Economic Effects

The past two years have witnessed great fluctuations ininternational oil prices,and diplomatic efforts,both above andunder the table,by major powers around this issue.The currenttension in the war-threatened Iraq has added more uncertainties to thefuture world oil situation.Will the world oil supply and demand change?What impact would this exert on big powers’ oil strategy choices,geopolitics as well as world economy?What should China do in such asituation?To find the answers to these questions,at the invitation of theeditor of the Contemporary International Relations,seven experts fromChina Institute of Contemporary International Relations gathered to have adiscussion in early February this year.Naturally,they have differentviews over many issues.Still,we hope our readers would find theirdiscussion interesting.Following is the list of participants.

Economic Effects of China’s Import Expansion Strategy

Since 2018,China has enacted a string of policy initiatives to increase imports.To quantify this import expansion strategy’s economic effects,we created a large numerical general equilibrium model and quantitatively simulated the economic effects of the reductions of tariff and non-tariff barriers on China and other economies.Our simulation results show that overall,China’s import expansion strategy benefited both itself and others and contributed to employment,welfare,and trade growth in China and the rest of the world.In relative terms,however,China’s import expansion strategy benefited other countries more than it did itself and contributed more to the growth of the world economy.Additionally,the import expansion strategy may effectively promote China’s trade balance,and the trade equilibrium effect driven by the reduction of non-tariff barriers is more significant than that of tariff barriers.Furthermore,regarding the self-benefiting effects of import expansion,the effects of nontariff measures are significantly greater than those of tariff measures,and this result has policy implications for China’s import expansion strategy going forward.

Analysis and Innovative Strategies of Tax Preferential Policies to Promote the Sustainable Development of Small-Scale Individual Businesses

This study conducted an in-depth analysis of the current tax preferential policies for small-scale individual businesses and compared them with similar policies both domestically and internationally,aiming to reveal the advantages and disadvantages of the current system.After examining the impact of these tax preferential policies on the economic status of individual business owners and the broader social economy,this article proposes a set of innovative tax preferential strategies based on theoretical foundations.By developing these innovative strategies and clarifying their implementation paths,the aim is to promote the sustainable and healthy development of small-scale individual businesses,thereby fostering comprehensive socio-economic progress.The conclusion of this study not only summarizes policy recommendations with practical significance but also provides theoretical support for the optimization and innovation of future related systems.

The Economic Effect of the Housing Refurbishment in Urban Regeneration

With the increasing ratio of self-owned housing, the demand for new building as gradually reduced. In other words, the demand of refurbishment becomes more urgent. The major objective of this paper is to explore and investigate the consumer behavior of housing renovation. We plan to explore the direct effects of housing refurbishment or restoration on the housing prices, and then the indirect effects of an externality spilled over to the neighbor. We will understand the overall effects to provide a preliminary estimate of the changing in the economic value resulting from the change in the housing refurbishment or restoration of buildings. This research also dig into how the effects in the housing refurbishment or restoration in Taipei city ＆ Kaohsiung city. The purpose is to investigate the driving force on the housing restoration. This study will be the empirical study on the economic values by using hedonic price model. The result will be useful on the decision-making on the urban regeneration by the way of housing restoration and suggests that property owners of a housing estate will benefit from participating on refurbishment in Taiwan.

Effect of total resource allocation effect and economic growth:Chinese experience of 1978-2004

The analytical method of total resource reallocation effect is an evolution of the analytical method of the factors of economic growth. Since the marketization reform in China in 1978, market mechanism has played a more and more important role in resource allocation, and Chinese economy has developed greatly, which is called "the Chinese Miracle". This paper analyzes the economic growth in China from 1978 to 2004 with the analytical method of total resource reallocation effect. The result shows that the annual growth rate of total resource reallocation effect was 0.2%, which was 5.1% of the comprehensive productivity and 0.21% of the gross output growth, i.e. the total resource allocation played a weak role in the economic growth in China. When analyzing it in Chenery's multinational model, we find that Chinese comprehensive productivity growth rate was higher than that in all the income phases of the model, but the total resource allocation effect was obviously lower than that in all the income phases of the model. It indicates that the total resource allocation in China has a great potential, and that to accelerate marketization reform is one of the important issues for Chinese economic development.

Economic Effect of Rural Labor Transfer in China

With the continuous development of China’s economy and the acceleration of urbanization,more and more rural labor force is gradually transferred to cities and non-agricultural industries.Although the transfer of rural labor force can increase farmers’income,improve farmers’quality of life,and accelerate the process of urbanization and agricultural modernization in China,the unreasonable transfer of rural labor force has also brought some problems to China’s agricultural development.This paper mainly through the method of combining theoretical derivation and empirical analysis,using the data from 2010 to 2015 to analyze,study the influence of rural labor transfer on agricultural production,explore the relationship between rural labor transfer and agricultural development and provide relevant policy suggestions.

