Objective Observational studies have found associations between inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)and the risk of dementia,including Alzheimer’s dementia(AD)and vascular dementia(VD);however,these findings are inconsist...Objective Observational studies have found associations between inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)and the risk of dementia,including Alzheimer’s dementia(AD)and vascular dementia(VD);however,these findings are inconsistent.It remains unclear whether these associations are causal.Methods We conducted a meta-analysis by systematically searching for observational studies on the association between IBD and dementia.Mendelian randomization(MR)analysis based on summary genome-wide association studies(GWASs)was performed.Genetic correlation and Bayesian colocalization analyses were used to provide robust genetic evidence.Results Ten observational studies involving 80,565,688 participants were included in this metaanalysis.IBD was significantly associated with dementia(risk ratio[RR]=1.36,95%CI=1.04-1.78;I2=84.8%)and VD(RR=2.60,95%CI=1.18-5.70;only one study),but not with AD(RR=2.00,95%CI=0.96-4.13;I^(2)=99.8%).MR analyses did not supported significant causal associations of IBD with dementia(dementia:odds ratio[OR]=1.01,95%CI=0.98-1.03;AD:OR=0.98,95%CI=0.95-1.01;VD:OR=1.02,95%CI=0.97-1.07).In addition,genetic correlation and co-localization analyses did not reveal any genetic associations between IBD and dementia.Conclusion Our study did not provide genetic evidence for a causal association between IBD and dementia risk.The increased risk of dementia observed in observational studies may be attributed to unobserved confounding factors or detection bias.展开更多
According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destru...According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN) real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system’s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.展开更多
The application of environment-behavior studies plays an important role in studying the renewal of shantytowns.One of the most humane ways of renewal is designing and constructing the necessary urban spatial environme...The application of environment-behavior studies plays an important role in studying the renewal of shantytowns.One of the most humane ways of renewal is designing and constructing the necessary urban spatial environment from the perspective of human daily behavior.Most of the shantytown renovation projects currently carried out in China are mainly focused on demolition and reconstruction,which not only incurs high costs but also damages the original social structure and economic model.During the process of shantytown renewal,it should improve the urban landscape,living environment,and life quality of residents,and ensure the daily life of shantytown residents without increasing their economic burden,and preserve the traces of urban development.In order to achieve this goal,it should explore the renewal strategies of shantytowns from the perspective of environment-behavior studies through behavior maps,on-site research,and literature review.Updating and design from a human perspective often achieve faster and better development;the renewal of shantytowns should be a bottom-up approach and start from a grassroots perspective,completing the renovation design through the composition of the population and behavioral patterns.展开更多
Amidst China's aggressive expansion of its high-speed rail network,the intersection of these lines with seismic fault zones has elevated the risk profile for high-speed rail travel.To counteract the potential dang...Amidst China's aggressive expansion of its high-speed rail network,the intersection of these lines with seismic fault zones has elevated the risk profile for high-speed rail travel.To counteract the potential dangers posed by seismic disturbances,China has introduced a comprehensive high-speed railway earthquake early-warning system.This article presents an in-depth examination of this system,encompassing aspects such as its developmental evolution,architectural design,and pivotal technologies.Furthermore,it ventures into the realm of future enhancements and developmental pathways for the system,fusing emergent findings from earthquake early warning research with advancements in artificial intelligence.展开更多
BACKGROUND Helicobacter pylori(H.pylori)infection is a prevalent disease encountered in military internal medicine and recognized as the main cause of dyspepsia,gastritis,and peptic ulcer,which are common diseases in ...BACKGROUND Helicobacter pylori(H.pylori)infection is a prevalent disease encountered in military internal medicine and recognized as the main cause of dyspepsia,gastritis,and peptic ulcer,which are common diseases in military personnel.Current guidelines in China state all patients with evidence of active infection with H.pylori are offered treatment.However,the prevalence of H.pylori infection and its regional distribution in the military population remain unclear,which hinders effective prevention and treatment strategies.Understanding the prevalence of H.pylori infection in the military population will aid in the development of customized strategies to better manage this infectious disease.AIM To investigate the prevalence of H.pylori infection in the Chinese military population in different geographic areas.METHODS This multicenter,retrospective study included 22421 individuals from five tertiary hospitals located in north,east,southwest,and northwest cities of China.H.pylori infection was identified using the urea breath test,which had been performed between January 2020 and December 2021.RESULTS Of the 22421 military service members,7416(33.1%)were urea breath test-positive.The highest prevalence of H.pylori was in the 30-39 years age group for military personnel,with an infection rate of 34.9%.The majority of infected subjects were younger than 40-years-old,accounting for 70.4%of the infected population.The individuals serviced in Lanzhou and Chengdu showed a higher infection prevalence than those in Beijing,Nanjing,and Guangzhou,with prevalence rates of 44.3%,37.9%,29.0%,31.1%,and 32.3%,respectively.CONCLUSION H.pylori infection remains a common infectious disease among military personnel in China and has a relatively high prevalence rate in northwest China.展开更多
As a large country in the world, it is both necessary and possible to develop and operate a pre-warning system for social stability, says Prof. Niu Wenyuan, chief scientist for strate-
