The eco-environmental restoration has been a chief task of the western development strategies carried out by the central and local governments of China since the late 1990s, and the ecological de-farming has been rega...The eco-environmental restoration has been a chief task of the western development strategies carried out by the central and local governments of China since the late 1990s, and the ecological de-farming has been regarded as a powerful measure for the ecological restoration in the Loess Plateau and the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. "Relieving and de-farming" (RD) and "rebuilding terrace and de-farming" (RTD) are two more mature ones among various de-farming modes. Taking the loess hilly-gully region as a case, this paper summarized the basic characteristics of RD and RTD modes, calculated the sizes of de-farming slope farmland, rebuilt terraces, enlarged garden plots and restored vegetation, and compared the differences of two modes in terms of de-farming area, ecological reestablishment index, investment demand amount and benefits. The results showed that RTD mode has many advantages, including suitable investment, sufficient grain supply and great benefits, and will be the best ecological reestablishment mode in the loess hilly-gully region, and RD mode which is being carried out in this region should be replaced by RTD mode as soon as possible.展开更多
Under the demand of urban expansion and the constraints of China’s’National Main Functional Area Planning’policy,urban agglomerations are facing with a huge contradiction between land utilization and ecological pro...Under the demand of urban expansion and the constraints of China’s’National Main Functional Area Planning’policy,urban agglomerations are facing with a huge contradiction between land utilization and ecological protection,especially for HarbinChangchun urban agglomeration who owns a large number of land used for the protection of agricultural production and ecological function.To alleviate this contradiction and provide insight into future land use patterns under different ecological constraints’scenarios,we introduced the patch-based land use simulation(PLUS)model and simulated urban expansion of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration.After verifying the accuracy of the simulation result in 2018,we predicted future urban expansion under the constraints of three different ecological scenarios in 2026.The morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)method and minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model were also introduced to identify different levels of ecological security pattern(ESP)as ecological constraints.The predicted result of the optimal protection(OP)scenario showed less proportion of water and forest than those of natural expansion(NE)and basic protection(BP)scenarios in 2026.The conclusions are that the PLUS model can improve the simulation accuracy at urban agglomeration scale compared with other cellular automata(CA)models,and the future urban expansion under OP scenario has the least threat to the ecosystem,while the expansion under the natural expansion(NE)scenario poses the greatest threat to the ecosystem.Combined with the MSPA and MCR methods,PLUS model can also be used in other spatial simulations of urban agglomerations under ecological constraints.展开更多
Rapid urbanization leads to dramatic changes in land use patterns,and the land use/cover change(LUCC)can reflect the spatial impact of urbanization on the ecological environment.Simulating the process of LUCC and pred...Rapid urbanization leads to dramatic changes in land use patterns,and the land use/cover change(LUCC)can reflect the spatial impact of urbanization on the ecological environment.Simulating the process of LUCC and predicting the ecological risk future changes can provide supports for urban ecological management.Taking the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration(YRDUA),China as the study area,four developmental scenarios were set on the basis of the land use data from 2005 to 2015.The temporal land use changes were predicted by the integration of the system dynamic and the future land use simulation(SD-FLUS)model,and the geographically weighted regression(GWR)model was used to identify the spatial heterogeneity and evolution