Key Problems and Countermeasures in CO_(2)Flooding and Storage

Based on literature research in combination with the practice of CO_(2)flooding and storage in Jilin Oilfield,this study assesses the key problems in CO_(2)flooding and storage,proposing the corresponding countermeasures from five aspects of CO_(2)gas source condition,namely geological condition evaluation,scheme design incoordination with other production methods,economic and effectiveness evaluation,together with dynamic monitoring and safety evaluation.The results show that CO_(2)flooding is the most economic and effective CO_(2)storage method.In eastern China,inorganic origin CO_(2)gas reservoirs are widely developed and are especially the most enriched in the Paleozoic carbonate rock strata and the Cenozoic Paleogene–Neogene system,which provide a rich resource base for CO_(2)flooding and storage.In the future,CO_(2)generated in the industrial field will become the main gas source of CO_(2)flooding and storage.The evaluation of geological conditions of oil and gas reservoirs is the basis for the potential evaluation,planning scheme design and implementation of CO_(2)flooding and storage.CO_(2)storage should be below the depth of 800 m,the CO_(2)flooding and storage effects in lowpermeability oil reservoirs being the best.CO_(2)geological storage mechanisms primarily consist of tectonic geological storage,bound gas storage,dissolution storage,mineralization storage,hydrodynamic storage and coalbed adsorption storage.The practice of CO_(2)flooding and storage in Jilin Oilfield demonstratesthat the oil increment by CO_(2)flooding is at least 24%higher than by conventional water flooding.The most critical factor determining the success or failure of CO_(2)flooding and storage is economic effectiveness,which needs to be explored from two aspects:the method and technology innovation along with the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality policy support.After CO_(2)is injected into the reservoir,it will react with the reservoir and fluid,the problem of CO_(2)recovery or overflow will occur,so the dynamic monitoring and safety evaluation of CO_(2)flooding and storage are very important.This study is of great significance to the expansion of the application scope of CO_(2)flooding and storage and future scientific planning and deployment.

Research on the Influence of the Digital Economy on Transforming Consumption Behavior Among Residents

Drawing on the essence of Marxist consumer economy theory,this paper argues that the innovations of digital technology can effectively facilitate the integration of economies of scale,economies of scope,and long-tail economies.Through careful analysis of the practical case of Xiaomi’s business ecosystem,this paper highlights the notion that data serve as both a key production factor and a critical consumption carrier within the context of digital consumption.We thoroughly investigated the influence of the digital economy on transforming consumption behavior among residents by analyzing a range of typical business cases and the latest data that triggered this transformation.Based on the analysis,this paper argues that such transformation can lead to the platform agglomeration effect,the inclusive diffusion effect,and the push-pull effect by highlighting the specific ways in which the digital economy disrupts the consumption-production model and contributes to the upgrading and transformation of traditional industries.Additionally,this paper demonstrates how the digital economy can expand and promote emerging business forms,providing insights into the ways in which digital innovation is reshaping the contemporary economic landscape.This study intends to provide several policy suggestions that can expand domestic demand,promote consumption,drive the high-quality and integrated development of China’s digital and real economy,and position China as a strong cyber and consumer nation by using digitalized consumption as a starting point.

Catalytic co-combustion of biomass and brown coal in a fluidized bed:Economic and environmental benefits

The work is devoted to the study of combustion of brown coal,pine sawdust,and their mixtures in a fluidized bed of catalyst at 600-750℃.It is shown that an increase in the content of sawdust in a mixture with brown coal leads to an increase in the burnout degree of solid fuel from 94.4%to 99.9%,while the emission of greenhouse gases in the form of CO_(2)CO and NOxis reduced(CO_(2)from the biomass is not included in the balance).The high content of alkaline earth metal oxides(CaO and MgO)in the mineral part of brown coal,sawdust,and their mixtures eliminates the emission of sulfur oxides and the slagging of heat-exchange surfaces during the combustion in a fluidized bed of catalyst.The optimal temperature,when the highest burnout degree of the above fuels is achieved in the combustion is 750℃.It is also shown that the increase in temperature and the content of sawdust in the composition of the fuel mixtures has a positive effect on the economic and environmental process indicators.

Modeling and Simulation of Skid-mounted LNG Plants Using HYSYS Software

This study presents three kinds of skid-mounted plants, including single mixed refrigerant cycle （MRC）, nitrogen expander cycle, and natural gas （NG） Claude cycle. Hysys simulation shows that single MRC is the most efficient cycle among the three. The specific power of single MRC liquefiers is 1 485 k.l/kg, 15% higher than that of large liquefaction process. Considering the recovery of stranded-gas, commercial analysis suggests that the initial cost of LNG plants ranging from 1 to 100 ms/day can be paid back in 2 to 4 years.