BACKGROUND Patients with BRAF V600E mutant metastatic colorectal cancer(mCRC)have a low incidence rate,poor biological activity,suboptimal response to conventional treatments,and a poor prognosis.In the previous cohor...BACKGROUND Patients with BRAF V600E mutant metastatic colorectal cancer(mCRC)have a low incidence rate,poor biological activity,suboptimal response to conventional treatments,and a poor prognosis.In the previous cohort study on mCRC conducted by our team,it was observed that integrated Chinese and Western medicine treatment could significantly prolong the overall survival(OS)of patients with colorectal cancer.Therefore,we further explored the survival benefits in the population with BRAF V600E mutant mCRC.AIM To evaluate the efficacy of integrated Chinese and Western medicine in the treatment of BRAF V600E mutant metastatic colorectal cancer.METHODS A cohort study was conducted on patients with BRAF V600E mutant metastatic colorectal cancer admitted to Xiyuan Hospital of China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences and Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from January 2016 to December 2022.The patients were divided into two cohorts.RESULTS A total of 34 cases were included,with 23 in Chinese-Western medicine cohort(cohort A)and 11 in Western medicine cohort(cohort B).The median overall survival was 19.9 months in cohort A and 14.2 months in cohort B,with a statistically significant difference(P=0.038,hazard ratio=0.46).The 1-3-year survival rates were 95.65%(22/23),39.13%(9/23),and 26.09%(6/23)in cohort A,and 63.64%(7/11),18.18%(2/11),and 9.09%(1/11)in cohort B,respectively.Subgroup analysis showed statistically significant differences in median OS between the two cohorts in the right colon,liver metastasis,chemotherapy,and first-line treatment subgroups(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Integrated Chinese and Western medicine can prolong the survival and reduce the risk of death in patients with BRAF V600E mutant metastatic colorectal cancer,with more pronounced benefits observed in patients with right colon involvement,liver metastasis,combined chemotherapy,and first-line treatment.展开更多
Objective The relationship between non-high-density lipoprotein(NHDL)cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol(HDL-C)ratio(NHHR)and stoke remains unknown.This study aimed to evaluate the association between ...Objective The relationship between non-high-density lipoprotein(NHDL)cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol(HDL-C)ratio(NHHR)and stoke remains unknown.This study aimed to evaluate the association between the adult NHHR and stroke occurrence in the United States of America(USA).Methods To clarify the relationship between the NHHR and stroke risk,this study used a multivariable logistic regression model and a restricted cubic spline(RCS)model to investigate the association between the NHHR and stroke,and data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey(NHANES)from 2005 to 2018.Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results.Results This study included 29,928 adult participants,of which 1,165 participants had a history of stroke.Logistic regression analysis of variables demonstrated a positive association between NHHR and stroke(OR 1.24,95%CI:1.03-1.50,P=0.026).Compared with the lowest reference group of NHHR,participants in the second,third,and fourth quartile had a significantly increased risk of stroke after full adjustments(OR:1.35,95%CI:1.08-1.69)(OR:1.83,95%CI:1.42-2.36)(OR:2.04,95%CI:1.50-2.79).In the total population,a nonlinear dose-response relationship was observed between the NHHR and stroke risk(P non-linearity=0.002).This association remained significant in several subgroup analyses.Further investigation of the NHHR may enhance our understanding of stroke prevention and treatment.Conclusion Our findings suggest a positive correlation between the NHHR and an increased prevalence of stroke,potentially serving as a novel predictive factor for stroke.Timely intervention and management of the NHHR may effectively mitigate stroke occurrence.Prospective studies are required to validate this association and further explore the underlying biological mechanisms.展开更多
Objective:To explore the perspectives of high-risk pregnant women regarding the home care program for high-risk pregnancies.Methods:This qualitative study was conducted in a university hospital and 5 comprehensive hea...Objective:To explore the perspectives of high-risk pregnant women regarding the home care program for high-risk pregnancies.Methods:This qualitative study was conducted in a university hospital and 5 comprehensive health centers in Ahvaz,Iran,from February 2023 to July 2023.The sampling method used was purposive sampling considering the maximum possible diversity,which continued until data saturation.11 in-depth and semistructured interviews were conducted with high-risk pregnant women.Data were simultaneously analysed using Graneheim and Lundman content analysis by MAXQDA version 20 software.Results:Data analysis extracted 3 themes,12 categories,and 26 subcategories.The themes and categories were“high-risk pregnancy and related issues(pursuing treatment and paying attention to the high-risk situation by pregnant women,psychological aspect of high-risk pregnancy on pregnant women and caregivers,emotional and physical aspects of high-risk pregnancy,the consequences of high-risk pregnancy on the people around them and empowerment of high-risk pregnant women)”,“support dimension(family and community support for high-risk pregnant women)”,and“framework of program(acculturalization,means and equipment,security,manpower and the necessary arrangements for the home care)”.Conclusions:High-risk pregnancy affects various aspects of the lives of high-risk pregnant women and their families.Creating the necessary conditions for providing care at home plays a vital role in supporting high-risk pregnant women and removing related obstacles to receiving prenatal care in person.It will be especially beneficial for high-risk pregnant women in low-income areas.展开更多
Objective:To explain barriers to childbearing among working women from the perspective of working women and midwives.Methods:In this study,a qualitative study of content analysis method was employed.The study was cond...Objective:To explain barriers to childbearing among working women from the perspective of working women and midwives.Methods:In this study,a qualitative study of content analysis method was employed.The study was conducted from December 2021 to July 2022.The population consisted of working women and midwives.Data collection was conducted using semi-structured interviews and continued until data saturation was achieved.Through purposeful sampling,10 women and 11 midwives were selected as the sample.The data were analyzed by Graneheim and Lundman content analysis approach.For more rigorous,Nvivo 14 software was also used for data management,analysis,coding and organization of data.Results:This study included 21 women(10 women employees and 11 midwives)aged 25-43 years(for women employees)and 27-56 years(for midwives)with 1 to 34 years of job experience.In examination of participant’views about the barriers to childbearing,1124 codes were identified,of which we managed to extract six subthemes and two themes.Two themes emerged:“lack of social support and lack of family support”.Subthemes of“lack of social support”were“inadequate leave,long distance from workplace,and insufficient wages”.Subthemes of“lack of family support”were“lack of spouse support,lack of spouse's family support,and lack of their family support”.Conclusions:Different socioeconomic factors influence childbearing tendency in working women.Social and family supports play an important role in this regard.It is important to take these factors into account at the time of policymaking in the field of midwifery.展开更多
