Investigation of two coronal mass ejections from circular ribbon source region:Origin,Sun-Earth propagation and Geoeffectiveness

In this article,we compare the properties of two coronal mass ejections(CMEs)that show similar source region characteristics but different evolutionary behaviors in the later phases.We discuss the two events in terms of their near-Sun characteristics,interplanetary evolution and geoeffectiveness.We carefully analyzed the initiation and propagation parameters of these events to establish the precise CMEinterplanetary CME(ICME)connection and their near-Earth consequences.The first event is associated with poor geomagnetic storm disturbance index(Dst≈-20 n T)while the second event is associated with an intense geomagnetic storm of DST≈-119 n T.The configuration of the sunspots in the active regions and their evolution are observed by Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager(HMI).For source region imaging,we rely on data obtained from Atmospheric Imaging Assembly(AIA)on board Solar Dynamics Observatory(SDO)and Hαfiltergrams from the Solar Tower Telescope at Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Sciences(ARIES).For both the CMEs,flux rope eruptions from the source region triggered flares of similar intensities(≈M1).At the solar source region of the eruptions,we observed a circular ribbon flare(CRF)for both cases,suggesting fan-spine magnetic configuration in the active region corona.The multi-channel SDO observations confirm that the eruptive flares and subsequent CMEs were intimately related to the filament eruption.Within the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronograph(LASCO)field of view(FOV)the two CMEs propagated with linear speeds of 671 and 631 km s-1,respectively.These CMEs were tracked up to the Earth by Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory(STEREO)instruments.We find that the source region evolution of CMEs,guided by the large-scale coronal magnetic field configuration,along with near-Sun propagation characteristics,such as CME-CME interactions,played important roles in deciding the evolution of CMEs in the interplanetary medium and subsequently their geoeffectiveness.

Influence of coronal holes on CMEs in causing SEP events

The issue of the influence of coronal holes （CHs） on coronal mass ejections （CMEs） in causing solar energetic particle （SEP） events is revisited. It is a continuation and extension of our previous work, in which no evident effects of CHs on CMEs in generating SEPs were found by statistically investigating 56 CME events. This result is consistent with the conclusion obtained by Kahler in 2004. We extrapolate the coronal magnetic field, define CHs as the regions consisting of only open magnetic field lines and perform a similar analysis on this issue for 76 events in total by extending the study interval to the end of 2008. Three key parameters, CH proximity, CH area and CH relative position, are involved in the analysis. The new result confirms the previous conclusion that CHs did not show any evident effect on CMEs in causing SEP events.

Dependence of large SEP events with different energies on the associated flares and CMEs

To investigate the dependence of large gradual solar energetic particle（SEP） events on the associated flares and coronal mass ejections（CMEs）, the correlation coefficients（CCs） between peak intensities of E 〉 10 MeV（I10）, E 〉 30 MeV（I30） and E 〉 50 MeV（I50） protons and soft X-ray（SXR） emission of associated flares and the speeds of associated CMEs in the three longitudinal areas W0–W39, W40–W70（hereafter the well connected region） and W71–W90 have been calculated.Classical correlation analysis shows that CCs between SXR emission and peak intensities of SEP events always reach their largest value in the well connected region and then decline dramatically in the longitudinal area outside the well connected region, suggesting that they may contribute to the production of SEPs in large SEP events. Both classical and partial correlation analyses show that SXR fluence is a better parameter describing the relationship between flares and SEP events. For large SEP events with source location in the well connected region, the CCs between SXR fluence and I10, I30 and I50 are0.58±0.12, 0.80±0.06 and 0.83±0.06 respectively, while the CCs between CME speed and I10, I30 and I50 are 0.56±0.12, 0.52±0.13 and 0.48±0.13 respectively. The partial correlation analyses show that in the well connected region, both CME shock and SXR fluence can significantly affect I10, but SXR peak flux makes no additional contribution. For E 〉 30 MeV protons with source location in the well connected region, only SXR fluence can significantly affect I30, and the CME shock makes a small contribution to I30, but SXR peak flux makes no additional contribution. For E 〉 50 MeV protons with source location in the well connected region, only SXR fluence can significantly affect I50, but both CME shock and SXR peak flux make no additional contribution. We conclude that these findings provide statistical evidence that for SEP events with source locations in the well connected region, a CME shock is only an effective accelerator for E 〈 30 MeV protons. However, flares are not only effective accelerators for E 〈 30 MeV protons, but also for E 〉 30 MeV protons, and E 〉 30 MeV protons may be mainly accelerated by concurrent flares.