characteristics between ecological risk index(ERI)and socio-economic driving forces.Results showed that:1)From 2005 to 2015,the expansion of construction land(7670.24 km^(2))mainly came from the occupation of cultivated land(7854.22 km2).The Kappa coefficient of the SD-FLUS model was 0.886,indicating that this model could be used to predict the future land use changes in the YRDUA.2)Gross domestic production(GDP)and population density(POP)showed a positive effect on the ERI,and the impact of POP exceeded that of GDP.The ERI showed the characteristics of zonal diffusion and a slight upward trend,and the high ecological risk region increased by 6.09%,with the largest increase.3)Under different developmental scenarios,the land use and ecological risk patterns varied.The construction land is increased by 5.76%,7.41%,5.25%and 6.06%,respectively.And the high ecological risk region accounted for 12.71%,15.06%,11.89%,and 12.94%,correspondingly.In Scenario D,the structure of land use and ecological risk pattern was better compared with other scenarios considering the needs of rapid economic and ecological protection.This study is helpful to understand the spatio-temporal pattern and demand of land use types,grasp the ecological security pattern of large-scale areas,and provide scientific basis for the territory development of urban agglomeration in the future.展开更多
Based on the climatic data and other statistics of climatic data of 54 meteorological stations from 1956 to 2005 in Liangning Province,the annual and seasonal light,heat and water and the like major elements of climat...Based on the climatic data and other statistics of climatic data of 54 meteorological stations from 1956 to 2005 in Liangning Province,the annual and seasonal light,heat and water and the like major elements of climatic resources are diagnosed and analyzed by using the method of linear climate trend rate. The results show that warming trend is 0.25 ℃/10 a,the precipitation decrease gradually by 2.2 mm/a and the decreasing trend of solar radiation and hours of sunshine is not dramatic. The overall climate change trend is warming and drying,featuring "significantly increased temperature,the decreased precipitation and sunshine". These features are significant in autumn,thus leading to the trend of moving west and retreating east of the phenology boundaries. The results of scenario analysis on ecological security show that the ecological risk is spreading rapidly from the northwest to the east and to the south and form the southeastern and southern coastal line to the inland;different ecological land-use system have different ecological fragility. Specifically,the bare land and low coverage grassland have highest ecological vulnerability,while the forest and paddy filed have lowest ecological vulnerability. Therefore,suggestions on the ecological land use are put forward in terms of maintaining the overall ecological land use balance,saving water and adapting to climate change.展开更多
The socio-ecological environmental problem caused by the development of coalbed methane(CBM)is becoming more serious,so it is very significant for accelerating the development of CBM industrialization to identify the ...The socio-ecological environmental problem caused by the development of coalbed methane(CBM)is becoming more serious,so it is very significant for accelerating the development of CBM industrialization to identify the main influential factors of socioecological environmental risks and take effective risk prevention measures.Based on the triangular fuzzy number method,this paper firstly establishes a comprehensive correlation matrix.Then,the affected factors of socio-ecological environmental risks are analyzed by the DEMATEL method during the development of CBM.Then according to the aspects of centrality and causality,the key indicators are determined.Furthermore,the scenario simulation based on the FCM,the steady-state value and the comprehensive importance of key indicators,and the core indicators are selected.Finally,the scenario simulation of risk management countermeasure is done.The results show that:①The index weights are calculated by the triangular fuzzy numbers,and the correlation matrix in DEMATEL is obtained by the weight ratio,which reduces the shortcomings and the subjectivity of traditional DEMATEL method.