Objective The relationship between fish consumption and stroke is inconsistent,and it is uncertain whether this association varies across predicted stroke risks.Methods A cohort study comprising 95,800 participants fr...Objective The relationship between fish consumption and stroke is inconsistent,and it is uncertain whether this association varies across predicted stroke risks.Methods A cohort study comprising 95,800 participants from the Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China project was conducted.A standardized questionnaire was used to collect data on fish consumption.Participants were stratified into low-and moderate-to-high-risk categories based on their 10-year stroke risk prediction scores.Hazard ratios(HRs)and 95%confidence intervals(CIs)were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models and additive interaction by relative excess risk due to interaction(RERI),attributable proportion(AP),and synergy index(SI).Results During 703,869 person-years of follow-up,2,773 incident stroke events were identified.Higher fish consumption was associated with a lower risk of stroke,particularly among moderate-to-high-risk individuals(HR=0.53,95%CI:0.47-0.60)than among low-risk individuals(HR=0.64,95%CI:0.49-0.85).A significant additive interaction between fish consumption and predicted stroke risk was observed(RERI=4.08,95%CI:2.80-5.36;SI=1.64,95%CI:1.42-1.89;AP=0.36,95%CI:0.28-0.43).Conclusion Higher fish consumption was associated with a lower risk of stroke,and this beneficial association was more pronounced in individuals with moderate-to-high stroke risk.展开更多
BACKGROUND Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography is a challenging procedure involving bile duct cannulation.Despite the development of several cannulation devices,none have effectively facilitated the procedu...BACKGROUND Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography is a challenging procedure involving bile duct cannulation.Despite the development of several cannulation devices,none have effectively facilitated the procedure.AIM To evaluate the efficacy of a recently developed catheter for bile duct cannulation.METHODS We retrospectively examined 342 patients who underwent initial cholangiopan-creatography.We compared the success rate of bile duct cannulation and the incidence of complications between the groups using existing and novel catheters.RESULTS The overall success rates of bile duct cannulation were 98.3%and 99.1%in the existing and novel catheter groups,respectively(P=0.47).The bile duct cannulation rate using the standard technique was 73.0%and 82.1%in the existing and novel catheter groups,respectively(P=0.042).Furthermore,when catheterization was performed by expert physicians,the bile duct cannulation rate was significantly higher in the novel catheter group(81.3%)than in the existing catheter group(65.2%)(P=0.017).The incidence of difficult cannulation was also significantly lower in the novel catheter group(17.4%)than in the existing catheter group(33.0%)(P=0.019).CONCLUSION The novel catheter improved the bile duct cannulation rate using the standard technique and reduced the frequency of difficult cannulation cases,valuable tool in endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography procedures performed by experts.展开更多
BACKGROUND Gastrointestinal endoscopy has been widely used in the diagnosis and treatment of gastrointestinal diseases.A great many of studies on gastrointestinal endoscopy have been done.AIM To analyze the characteri...BACKGROUND Gastrointestinal endoscopy has been widely used in the diagnosis and treatment of gastrointestinal diseases.A great many of studies on gastrointestinal endoscopy have been done.AIM To analyze the characteristics of top 100 cited articles on gastrointestinal endoscopy.METHODS A bibliometric analysis was conducted.The publications and their features were extracted from the Web of Science Core Collection,Science Citation Index-Expanded database.Excel,Web of Science database and SPSS software were used to perform the statistical description and analysis.VOSviewer software and Map-Chart were responsible for the visualizations.RESULTS The top 100 cited articles were published between 1976 and 2022.The guidelines(52%)and clinical trials(37%)are the main article types,and average publication year of the guidelines is much later than that of the clinical trials(2015 vs 1998).Among the clinical trials,diagnostic study(27.0%),cohort study(21.6%),case series(13.5%)and cross-sectional study(10.8%)account for a large proportion.Average citations of different study types and designs of the enrolled studies are of no significant differences.Most of the 100 articles were published by European authors and recorded by the endoscopic journals(65%).Top journals in medicine,such as the Lancet,New England Journal of Medicine and JAMA,also reported studies in this field.The hot spots of involved diseases include neoplasm or cancer-related diseases,inflammatory diseases,obstructive diseases,gastrointestinal hemorrhage and ulcer.Endoscopic surgery,endoscopic therapy and stent placement are frequently studied.CONCLUSION Our research contributes to delineating the field and identifying the characteristics of the most highly cited articles.It is noteworthy that there is a significantly smaller number of clinical trials included compared to guidelines,indicating potential areas for future high-quality clinical trials.展开更多
BACKGROUND Gastric cancer(GC)poses a significant threat to public health.However,the clinicopathological features and tumor biological behaviors vary among the GC patients,leading to individual variations in lymph nod...BACKGROUND Gastric cancer(GC)poses a significant threat to public health.However,the clinicopathological features and tumor biological behaviors vary among the GC patients,leading to individual variations in lymph node metastasis.Consequently,the stratification of lymph node dissection according to the specific type,particularly upper GC,has emerged as a prominent area of research.AIM To investigate the distribution of metastatic lymph nodes in patients with upper and lower GC and to analyze the differences in related pathological elements and prognosis.METHODS Differential analysis between upper and lower GC patients with various clinicopathological factors was performed using the chi-square test and rank-sum regression models were used to analyze risk factors affecting patient prognosis.The Kaplan-Meier method was used to construct survival curves associated with prognostic risk factors for GC.RESULTS Significant differences were observed between the two GC populations regarding tumor diameter,histological grade,pT stage,pN stage,tumor-node-metastasis(pTNM)stage,vascular invasion,and adjuvant chemotherapy usage(all P<0.05).Lymph node metastasis rates were highest for Siewert type II patients in groups Nos.1,3,2 and 7;for Siewert type III patients in groups Nos.3,1,2 and 7;and for other/unclassified patients in groups Nos.1,3,7,2.In the lower GC samples,the sequences were Nos.3,6,7,4.Pathological type,pT stage,pTNM stage,and positive vascular invasion were independent risk factors for development of lymph node metastasis.Age,pathological type,pT stage,pN stage,pTNM stage,vascular invasion,and absence of adjuvant chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors.CONCLUSION Upper GC showed a significantly higher malignancy grade and different lymph node metastasis pattern than lower GC.展开更多