Dependence of E ≥ 100 MeV protons on the associated flares and CMEs

To investigate the possible solar source of high-energy protons, correlation coefficients between the peak intensities of E ≥ 100 MeV protons, I100, and the peak flux and fluence of solar soft X-ray（SXR） emission, and coronal mass ejection（CME） linear speed in the three longitudinal areas W0-W39, W40-W70 and W71-W90 have been calculated respectively. Classical correlation analysis shows that the correlation coefficients between CME speeds and I100 in the three longitudinal areas are0.28±0.21, 0.35±0.21 and 0.04±0.30 respectively. The classical correlation coefficients between I100 and SXR peak flux in the three longitudinal areas are 0.48±0.17, 0.72±0.13 and 0.02±0.30 respectively, while the correlation coefficients between I100 and SXR fluence in the three longitudinal areas are 0.25±0.21, 0.84±0.07 and 0.10±0.30 respectively. Partial correlation analysis shows that for solar proton events with source location in the well connected region（W40-W70）, only SXR fluence can significantly affect the peak intensity of E ≥ 100 MeV protons, but SXR peak flux has little influence on the peak intensities of E ≥ 100 MeV protons; moreover, CME speed has no influence on the peak intensities of E ≥ 100 MeV protons. We conclude that these findings provide statistical evidence that E ≥ 100 MeV protons may be mainly accelerated by concurrent flares.

Magnetic Properties of Metric Noise Storms Associated with Coronal Mass Ejections

Using Nancay Radioheliograph （NRH） imaging observations, combined with SOHO/Michelson Doppler Imager （MDI） magnetogram observations and coronal magnetic field extrapolation, we studied the magnetic nature of metric noise storms that are associated with coronal mass ejections （CMEs）. Four events arc selected： the events of 2000 July 14, 2001 April 26, 2002 August 16 and 2001 March 28. The identified noise storm sources cover or partially cover the active regions （ARs）, but the centers of storm sources are offset from the ARs. Using extrapolated magnetic field lines, we find that the noise storm sources trace the boundary between the open and closed field lines. We demonstrate that the disappearance of noise storm source is followed by the appearance of the burst source. The burst sources spread on the solar disk and their distributions correspond to the extent of the CME in LASCO C2 field of view. All the SOHO/Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope （EIT） dimmings associated with noise storm sources are located at the periphery of noise storms where the magnetic lines of force were previously closed and low-lying. When the closed field becomes partially or fully open, the basic configurations of noise storm sources are changed, then the noise storm sources are no longer observed. These observations provide the information that the variations of noise storms manifest the restructuring or reconfiguring of the coronal magnetic field.

The inversion of the real kinematic properties of coronal mass ejections by forward modeling

Kinematic properties of coronal mass ejections （CMEs） suffer from projection effects,and it is expected that the real velocity should be larger and the real angular width should be smaller than the apparent values.Several attempts have been taken to correct the projection effects,which however led to an inflated average velocity probably due to the biased choice of CME events.In order to estimate the overall influence of the projection effects on the kinematic properties of the CMEs,we perform a forward modeling of real distributions of CME properties,such as the velocity,the angular width,and the latitude,by requiring their projected distributions to best match observations.Such a matching is conducted by Monte Carlo simulations.According to the derived real distributions,we found that （1） the average real velocity of all non-full-halo CMEs is about 514 km s-1,and the average real angular width is about 33°,in contrast to the corresponding apparent values of 418 km s-1 and 42.7° in observations;（2） For the CMEs with the angular width in the range of 20°-120°,the average real velocity is 510 km s-1 and the average real angular width is 43.4°,in contrast to the corresponding apparent values of 392 km s-1 and 52° in observations.