②The correlation matrix in FCM is established based on the comprehensive correlation matrix in the above improved DEMATEL,which not only makes the FCM model more comprehensive and reduces the difficulty that the FCM correlation matrix is obtained considering the indirect influence relationship between indicators,but also makes up for the disadvantages that DEMATEL excludes during the selection of the core indexes,which are the considerations of the dynamic change of the importance of the indicators.③The rate of forestry and grass coverage,the ratio of investment in prevention and construction,the pollution index of soil Merlot,the reliability of machinery and equipment,the standard evaluation index of major pollution factors of underground water,and the ability of personal risk prevention are the key indicators,in which the rate of forestry and grass coverage,the ratio of investment in prevention and construction,and the reliability of machinery and equipment are the core indicators and are extremely important for the management of socio-ecological environmental risks during the development of coalbed methane.④The results of the scenario simulation of risk management countermeasure show that the core variables affect the socio-ecological environmental risks through such indicators as the degree of production mechanization,the degree of demolition and resettlement,and the ratio of economic loss by the influenced mechanism analysis;the ratio of investment in prevention and construction has the greatest impact on the socio-ecological environment risks in the early stage of CMB development,while the rate of forestry and grass coverage is the most important in the middle and late stages by the influenced result analysis.Therefore,this paper puts forward some corresponding stage suggestions on the prevention and control of socio-ecological environmental risks during the CMB development.In the early stage of CMB development,the ratio of investment in prevention and construction should be increased.In the middle stage,it is very important to reduce the damage of vegetation regions and to improve the reliability of machinery and equipment;in the late stage,the investment in prevention and construction should be increased steadily and the recovery of damaged vegetation areas should be focused on.展开更多
针对滏阳河流域断流河道生态修复的问题,为了实现断流河道尽可能恢复有水时间并且恢复基本生态功能的目标,基于节水措施和调水工程现状,通过建立滏阳河流域SWAT(soil and water assessment tool)水文模型,在模型中设置不同补水水量、补...针对滏阳河流域断流河道生态修复的问题,为了实现断流河道尽可能恢复有水时间并且恢复基本生态功能的目标,基于节水措施和调水工程现状,通过建立滏阳河流域SWAT(soil and water assessment tool)水文模型,在模型中设置不同补水水量、补水方式的生态补水情景,分析不同情景下断流河道断面的径流量变化和恢复有水天数,并结合生态流量评价标准评价不同情景的河流生态恢复效果。结果表明:滏阳河流域邯郸断面在节水情景和调水情景中恢复河流生态效果较好,在通过上游节水措施和补充年调水1.00×10^(8)m^(3)/a的情景下,可以达到5—10月恢复有水184 d、恢复径流量3486.7×10^(4)m^(3)/a的目标;年内恢复径流峰值在8月中旬,并且河道年均径流量可以恢复到“好”等级的生态流量标准。滏阳河下游邢台断面在节水情景和调水情景下恢复径流量较少,河道有水天数不达标,需要在上游节水条件下补充外来调水水量1.50×10^(8)m^(3)/a来达到恢复年有水天数304 d、恢复径流量1906.5×10^(4)m^(3)/a的目标,年内恢复径流峰值分别在3月中旬和8月中旬;并且在达到恢复有水目标的情景下邢台断面仅达到“一般”等级的生态流量标准,需要考虑增加调水水量进行分时段单点位补水的补水方案。展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China No.40371051+1 种基金 Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences No.KZCX1-6-2-6
文摘The eco-environmental restoration has been a chief task of the western development strategies carried out by the central and local governments of China since the late 1990s, and the ecological de-farming has been regarded as a powerful measure for the ecological restoration in the Loess Plateau and the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. "Relieving and de-farming" (RD) and "rebuilding terrace and de-farming" (RTD) are two more mature ones among various de-farming modes. Taking the loess hilly-gully region as a case, this paper summarized the basic characteristics of RD and RTD modes, calculated the sizes of de-farming slope farmland, rebuilt terraces, enlarged garden plots and restored vegetation, and compared the differences of two modes in terms of de-farming area, ecological reestablishment index, investment demand amount and benefits. The results showed that RTD mode has many advantages, including suitable investment, sufficient grain supply and great benefits, and will be the best ecological reestablishment mode in the loess hilly-gully region, and RD mode which is being carried out in this region should be replaced by RTD mode as soon as possible.