BACKGROUND Anxiety is a common comorbidity in patients with Crohn’s disease(CD).Data on the imaging characteristics of brain microstructure and cerebral perfusion in CD with anxiety are limited.AIM To compare the ima...BACKGROUND Anxiety is a common comorbidity in patients with Crohn’s disease(CD).Data on the imaging characteristics of brain microstructure and cerebral perfusion in CD with anxiety are limited.AIM To compare the imaging characteristics of brain microstructure and cerebral perfusion among CD patients with or without anxiety and healthy individuals.METHODS This prospective comparative study enrolled consecutive patients with active CD and healthy individuals who visited the study hospital between January 2022 and January 2023.Anxiety was measured using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-Anxiety.The imaging characteristics of brain microstructure and cerebral perfusion were measured by diffusion kurtosis imaging and intravoxel incoherent motion.RESULTSA total of 57 participants were enrolled. Among the patients with active CD, 16 had anxiety. Compared withhealthy individuals, patients with active CD demonstrated significantly lower radial kurtosis values in the rightcerebellar region 6, lower axial kurtosis (AK) values in the right insula, left superior temporal gyrus, and rightthalamus, and higher slow and fast apparent diffusion coefficients (ADCslow and ADCfast) in the bilateral frontal lobe,bilateral temporal lobe, and bilateral insular lobe (all P < 0.05). Compared with patients with CD without anxiety,patients with CD and anxiety exhibited significantly higher ADCslow values in the left insular lobe and lower AKvalues in the right insula and right anterior cuneus (all P < 0.05).CONCLUSIONThere are variations in brain microstructure and perfusion among CD patients with/without anxiety and healthyindividuals, suggesting potential use in assessing anxiety-related changes in active CD.展开更多
AIM:To assess the relationship between dietary inflammatory index(DII)and prevalence of glaucoma among individuals aged 40y and above in the United States.METHODS:Participants were drawn from 2 cycles of the National ...AIM:To assess the relationship between dietary inflammatory index(DII)and prevalence of glaucoma among individuals aged 40y and above in the United States.METHODS:Participants were drawn from 2 cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey(NHANES,2005-2008)for a cross-sectional study.DII was calculated from 24-hour dietary recall questionnaire conducted by experienced researchers and data analyzed in R according to the NHANES user guide,“Stratified Multi-stage Probability Sampling”.The relationship between DII and glaucoma was evaluated by multi-factor logistic regression analysis and the existence of a non-linear association examined by restricted cubic spline(RCS)analysis.RESULTS:A total of 5359 subjects were included and the cross-sectional analysis weighted to represent the US population of 109 million.DII was elevated in glaucoma patients(P<0.001)and smoking and alcohol use contributed to significant differences(P<0.001).DII correlated negatively with Healthy Eating Index(HEI)-2015(Spearman rank correlation coefficient,r=-0.49).RCS analysis showed a linear relationship between DII and glaucoma risk(P of non-linear relationship=0.575).CONCLUSION:An increased DII is strongly associated with high risk of glaucoma and diet-induced inflammation should be controlled to delay glaucoma progression.展开更多
By studying principles and methods related to early-warning model of plant diseases and using PSO method, parameter optimization was conducted to backward propagation neural network, and a pre-warning model for plant ...By studying principles and methods related to early-warning model of plant diseases and using PSO method, parameter optimization was conducted to backward propagation neural network, and a pre-warning model for plant diseases based on particle swarm and neural network algorithm was established. The test results showed that the construction of early-warning model is effective and feasible, which will provide a via- ble model structure to establish the effective early-warning platform.展开更多
Through the questionnaire survey and comparative studies on tourist satisfaction of tourism services among three world heritage sites,i.e.Huangshan Mountain,Lushan Mountain and Wuyi Mountain,this study pointed out the...Through the questionnaire survey and comparative studies on tourist satisfaction of tourism services among three world heritage sites,i.e.Huangshan Mountain,Lushan Mountain and Wuyi Mountain,this study pointed out the problems in tourism services of three scenic areas and then put forward relevant countermeasures for the management of scenic areas.展开更多
The mechanical parameters of materials in a dam body and dam foundation tend to change when dams are reinforced in aging processes.It is important to use an early-warning index to reflect the safety status of dams,par...The mechanical parameters of materials in a dam body and dam foundation tend to change when dams are reinforced in aging processes.It is important to use an early-warning index to reflect the safety status of dams,particularly of heightened projects in the impoundment period.Herein,a new method for monitoring the safety status of heightened dams is proposed based on the deformation monitoring data of a dam structure,a statistical model,and finite-element numerical simulation.First,a fast optimization inversion method for estimation of dam mechanical parameters was developed,which used the water pressure component extracted from a statistical model,an improved inversion objective function,and a genetic optimization iterative algorithm.Then,a finite element model of a heightened concrete gravity dam was established,and the deformation behavior of the dam with rising water levels in the impoundment period was simulated.Subsequently,mechanical parameters of aged dam parts were calculated using the fast optimization inversion method with simulated deformation and the water pressure deformation component obtained by the statistical model under the same conditions of water pressure change.Finally,a new earlywarning index of dam deformation was constructed by means of the forward-simulated deformation and other components of the statistical model.The early-warning index is useful for forecasting dam deformation under different water levels,especially high water levels.展开更多
The primary goal of Chinese agricultural development is to guarantee national food security and supply of major agricultural products. Hence, the scientiifc work on agricultural monitoring and early warning as wel as ...The primary goal of Chinese agricultural development is to guarantee national food security and supply of major agricultural products. Hence, the scientiifc work on agricultural monitoring and early warning as wel as agricultural outlook must be strengthened. In this study, we develop the China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System (CAMES) on the basis of a comparative study of domestic and international agricultural outlook models. The system is a dynamic and multi-market partial equilibrium model that integrates biological mechanisms with economic mechanisms. This system, which includes 11 categories of 953 kinds of agricultural products, could dynamical y project agricultural market supply and demand, assess food security, and conduct scenario analysis at different spatial levels, time scale levels, and macro-micro levels. Based on the CAMES, the production, consumption, and trade of the major agricultural products in China over the next decade are projected. The fol owing conclusions are drawn:i) The production of major agricultural products wil continue to grow steadily, mainly because of the increase in yield. i ) The growth of agricultural consumption wil be slightly higher than that of agricultural production. Meanwhile, a high self-sufifciency rate is expected for cereals such as rice, wheat, and maize, with the rate being stable at around 97%. i i) Agricultural trade wil continue to thrive. The growth of soybean and milk im-ports wil slow down, but the growth of traditional agricultural exports such as vegetables and fruits is expected to continue.展开更多
基金supported by the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2021M703366)Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(Grant No.KQTD20190929172835662).
