Environmental Pollution and Economic Growth in China: A Test of the Environmental Kuznets Curve

We apply a two pronged approach to analyze the presence of Environmental Kuznets Curve, EKC, in three types of emissions in the People’s Republic of China from 1994 to 2014: a structural breakpoint analysis and a model based test. We apply it to PM2.5, industrial waste and domestic water pollution time series, and find evidence of EKC in all three types of emissions that require appropriate policy.

Is economic fitness helpful in achieving environmental sustainability in BRICS economies?A risk exposure perspective

A country’s ability to create complex goods and diversify its lines of products is essential for addressing all types of vulnerabilities.Quantifying a country’s vulnerability to extreme climatic events,such as droughts,superstorms,and other natural disasters,and its capacity for successful adaption,is an essential global need that has been ignored.This study examines the role of economic fitness(EF)in addressing climate change risk ex‐posure in BRICS countries in the context of the environmental Kuznets curve using panel data from 1995 to 2015.Panel threshold methodology is employed to ascertain the nonlinear relationship between EF and climate change risk exposure(i.e.,Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative Country Index(ND-GAIN)).In addition,empirical associations were estimated using panel-corrected standard errors,Driscoll-Kraay standard errors,and feasible generalized least squares estimation techniques.These findings demonstrated an inverted N shaped link between EF and ND-GAIN.Moreover,even after controlling for significant ND-GAIN influencing variables such as gross domestic product per capita,financial development,and urbanization,our robustness checks revealed significant and consistent findings.

Correlation Analysis between Economic Growth and Environmental Quality

With the rapid development of the economy,China’s environment has been damaged severely,which has attracted much attention from scholars and the local government.The concept of green development has been an underlying trend since 2012,and it is of great significance to explore the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality.Huzhou is a prefecture-level city under the jurisdiction of Zhejiang Province,and it is one of the 27 cities in the central area of the Yangtze River Delta.In recent years,this city develops well not only in economic development but also in maintaining a green environment.In the paper,the back propagation neural network is used to evaluate the local environmental quality.Meanwhile,the panel model is exploited to analyze the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality.All the data presented in the paper range from the year 2008 to 2018.Theoretical analysis indicates that the evaluation value of environmental quality,the emissions of industrial SO2,and waste water exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with economic growth.As for the regression results,the inflection point of income in the environmental Kuznets curve of the model which takes the evaluation value of the environmental quality as a dependent variable is higher than that of the model which takes the SO2 emission as an independent variable.The research result would help the local government to take appropriate countermeasures to improve the environment and economy.

Study on the Decoupling Indicators between Economic Development and Environmental Pollution

Decoupling theory and application are introduced firstly, and then the status and prospect of decoupling relation between environmental pollution and economic growth are analyzed. Finally, choice criteria and connotation of decoupling indicators are studied.

Probe into Environmental Kuznets Characteristics and Causes of Wastewater, Waste Gas, and Solid Wastes in Wuhan City

Environmental Kuznets characteristics and causes of waste water, waste gas, and solid wastes in Wuhan city was researched; By comparing the variation of “three wastes”, i.e. waste water, waste gas, and solid wastes, the model between standardized per capita GDP and values of “three wastes” discharge was established and the causes were analyzed based on the theory of environmental economics. The results show that 1) the total amount is fluctuantly increasing, but the discharges of the three kinds are temporarily different, 2) the curve conforms to the three-power function, in which the curve descends from 1985 to 1994, and the curve preliminary shows the environmental Kuznets characteristics from 1995 to 2001, 3) the simulated calculation illustrates that the turning point of this environmental Kuznets curve would be over 25007.25 Yuan per caprta, and 4) the economic development, changing of industry structure, energy resource structure, and environmental policies are the main factors leading to the Environmental Kuznets Curve in Wuhan city.

