Effect of an inpatient nursing risk early warning and control system in Shanghai:A retrospective study of adverse events

Purpose:To avoid the nursing risk of inpatients,reduce the occurrence of nursing errors and improve the safety of inpatients.Methods:We established a nursing risk early warning and control system,which includes a safety supervisory network,risk screening and early warning tools,and a risk control process.Results:The qualified rates of risk control measures to prevent pressure ulcers,unplanned extubation and fall/fall from bed all increased.The incidence of reported nursing errors decreased.The number of mistakes in medication-giving decreased.Conclusion:The establishment of an inpatient early warning and control system could effectively avoid nursing risk,improve risk prevention abilities,improve patient safety,and improve nursing quality.

Designing of Commercial Bank Loans Risk Early Warning System Based on BP Neural Networks

According to the index early warning method, a commercial bank loans risk early warning system based on BP neural networks is proposed. The warning signal is mainly involved with the financial situation signal of loaning corporation. Except the structure description of the system structure the demonstration of attemptive designing is also elaborated.

Study of Enterprises Marketing Risk Early Warning System Based on BP Neural Network Model

For effectively early warning the marketing risk caused along with the varied environment, a BP neural network method was introduced on the basis of analyzing the shortcomings of the risk early warning method, and combined with the practical conditions of dairy enterprises, the index system caused by the marketing risk was also studied. The＇principal component method was used for screening the indexes, the grades and critical values of the marketing risk were determined. Through the configuration of BP network, node processing and error analysis, the early warning resuits of the marketing risk were obtained. The results indicate that BP neural network method can be effectively applied through the function approach in the marketing early warning with incomplete information and complex varied conditions.

Study on Positioning System of the Risk Early Warning for Enterprise Overseas Investment

From the perspective of internal and external environment analysis,we construct the risk identification index system for overseas investment enterprises.Combined with the theory of comprehensive evaluation and risk early warning,the risk location system of overseas investment is established.The risk intelligence decision model is constructed by rough set theory,and the risk identification,risk location and risk decision of overseas investment are studied,and are empirically analyzed with cases in overseas investment.

Ecological risk assessment and early warning of heavy metal cumulation in the soils near the Luanchuan molybdenum polymetallic mine concentration area,Henan Province,central China

The Luanchuan molybdenum polymetallic mine concentration area is rich in mineral resources and has a long history of mining.The environmental impact of long-term mining activities cannot be ignored.It is of great significance to study the ecological risk and the accumulation trends of heavy metals in the soil of mining areas for scientific prevention and control of heavy metal pollution.Taking the Taowanbeigou River Basin in the mine concentration area as the research object,the ecological pollution risk and cumulative effect of heavy metals in the soil of the basin were studied by using the comprehensive pollution index method,potential ecological risk assessment method and geoaccumulation index method.On this basis,the cumulative exceeding years of specific heavy metals were predicted by using the early warning model.The comprehensive potential ecological risk of heavy metals in the soil near the Luanchuan mine concentration area is moderate,and the single element Cd is the main ecological risk factor,with a contribution rate of 53.6%.The overall cumulative degrees of Cu and Pb in the soil are“none-moderate”,Zn and Cd are moderate,Mo has reached an extremely strong cumulative level,Hg,As and Cr risks are not obvious,and the overall cumulative risks order is Mo>Cd>Zn>Cu>Pb>Hg.According to the current accumulation rate and taking the risk screening values for soil contamination of agricultural land as the reference standard,the locations over standard rates of Cu,Zn and Cd will exceed 78%in 90years,and the over standard rate of Pb will reach approximately 57%in 200 years.The cumulative exceeding standard periods of As,Cr and Hg are generally long,which basically indicates that these elements do not pose a significant potential threat to the ecological environment.Mining activities will accelerate the accumulation of heavy metals in soil.With the continuous development of mining activities,the potential pollution risk of heavy metals in the soil of mining areas will also increase.

