Economic Effects

The past two years have witnessed great fluctuations ininternational oil prices,and diplomatic efforts,both above andunder the table,by major powers around this issue.The currenttension in the war-threatened Iraq has added more uncertainties to thefuture world oil situation.Will the world oil supply and demand change?What impact would this exert on big powers’ oil strategy choices,geopolitics as well as world economy?What should China do in such asituation?To find the answers to these questions,at the invitation of theeditor of the Contemporary International Relations,seven experts fromChina Institute of Contemporary International Relations gathered to have adiscussion in early February this year.Naturally,they have differentviews over many issues.Still,we hope our readers would find theirdiscussion interesting.Following is the list of participants.

The Economic Effect of the Housing Refurbishment in Urban Regeneration

With the increasing ratio of self-owned housing, the demand for new building as gradually reduced. In other words, the demand of refurbishment becomes more urgent. The major objective of this paper is to explore and investigate the consumer behavior of housing renovation. We plan to explore the direct effects of housing refurbishment or restoration on the housing prices, and then the indirect effects of an externality spilled over to the neighbor. We will understand the overall effects to provide a preliminary estimate of the changing in the economic value resulting from the change in the housing refurbishment or restoration of buildings. This research also dig into how the effects in the housing refurbishment or restoration in Taipei city ＆ Kaohsiung city. The purpose is to investigate the driving force on the housing restoration. This study will be the empirical study on the economic values by using hedonic price model. The result will be useful on the decision-making on the urban regeneration by the way of housing restoration and suggests that property owners of a housing estate will benefit from participating on refurbishment in Taiwan.

Ecological and socioeconomic effects of China's policy for grassland eco-compensation

To reverse the continuous deterioration of grassland ecology and to improve the well-being of herders, China has been formulating many national policies on payments for grassland ecological conservation. One of them, the Grassland Eco-compensation Policy(GEP), is the biggest program for grassland protection in China since 1949. The GEP conserves natural grassland by paying herders cash subsidies. It also has worldwide significance because it can increase vegetative cover, improve the ecological balance, increase carbon sequestration and lessen the amount of dust reaching other countries through inhibiting soil erosion. Overall, we find that its ecological and socioeconomic effects are beneficial and further benefits may be observed in the future because while the socioeconomic effects usually appear quickly, ecological effects may take longer to manifest. 2015 is the last year for the first round of the GEP policy implementation and the extended policy for the GEP will be approved and continued by the central government. To make the policy more successful, we suggest coordinated planning, a comprehensive overview, higher compensation and collaborative study. Efficient implementation of the GEP could also provide valuable experience for other eco-compensation programs in China and numerous other regions of the world.

Economic Effects of China’s Import Expansion Strategy

Since 2018,China has enacted a string of policy initiatives to increase imports.To quantify this import expansion strategy’s economic effects,we created a large numerical general equilibrium model and quantitatively simulated the economic effects of the reductions of tariff and non-tariff barriers on China and other economies.Our simulation results show that overall,China’s import expansion strategy benefited both itself and others and contributed to employment,welfare,and trade growth in China and the rest of the world.In relative terms,however,China’s import expansion strategy benefited other countries more than it did itself and contributed more to the growth of the world economy.Additionally,the import expansion strategy may effectively promote China’s trade balance,and the trade equilibrium effect driven by the reduction of non-tariff barriers is more significant than that of tariff barriers.Furthermore,regarding the self-benefiting effects of import expansion,the effects of nontariff measures are significantly greater than those of tariff measures,and this result has policy implications for China’s import expansion strategy going forward.

Economic Effect of Rural Labor Transfer in China

With the continuous development of China’s economy and the acceleration of urbanization,more and more rural labor force is gradually transferred to cities and non-agricultural industries.Although the transfer of rural labor force can increase farmers’income,improve farmers’quality of life,and accelerate the process of urbanization and agricultural modernization in China,the unreasonable transfer of rural labor force has also brought some problems to China’s agricultural development.This paper mainly through the method of combining theoretical derivation and empirical analysis,using the data from 2010 to 2015 to analyze,study the influence of rural labor transfer on agricultural production,explore the relationship between rural labor transfer and agricultural development and provide relevant policy suggestions.

