China now is in the vital stage of the economic transition,which is facing the severe challenge of spanning the middle- income trap.Only the clear recognization of current domestic and overseas situations,the vigorous...China now is in the vital stage of the economic transition,which is facing the severe challenge of spanning the middle- income trap.Only the clear recognization of current domestic and overseas situations,the vigorous implementation of self- dependent innovation,and the energetic exploitation of international market will contribute to the fundamental industrial restructuring and the early achievement of marching into high- income countries.展开更多
The middle income trap is an objective challenge faced in the development of the economy. There is provision in both the amount and time. It is worth studying why some Latin American countries have fallen into this tr...The middle income trap is an objective challenge faced in the development of the economy. There is provision in both the amount and time. It is worth studying why some Latin American countries have fallen into this trap for decades. This paper analyzed the causes for the middle income trap of Latin American economies. On this basis,it came up with recommendations for China's leaping paths,including accelerating the structural reforms on the supply front to promote industrial transformation and upgrading,deepening the reform and increasing the efficiency with institutional innovation as the core,protecting legitimate property rights,reforming the income distribution,combining accurate poverty alleviation,narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor,performing administration according to laws,vigorously developing education,expanding the opening up,and keeping sustainable growth,so as to successfully leap over the middle income trap.展开更多
This paper explores the middle income trap （MIT） concept from the perspective of productivity growth. Through the examination of cross-country historical statistics as well as China＇s regional data, it sheds light ...This paper explores the middle income trap （MIT） concept from the perspective of productivity growth. Through the examination of cross-country historical statistics as well as China＇s regional data, it sheds light on the debate about whether the Chinese economy can avoid the middle income trap. It should be one of the first papers proposing an analytical framework to address this controversial issue. The findings should have important implications for economic policies guiding China＇s development in the coming decades.展开更多
Nowadays, more than 50% of the world population live in middle-income economies. Economies in the middle-income development stage are confronted with a number of challenges, such as economic restructuring, industrial ...Nowadays, more than 50% of the world population live in middle-income economies. Economies in the middle-income development stage are confronted with a number of challenges, such as economic restructuring, industrial upgrade and income growth. Therefore, academia around the worm have paid much attention to theoretical and empirical researches of the ＂middle income trap＂ and long-term trends of global economic growth. Based on analyses about the long-term growth path of the world economy and the characteristics of different stages of economic development, this paper defines the＂middle income trap＂ and its characteristics and examines, through a large number of cases from different economies, the reasons why ＂growth slowdown＂ arises during the middle-income development stage. These theoretic and empirical researches have reference value and heuristic meaning for China to actively respond to the challenges of the ＂middle income trap＂.展开更多
Data from WDI show that developing countries are easily caught in the ＂middle income trap.＂ To interpret the mechanism of the ＂middle income trap,＂ this paper focuses on： （1） Based on the empirical framework of...Data from WDI show that developing countries are easily caught in the ＂middle income trap.＂ To interpret the mechanism of the ＂middle income trap,＂ this paper focuses on： （1） Based on the empirical framework of economic growth, we perform an empirical research on the determinants of economic growth at different income levels and discover that fixed capital investment, FDI and human capital accumulation are the main factors influencing less developed economies while for the upper middle income level and high-income level countries, the engines of economic growth change to institutions and R＆D. （2） We discuss the possible reasons why developing countries can have rapid economic growth before reaching the middleineome level, but cannot transform growth mechanisms in the middle income level. （3） We classify the factors that have influenced China＇s economic growth since the reform and analyze the potential ones for China＇s future development.展开更多
The history of international industrialization shows that Latin American countries and former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries experienced a siginificant drop in economic growth and fell into the middle-inc...The history of international industrialization shows that Latin American countries and former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries experienced a siginificant drop in economic growth and fell into the middle-income trap when their per capita GDP reached 4,000-7,000 international dollar （based on the 1990 prices） as a result of long-term implemented import-oriented strategy and planned economic system. Fortunately, China adopted reform and opening-up policy beginning at a lower development phase and achieved sustained high-speed growth for more than thirty years. Currently, China has surpassed the phase which the above-mentioned countries fell into the middle-income trap. On the other side, experiences of successful runner-ups show that when per capita GDP reached II,000 international dollar （based on the 1990 prices）, economic growth speed will present regularly ＂natural drop ＂. Without internal and external shocks, China＇s economy is expected to reach this level by 2015 and the potential growth rate will possibly drop significantly. In this regard, China＇s toughest challenges will be whether it can effectively prevent and solve the financial risks accumulated during high-speed growth and make a shift to innovation-driven growth model Time is pressing for addressing the above challenges. A fundamental change in the growth model depends on the intensification of reform, in particular, the promotion of an ＂participatory and facilitative reform ＂approach.展开更多
文摘China now is in the vital stage of the economic transition,which is facing the severe challenge of spanning the middle- income trap.Only the clear recognization of current domestic and overseas situations,the vigorous implementation of self- dependent innovation,and the energetic exploitation of international market will contribute to the fundamental industrial restructuring and the early achievement of marching into high- income countries.
