Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly...Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future overload.In addition,existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators.Given the periodicity of the socioeconomic system,however,the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical fluctuations.Thus,it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the WECC.In this study,we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning framework.We also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental system.We selected the North Canal Basin(an essential connection among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region)in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018–2023.We found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC,to some extent.The result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction(root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418),and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index(CEWI)conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river basin.From 2008 to 2023,the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences:the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances,while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water volume.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of the indicators,we proposed specific management measures for the sustainability of the water environmental system in the North Canal Basin.Overall,the integrated water risk early warning framework could provide an appropriate method for the water environmental administration department to predict the WECC of the basin in the future.This framework could also assist in implementing corresponding management measures in advance,especially for the performance evaluation and the arrangement of key short-term tasks in the River Chief System in China.展开更多
According to characteristic index of spatial-temporal variability of rural drinking water safety in Ya’an City of Sichuan, China, such as water quantity, water quality, convenience degree and guaranteed rate, etc., t...According to characteristic index of spatial-temporal variability of rural drinking water safety in Ya’an City of Sichuan, China, such as water quantity, water quality, convenience degree and guaranteed rate, etc., this study elaborated the basic framework, model’s methodology structure in early warning system of rural drinking water safety on the basis of ComGIS and initially designed information collection, search and re-trieval, evaluation and analysis of factors, dynamic prediction and dynamic early-warning and functions of guidance and management in this system. The design of this system provided scientific basis to grasp the state of rural drinking water safety timely, release early warning information and properly take necessary control measures, etc. The evaluation results showed that the overall trend was getting better. It proved that the rising pressure value and response value were main reasons which caused the rising evaluation value of rural drinking water safety.展开更多
Extension multi-factorial evaluation method was used in water quality early-earning in Yincungang River based on MATLAB. The results showed that water quality in summer was safe,while that in other three seasons were ...Extension multi-factorial evaluation method was used in water quality early-earning in Yincungang River based on MATLAB. The results showed that water quality in summer was safe,while that in other three seasons were in pre-warning state with the order of winter > spring > autumn.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2021YFB3901104).
文摘Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future overload.In addition,existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators.Given the periodicity of the socioeconomic system,however,the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical fluctuations.Thus,it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the WECC.In this study,we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning framework.We also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental system.We selected the North Canal Basin(an essential connection among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region)in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018–2023.We found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC,to some extent.The result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction(root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418),and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index(CEWI)conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river basin.From 2008 to 2023,the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences:the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances,while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water volume.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of the indicators,we proposed specific management measures for the sustainability of the water environmental system in the North Canal Basin.Overall,the integrated water risk early warning framework could provide an appropriate method for the water environmental administration department to predict the WECC of the basin in the future.This framework could also assist in implementing corresponding management measures in advance,especially for the performance evaluation and the arrangement of key short-term tasks in the River Chief System in China.
文摘According to characteristic index of spatial-temporal variability of rural drinking water safety in Ya’an City of Sichuan, China, such as water quantity, water quality, convenience degree and guaranteed rate, etc., this study elaborated the basic framework, model’s methodology structure in early warning system of rural drinking water safety on the basis of ComGIS and initially designed information collection, search and re-trieval, evaluation and analysis of factors, dynamic prediction and dynamic early-warning and functions of guidance and management in this system. The design of this system provided scientific basis to grasp the state of rural drinking water safety timely, release early warning information and properly take necessary control measures, etc. The evaluation results showed that the overall trend was getting better. It proved that the rising pressure value and response value were main reasons which caused the rising evaluation value of rural drinking water safety.
基金Supported by Jiangsu Taihu Treatment Scientific Research Program(TH2010101)
文摘Extension multi-factorial evaluation method was used in water quality early-earning in Yincungang River based on MATLAB. The results showed that water quality in summer was safe,while that in other three seasons were in pre-warning state with the order of winter > spring > autumn.