文摘Objective Observational studies have found associations between inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)and the risk of dementia,including Alzheimer’s dementia(AD)and vascular dementia(VD);however,these findings are inconsistent.It remains unclear whether these associations are causal.Methods We conducted a meta-analysis by systematically searching for observational studies on the association between IBD and dementia.Mendelian randomization(MR)analysis based on summary genome-wide association studies(GWASs)was performed.Genetic correlation and Bayesian colocalization analyses were used to provide robust genetic evidence.Results Ten observational studies involving 80,565,688 participants were included in this metaanalysis.IBD was significantly associated with dementia(risk ratio[RR]=1.36,95%CI=1.04-1.78;I2=84.8%)and VD(RR=2.60,95%CI=1.18-5.70;only one study),but not with AD(RR=2.00,95%CI=0.96-4.13;I^(2)=99.8%).MR analyses did not supported significant causal associations of IBD with dementia(dementia:odds ratio[OR]=1.01,95%CI=0.98-1.03;AD:OR=0.98,95%CI=0.95-1.01;VD:OR=1.02,95%CI=0.97-1.07).In addition,genetic correlation and co-localization analyses did not reveal any genetic associations between IBD and dementia.Conclusion Our study did not provide genetic evidence for a causal association between IBD and dementia risk.The increased risk of dementia observed in observational studies may be attributed to unobserved confounding factors or detection bias.
基金Fund by the Ministry of Science and Technology, No.2002BA516A17 Foundation of Chinese Academy of Forestry Science, No.200114
文摘According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN) real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system’s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.
文摘The application of environment-behavior studies plays an important role in studying the renewal of shantytowns.One of the most humane ways of renewal is designing and constructing the necessary urban spatial environment from the perspective of human daily behavior.Most of the shantytown renovation projects currently carried out in China are mainly focused on demolition and reconstruction,which not only incurs high costs but also damages the original social structure and economic model.During the process of shantytown renewal,it should improve the urban landscape,living environment,and life quality of residents,and ensure the daily life of shantytown residents without increasing their economic burden,and preserve the traces of urban development.In order to achieve this goal,it should explore the renewal strategies of shantytowns from the perspective of environment-behavior studies through behavior maps,on-site research,and literature review.Updating and design from a human perspective often achieve faster and better development;the renewal of shantytowns should be a bottom-up approach and start from a grassroots perspective,completing the renovation design through the composition of the population and behavioral patterns.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Development Plan of China State Railway Group Co.,Ltd.(J2022G007)China Academy of Railway Sciences Group Co.,Ltd.(2023YJ103).
文摘Amidst China's aggressive expansion of its high-speed rail network,the intersection of these lines with seismic fault zones has elevated the risk profile for high-speed rail travel.To counteract the potential dangers posed by seismic disturbances,China has introduced a comprehensive high-speed railway earthquake early-warning system.This article presents an in-depth examination of this system,encompassing aspects such as its developmental evolution,architectural design,and pivotal technologies.Furthermore,it ventures into the realm of future enhancements and developmental pathways for the system,fusing emergent findings from earthquake early warning research with advancements in artificial intelligence.
文摘BACKGROUND Helicobacter pylori(H.pylori)infection is a prevalent disease encountered in military internal medicine and recognized as the main cause of dyspepsia,gastritis,and peptic ulcer,which are common diseases in military personnel.Current guidelines in China state all patients with evidence of active infection with H.pylori are offered treatment.However,the prevalence of H.pylori infection and its regional distribution in the military population remain unclear,which hinders effective prevention and treatment strategies.Understanding the prevalence of H.pylori infection in the military population will aid in the development of customized strategies to better manage this infectious disease.AIM To investigate the prevalence of H.pylori infection in the Chinese military population in different geographic areas.METHODS This multicenter,retrospective study included 22421 individuals from five tertiary hospitals located in north,east,southwest,and northwest cities of China.H.pylori infection was identified using the urea breath test,which had been performed between January 2020 and December 2021.RESULTS Of the 22421 military service members,7416(33.1%)were urea breath test-positive.The highest prevalence of H.pylori was in the 30-39 years age group for military personnel,with an infection rate of 34.9%.The majority of infected subjects were younger than 40-years-old,accounting for 70.4%of the infected population.The individuals serviced in Lanzhou and Chengdu showed a higher infection prevalence than those in Beijing,Nanjing,and Guangzhou,with prevalence rates of 44.3%,37.9%,29.0%,31.1%,and 32.3%,respectively.CONCLUSION H.pylori infection remains a common infectious disease among military personnel in China and has a relatively high prevalence rate in northwest China.
文摘As a large country in the world, it is both necessary and possible to develop and operate a pre-warning system for social stability, says Prof. Niu Wenyuan, chief scientist for strate-
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.82174461Hospital Capability Enhancement Project of Xiyuan Hospital,CACMS,No.XYZX0201-22Technology Innovation Project of China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences,No.CI2021A01811.
