decision-making methods for ground motion threshold warning models in high-speed rail earthquake early warning systems(HSREEWs),we propose a dual judgement method and corresponding early warning process for earthquake early warning decisions based on joint peak ground acceleration(PGA)and complex earthquake environmental risk evaluation(ERE)values.First,we analyse the characteristics of four complex earthquake environments based on the characteristics of high-speed rail(HSR)operating environments.Second,we establish an earthquake environmental risk evaluation index system and propose an adversarial interpretive structure modelling method-based complex earthquake situation evaluation model(AISM-based ESEM).The AISM method firstly evaluates the proximity by the TOPSIS(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution)method,then effectively rank targets with fuzzy attributes through opposite hierarchical extraction rules without sacrificing system functionality.Since PGA can reflect the current size of earthquake energy,combining PGA thresholds with ESEM-derived values of ERE can effectively determine the risk status of each train and make decisions on the most appropriate alarm form and control measures for that status.Finally,case analysis results under the background of Wenchuan Earthquake show that the new early warning decisionmaking method accurately assesses environmental risks in affected areas and provides corresponding warning levels as a supplement to existing HSREEWs warning models.
基金Supported by the National Science Foundation of China(Approved NO.79770086)
文摘According to the index early warning method, a commercial bank loans risk early warning system based on BP neural networks is proposed. The warning signal is mainly involved with the financial situation signal of loaning corporation. Except the structure description of the system structure the demonstration of attemptive designing is also elaborated.
