Influencing Factors and Prediction of Risk of Returning to Ecological Poverty in Liupan Mountain Region,China

China has resolved its overall regional poverty in 2020 by attaining moderate societal prosperity.The country has entered a new development stage designed to achieve its second centenary goal.However,ecological fragility and risk susceptibility have increased the risk of returning to ecological poverty.In this paper,the Liupan Mountain Region of China was used as a case study,and the counties were used as the scale to reveal the spatiotempora differentiation and influcing factors of the risk of returning to poverty in study area.The indicator data for returning to ecological poverty from 2011-2020 were collected and summarized in three dimensions:ecological,economic and social.The autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)time series and exponential smoothing method(ES)were used to predict the multidimensional indicators of returning to ecological poverty for 61 counties(districts)in the Liupan Mountain Region for 2021-2030.The back propagation neural network(BPNN)and geographic information system(GIS)were used to generate the spatial distribution and time variation for the index of the risk of returning to ecological poverty(RREP index).The results show that 1)ecological factors were the main factors in the risk of returning to ecological poverty in Liupan Mountain Region.2)The RREP index for the 61 counties(districts)exhibited a downward trend from 2021-2030.The RREP index declined more in medium-and high-risk areas than in low-risk areas.From 2021 to 2025,the RREP index exhibited a slight downward trend.From 2026 to2030,the RREP index was expected to decline faster,especially from 2029-2030.3)Based on the RREP index,it can be roughly divided into three types,namely,the high-risk areas,the medium-risk areas,and the low-risk areas.The natural resource conditions in lowrisk areas of returning to ecological poverty,were better than those in medium-and high-risk areas.

Synthesize dual goals:A study on China's ecological poverty alleviation system

How to break the vicious cycle of poverty and ecological degradation is widely concerned and discussed.In the poverty alleviation practices in China,ecological poverty alleviation(EPA)is regarded as an important way to synthesize the dual goals of poverty reduction and environmental protection and to achieve the win-win outcomes.Many Chinese researchers have fruitful research achievements on EPA yet they do not recognize that EPA is not a simple combination of various policies,but a complex system involving multiple policy instruments,governmental agencies,social forces,and agents.However,few studies abroad illustrate EPA in detail.They focus more on specific components of EPA such as payment for ecosystem services while overlooking the integral concept of EPA and practices from China.Based on field research in Guizhou Province,China,this paper proposes a framework of EPA with an effective multi-agent and co-government system,for demonstrating the concept and practice of EPA.With case analysis,we illustrate key elements in this system and their relationships,and how they play a vital role in pursuing win-win outcomes in environmental protection and poverty alleviation.The three dimensions of this EPA system have been discussed.The first is to strengthen the interaction among the agents.Many efforts should be made for establishing an efficient communication routine and a stable relationship among their interests.The second is to reinforce the connection between diverse elements in each policy subsystem,such as the systematization and coordination of the ecological industry development,the systematization of the links before,during,and after the relocation of ecological immigrants,etc.The third is to promote the interactions between the three subsystems,so that ecological enhancement,ecological compensation,and industrial development,and migration and relocation can promote each other,and ultimately promote the coordination of poverty alleviation and ecological protection in povertystricken areas.Thus,this paper analyzes how to establish the communication routine among the relevant agents of EPA,the interaction among the internal elements of the subsystems,and the relationship between the subsystems in series,trying to reveal the basic operating mechanism of the system.

Regional land ecological security evaluation and ecological poverty alleviation practice:A case study of Yangxian County in Shaanxi Province,China

Land ecological security(LES)is an important part of China’s ecological civilization construction,which plays a vital role in ensuring the sustainable development of its society and economy.Based on the Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response(DPSIR)framework,this study quantified the spatiotemporal changes of LES in 28 counties of the southern Shaanxi Province from 2009 to 2018.The influencing factors of LES in Yangxian County were explored to clarify the mechanisms that rely on the land ecological advantages to develop organic agriculture and boost poverty alleviation.Results show that the LES of Yangxian always ranked in the top six in 28 counties of the southern Shaanxi region during 2009–2018.The LES in Yangxian increased from 0.385 in 2009 to 0.533 in 2018,and the LES level changed from relatively unsafe to safe.The indicators of rural per capita net income,grain output per unit area of arable land,and grazing intensity could explain 99.8%of the LES variance in Yangxian.Relying on ecological resources,Yangxian increased farmers’income and boosted alleviation of poverty through innovative land policies,developing organic agriculture,and rural tourism.These findings will provide theoretical support and model reference for balancing ecological protection and poverty alleviation in restricted development zones.