文摘BACKGROUND Patients with BRAF V600E mutant metastatic colorectal cancer(mCRC)have a low incidence rate,poor biological activity,suboptimal response to conventional treatments,and a poor prognosis.In the previous cohort study on mCRC conducted by our team,it was observed that integrated Chinese and Western medicine treatment could significantly prolong the overall survival(OS)of patients with colorectal cancer.Therefore,we further explored the survival benefits in the population with BRAF V600E mutant mCRC.AIM To evaluate the efficacy of integrated Chinese and Western medicine in the treatment of BRAF V600E mutant metastatic colorectal cancer.METHODS A cohort study was conducted on patients with BRAF V600E mutant metastatic colorectal cancer admitted to Xiyuan Hospital of China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences and Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from January 2016 to December 2022.The patients were divided into two cohorts.RESULTS A total of 34 cases were included,with 23 in Chinese-Western medicine cohort(cohort A)and 11 in Western medicine cohort(cohort B).The median overall survival was 19.9 months in cohort A and 14.2 months in cohort B,with a statistically significant difference(P=0.038,hazard ratio=0.46).The 1-3-year survival rates were 95.65%(22/23),39.13%(9/23),and 26.09%(6/23)in cohort A,and 63.64%(7/11),18.18%(2/11),and 9.09%(1/11)in cohort B,respectively.Subgroup analysis showed statistically significant differences in median OS between the two cohorts in the right colon,liver metastasis,chemotherapy,and first-line treatment subgroups(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Integrated Chinese and Western medicine can prolong the survival and reduce the risk of death in patients with BRAF V600E mutant metastatic colorectal cancer,with more pronounced benefits observed in patients with right colon involvement,liver metastasis,combined chemotherapy,and first-line treatment.
文摘Objective The relationship between non-high-density lipoprotein(NHDL)cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol(HDL-C)ratio(NHHR)and stoke remains unknown.This study aimed to evaluate the association between the adult NHHR and stroke occurrence in the United States of America(USA).Methods To clarify the relationship between the NHHR and stroke risk,this study used a multivariable logistic regression model and a restricted cubic spline(RCS)model to investigate the association between the NHHR and stroke,and data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey(NHANES)from 2005 to 2018.Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results.Results This study included 29,928 adult participants,of which 1,165 participants had a history of stroke.Logistic regression analysis of variables demonstrated a positive association between NHHR and stroke(OR 1.24,95%CI:1.03-1.50,P=0.026).Compared with the lowest reference group of NHHR,participants in the second,third,and fourth quartile had a significantly increased risk of stroke after full adjustments(OR:1.35,95%CI:1.08-1.69)(OR:1.83,95%CI:1.42-2.36)(OR:2.04,95%CI:1.50-2.79).In the total population,a nonlinear dose-response relationship was observed between the NHHR and stroke risk(P non-linearity=0.002).This association remained significant in several subgroup analyses.Further investigation of the NHHR may enhance our understanding of stroke prevention and treatment.Conclusion Our findings suggest a positive correlation between the NHHR and an increased prevalence of stroke,potentially serving as a novel predictive factor for stroke.Timely intervention and management of the NHHR may effectively mitigate stroke occurrence.Prospective studies are required to validate this association and further explore the underlying biological mechanisms.
文摘Objective:To explore the perspectives of high-risk pregnant women regarding the home care program for high-risk pregnancies.Methods:This qualitative study was conducted in a university hospital and 5 comprehensive health centers in Ahvaz,Iran,from February 2023 to July 2023.The sampling method used was purposive sampling considering the maximum possible diversity,which continued until data saturation.11 in-depth and semistructured interviews were conducted with high-risk pregnant women.Data were simultaneously analysed using Graneheim and Lundman content analysis by MAXQDA version 20 software.Results:Data analysis extracted 3 themes,12 categories,and 26 subcategories.The themes and categories were“high-risk pregnancy and related issues(pursuing treatment and paying attention to the high-risk situation by pregnant women,psychological aspect of high-risk pregnancy on pregnant women and caregivers,emotional and physical aspects of high-risk pregnancy,the consequences of high-risk pregnancy on the people around them and empowerment of high-risk pregnant women)”,“support dimension(family and community support for high-risk pregnant women)”,and“framework of program(acculturalization,means and equipment,security,manpower and the necessary arrangements for the home care)”.Conclusions:High-risk pregnancy affects various aspects of the lives of high-risk pregnant women and their families.Creating the necessary conditions for providing care at home plays a vital role in supporting high-risk pregnant women and removing related obstacles to receiving prenatal care in person.It will be especially beneficial for high-risk pregnant women in low-income areas.
基金This study was supported by Kerman University of medical sciences,with grant number:95000387.
文摘Objective:To explain barriers to childbearing among working women from the perspective of working women and midwives.Methods:In this study,a qualitative study of content analysis method was employed.The study was conducted from December 2021 to July 2022.The population consisted of working women and midwives.Data collection was conducted using semi-structured interviews and continued until data saturation was achieved.Through purposeful sampling,10 women and 11 midwives were selected as the sample.The data were analyzed by Graneheim and Lundman content analysis approach.For more rigorous,Nvivo 14 software was also used for data management,analysis,coding and organization of data.Results:This study included 21 women(10 women employees and 11 midwives)aged 25-43 years(for women employees)and 27-56 years(for midwives)with 1 to 34 years of job experience.In examination of participant’views about the barriers to childbearing,1124 codes were identified,of which we managed to extract six subthemes and two themes.Two themes emerged:“lack of social support and lack of family support”.Subthemes of“lack of social support”were“inadequate leave,long distance from workplace,and insufficient wages”.Subthemes of“lack of family support”were“lack of spouse support,lack of spouse's family support,and lack of their family support”.Conclusions:Different socioeconomic factors influence childbearing tendency in working women.Social and family supports play an important role in this regard.It is important to take these factors into account at the time of policymaking in the field of midwifery.
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences(CAMS)Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences(2021-I2M-1-010,2019-I2M-2-003,and 2017-I2M-1-004)the National High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding(2022-GSPGG-1,2022-GSP-GG-2)+2 种基金the Research Unit of Prospective Cohort of Cardiovascular Diseases and Cancers,CAMS(2019RU038)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFE0115300 and 2017YFC0211700)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(82030102,12126602).