For the Greater Good?—A Critical Reflection on Assessing Indirect Economic Effects Caused by Large Transport Projects

Investing in large transport projects affects the (potential) economic development of metropolitan areas. Yet, very little critical research has been performed to understand how to assess these effects. The relationship between infrastructure investments and regional economic development is complex and indirect, and many theoretical and methodological difficulties remain. On the one hand, the assumption that investing in infrastructure is important to sustain economic growth is sometimes doubted. On the other hand, it is argued that investments in infrastructure enhance the accessibility of urban regions and that in the slipstream of such investments, social problems in urban regions can be tackled as well. Despite these contrasting views, there is at least a consensus that transport infrastructure development depends on economic development and vice versa. Yet, in many cases, the method of assessing economic impacts highly affects the results. Therefore, this paper focuses on a critical reflection of methods for estimating economic effects of infrastructure investments. A critical evaluation is made based on Indonesian and Japanese cases. After conducting in-depth desk research on both cases, we found that the broader effects on affected group of people tend to be overlooked due to the problems of time and space dimensions, the chain reaction of effects, and inappropriate data practices. The assessment on the appraisal processes tends to overlook the broader economic implication due to narrow focus and the concept of efficiency of economic theory.

Spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure on regional economic growth

Spatial spillover effects,either positive or negative,of transport infrastructure,highways/expressways,etc.,on regional economic growth are proposed.Using the panel data for 11 cities of Zhejiang province from 1994 to 2003,a spatial production function is applied to examine the spatial spillovers which can be generated as a positive output spillover from the transport infrastructure between neighboring cities.Some spatial weighted matrices are adopted to define different neighboring cities to measure how easily factors or economic activities can migrate between regions.The estimation results show that the output elasticity of the highway infrastructure in 11 cities are all insignificant at a 5% significance level;hence,highway infrastructure in a region cannot explain the same region's economic growth.On the other hand,the highway infrastructure of other contiguous regions has positive spillover effects on a same region's economic growth.

Effects of “3414” Fertilization Effect Test on the Yield and Economic Benefit of Sagittaria sagittifolia

[Objective] To screen the optimal fertilizer formula, and to lay foundation for the research on special fertilizer for Sagittaria sagittifolia production. [Method] Based on the ＂3414＂ fertilization design, the yield of S. sagittifolia in each treatment was determined, and the effects of N, P and K treatments on the yield and eco- nomic benefit of S. sagittifolia were investigated, obtaining the optimal fertilizer appli- cation ratio. [Result] N, P and K had relatively good effects on the yield of S. sagittifolia. Treatment of N2P2K3 showed the optimal fertilizer application ratio, with the yield of 18 397.80 kg/hm2, yield increasing rate of 104.77%, and net income in- crease of 80 317.35 Yuan/hm2. N fertilizer had the greatest impacts on the yield of S. sagittifolia, followed with K fertilizer; while P fertilizer showed the poorest impacts. [Conclusion] To achieve the highest yield of S. sagittifolia, the fertilizer application was as follows： N of 446.70 kg/hm2, P20 of 568.10 kg/hm2, K2O of 534.90 kg/hm2, when the highest yield was 18 612.75 kg/hm2. Fertilizer application for the optimal economic benefit was N of 420.60 kg/hm2, P2O5 of 70.50 kg/hm2, K2O of 492.15 kg/hm2, when the optimal yield was 18 579.00 kg/hm2.

Implementation Effect of Farmland Protection in Urumqi-Changji Economic Zone,China

A multi-level evaluation index system is established with farmland protection as the target layer,farmland quantity,farmland quality andfarmland sustainable development as the criterion layer.And the index layer includes the quantity change of farmland,per capita farmland area,multiple cropping index,total grain yield,unit grain yield,per capita grain security coefficient,and unit machinery dynamical input.Both expert eval-uation method and factor analysis method are used to determine the weight of index.According to the data in farmland area,grain yield and eco-nomic development in Urumqi-Changji Economic Zone in the years 1996-2007,a comprehensive evaluation model of intensive farmland use inUrumqi-Changji Economic Zone is established after data standardization.The overall implementation effect of farmland protection policy is ana-lyzed by integrating the farmland quantity,farmland quality and sustainable development.Result shows that implementation effect of farmland pro-tection shows an upward trend in general in Urumqi-Changji Economic Zone in the years 1996-2007,with a fluctuation in the years 2000-2003and a stable rising phase from 2004 till now.The maximum value is 0.779 in the year 2007;the minimum value is 0.242 in the year 1996;and themean value in the years 1996-2007 is 0.454.Farmland protection at first strictly controls the farmland quantity,then pays attention to farmlandquality,and finally focuses on the sustainable use of farmland.