基金Under the auspices of National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFC0704705)。
文摘Under the demand of urban expansion and the constraints of China’s’National Main Functional Area Planning’policy,urban agglomerations are facing with a huge contradiction between land utilization and ecological protection,especially for HarbinChangchun urban agglomeration who owns a large number of land used for the protection of agricultural production and ecological function.To alleviate this contradiction and provide insight into future land use patterns under different ecological constraints’scenarios,we introduced the patch-based land use simulation(PLUS)model and simulated urban expansion of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration.After verifying the accuracy of the simulation result in 2018,we predicted future urban expansion under the constraints of three different ecological scenarios in 2026.The morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)method and minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model were also introduced to identify different levels of ecological security pattern(ESP)as ecological constraints.The predicted result of the optimal protection(OP)scenario showed less proportion of water and forest than those of natural expansion(NE)and basic protection(BP)scenarios in 2026.The conclusions are that the PLUS model can improve the simulation accuracy at urban agglomeration scale compared with other cellular automata(CA)models,and the future urban expansion under OP scenario has the least threat to the ecosystem,while the expansion under the natural expansion(NE)scenario poses the greatest threat to the ecosystem.Combined with the MSPA and MCR methods,PLUS model can also be used in other spatial simulations of urban agglomerations under ecological constraints.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41961027)Key Talents Project of Gansu Province(No.2021RCXM073)Foundation of A Hundred Youth Talents Training Program of Lanzhou Jiaotong University。
文摘Rapid urbanization leads to dramatic changes in land use patterns,and the land use/cover change(LUCC)can reflect the spatial impact of urbanization on the ecological environment.Simulating the process of LUCC and predicting the ecological risk future changes can provide supports for urban ecological management.Taking the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration(YRDUA),China as the study area,four developmental scenarios were set on the basis of the land use data from 2005 to 2015.The temporal land use changes were predicted by the integration of the system dynamic and the future land use simulation(SD-FLUS)model,and the geographically weighted regression(GWR)model was used to identify the spatial heterogeneity and evolution characteristics between ecological risk index(ERI)and socio-economic driving forces.Results showed that:1)From 2005 to 2015,the expansion of construction land(7670.24 km^(2))mainly came from the occupation of cultivated land(7854.22 km2).The Kappa coefficient of the SD-FLUS model was 0.886,indicating that this model could be used to predict the future land use changes in the YRDUA.2)Gross domestic production(GDP)and population density(POP)showed a positive effect on the ERI,and the impact of POP exceeded that of GDP.The ERI showed the characteristics of zonal diffusion and a slight upward trend,and the high ecological risk region increased by 6.09%,with the largest increase.3)Under different developmental scenarios,the land use and ecological risk patterns varied.The construction land is increased by 5.76%,7.41%,5.25%and 6.06%,respectively.And the high ecological risk region accounted for 12.71%,15.06%,11.89%,and 12.94%,correspondingly.In Scenario D,the structure of land use and ecological risk pattern was better compared with other scenarios considering the needs of rapid economic and ecological protection.This study is helpful to understand the spatio-temporal pattern and demand of land use types,grasp the ecological security pattern of large-scale areas,and provide scientific basis for the territory development of urban agglomeration in the future.
文摘Based on the climatic data and other statistics of climatic data of 54 meteorological stations from 1956 to 2005 in Liangning Province,the annual and seasonal light,heat and water and the like major elements of climatic resources are diagnosed and analyzed by using the method of linear climate trend rate. The results show that warming trend is 0.25 ℃/10 a,the precipitation decrease gradually by 2.2 mm/a and the decreasing trend of solar radiation and hours of sunshine is not dramatic. The overall climate change trend is warming and drying,featuring "significantly increased temperature,the decreased precipitation and sunshine". These features are significant in autumn,thus leading to the trend of moving west and retreating east of the phenology boundaries. The results of scenario analysis on ecological security show that the ecological risk is spreading rapidly from the northwest to the east and to the south and form the southeastern and southern coastal line to the inland;different ecological land-use system have different ecological fragility. Specifically,the bare land and low coverage grassland have highest ecological vulnerability,while the forest and paddy filed have lowest ecological vulnerability. Therefore,suggestions on the ecological land use are put forward in terms of maintaining the overall ecological land use balance,saving water and adapting to climate change.