Nexus between CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth, Industrial Production, and Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam: Symmetric ARDL Approach

Vietnam’s economy has been developing strongly in recent years;however, it is necessary to examine the impact of its economic activities on environmental quality. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth, industrial production, and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam. The ARDL estimation was used to process the dataset from World Bank. Results showed that economic growth, industrial production, and FDI have an impact on CO2 emissions in the long run in Vietnam. Granger Causality test also indicated that there is a causal relationship between economic growth, industrial production, and CO2 emissions in Vietnam from 1990 to 2018, at 5% statistical significance level. Proposed solutions to reduce CO2 emissions but still promote economic growth toward the green growth orientation and zero carbon target attainment are as follows: 1) reduce the use of fossil energy in industrial manufacturing and replace it by renewable energy sources;2) use modern technology for all production sectors in economy;and 3) develop a legal framework for FDI projects selection and choose foreign investors with modern and low carbon emission technology.

民族地区经济增长与环境污染的Kuznets曲线实证分析——基于1999—2008民族地区面板数据

改革开放以来民族地区经济取得了快速增长,但随之而来的环境问题却日益突出。截取1999—2008年西部大开发以来民族地区经济环境10年面板数据,对民族地区经济增长与环境污染库兹涅茨曲线进行实证检验,可得出三点结论:一是民族地区各省区的环境库兹涅茨曲线大多数呈现倒N形,且多数地区的经济水平处于倒N库兹涅茨曲线两个拐点的中间,说明各地区在越过其相应曲线的第二个拐点前,按照现在的发展趋势,经济发展将继续加重环境污染。二是民族地区总体上处于经济增长同环境质量相互竞争的阶段。必须加快经济发展来缩小与全国的差距,早日跨越拐点。三是民族地区在加快经济发展的同时必须加大环境保护力度,要通过各种途径降低拐点的高度,争取早日越过拐点,以促进经济和环境的可持续发展。

环境Kuznets曲线的启示

许多研究者对人均国内生产总值与主要污染物浓度指标进行回归分析后发现这两者存在倒U型关系,这种关系被称为环境Kuznets曲线。通过对现有研究的梳理可以发现造成这种倒U型关系的原因是多方面的,而这为我国控制环境质量恶化提供了多方面的启示。

The Micro-foundations of the Environmental Kuznets Curve

This paper presents a simple and straight-forward static model of the micro-foundations of the environmental Kuznets curve, in which the relationship between income and pollution depends on the relative magnitudes of the diminishing income-compensated price elasticity of environmental amenity and increasing marginal propensity to earn environmental amenity out of non-environment income. The smaller the income-compensated price elasticity and the larger the marginal propensity to earn out of non-environment income, the earlier the turning point emerges. This key feature of our model generalizes the specific features of many existing models and generates many of their implications.

Economists’Judgement on China’s Socio-Economic Development in the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

2020 is the final year of China’s 13th Five-Year Plan period and an intersection between the“two centennial goals.”It is also a vital year for drafting the 14th Five-year Plan and embarking on a new journey of socialist modernization.What socio-economic progress has China achieved during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and what are the opportunities,challenges and countermeasures for the 14th Five-Year Plan period?In May 2020,the China Economist conducted a questionnaire survey among economists.Results suggest that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period,China has achieved remarkable progress in the following areas:significant socio-economic development,deepening industry-ICT integration,and rapid growth of new economy;mass entrepreneurship and mass innovation,and enhanced R&D capabilities for cutting-edge technologies;green production and the abatement of air and water pollution;and poverty reduction.In the 14th Five-Year Plan period,opportunities co-exist with challenges for China’s socio-economic development,which brims with resiliency.Surveyed economists felt sanguine about China’s development outlook.Based on the results,surveyed economists believed that the Chinese government should focus on the following priorities during the 14th Five-Year Plan period:expediting industrial transition,strengthening the real economy,and exploring domestic consumption potentials;ramping up research in fundamental science,and accelerating the research of critical technologies;increasing equal access to basic public services;and promoting green development in all respects,including green consumption,production,distribution,innovation,and finance.

