Trends in per capita ecological footprint and biocapacity in China 1949-2013

This paper proposes two concepts: the ecological footprint component index(EFCI) and the biocapacity component index(BCCI), based on the ecological footprint(EF) and Shannon entropy approaches. Per capita EFCI and BCCI in China 1949-2013 are analyzed using empirical mode decomposition(EMD). Nonlinear models of per capita EFCI and BCCI in China 1949-2013 are presented and their cycles and predictions from 2014 to 2023 are analyzed. The results over the last 65 years show:(1) EFCI in China has increased constantly with fluctuations, while BCCI has slowly decreased. Their annual change rates are 2.81% and-1.26%, respectively. The increasing EFCI indicates a gradual improvement in China's sustainable development potential; the decreasing BCCI indicates severe environmental and population challenges.(2) The cycles of per capita EFCI have periods of 5.4 and 16.3 years, while cycles of per capita BCCI have periods of 3.6, 13,and 21.7 years. The predictive models indicate that EFCI will first decrease, reaching 0.02725 in2014, and will subsequently increase to 0.03261 in 2021. BCCI will increase, reaching 0.01365 in2014 and 0.01541 in 2022. EFCI and BCCI will reach 0.03037 and 0.01537, respectively, in 2023.Policymakers should ensure that the EFCI and BCCI increase in 2023.

中国人均生态足迹和生物承载力构成的变动规律

基于熵值法提出能够衡量生态足迹和生物承载力构成多样性的生态足迹构成指数和生物承载力构成指数两个新概念，计算并构建了中国人均生态足迹构成指数和生物承载力构成指数较为理想的ARIMA预测模型分别为ARIMA（2，1，1）、ARIMA（1，1，1）。结果表明，2006-2010年，中国人均生态足迹构成指数将在波动中有所下降，生物承载力构成指数持续下降，未来4年可持续发展潜力在波动中也将有所降低。中国人均生态足迹构成指数与10个驱动因素的偏最小二乘回归分析发现，正相关因素依次为城镇人口、第一产业产值、总人口、进出口贸易总额、第三产业产值，负相关因素依次为政府消费、农业人口、居民消费、人均GDP、第二产业产值。