Energetics and Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections in Different Plasma Environments

Based on previous work, we investigate the propagation of CMEs in a more realistic plasma environment than the isothermal atmosphere, and find that it is a slightly faster reconnection for flux ropes to break free. The average Alfven Mach number MA for the inflow into the reconnection site has to be at least 0.013 in order to give a plausible eruption (compared to MA = 0.005 for the isothermal atmosphere). Taking MA = 0.1, we find that the energy output and the electric field induced inside the current sheet match the temporal behavior inferred from the energetic, long duration, CME-associated X-ray events. The results indicate that catastrophic loss of equilibrium in the coronal magnetic field provides the most promising mechanism for major solar eruptions, and that the more energetic the eruption is, the earlier the associated flare peaks. The variation of the output power with the background field strength revealed by our calculations implies the poor correlation between slow CMEs and solar flares. This work also further confirms the explanation we proposed for the peculiar motion of giant X-ray arches and anomalous post-flare loops. Their kinematic pattern and observed heights are determined by the local Alfven speed and its variation with height.

Why are halo coronal mass ejections faster?

Halo coronal mass ejections （CMEs） have been to be significantly faster than normal CMEs, which is a long-standing puzzle. In order to solve the puzzle, we first investigate the observed properties of 31 limb CMEs that clearly display loopshaped frontal loops. The observational results show a strong tendency that slower CMEs are weaker in white-light intensity. Then, we perform a Monte Carlo simulation of 20000 artificial limb CMEs that have an average velocity of ～523km s -1. The Thomson scattering of these events is calculated when they are assumed to be observed as limb and halo events, respectively. It is found that the white-light inten-sity of many slow CMEs becomes remarkably reduced when they turn from being viewed as a limb event to being viewed as a halo event. When the intensity is below the background solar wind fluctuation, it is assumed that they would be missed by coronagraphs. The average velocity of ＂detectable＂ halo CMEs is ～922km s -1, very close to the observed value. This also indicates that wider events are more likely to be recorded. The results soundly suggest that the higher average velocity of halo CMEs is due to that a majority of slow events and some of narrow fast events carrying less material are so faint that they are blended with the solar wind fluctuations, and therefore are not observed.

Possible radio precursors/signatures of the CMEs onset:radio type Ⅲ bursts and fine structures in the centimeter-metric wavelength region

Seventy-one occurrences of coronal mass ejections （CMEs） associated with radio bursts, seemingly associated with type III bursts/fine structures （FSs）, in the centimeter-metric frequency range during 2003-2005, were obtained with the spectrometers at the National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences （NAOC） and the Culgoora radio spectrometer and are presented. The statistical results of 68 out of 71 events associated with the radio type III bursts or FSs during the initiation or early stages of the CMEs indicate that most CMEs contain the emissions of radio type III bursts/FSs near the time of the CME＇s onset, in spite of their fast or slow speeds. Therefore, we propose that type III bursts and FSs are possible precursors of the onset of CMEs. We stress that the radio type III bursts/FSs in the centimetermetric wavelength region and the CME transients possibly occurred in conjunction with the origin of the coronal precursor structures. Thus, the statistical results support the suggestions that type III bursts/FSs are indicators of extra energy input into the corona at the CMEs＇ onset, and that the type III bursts/FSs are produced primarily due to a coronal instability which eventually triggers the CME process. This may signify that the centimeter-metric radio bursts corresponding to or near the CME＇s onset are caused by the disturbed corona （possibly including minor magnetic reconnections）.

Ensemble prediction model of solar proton events associated with solar flares and coronal mass ejections

An ensemble prediction model of solar proton events （SPEs）, combining the information of solar flares and coronal mass ejections （CMEs）, is built. In this model, solar flares are parameterized by the peak flux, the duration and the longitude. In addition, CMEs are parameterized by the width, the speed and the measurement position angle. The importance of each parameter for the occurrence of SPEs is estimated by the information gain ratio. We find that the CME width and speed are more informative than the flare’s peak flux and duration. As the physical mechanism of SPEs is not very clear, a hidden naive Bayes approach, which is a probability-based calculation method from the field of machine learning, is used to build the prediction model from the observational data. As is known, SPEs originate from solar flares and/or shock waves associated with CMEs. Hence, we first build two base prediction models using the properties of solar flares and CMEs, respectively. Then the outputs of these models are combined to generate the ensemble prediction model of SPEs. The ensemble prediction model incorporating the complementary information of solar flares and CMEs achieves better performance than each base prediction model taken separately.