文摘The middle income trap is an objective challenge faced in the development of the economy. There is provision in both the amount and time. It is worth studying why some Latin American countries have fallen into this trap for decades. This paper analyzed the causes for the middle income trap of Latin American economies. On this basis,it came up with recommendations for China's leaping paths,including accelerating the structural reforms on the supply front to promote industrial transformation and upgrading,deepening the reform and increasing the efficiency with institutional innovation as the core,protecting legitimate property rights,reforming the income distribution,combining accurate poverty alleviation,narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor,performing administration according to laws,vigorously developing education,expanding the opening up,and keeping sustainable growth,so as to successfully leap over the middle income trap.
文摘This paper explores the middle income trap （MIT） concept from the perspective of productivity growth. Through the examination of cross-country historical statistics as well as China＇s regional data, it sheds light on the debate about whether the Chinese economy can avoid the middle income trap. It should be one of the first papers proposing an analytical framework to address this controversial issue. The findings should have important implications for economic policies guiding China＇s development in the coming decades.
文摘Nowadays, more than 50% of the world population live in middle-income economies. Economies in the middle-income development stage are confronted with a number of challenges, such as economic restructuring, industrial upgrade and income growth. Therefore, academia around the worm have paid much attention to theoretical and empirical researches of the ＂middle income trap＂ and long-term trends of global economic growth. Based on analyses about the long-term growth path of the world economy and the characteristics of different stages of economic development, this paper defines the＂middle income trap＂ and its characteristics and examines, through a large number of cases from different economies, the reasons why ＂growth slowdown＂ arises during the middle-income development stage. These theoretic and empirical researches have reference value and heuristic meaning for China to actively respond to the challenges of the ＂middle income trap＂.
文摘Data from WDI show that developing countries are easily caught in the ＂middle income trap.＂ To interpret the mechanism of the ＂middle income trap,＂ this paper focuses on： （1） Based on the empirical framework of economic growth, we perform an empirical research on the determinants of economic growth at different income levels and discover that fixed capital investment, FDI and human capital accumulation are the main factors influencing less developed economies while for the upper middle income level and high-income level countries, the engines of economic growth change to institutions and R＆D. （2） We discuss the possible reasons why developing countries can have rapid economic growth before reaching the middleineome level, but cannot transform growth mechanisms in the middle income level. （3） We classify the factors that have influenced China＇s economic growth since the reform and analyze the potential ones for China＇s future development.
文摘The history of international industrialization shows that Latin American countries and former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries experienced a siginificant drop in economic growth and fell into the middle-income trap when their per capita GDP reached 4,000-7,000 international dollar （based on the 1990 prices） as a result of long-term implemented import-oriented strategy and planned economic system. Fortunately, China adopted reform and opening-up policy beginning at a lower development phase and achieved sustained high-speed growth for more than thirty years. Currently, China has surpassed the phase which the above-mentioned countries fell into the middle-income trap. On the other side, experiences of successful runner-ups show that when per capita GDP reached II,000 international dollar （based on the 1990 prices）, economic growth speed will present regularly ＂natural drop ＂. Without internal and external shocks, China＇s economy is expected to reach this level by 2015 and the potential growth rate will possibly drop significantly. In this regard, China＇s toughest challenges will be whether it can effectively prevent and solve the financial risks accumulated during high-speed growth and make a shift to innovation-driven growth model Time is pressing for addressing the above challenges. A fundamental change in the growth model depends on the intensification of reform, in particular, the promotion of an ＂participatory and facilitative reform ＂approach.