Empirical Study About the Application of Knowledge Management in Selected Sector of Industry in Slovakia

This study focuses on the analysis of the application of knowledge management in companies in selected sector of industry in Slovakia after Slovakia entering into Euro area in 2009. Based on relevant experience, main conditions and problems associated with the implementation are analyzed through fundamental empirical survey. The necessity of utilization of information and communication technologies, management information systems innovation and long life education in companies are considered in knowledge-based company in knowledge-based society. Further possibilities of application and expected economic effects and benefits on growth and international competitiveness of companies in European Union, Euro area in many fields are outlined in the end of this article as the main aim of this study

Predicting the distribution of reservoirs by applying the method of seismic data structure characteristics： Example from the eighth zone in Tahe Oilfield

Seismic data structure characteristics means the waveform character arranged in the time sequence at discrete data points in each 2-D or 3-D seismic trace. Hydrocarbon prediction using seismic data structure characteristics is a new reservoir prediction technique. When the main pay interval is in carbonate fracture and fissure-cavern type reservoirs with very strong inhomogeneity, there are some difficulties with hydrocarbon prediction. Because of the special geological conditions of the eighth zone in the Tahe oil field, we apply seismic data structure characteristics to hydrocarbon prediction for the Ordovician reservoir in this zone. We divide the area oil zone into favorable and unfavorable blocks. Eighteen well locations were proposed in the favorable oil block, drilled, and recovered higher output of oil and gas.

Variable Parameter Nonlinear Control for Maximum Power Point Tracking Considering Mitigation of Drive-train Load

Since mechanical loads exert a significant influence on the life span of wind turbines, the reduction of transient load on drive-train shaft has received more attention when implementing a maximum power point tracking U+0028 MPPT U+0029 controller. Moreover, a trade-off between the efficiency of wind energy extraction and the load level of drive-train shaft becomes a key issue. However, for the existing control strategies based on nonlinear model of wind turbines, the MPPT efficiencies are improved at the cost of the intensive fluctuation of generator torque and significant increase of transient load on drive train shaft. Hence, in this paper, a nonlinear controller with variable parameter is proposed for improving MPPT efficiency and mitigating transient load on drive-train simultaneously. Then, simulations on FAST U+0028 Fatigue, Aerodynamics, Structures, and Turbulence U+0029 code and experiments on the wind turbine simulator U+0028 WTS U+0029 based test bench are presented to verify the efficiency improvement of the proposed control strategy with less cost of drive-train load. © 2017 Chinese Association of Automation.

Economic and employment effects of China's power transition based on input‒output and scenario simulation

With high carbon emission,the low-carbon transition of power sector will be critical for China to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.The power transition will have an impact on the economy and employment through the value chain.Quantifying the impact is important for China's future energy and welfare policies.This study adopts input‒output model to analyze the impact on economy and employment based on accelerated and slow power transition scenarios.The results show that the low-carbon power transition will have a negative impact on coal power and coal mining and washing sectors,while a positive impact on machine manufacturing and equipment sector.Low-carbon power transition will have a positive economic and employment effect to promote inclusive growth.By 2060,economic output will increase by about 8.50 trillion CNY,value-added by about 3.39 trillion CNY,and employment will increase by about 3.74 million.Although slower coal power transition can stabilize the economic and employment effect in the short and medium run,accelerating the power transition will produce more positive effect and lower job losses by coal power in the long run.By 2060,accelerating transition will boost output by 8.21%,value-added by 8.20%and jobs by 7.97%.Accordingly,the government should establish an all-round just low-carbon transition mechanism.

MAS Based Distributed Automatic Generation Control for Cyber-Physical Microgrid System

The microgrid is a typical cyber-physical microgrid system (CPMS). The physical unconventional distributed generators (DGs) are intermittent and inverter-interfaced which makes them very different to control. The cyber components, such as the embedded computer and communication network, are equipped with DGs, to process and transmit the necessary information for the controllers. In order to ensure system-wide observability, controllability and stabilization for the microgrid, the cyber and physical component need to be integrated. For the physical component of CPMS, the droop-control method is popular as it can be applied in both modes of operation to improve the grid transient performance. Traditional droop control methods have the drawback of the inherent trade-off between power sharing and voltage and frequency regulation. In this paper, the global information (such as the average voltage and the output active power of the microgrid and so on) are acquired distributedly based on multi-agent system (MAS). Based on the global information from cyber components of CPMS, automatic generation control (AGC) and automatic voltage control (AVC) are proposed to deal with the drawback of traditional droop control. Simulation studies in PSCAD demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control methods. © 2014 Chinese Association of Automation.