Risk Early-Warning Method for Natural Disasters Based on Integration of Entropy and DEA Model

Risk early-warning of natural disasters is a very intricate non-deterministic prediction, and it was difficult to resolve the conflicts and incompatibility of the risk structure. Risk early-warning factors of natural disasters were differentiated into essential attributes and external characters, and its workflow mode was established on risk early-warning structure with integrated Entropy and DEA model, whose steps were put forward. On the basis of standard risk early-warning DEA model of natural disasters, weight coefficient of risk early-warning factors was determined with Information Entropy method, which improved standard risk early-warning DEA model with non-Archimedean infinitesimal, and established risk early-warning preference DEA model based on integrated entropy weight and DEA Model. Finally, model was applied into landslide risk early-warning case in earthquake-damaged emergency process on slope engineering, which exemplified the outcome could reflect more risk information than the method of standard DEA model, and reflected the rationality, feasibility, and impersonality, revealing its better ability on comprehensive safety and structure risk.

Pattern changes and early risk warning of Spartina alterniflora invasion:a study of mangrove-dominated wetlands in northeastern Fujian,China

The exotic saltmarsh cordgrass,Spartina alterniflora(Loisel)Peterson&Saarela,is one of the important causes for the extensive destruction of mangroves in China due to its invasive nature.The species has rapidly spread wildly across coastal wetlands,challenging resource managers for control of its further spread.An investigation of S.alterniflora invasion and associated ecological risk is urgent in China's coastal wetlands.In this study,an ecological risk invasive index system was developed based on the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework.Predictions were made of'warning degrees':zero warning and light,moderate,strong,and extreme warning,by developing a back propagation(BP)artificial neural network model for coastal wetlands in eastern Fujian Province.Our results suggest that S.alterniflora mainly has invaded Kandelia candel beaches and farmlands with clustered distributions.An early warning indicator system assessed the ecological risk of the invasion and showed a ladder-like distribution from high to low extending from the urban area in the central inland region with changes spread to adjacent areas.Areas of light warning and extreme warning accounted for43%and 7%,respectively,suggesting the BP neural network model is reliable prediction of the ecological risk of S.alterniflora invasion.The model predicts that distribution pattern of this invasive species will change little in the next 10 years.However,the invaded patches will become relatively more concentrated without warning predicted.We suggest that human factors such as land use activities may partially determine changes in warning degree.Our results emphasize that an early warning system for S.alterniflora invasion in China's eastern coastal wetlands is significant,and comprehensive control measures are needed,particularly for K.candel beach.

Integrated water risk early warning framework of the semi-arid transitional zone based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC)

Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future overload.In addition,existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators.Given the periodicity of the socioeconomic system,however,the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical fluctuations.Thus,it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the WECC.In this study,we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning framework.We also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental system.We selected the North Canal Basin(an essential connection among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region)in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018–2023.We found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC,to some extent.The result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction(root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418),and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index(CEWI)conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river basin.From 2008 to 2023,the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences:the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances,while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water volume.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of the indicators,we proposed specific management measures for the sustainability of the water environmental system in the North Canal Basin.Overall,the integrated water risk early warning framework could provide an appropriate method for the water environmental administration department to predict the WECC of the basin in the future.This framework could also assist in implementing corresponding management measures in advance,especially for the performance evaluation and the arrangement of key short-term tasks in the River Chief System in China.

Risk monitoring and early-warning technology of coal mine production

This article was written according to the secudty information theory and the secudty cybernetics basic principle, for reducing the accident risk effectively and safeguarding the production safety in coal mine. First, each kind of risk characteristic has carried on the earnest analysis to the coal-mining production process. Then it proposed entire wrap technology system of the risk management and the risk monitoring early warning in the coal-mining production process, and developed the application software-coal mine risk monitoring and the early warning system which runs on the local area network. The coal-mining production risk monitoring and early warning technology system includes risk information gathering, risk identification and management, risk information transmission; saving and analysis, early warning prompt of accident risk, safety dynamic monitoring, and safety control countermeasure and so on. The article specifies implementation method and step of this technology system, and introduces application situations in cooperating mine enterprise, e.g. Xiezhuang coal mine. It may supply the risk management and the accident prevention work of each kind of mine reference.

