Discussion of skill improvement in marine ecosystem dynamic models based on parameter optimization and skill assessment

Marine ecosystem dynamic models(MEDMs) are important tools for the simulation and prediction of marine ecosystems. This article summarizes the methods and strategies used for the improvement and assessment of MEDM skill, and it attempts to establish a technical framework to inspire further ideas concerning MEDM skill improvement. The skill of MEDMs can be improved by parameter optimization(PO), which is an important step in model calibration. An effi cient approach to solve the problem of PO constrained by MEDMs is the global treatment of both sensitivity analysis and PO. Model validation is an essential step following PO, which validates the effi ciency of model calibration by analyzing and estimating the goodness-of-fi t of the optimized model. Additionally, by focusing on the degree of impact of various factors on model skill, model uncertainty analysis can supply model users with a quantitative assessment of model confi dence. Research on MEDMs is ongoing; however, improvement in model skill still lacks global treatments and its assessment is not integrated. Thus, the predictive performance of MEDMs is not strong and model uncertainties lack quantitative descriptions, limiting their application. Therefore, a large number of case studies concerning model skill should be performed to promote the development of a scientifi c and normative technical framework for the improvement of MEDM skill.

Development and Application of a Marine Ecosystem Dynamic Model

A nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus （NPZD） type of marine ecosystem model was developed in this study,and was further coupled to a three-dimensional primitive-equation ocean circulation model with a river discharge model and a solar radiation model to reproduce the dynamics of the low nutrition level in the Bohai Sea （BS）.The simulation results were validated by observations and it was shown that the seasonal variation in the phytoplankton biomass could be characterized by the double-peak structure,corresponding to the spring and summer blooms,respectively.It was also found that both nitrogen and phosphate declined to the lowest level after the onset of the summer bloom,since the large amounts of nutrients were exhausted by phytoplankton for photosynthesis,and the concentrations of nutrients could resume in winter after a series of the biogeochemical-physical processes.By calculating the nitrogen/phosphorus （N/P） ratio,it is easy to see that the phytoplankton dynamics is nitrogen-limited as a whole in BS,though the phosphorus limitation may occur in the Yellow River （YR） Estuary where the input of riverine nitrogen is much more than that of phosphate.

Recent patterns of terrestrial net primary production in Africa influenced by multiple environmental changes

Terrestrial net primary production(NPP)is of fundamental importance to food security and ecosystem sustainability.However,little is known about how terrestrial NPP in African ecosystems has responded to recent changes in climate and other environmental factors.Here,we used an integrated ecosystem model(the dynamic land ecosystem model;DLEM)to simulate the dynamic variations in terrestrial NPP of African ecosystems driven by climate and other environmental factors during 1980-2009.We estimate a terrestrial NPP of 10.22(minimum-maximum range of 8.9-11.3)Pg C/yr during the study period.Our results show that precipitation variability had a significant effect on terrestrial NPP,explaining 74%of interannual variations in NPP.Over the 30-yr period,African ecosystems experienced an increase in NPP of 0.03 Pg C/yr,resulting from the combined effects of climate variability,elevated atmospheric CO_(2)concentration,and nitrogen deposition.Our further analyses show that there is a difference in NPP of 1.6 Pg C/yr between wet and dry years,indicating that interannual climatic variations play an important role in determining the magnitude of terrestrial NPP.Central Africa,dominated by tropical forests,was the most productive region and accounted for 50%of the carbon sequestered as NPP in Africa.Our results indicate that warmer and wetter climatic conditions,together with elevated atmospheric CO_(2)concentration and nitrogen deposition,have resulted in a significant increase in African terrestrial NPP during 1980-2009,with the largest contribution from tropical forests.