宁夏环境质量与经济增长关系的Kuznets曲线

近年来,宁夏在经济取得快速增长的同时,环境质量却在下降,且宁夏的生态环境相对脆弱,因此,研究宁夏环境质量与经济增长之间的相互关系显得尤为重要。依据环境库兹涅茨曲线的理论(Environmental Kuznets Curve),通过选取宁夏1995—2013年的环境与经济数据,利用计量软件EViews拟合了工业污染物及生活污染物的环境库兹涅茨曲线,且结合宁夏的实际情况进行了分析。结果表明,宁夏的经济增长与环境质量之间的库兹涅茨曲线的形状取决于不同指标的选择,宁夏环境质量整体呈现恶化趋势,需要加强工业废气排放与工业固体废物排放的治理,需要依靠环保科学技术促进污染物减排。

Economic Globalization and Industrial Pollution

In order to study the relationship between economic globalization and industrial pollution, this paper developed the theoretical framework and used simultaneous equations. The result shows that economic globalization has influences on the industrial pollution mainly by the direct effect of scale, structure and technology as well as the indirect effect of income and policy. Considering all the factors, economic globalization, especially foreign direct investment (FDI), will reduce industrial pollution, in which technology spillover effect plays an important role.

Air Pollution, Environmental Regulations and Economic Growth——Estimation of Simultaneous Equations Based on Panel Data of Prefecture-Level Cities

The article selects the panel data of 289 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2003 to 2017, establishes simultaneous equations and uses the 3 SLS estimation method to study the relationship between air pollution and economic growth. On the whole, industrial sulfur dioxide and soot emissions have an inverted U-shaped relationship with per capita GDP, and the increase in sulfur dioxide emissions has played a significant role in hindering economic growth. From a regional perspective, the sulfur dioxide emissions in the eastern and western regions conform to the environmental Kuznets curve, and the per capita GDP at the turning point in the western region is significantly lower than the overall national level. The smoke and dust emissions in the eastern, central and western regions all conform to the environmental Kuznets curve, while the per capita GDP at the turning point in the western region is significantly lower than that in the eastern and central regions. In the eastern region, both sulfur dioxide and smoke and dust emissions significantly hinder economic growth,and this hindrance is mainly caused by the spatial transfer of labor. Through further analysis, it is found that environmental regulations can significantly suppress the negative impact of air pollution on economic growth. Finally, the article puts forward some suggestions, such as environmental governance according to local conditions and strengthening environmental regulations.

基于EKC理论下碳排放与经济增长的二者关系研究——浙江省与安徽省的对比分析

碳排放与经济增长二者关系协调对积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和具有重大意义。论文以浙江与安徽为对比案例,从环境库兹涅茨曲线理论出发,基于脱钩模型和因素分解法,分析1997—2020年省域碳排放与经济增长的EKC曲线、脱钩态势及驱动因素。研究表明,浙江、安徽两省碳排放与经济增长EKC不符合传统倒“U”型曲线,均经历两次拐点,浙江为“N”型EKC,拐点年约为2007年和2014年,对应人均经济总量为36766元和73388元,安徽省为微弱的倒“N”型EKC曲线,拐点年约为1998年和2013年,对应人均经济总量为4452元和32733元;浙江碳排放脱钩由扩张负脱钩向强脱钩与弱脱钩方向转变,安徽以弱脱钩状态为主;能源结构与强度效应对浙江省的碳排放脱钩促进作用明显,而经济增长与能源结构效应对安徽省碳排放脱钩起负向作用。

长江经济带水污染、环境规制与高质量经济发展关系研究

基于2009—2021年长江经济带11个省(市)面板数据,通过构建高质量经济发展评级指标体系,利用熵值法对高质量经济发展水平进行测度;基于环境库兹涅茨曲线理论进行基准回归,以水污染为门槛变量分析了环境规制对高质量经济发展的影响,并探讨了长江经济带上游、中游、下游3个区域水污染和环境规制的空间异质性。结果表明:随着水污染程度的加剧,环境规制对高质量经济发展表现出抑制作用,且抑制作用先增大后减小;水污染与高质量经济发展之间呈倒“U”形关系,且存在“环境库兹涅曲线”;长江经济带水污染与环境规制对高质量经济发展具有空间异质性。