Early Warning of Commercial Housing Market Based on Bagging-GWO-SVM

A number of risks exist in commercial housing,and it is critical for the government,the real estate industry,and consumers to establish an objective early warning indicator system for commercial housing risks and to conduct research regarding its measurement and early warning.In this paper,we examine the commodity housing market and construct a risk index for the commodity housing market at three levels:market level,the real estate industry and the national economy.Using the Bootstrap aggregating-grey wolf optimizer-support vector machine(Bagging-GWO-SVM)model after synthesizing the risk index by applying the CRITIC objective weighting method,the commercial housing market can be monitored for risks and early warnings.Based on the empirical study,the following conclusions have been drawn:(1)The commodity housing market risk index accurately reflect the actual risk situation in Tianjin;(2)Based on comparisons with other models,the Bagging-GWO-SVM model provides higher accuracy in early warning.A final set of suggestions is presented based on the empirical study.

Oral microbiome and risk of malignant esophageal lesions in a high-risk area of China:A nested case-control study

Objective:We aimed to prospectively evaluate the association of oral microbiome with malignant esophageal lesions and its predictive potential as a biomarker of risk.Methods:We conducted a case-control study nested within a population-based cohort with up to 8 visits of oral swab collection for each subject over an 11-year period in a high-risk area for esophageal cancer in China.The oral microbiome was evaluated with 16 S ribosomal RNA(rRNA)gene sequencing in 428 pre-diagnostic oral specimens from 84 cases with esophageal lesions of severe squamous dysplasia and above(SDA)and 168 matched healthy controls.DESeq analysis was performed to identify taxa of differential abundance.Differential oral species together with subject characteristics were evaluated for their potential in predicting SDA risk by constructing conditional logistic regression models.Results:A total of 125 taxa including 37 named species showed significantly different abundance between SDA cases and controls(all P<0.05&false discovery rate-adjusted Q<0.10).A multivariate logistic model including 11 SDA lesion-related species and family history of esophageal cancer provided an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)of 0.89(95%CI,0.84-0.93).Cross-validation and sensitivity analysis,excluding cases diagnosed within 1 year of collection of the baseline specimen and their matched controls,or restriction to screenendoscopic-detected or clinically diagnosed case-control triads,or using only bacterial data measured at the baseline,yielded AUCs>0.84.Conclusions:The oral microbiome may play an etiological and predictive role in esophageal cancer,and it holds promise as a non-invasive early warning biomarker for risk stratification for esophageal cancer screening programs.

Chinese public participation monitoring and warning system for geological hazards

In China,many geological hazards occurred in remote mountainous regions,and it was time-consuming to disseminate disaster information for the responsible parties to make timely judgements.Besides,only relying on professionals to monitor and manage disasters was demanding and costly.The Chinese government created a system to engage residents in the process of disaster risk management,namely’Public Participation Monitoring and Warning’(PPMW),to disseminate timely disaster information and bring down management costs.The objective of this system was to reduce casualties with minimum cost by organizing residents to evacuate from disasters in advance.This paper introduced the PPMW system,including its structure,operation mechanism by reviewing government documents and research articles,and its implementation by a case study of a landslide at Boli village(E 101°01’,N 27°29’),Yanyuan County,Sichuan Province,China on July 19th 2018.Further,this paper analyzed the strengths and limitations of the system and discussed its future development.It had the potential to become an affordable disaster risk management tool for other countries facing similar situations to China.

An Artificial Intelligence Algorithm for the Real-Time Early Detection of Sticking Phenomena in Horizontal Shale Gas Wells

Sticking is the most serious cause of failure in complex drilling operations.In the present work a novel“early warning”method based on an artificial intelligence algorithm is proposed to overcome some of the known pro-blems associated with existing sticking-identification technologies.The method is tested against a practical case study(Southern Sichuan shale gas drilling operations).It is shown that the twelve sets of sticking fault diagnostic results obtained from a simulation are all consistent with the actual downhole state;furthermore,the results from four groups of verification samples are also consistent with the actual downhole state.This shows that the pro-posed training-based model can effectively be applied to practical situations.

Option of Fiscal and Financial Polices Based on Monitoring Boom of Urban Employment

With downward pressure of economy facing, monitoring boom index of employment continue to decline. This paper will research on how to cope with urban employment problem using fiscal and financial polices,through building system of boom of urban employment, and identifying risk signal of Chinese urban employment.