文摘Objective The relationship between fish consumption and stroke is inconsistent,and it is uncertain whether this association varies across predicted stroke risks.Methods A cohort study comprising 95,800 participants from the Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China project was conducted.A standardized questionnaire was used to collect data on fish consumption.Participants were stratified into low-and moderate-to-high-risk categories based on their 10-year stroke risk prediction scores.Hazard ratios(HRs)and 95%confidence intervals(CIs)were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models and additive interaction by relative excess risk due to interaction(RERI),attributable proportion(AP),and synergy index(SI).Results During 703,869 person-years of follow-up,2,773 incident stroke events were identified.Higher fish consumption was associated with a lower risk of stroke,particularly among moderate-to-high-risk individuals(HR=0.53,95%CI:0.47-0.60)than among low-risk individuals(HR=0.64,95%CI:0.49-0.85).A significant additive interaction between fish consumption and predicted stroke risk was observed(RERI=4.08,95%CI:2.80-5.36;SI=1.64,95%CI:1.42-1.89;AP=0.36,95%CI:0.28-0.43).Conclusion Higher fish consumption was associated with a lower risk of stroke,and this beneficial association was more pronounced in individuals with moderate-to-high stroke risk.
文摘BACKGROUND Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography is a challenging procedure involving bile duct cannulation.Despite the development of several cannulation devices,none have effectively facilitated the procedure.AIM To evaluate the efficacy of a recently developed catheter for bile duct cannulation.METHODS We retrospectively examined 342 patients who underwent initial cholangiopan-creatography.We compared the success rate of bile duct cannulation and the incidence of complications between the groups using existing and novel catheters.RESULTS The overall success rates of bile duct cannulation were 98.3%and 99.1%in the existing and novel catheter groups,respectively(P=0.47).The bile duct cannulation rate using the standard technique was 73.0%and 82.1%in the existing and novel catheter groups,respectively(P=0.042).Furthermore,when catheterization was performed by expert physicians,the bile duct cannulation rate was significantly higher in the novel catheter group(81.3%)than in the existing catheter group(65.2%)(P=0.017).The incidence of difficult cannulation was also significantly lower in the novel catheter group(17.4%)than in the existing catheter group(33.0%)(P=0.019).CONCLUSION The novel catheter improved the bile duct cannulation rate using the standard technique and reduced the frequency of difficult cannulation cases,valuable tool in endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography procedures performed by experts.
文摘BACKGROUND Gastrointestinal endoscopy has been widely used in the diagnosis and treatment of gastrointestinal diseases.A great many of studies on gastrointestinal endoscopy have been done.AIM To analyze the characteristics of top 100 cited articles on gastrointestinal endoscopy.METHODS A bibliometric analysis was conducted.The publications and their features were extracted from the Web of Science Core Collection,Science Citation Index-Expanded database.Excel,Web of Science database and SPSS software were used to perform the statistical description and analysis.VOSviewer software and Map-Chart were responsible for the visualizations.RESULTS The top 100 cited articles were published between 1976 and 2022.The guidelines(52%)and clinical trials(37%)are the main article types,and average publication year of the guidelines is much later than that of the clinical trials(2015 vs 1998).Among the clinical trials,diagnostic study(27.0%),cohort study(21.6%),case series(13.5%)and cross-sectional study(10.8%)account for a large proportion.Average citations of different study types and designs of the enrolled studies are of no significant differences.Most of the 100 articles were published by European authors and recorded by the endoscopic journals(65%).Top journals in medicine,such as the Lancet,New England Journal of Medicine and JAMA,also reported studies in this field.The hot spots of involved diseases include neoplasm or cancer-related diseases,inflammatory diseases,obstructive diseases,gastrointestinal hemorrhage and ulcer.Endoscopic surgery,endoscopic therapy and stent placement are frequently studied.CONCLUSION Our research contributes to delineating the field and identifying the characteristics of the most highly cited articles.It is noteworthy that there is a significantly smaller number of clinical trials included compared to guidelines,indicating potential areas for future high-quality clinical trials.
文摘BACKGROUND Gastric cancer(GC)poses a significant threat to public health.However,the clinicopathological features and tumor biological behaviors vary among the GC patients,leading to individual variations in lymph node metastasis.Consequently,the stratification of lymph node dissection according to the specific type,particularly upper GC,has emerged as a prominent area of research.AIM To investigate the distribution of metastatic lymph nodes in patients with upper and lower GC and to analyze the differences in related pathological elements and prognosis.METHODS Differential analysis between upper and lower GC patients with various clinicopathological factors was performed using the chi-square test and rank-sum regression models were used to analyze risk factors affecting patient prognosis.The Kaplan-Meier method was used to construct survival curves associated with prognostic risk factors for GC.RESULTS Significant differences were observed between the two GC populations regarding tumor diameter,histological grade,pT stage,pN stage,tumor-node-metastasis(pTNM)stage,vascular invasion,and adjuvant chemotherapy usage(all P<0.05).Lymph node metastasis rates were highest for Siewert type II patients in groups Nos.1,3,2 and 7;for Siewert type III patients in groups Nos.3,1,2 and 7;and for other/unclassified patients in groups Nos.1,3,7,2.In the lower GC samples,the sequences were Nos.3,6,7,4.Pathological type,pT stage,pTNM stage,and positive vascular invasion were independent risk factors for development of lymph node metastasis.Age,pathological type,pT stage,pN stage,pTNM stage,vascular invasion,and absence of adjuvant chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors.CONCLUSION Upper GC showed a significantly higher malignancy grade and different lymph node metastasis pattern than lower GC.
基金Ethics Committee of Affiliated Changzhou Second People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University(approval number KY039-01).