Assessing the Regional Economic Ripple Effect of Flood Disasters Based on a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model Considering Traffic Disruptions

With growing regional economic integration,transportation systems have become critical to regional development and economic vitality but vulnerable to disasters.However,the regional economic ripple effect of a disaster is difficult to quantify accurately,especially considering the cumulated influence of traffic disruptions.This study explored integrating transportation system analysis with economic modeling to capture the regional economic ripple effect.A state-of-the-art spatial computable general equilibrium model is leveraged to simulate the operation of the economic system,and the marginal rate of transport cost is introduced to reflect traffic network damage post-disaster.The model is applied to the 50-year return period flood in2020 in Hubei Province,China.The results show the following.First,when traffic disruption costs are considered,the total output loss of non-affected areas is 1.81 times than before,and non-negligible losses reach relatively remote zones of the country,such as the Northwest Comprehensive Economic Zone(36%of total ripple effects).Second,traffic disruptions have a significant hindering effect on regional trade activities,especially in the regional intermediate input—about three times more than before.The industries most sensitive to traffic disruptions were transportation,storage,and postal service(5 times),and processing and assembly manufacturing(4.4 times).Third,the longer the distance,the stronger traffic disruptions'impact on interregional intermediate inputs.Thus,increasing investment in transportation infrastructure significantly contributes to mitigating disaster ripple effects and accelerating the process of industrial recovery in affected areas.

Research on the effect estimation of seismic safety evaluation

Seismic safety evaluation is a basic work for determining the seismic resistance requirements of major construc-tion projects. The effect, especially the economic effect of the seismic safety evaluation has been generally con-cerned. The paper gives a model for estimating the effect of seismic safety evaluation and calculates roughly the economic effect of seismic safety evaluation with some examples.

Primary Analysis of Development Approach to Chinese Satellite Mobile Communication

The paper describes the development of mobile communication first and then points out that it is necessary for China to develop satellite mobile communication after comparing the cellular mobile communication with the satellite mobile communication. After comparing the geostationary satellite system with the low earth orbit satellite mobile communication system, as well as the single-beam system with the multibeams system, both used in satellite mobile communication, we suggest that China, according to its economic status and level of satellite technology, should develop a geostationary multibeam satellite for its domestic mobile communication.

Industrialization, Modernization and Self-Organization

This paper studies the industrialization of China, a key problem of Chinese economic development with self-organization theory in system science. The dual economic structure of modern industry and traditional agriculture existing simultaneously is the typical economic structure for most developing countries. How can we break the dual economic structure? After China has carried out the peasant family output-related system of contracted responsibilities, the rural enterprises which develop swiftly and violently are setting up a bridge between traditional agriculture and modern industry. This paper models the triple economic structure formed by traditional agriculture, rural enterprises and modern industry. From the study of structure evolution, we obtain the important relationship between economic growth rate, the rate of technological progress, the growth rate of capital and the growth rate of population, deduce three critical points of population growth, and find out the conditions under which the national economic system forms a stable and orderly self-organized structure. On the basis of quantitative analysis, we propose an approach to the strategies of industrialization of China, especially to the problem of rural enterprise development and rural labor transfer, and give three conclusions and four developmental strategies about national economic system.

Semantic Similarity between Ontologies at Different Scales

In the past decade, existing and new knowledge and datasets have been encoded in different ontologies for semantic web and biomedical research. The size of ontologies is often very large in terms of number of concepts and relationships, which makes the analysis of ontologies and the represented knowledge graph computational and time consuming. As the ontologies of various semantic web and biomedical applications usually show explicit hierarchical structures, it is interesting to explore the trade-offs between ontological scales and preservation/precision of results when we analyze ontologies. This paper presents the first effort of examining the capability of this idea via studying the relationship between scaling biomedical ontologies at different levels and the semantic similarity values. We evaluate the semantic similarity between three gene ontology slims (plant, yeast, and candida, among which the latter two belong to the same kingdom-fungi) using four popular measures commonly applied to biomedical ontologies (Resnik, Lin, Jiang-Conrath, and SimRel). The results of this study demonstrate that with proper selection of scaling levels and similarity measures, we can significantly reduce the size of ontologies without losing substantial detail. In particular, the performances of Jiang-Conrath and Lin are more reliable and stable than that of the other two in this experiment, as proven by 1) consistently showing that yeast and candida are more similar (as compared to plant) at different scales, and 2) small deviations of the similarity values after excluding a majority of nodes from several lower scales. This study provides a deeper understanding of the application of semantic similarity to biomedical ontologies, and shed light on how to choose appropriate semantic similarity measures for biomedical engineering. © 2014 Chinese Association of Automation.