基于小流域尺度的临港新片区陆海联通水系生态质量综合评价

临港新片区作为典型陆海联通区域,陆域水系经农田、商业区、居民区、湿地等区域携带污染物经南汇东滩湿地汇入海洋,近年来,经济迅猛发展所带来的环境问题不容小觑。为了解临港新片区从陆到海的生态环境状况,本研究开展了水环境、沉积物环境以及生物生态群落结构调查,采用多种指数模型对临港新片区生态系统健康进行了综合评价。结果表明:总氮(TN)为水体的主要营养元素,与施用氮肥等农业活动、生活污水排放以及建筑施工导致的点源污染有关;总磷(TP)是影响滴水湖区水质的主要指标;水体中重金属整体污染水平较低。沉积物中TP是主要营养元素,重金属含量呈现出Cd>Cu>Cr>Pb的规律。虽然潜在生态风险指数(RI)表明研究区域整体处于低风险水平,但Cd导致的较高的潜在生态风险仍值得关注。从陆到海的种类多样性指数(H′)逐渐升高,生物多样性逐渐增加。总体来看,从陆到海水体生态质量整体呈现波动变好的趋势,但营养元素N、P及重金属Cd污染需重点关注。对研究区域进行的风险预警评价表明,陆域水体为较安全状态,近岸海域为安全状态,N、P元素可能引起的富营养化是临港新片区现阶段面临的关键问题。因此,针对性地确定生态优化与恢复策略以提升临港新片区的整体环境质量至关重要。

基于模型的水稻高温热害风险评估与动态预警

【目的】通过构建水稻高温热害预警系统与灾害风险评估体系,提高水稻高温热害灾损评估水平和防灾减灾能力。【方法】挑选福建省4个代表性水稻品种,在当地水稻易受高温热害的四个关键发育期进行高温控制试验,测定不同高温胁迫处理下水稻产量及其构成因素的变化。结合水稻发育期模型计算高温热害灾损率,进而构建水稻高温热害风险评估和预警系统。结合福建省近50年的气象资料,利用研发的系统计算水稻高温热害灾损率,划分出各稻区水稻关键发育期的热害风险等级。利用逐日气象数据进行水稻高温热害的单点和区域动态预警模拟,并利用种植样点的区域试验资料和气象产量计算出实际灾损,对模拟预警结果进行验证。【结果】福建省水稻高温热害风险评估结果显示,闽东南双季稻区的早稻以低风险为主,并且主要出现在早稻开花期,近50年热害发生频率小于30%;闽西北双季稻区的早稻以高风险和次高风险为主,其中开花期热害发生频率为68%~80%,灌浆期为62%~80%。闽西北山地单季稻区中稻发生高温热害低风险区分布最广,其中减数分裂期热害的发生频率小于38%,开花期小于26%。2020年12个代表性品种在福建省水稻高温热害单点动态预警系统中模拟,结果显示,闽东南双季稻区早稻发生重度高温热害的概率较高,灾损率为51.1%~55.4%;闽西北双季稻区早稻则遭遇轻度和中度高温热害,灾损率为12.1%~26.8%;闽西北山地单季稻区中稻发生中度热害概率较高,灾损率为18.2%~29.4%。2020年福建省区域预警模拟结果显示,种植早稻“T78优2155”的两个稻区内,重度热害地区主要集中在安溪、南安、同安、龙海等闽东南县区,灾损率为30.8%~41.6%,闽西北仅有将乐地区为重度热害,灾损率为31.0%;种植中稻“II优3301”的闽西北山地单季稻区内,光泽、政和、明溪、永安等地遭遇中度热害,灾损率为15.1%~21.7%。【结论】闽西北水稻种植区的早稻遭遇热害的风险均较闽东南地区更为严重。无论在空间还是时间变化上,系统模拟的灾损率与当地实际水稻生产的灾损率以及气象产量变化相契合,预警效果较好。