Research Progress on Distribution,Sources and Ecological Effects of Phthalate in Soil

Phthalate esters(PAEs)are widely used as main plasticizers in plastic products,agricultural regulators,toys,and other fields.This paper reviewed the research progress on the distribution,sources,and ecological effects of PAEs.The effects of PAEs on soil microorganisms,animals,plants and soil properties were explored in sequence,providing effective theoretical basis for future research on PAEs.

Can environmental sustainability be decoupled from economic growth? Empirical evidence from Eastern Europe using the common correlated effect mean group test

The European Union(EU) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD) aim to develop long-term policies for their respective member countries. Having observed increasing dangers to the environment posed by rising economic growth, they are seeking pathways to enable policy action on economic growth and environmental sustainability. Given the facts in theoretical and empirical studies, this study assessed the validity of the decoupling hypothesis by investigating asymmetricity in the relationship between environmental sustainability and economic growth in nine Eastern European countries from 1998 to 2017 using the cross-section augmented Dickey-Fuller(CADF) unit root, panel corrected standard error(PCSE), common correlated effect mean group(CCEMG), and Dumitrescu Hurlin causality approaches. Both population growth and drinking water are used as controlled variables. The outcomes establish strong cointegration among all the variables of interest. According to the results of CCEMG test, economic growth exerts short-term environmental degradation but has long-term environmental benefits in Eastern Europe;and population growth and drinking water exert a positive effect on environmental sustainability in both the short-and long-run. The results of Dumitrescu Hurlin causality test indicate that environmental sustainability is unidirectionally affected by economic growth. Based on these outcomes, we suggest the following policies:(1) the EU and OECD should implement member-targeted policies on economic growth and fossil-fuel use towards regulating industrial pollution, water use, and population control;and(2) the EU and OECD member countries should invest in environmental technologies through green research and development(R&D) to transform their dirty industrial processes and ensure productive energy use.

Problem Analysis and Effective Strategies of Ecological Civilization Education for Undergraduates in the New Age

The ecological civilization in the new age is one important aspect for undergraduates.We must enhance the concept of their civilization and improve the quality of civilization.Carrying out ecological civilization education in colleges and universities has a practical significance for enriching the contents of ideological and political education to realize their all-round development.Nowadays,some undergraduates lack awareness of ecological civilization and ignore its importance.For this reason,undergraduates need to pay attention to ecological civilization and improve their own ecological civilization literacy to promote the all-round development in qualities in the new age.This paper mainly analyzes the current problems in undergraduates’ecological civilization education and explores effective strategies to solve the current problems in undergraduates’ecological civilization education.The strategies include integrating ecological civilization resources,innovating methods of ecological civilization,strengthening ecological educator team construction,embodying ecological culture in campus construction and creating the atmosphere,emphasizing innovative practices for ecological civilization,strengthening publicity of social-ecological civilization,and attaching importance to family education of ecological civilization.

Optimal Model of Dynamic Economic System with After-Effects-Research on dynamic economic system with after-effects(Ⅱ)

This paper presents the principle of optimization of sub dynamic programming for the dynamic economic system of multistage decision with after effects,and the algorithm for sub optimal strategy based upon the principle.

Effect of total resource allocation effect and economic growth:Chinese experience of 1978-2004

The analytical method of total resource reallocation effect is an evolution of the analytical method of the factors of economic growth. Since the marketization reform in China in 1978, market mechanism has played a more and more important role in resource allocation, and Chinese economy has developed greatly, which is called "the Chinese Miracle". This paper analyzes the economic growth in China from 1978 to 2004 with the analytical method of total resource reallocation effect. The result shows that the annual growth rate of total resource reallocation effect was 0.2%, which was 5.1% of the comprehensive productivity and 0.21% of the gross output growth, i.e. the total resource allocation played a weak role in the economic growth in China. When analyzing it in Chenery's multinational model, we find that Chinese comprehensive productivity growth rate was higher than that in all the income phases of the model, but the total resource allocation effect was obviously lower than that in all the income phases of the model. It indicates that the total resource allocation in China has a great potential, and that to accelerate marketization reform is one of the important issues for Chinese economic development.