Numerical simulations of solar energetic particle event timescales associated with ICMEs

Recently, S. W. Kahler studied the timescales of solar energetic particle （SEP） events asso- ciated with coronal mass ejections （CMEs） from analysis of spacecraft data. They obtained different timescales for SEP events, such as TO, the onset time from CME launch to SEP onset, TR, the rise time from onset to half the peak intensity （0.5/p）, and TD, the duration of the SEP intensity above 0.5Ip. In this work, we solve the transport equation for SEPs considering interplanetary coronal mass ejection （ICME） shocks as energetic particle sources. With our modeling assumptions, our simulations show similar results to Kahler＇s analysis of spacecraft data, that the weighted average of TD increases with both CME speed and width. Moreover, from our simulation results, we suggest TD is directly dependent on CME speed, but not dependent on CME width, which were not found in the analysis of observational data.

The energetic relationship among geoeffective solar flares, associated CMEs and SEPs

Major solar eruptions （flares, coronal mass ejections （CMEs） and solar energetic particles （SEPs）） strongly influence geospace and space weather. Currently, the mechanism of their influence on space weather is not well understood and requires a detailed study of the energetic relationship among these eruptive phenomena. From this perspective, we investigate 30 flares （observed by RHESSI）, followed by weak to strong geomagnetic storms. Spectral analysis of these flares suggests a new power-law relationship （r - 0.79） between the hard X-ray （HXR） spectral index （before flarepeak） and linear speed of the associated CME observed by LASCO/SOHO. For 12 flares which were followed by SEP enhancement near Earth, HXR and SEP spectral analysis reveals a new scaling law （r - 0.9） between the hardest X-ray flare spectrum and the hardest SEP spectrum. Furthermore, a strong correlation is obtained between the linear speed of the CME and the hardest spectrum of the corresponding SEP event （r - 0.96）. We propose that the potentially geoeffective flare and associated CME and SEP are well-connected through a possible feedback mechanism, and should be regarded within the framework of a solar eruption. Owing to their space weather effects, these new results will help improve our current understanding of the Sun-Earth relationship, which is a major goal of research programs in heliophysics.

Association of CMEs with solar surface activity during the rise and maximum phases of solar cycles 23 and 24

The cyclical behaviors of sunspots, flares and coronal mass ejections （CMEs） for 54 months from 2008 November to 2013 April after the onset of Solar Cycle （SC） 24 are compared, for the first time, with those of SC 23 from 1996 November to 2001 April. The results are summarized below. （i） During the maximum phase, the number of sunspots in SC 24 is significantly smaller than that for SC 23 and the number of flares in SC 24 is comparable to that of SC 23. （ii） The number of CMEs in SC 24 is larger than that in SC 23 and the speed of CMEs in SC 24 is smaller than that of SC 23 during the maximum phase. We individually survey all the CMEs （1647 CMEs） from 2010 June to 2011 June. A total of 161 CMEs associated with so- lar surface activity events can be identified. About 45% of CMEs are associated with quiescent prominence eruptions, 27% of CMEs only with solar flares, 19% of CMEs with both active-region prominence eruptions and solar flares, and 9% of CMEs only with active-region prominence eruptions. Comparing the association of the CMEs and their source regions in SC 24 with that in SC 23, we notice that the characteristics of source regions for CMEs during SC 24 may be different from those of SC 23.

Peak flux of flares associated with coronal mass ejections

Features of flares that occur in association with coronal mass ejections （CMEs） have often displayed variations compared to flares with no associated CMEs. A comparative estimation of peak flux values of flares associated with CMEs and those without CMEs is made. Peak flux values of flares associated with CMEs show distinctly higher values in comparison to flares with no associated CMEs. Higher peak flux of CME associated flares may be attributed to the heating of plasma to higher tempera- ture when associated with CMEs. While providing a distinct difference between the flux values of flares clearly associated with CMEs compared to flares associated with no CMEs, this study also highlights an evident difficulty in making distinct flare-CME associations.

Speed Distributions of CMEs in Cycle 23 at Low and High Latitudes

We analyzed the speed （v） distributions of 11584 coronal mass ejections （CMEs） observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory （SOHO/LASCO） in cycle 23 from 1996 to 2006. We find that the speed distributions for high-latitude （HL） and low-latitude （LL） CME events are nearly identical and to a good approximation they can be fitted with a lognormal distribution. This finding implies that statistically the same driving mechanism of a nonlinear nature is acting in both HL and LL CME events, and CMEs are intrinsically associated with the source＇s magnetic structure on large spatial scales. Statistically, the HL CMEs are slightly slower than the LL CMEs. For HL and LL CME events respectively, the speed distributions for accelerating and decelerating events are nearly identical and also to a good approximation they can be both fitted with a lognormal distribution, thus supplementing the results obtained by Yurchyshyn et al.