文摘BACKGROUND Anxiety is a common comorbidity in patients with Crohn’s disease(CD).Data on the imaging characteristics of brain microstructure and cerebral perfusion in CD with anxiety are limited.AIM To compare the imaging characteristics of brain microstructure and cerebral perfusion among CD patients with or without anxiety and healthy individuals.METHODS This prospective comparative study enrolled consecutive patients with active CD and healthy individuals who visited the study hospital between January 2022 and January 2023.Anxiety was measured using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-Anxiety.The imaging characteristics of brain microstructure and cerebral perfusion were measured by diffusion kurtosis imaging and intravoxel incoherent motion.RESULTSA total of 57 participants were enrolled. Among the patients with active CD, 16 had anxiety. Compared withhealthy individuals, patients with active CD demonstrated significantly lower radial kurtosis values in the rightcerebellar region 6, lower axial kurtosis (AK) values in the right insula, left superior temporal gyrus, and rightthalamus, and higher slow and fast apparent diffusion coefficients (ADCslow and ADCfast) in the bilateral frontal lobe,bilateral temporal lobe, and bilateral insular lobe (all P < 0.05). Compared with patients with CD without anxiety,patients with CD and anxiety exhibited significantly higher ADCslow values in the left insular lobe and lower AKvalues in the right insula and right anterior cuneus (all P < 0.05).CONCLUSIONThere are variations in brain microstructure and perfusion among CD patients with/without anxiety and healthyindividuals, suggesting potential use in assessing anxiety-related changes in active CD.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.82074500)CACMS Innovation Fund(No.CI2021A02605)+1 种基金Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine of Zhejiang Province(No.2024ZR029)Science and Technology Program of Wenzhou City(No.Y2023210).
文摘AIM:To assess the relationship between dietary inflammatory index(DII)and prevalence of glaucoma among individuals aged 40y and above in the United States.METHODS:Participants were drawn from 2 cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey(NHANES,2005-2008)for a cross-sectional study.DII was calculated from 24-hour dietary recall questionnaire conducted by experienced researchers and data analyzed in R according to the NHANES user guide,“Stratified Multi-stage Probability Sampling”.The relationship between DII and glaucoma was evaluated by multi-factor logistic regression analysis and the existence of a non-linear association examined by restricted cubic spline(RCS)analysis.RESULTS:A total of 5359 subjects were included and the cross-sectional analysis weighted to represent the US population of 109 million.DII was elevated in glaucoma patients(P<0.001)and smoking and alcohol use contributed to significant differences(P<0.001).DII correlated negatively with Healthy Eating Index(HEI)-2015(Spearman rank correlation coefficient,r=-0.49).RCS analysis showed a linear relationship between DII and glaucoma risk(P of non-linear relationship=0.575).CONCLUSION:An increased DII is strongly associated with high risk of glaucoma and diet-induced inflammation should be controlled to delay glaucoma progression.
基金Supported by a Grant from the Science and Technology Project ofYunnan Province(2006NG02)~~
文摘By studying principles and methods related to early-warning model of plant diseases and using PSO method, parameter optimization was conducted to backward propagation neural network, and a pre-warning model for plant diseases based on particle swarm and neural network algorithm was established. The test results showed that the construction of early-warning model is effective and feasible, which will provide a via- ble model structure to establish the effective early-warning platform.
文摘Through the questionnaire survey and comparative studies on tourist satisfaction of tourism services among three world heritage sites,i.e.Huangshan Mountain,Lushan Mountain and Wuyi Mountain,this study pointed out the problems in tourism services of three scenic areas and then put forward relevant countermeasures for the management of scenic areas.
基金This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC0407104)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.52079049 and 51739003)+1 种基金the Central University Basic Research Project(Grant No.B200202160)the Water Science Project of Xinjiang(Grant No.YF 2020-05).
文摘The mechanical parameters of materials in a dam body and dam foundation tend to change when dams are reinforced in aging processes.It is important to use an early-warning index to reflect the safety status of dams,particularly of heightened projects in the impoundment period.Herein,a new method for monitoring the safety status of heightened dams is proposed based on the deformation monitoring data of a dam structure,a statistical model,and finite-element numerical simulation.First,a fast optimization inversion method for estimation of dam mechanical parameters was developed,which used the water pressure component extracted from a statistical model,an improved inversion objective function,and a genetic optimization iterative algorithm.Then,a finite element model of a heightened concrete gravity dam was established,and the deformation behavior of the dam with rising water levels in the impoundment period was simulated.Subsequently,mechanical parameters of aged dam parts were calculated using the fast optimization inversion method with simulated deformation and the water pressure deformation component obtained by the statistical model under the same conditions of water pressure change.Finally,a new earlywarning index of dam deformation was constructed by means of the forward-simulated deformation and other components of the statistical model.The early-warning index is useful for forecasting dam deformation under different water levels,especially high water levels.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71303238)the National Science and Technology Support Plan Projects (2012BAH20B04)the compilation group of the China Agricultural Outlook Report (2015–2024)
文摘The primary goal of Chinese agricultural development is to guarantee national food security and supply of major agricultural products. Hence, the scientiifc work on agricultural monitoring and early warning as wel as agricultural outlook must be strengthened. In this study, we develop the China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System (CAMES) on the basis of a comparative study of domestic and international agricultural outlook models. The system is a dynamic and multi-market partial equilibrium model that integrates biological mechanisms with economic mechanisms. This system, which includes 11 categories of 953 kinds of agricultural products, could dynamical y project agricultural market supply and demand, assess food security, and conduct scenario analysis at different spatial levels, time scale levels, and macro-micro levels. Based on the CAMES, the production, consumption, and trade of the major agricultural products in China over the next decade are projected. The fol owing conclusions are drawn:i) The production of major agricultural products wil continue to grow steadily, mainly because of the increase in yield. i ) The growth of agricultural consumption wil be slightly higher than that of agricultural production. Meanwhile, a high self-sufifciency rate is expected for cereals such as rice, wheat, and maize, with the rate being stable at around 97%. i i) Agricultural trade wil continue to thrive. The growth of soybean and milk im-ports wil slow down, but the growth of traditional agricultural exports such as vegetables and fruits is expected to continue.