文摘The socio-ecological environmental problem caused by the development of coalbed methane(CBM)is becoming more serious,so it is very significant for accelerating the development of CBM industrialization to identify the main influential factors of socioecological environmental risks and take effective risk prevention measures.Based on the triangular fuzzy number method,this paper firstly establishes a comprehensive correlation matrix.Then,the affected factors of socio-ecological environmental risks are analyzed by the DEMATEL method during the development of CBM.Then according to the aspects of centrality and causality,the key indicators are determined.Furthermore,the scenario simulation based on the FCM,the steady-state value and the comprehensive importance of key indicators,and the core indicators are selected.Finally,the scenario simulation of risk management countermeasure is done.The results show that:①The index weights are calculated by the triangular fuzzy numbers,and the correlation matrix in DEMATEL is obtained by the weight ratio,which reduces the shortcomings and the subjectivity of traditional DEMATEL method.②The correlation matrix in FCM is established based on the comprehensive correlation matrix in the above improved DEMATEL,which not only makes the FCM model more comprehensive and reduces the difficulty that the FCM correlation matrix is obtained considering the indirect influence relationship between indicators,but also makes up for the disadvantages that DEMATEL excludes during the selection of the core indexes,which are the considerations of the dynamic change of the importance of the indicators.③The rate of forestry and grass coverage,the ratio of investment in prevention and construction,the pollution index of soil Merlot,the reliability of machinery and equipment,the standard evaluation index of major pollution factors of underground water,and the ability of personal risk prevention are the key indicators,in which the rate of forestry and grass coverage,the ratio of investment in prevention and construction,and the reliability of machinery and equipment are the core indicators and are extremely important for the management of socio-ecological environmental risks during the development of coalbed methane.④The results of the scenario simulation of risk management countermeasure show that the core variables affect the socio-ecological environmental risks through such indicators as the degree of production mechanization,the degree of demolition and resettlement,and the ratio of economic loss by the influenced mechanism analysis;the ratio of investment in prevention and construction has the greatest impact on the socio-ecological environment risks in the early stage of CMB development,while the rate of forestry and grass coverage is the most important in the middle and late stages by the influenced result analysis.Therefore,this paper puts forward some corresponding stage suggestions on the prevention and control of socio-ecological environmental risks during the CMB development.In the early stage of CMB development,the ratio of investment in prevention and construction should be increased.In the middle stage,it is very important to reduce the damage of vegetation regions and to improve the reliability of machinery and equipment;in the late stage,the investment in prevention and construction should be increased steadily and the recovery of damaged vegetation areas should be focused on.
文摘针对滏阳河流域断流河道生态修复的问题,为了实现断流河道尽可能恢复有水时间并且恢复基本生态功能的目标,基于节水措施和调水工程现状,通过建立滏阳河流域SWAT(soil and water assessment tool)水文模型,在模型中设置不同补水水量、补水方式的生态补水情景,分析不同情景下断流河道断面的径流量变化和恢复有水天数,并结合生态流量评价标准评价不同情景的河流生态恢复效果。结果表明:滏阳河流域邯郸断面在节水情景和调水情景中恢复河流生态效果较好,在通过上游节水措施和补充年调水1.00×10^(8)m^(3)/a的情景下,可以达到5—10月恢复有水184 d、恢复径流量3486.7×10^(4)m^(3)/a的目标;年内恢复径流峰值在8月中旬,并且河道年均径流量可以恢复到“好”等级的生态流量标准。滏阳河下游邢台断面在节水情景和调水情景下恢复径流量较少,河道有水天数不达标,需要在上游节水条件下补充外来调水水量1.50×10^(8)m^(3)/a来达到恢复年有水天数304 d、恢复径流量1906.5×10^(4)m^(3)/a的目标,年内恢复径流峰值分别在3月中旬和8月中旬;并且在达到恢复有水目标的情景下邢台断面仅达到“一般”等级的生态流量标准,需要考虑增加调水水量进行分时段单点位补水的补水方案。