Flares before and after coronal mass ejections

Flare characteristics such as the flare occurrence number density and the distribution of peak flux as well as duration of flares occurring on either side of a coronal mass ejection（CME） onset time are studied. While the flares are rather evenly distributed statistically on either side of the CME onset time,the flare peak flux and duration tend to decrease depending upon their occurrence either before or after the CME onset. This is consistent with the earlier findings that flares emit higher energy before a CME whereas the energy is less in flares occurring after a CME.

Geoeffectiveness of the coronal mass ejections associated with solar proton events

The intensity-time profiles of solar proton events（SPEs） are grouped into three types in the present study. The Type-I means that the intensity-time profile of an SPE has one peak, which occurs shortly after the associated solar flare and coronal mass ejection（CME）. The Type-II means that the SPE profile has two peaks： the first peak occurs shortly after the solar eruption, the second peak occurs at the time when the CME-driven shock reaches the Earth, and the intensity of the second peak is lower than the first one.If the intensity of the second peak is higher than the first one, or the SPE intensity increases continuously until the CME-driven shock reaches the Earth, this kind of intensity-time profile is defined as Type-III. It is found that most CMEs associated with Type-I SPEs have no geoeffectiveness and only a small part of CMEs associated with Type-I SPEs can produce minor（–50 n T ≤ Dst ≤–30 n T） or moderate geomagnetic storms（–100 n T≤ Dst ≤–50 n T）, but never an intense geomagnetic storm（–200 n T ≤ Dst 〈-100 n T）. However,most of the CMEs associated with Type-II and Type-III SPEs can produce intense or great geomagnetic storms（Dst ≤-200 n T）. The solar wind structures responsible for the geomagnetic storms associated with SPEs with different intensity-time profiles have also been investigated and discussed.

Periodicity in the most violent solar eruptions: recent observations of coronal mass ejections and flares revisited

Using the Hilbert-Huang Transform method, we investigate the periodic- ity in the monthly occurrence numbers and monthly mean energy of coronal mass ejections （CMEs） observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment on board the Solar and Heliographic Observatory from 1999 March to 2009 December. We also investigate the periodicity in the monthly occurrence numbers of Hα flares and monthly mean flare indices from 1996 January to 2008 December. The results show the following. （1） The period of 5.66 yr is found to be statistically significant in the monthly occurrence numbers of CMEs; the period of 10.5 yr is found to be statistically significant in the monthly mean energy of CMEs. （2） The periods of 3.05 and 8.70 yr are found to be statistically significant in the monthly occurrence numbers of Hα flares; the period of 9.14 yr is found to be statistically significant in the monthly mean flare indices.

The Analysis of Interplanetary Shocks Associated with Six Major Geo-Effective Coronal Mass Ejections during Solar Cycle 24

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is an ejection of energetic plasma with magnetic field from the Sun. In traversing the Sun-Earth distance, the kinematics of the CME is immensely important for the prediction of space weather. The objective of the present work is to study the propagation properties of six major geo-effective CMEs and their associated interplanetary shocks which were observed during solar cycle 24. These reported CME events produced intense geo-magnetic storms (Dst > 140 nT). The six CME events have a broad range of initial linear speeds ~600 - 2700 km/sec in the LASCO/SOHO field of view, comparing two slow CMEs (speed ~579 km/sec and 719 km/sec), three moderate speed CMEs (speed ~1366, 1571, 1008 km/sec), and one fast CME (speed ~2684 km/sec). The actual arrival time of the reported events is compared with the arrival time calculated using the Empirical Shock Arrival model (ESA model). For acceleration estimation, we utilize three different acceleration-speed equations reported in the previous literatures for different acceleration cessation distance (ACD). In addition, we compared the transit time estimated using the second-order speed of CMEs with observed transit time. We also compared the observed transit time with transit time obtained from various shock arrival model. From our present study, we found the importance of acceleration cessation distance for CME propagation in interplanetary space and better acceleration speed for transit time calculation than other equations for CME forecasting.