China’s Foreign Aid,Recipient Countries’Economic Growth,and the Mediating Effect of Aid in Infrastructure

Based on the panel data of China’s foreign aid in 2003-2014 from AidData,this paper empirically investigates the relationship between China’s foreign aid and economic growth in recipient countries.Using the principal component analysis(PCA),the authors propose a variable,i.e.the infrastructure index,to measure the effects of aid on the economic growth of recipient countries.This study shows that aid from China has significantly improved the level of economic growth in recipient countries,which provides a new evidence of China’s aid effectiveness.Through analysis of the ways by which aid in infrastructure induces economic growth,the authors conclude that the improvement of local infrastructure accounts for 55.30%of the aggregate economic growth effect of China’s aid to recipient countries.

The Spillover Effect of Innovation on Economic Growth: Leader Effect vs. Peer Effect

Innovation contributes to the long-term economic growth.From the perspective of externality by innovation,this paper disentangles the spillover effect based on the regions’abundance of innovation resource and separately identifies the“leader effect”and“peer effect”of innovation spillover and discusses their economic consequences.Empirical results demonstrate a negative spillover effect from innovation leaders on the economic growth and a positive spillover effect from innovation peers.Robustness checks also support main findings.This study has implication both in the endogenous economic growth theory and industry innovation practice.

The Impact of lntemational Business for Intensive and Effective Economic Growth of China

In this research work, author focuses on the analysis the impact of international business for intensive and effectiveeconomic growth of China. It must be emphasized that openess to trade is associated with higher incomes andgrowth and there are the need for new approaches to trade cooperation in light of the forces that are currentlyre-shaping international business. The key of trade developments within the broader socio-economic context isespecially the rise of global supply chains, the general shift of trade power away fi＇om the West towards AsiaPacific state. In the new circumstances for the development of the global economy and the international trade,People＇s Republic of China seems to be a production superpower, able to change the world trade. The questionraised is whether the West will see China＇s rise as an opportunity for cooperation and peace or for conflict.Economic growth is generally more preferable in China to military and extensive expansion. With new investments,a country can transform its position through industrial expansion at home and sustain it through international trade.The main aim of the paper is the presentation of the impact of international business for intensive and effectiveeconomic growth of China.

The Spatial Spillover Effect of Input and Output of Scientific Progress on Regional Economic Growth: The Case of Guangdong Province

This paper makes an empirical analysis of the spatial spillover effect of regional economic growth by using Moran’s I and Spatial Durbin Model to study the input and output of technological progress, with the panel data of 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province from 2008 to 2017. The empirical results show that the spatial autocorrelation exists in the economic development of Guangdong Province, and both the input and output of scientific research innovation have a significant positive effect on the regional economic growth. Under the spatial contiguity weights matrix, the output of scientific research and innovation has a more obvious spillover effect on the economic growth of neighboring cities than the input of scientific research and innovation.

Impacts and Demonstration Effects of Applying Long-acting Slow-release Fertilizer on Economic Yield of Peanut

[Objectives]To study the impacts and demonstration effects of long-acting slow-release fertilizer application on economic yield of peanut.[Methods]The 25,30,35,40,45,50 kg of long-acting slow-release fertilizers were applied to 667 m 2 of peanuts,and different amounts of urea were applied together.[Results]Applying 40 kg of long-acting slow-release fertilizer and 10.45 kg of urea had the best effect.Compared with the application of ordinary compound fertilizers,the plants did not age prematurely,the leaf diseases were mild,the stems and leaves remained dark green when harvested,and the stems and leaves had a longer functional period.Bearing shoots increased by 1.7,single-plant full pods increased by 2.4,double-seed peanuts increased by 3.2,empty pods decreased by 0.5,and single-seed peanuts decreased by 0.7.The experimental demonstration results show that the spring-sowed peanuts had an average yield increase of 29.0-67.2 kg/667 m 2,and the yield increase rate was 7.35%-16.89%,and the difference was extremely significant.[Conclusions]In the high-yield cultivation of peanuts,the application of long-acting slow-release fertilizer can be promoted to improve peanut production.

Spatial Effect Research on Educational Output and Economic Growth in China

This thesis is to study spatial effect of education output on economic growth through the use of spatial measurement technique. According to the study: there’s the presence of spatial spillover effects in human capital, economic growth, and others;in previous years, human capital depended on mainly the employers with junior school education or below;in recent years, with the reduction of employers with junior school education or below, employers with regular higher education can best promote the economic growth. However, it’s very difficult for human capital with vocational education to promote economic growth, especially in recent years. Therefore, from the perspective of long-term economic growth, China should focus on culturing professional talents and put more resources into the development of vocational education while developing the higher education.