水污染环境库兹涅茨曲线探究:来自中国287城市的证据

探索一条城市层面水污染与经济增长协调发展的可持续道路具有重要意义。为了准确刻画城市水污染与经济发展间的关系,该研究构建动态面板效应模型,基于我国287个城市2012-2022年水污染物浓度与GDP年度数据,探究城市高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、化学需氧量、总氮和总磷这五种主要水污染物的浓度变化情况及其与经济发展间的关系,进而探究异质性城市的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)形态差异以及水环境规制强度和人均收入水平对EKC拐点形成的影响。结果表明:①我国287个城市2012-2022年的高锰酸盐指数、氨氮浓度、化学需氧量和总磷浓度均处于下降态势,而总氮浓度处于波动状态。②除化学需氧量外,氨氮、总氮、总磷浓度及高锰酸盐指数均与经济发展存在倒U型关系。③异质性结果表明,胡焕庸线东侧城市组与非资源型城市的大部分水污染物与经济发展存在显著的倒U型关系。④拐点形成影响因素探究结果表明,在水环境规制强度和居民收入水平较高的城市,大部分水污染物浓度与经济发展均呈倒U型关系。因此,应着重加强化学需氧量污染防治工作,重点关注胡焕庸线以西城市和资源型城市传统经济发展模式的转变,持续深化水污染的预防和治理,充分发挥居民在水环境改善中的重要作用。

粤港澳大湾区滨海自然与人工湿地演变及驱动因素分析

通过构建随机森林模型提取了1987—2020年粤港澳大湾区滨海湿地分布数据,采用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)、主成分分析、敏感性分析等方法分析了其演变规律与驱动因素。结果表明:粤港澳大湾区滨海自然与人工湿地呈现不同变化特征,自然湿地面积持续减少,人工湿地面积呈周期性先增加后减少;滨海湿地面积与单位面积GDP之间的EKC在广州、珠海、中山、江门表现为“快速上升—快速下降”的二次倒U形曲线,在深圳为三次倒N形曲线,在惠州、东莞以下降趋势为主;人口、第一产业产值等经济社会因素是粤港澳大湾区滨海湿地的主要驱动因素,气候因素通过交互作用驱动湿地变化,不同驱动因素的敏感度体现了城市经济结构特征。

基于EKC曲线的陕西省经济增长和主要污染物排放量关系分析

为分析陕西省经济增长与环境污染特征关系,判断陕西省生态环保工作所处阶段,本研究基于EKC曲线对2004—2019年国家统计局发布数据中陕西省主要污染物排放量及人均GDP进行统计分析。结果表明,不同污染物的ECK曲线具有不同特征,其中化学需氧量、氨氮、SO_(2)排放量随经济增长呈先增长后减少的倒U型趋势,NO_x排放量随经济增长呈下降趋势。

河南省碳排放与经济增长分析——基于EKC模型和Tapio脱钩模型

文章利用河南省2001—2020年的相关统计数据,运用EKC模型和Tapio脱钩模型对碳排放与经济增长进行实证研究。结果显示:2001—2020年河南省碳排放与经济增长的关系符合“N”型的库兹涅茨曲线;2001—2020年地方碳排放与经济增长表现为扩张联结和弱脱钩两种状态。据此提出河南省发展低碳经济的方向与建议。

甘肃省环境库兹涅茨曲线的检验分析

通过选取2005~2020年甘肃省经济增长与工业废水、废气及废弃物等经济和环境的数据,建立经济增长与主要污染物排放量之间的模型,应用计量经济分析方法探究甘肃省经济增长与环境污染两者之间的关系。结果表明,甘肃省工业废水排放量与人均GDP之间的关系为倒N型,且右部特征更为显著,废气排放量以及工业固体废弃物产生量与人均GDP的关系均为倒V型。因此,甘肃省应该进一步推动产业结构和能源消费结构调整,同时持续加强污染减排,以实现经济增长与环境质量的协调发展。