基于SPD平台建设强化医用耗材精细化闭环管理的探索

目的通过建立医用耗材使用评价机制,实现医用耗材全生命周期的智慧化、精细化闭环管理。运用SPD信息平台解决医用耗材的成本管控、合规降险、监测和监督、管理能力提升等突出问题。方法探讨分析某三级医疗机构医用耗材管理现状,对传统医用耗材管理现状进行调查,针对其存在的突出问题,建立医用耗材采购、供应、验收、库存智慧化管理预警机制,实现医用耗材安全与质量管理风险控制。结果某三级医疗机构应用SPD模式后护理医用耗材收费时间消耗指数有所下降,结果具有统计学意义(P<0.05);临床科室耗材库存周转效率有所上升,结果具有统计学意义(P<0.05);临床科室耗材申领及盘库管理时间有所下降,结果具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论通过SPD模式建立医用耗材采购的预警机制和风险管控机制,可降低耗材的人力管理成本,减轻医护人员负担,避免过度医疗,从而有效提升医疗机构医用耗材管理水平。

基于平均场理论的航空安全风险预警模型

由于航空事故的发生往往很难预测,而且是不可逆转的,因此如何制定有效的航空预警方案是避免事故发生的关键。针对航空安全风险预警问题,利用航空风险传播动力学模型,基于平均场理论解析航空系统事故触发概率,通过敏感性分析得出触发事件对航空事故发生的提升率,建立事前航空事故预警模型。结果发现,事前预警模型中应该分配更多的资源给能见度差、飞机系统故障、疲劳、特情处置不力、技能不足、设备维护不足等触发事件,从而避免上述事件的发生。通过航空事故风险传播规律,建立事中航空事故预警模型,得出受到触发事件影响的风险演化事件集合,并给出对应排序使得管理者可以做到资源的有效分配。

尿毒症患者应用CRRT时体外循环装置凝血的危险因素及预警模型

目的探讨尿毒症患者应用连续性肾脏替代治疗(continuous renal replacement therapy,CRRT)时体外循环装置凝血的危险因素,构建并验证风险预警模型。方法回顾性选取2020年3月至2022年3月于南昌大学第二附属医院行CRRT治疗的210例尿毒症患者作为训练集,并依据CRRT治疗过程中是否出现凝血现象将其分为凝血组和未凝血组,同时按照7∶3的比例选取2022年4月至2023年4月于本院行CRRT治疗的90例尿毒症患者作为验证集。采用单因素分析和多因素Logistic回归分析尿毒症患者应用CRRT时体外循环装置凝血的相关因素,并构建风险预测模型,采用受试者操作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC曲线)验证模型的预测效能。结果训练集中53例患者发生体外循环装置凝血,发生率25.24%。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,年龄≥60岁、躁动、血流量降低、血小板计数升高、跨膜压升高均是尿毒症患者应用CRRT时体外循环装置凝血的危险因素(P<0.05)。训练集的Hosmer-Lemeshow检验结果显示该模型的拟合优度较好,该模型预测尿毒症患者应用CRRT时体外循环装置凝血的曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)为0.956(95%CI:0.926~0.985,P<0.05),敏感度为86.40%,特异性为83.80%。验证集的拟合优度较好,预测模型的AUC为0.946(95%CI:0.915~0.977,P<0.05),敏感度为82.60%,特异性为81.80%。结论基于上述危险因素构建的风险预警模型具有较好的预测效果,可为临床识别尿毒症患者应用CRRT时体外循环装置凝血的发生及预防干预提供参考。

改良新生儿早期预警评分表在高危新生儿休克早期识别及护理中的应用

目的探讨改良新生儿早期预警评分表(MNEWS)在高危新生儿休克早期识别及护理中的应用效果。方法选取茂名市妇幼保健院新生儿一科2023年1月1日至12月31日收治的180例高危新生儿,采用摸球法将其分为对照组(90例)和试验组(90例)。对照组采用常规评估和护理,试验组使用改良MNEWS评估病情并实施相应护理,比较两组评估及时性和准确性、痊愈出院率、入住新生儿重症监护室(NICU)率和家属满意度。结果试验组评估及时性和准确性优于对照组,痊愈出院率高于对照组,入住NICU率低于对照组,家属总满意率高于对照组(P<0.05)。结论改良MNEWS可更加高效地识别高危新生儿休克早期病情,为临床护理提供指导,改善新生儿预后。