Fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making method-based operational assessment of Chinese electricity markets

The evaluation of the electricity market is crucial for fostering market construction and development.An accurate assessment of the electricity market reveals developmental trends,identifies operational issues,and contributes to stable and healthy market growth.This study investigated the characteristics of electricity markets in different provinces and synthesized a comprehensive set of evaluation indicators to assess market effectiveness.The evaluation framework,comprising nine indicators organized into two tiers,was constructed based on three aspects:market design,market efficiency,and developmental coordination.Furthermore,a novel fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making evaluation model for electricity market performance was developed based on the Fuzzy-BWM and fuzzy COPRAS methodologies.This model aimed to ensure both accuracy and comprehensiveness in market operation assessment.Subsequently,empirical analyses were conducted on four typical provincial-level electricity markets in China.The results indicate that Guangdong’s electricity market performed best because of its effective balance of stakeholder interests and adherence to contractual integrity principles.Zhejiang and Shandong ranked second and third,respectively,whereas Sichuan exhibited the poorest market performance.Sichuan’s electricity market must be improved in terms of market design,such that market players can obtain a fairly competitive environment.The sensitivity analysis of the constructed indicators verified the effectiveness of the evaluation model proposed in this study.Finally,policy recommendations were proposed to facilitate the sustainable development of China’s electricity markets with the objective of transforming them into efficient and secure markets adaptable to the evolution of novel power systems.

Energy Storage Operation Modes in Typical Electricity Market and Their Implications for China

As the Chinese government proposes ambitious plans to promote low-carbon transition,energy storage will play a pivotal role in China’s future power system.However,due to the lack of a mature electricity market environment and corresponding mechanisms,current energy storage in China faces problems such as unclear operational models,insufficient cost recovery mechanisms,and a single investment entity,making it difficult to support the rapid development of the energy storage industry.In contrast,European and American countries have already embarked on certain practices in energy storage operation models.Through exploration of key issues such as investment entities,market participation forms,and cost recovery channels in both front and back markets,a wealth of mature experiences has been accumulated.Therefore,this paper first summarizes the existing practices of energy storage operation models in North America,Europe,and Australia’s electricity markets separately from front and back markets,finding that perfect market mechanisms and reasonable subsidy policies are among the main drivers for promoting the rapid development of energy storage markets.Subsequently,combined with the actual development of China’s electricity market,it explores three key issues affecting the construction of costsharing mechanisms for energy storage under market conditions:Market participation forms,investment and operation modes,and cost recovery mechanisms.Finally,in line with the development expectations of China’s future electricitymarket,suggestions are proposed fromfour aspects:Market environment construction,electricity price formation mechanism,cost sharing path,and policy subsidy mechanism,to promote the healthy and rapid development of China’s energy storage industry.

Study on the Synergetic Mechanism for the Dynamic Evaluation of Electricity Market Operational Efficiency

In Synergetics, when a complex system evolves from one sate to another, the order parameter plays a dominant role. We can analyze the complex system state by studying the dynamic of order parameter. We developed a synergetic model of electricity market operation system, and studied the dynamic process of the system with empirical example, which revealed the internal mechanism of the system evolution. In order to verify the accuracy of the synergetic model, fourth-order Runge-Kutta algorithm and grey relevance method were used. Finally, we found that the reserve rate of generation was the order parameter of the system. Then we can use the principle of Synergetics to evaluate the efficiency of electricity market operation.

Experiences of the Electricity System Operator Incentive Scheme in Great Britain

National Grid is the electricity system operator in Great Britain and has an unique feature in so far as it is one of the world’s few for-profit system operators. In addition, the commercially orientation of the British market rules means that nearly every action taken by National Grid to operate the system has a cost associated to it. Based on those factors and in order to encourage National Grid to seek continuous improvements and drive for efficient and economic system operation, the regulator (Ofgem) offers an incentive scheme, whereby a target is agreed annually and any savings in relation to this target are shared between consumers and National Grid in the form of a profit. It is in National Grid’s best interest to have mechanisms to mitigate the impacts of volatility in the costs it faces as system operator so that it can implement cost saving actions without the risk of windfall losses (or gains) arising from sudden changes in uncontrollable drivers. The purpose of this paper is to share the experiences of National Grid in the operation of Great Britain's electricity system, with a special interest on the mechanisms created to manage the associated costs in response to the incentive scheme. It does so by describing the market operation in Great Britain and the costs drivers impacting National Grid’s system operation and illustrating the steps recently taken by National Grid to propose volatility mitigation mechanisms. It concludes with the rationale and expected results from the latest proposals as consulted with the industry for introduction in the incentive scheme starting on 1st April 2011. It is worth noting that with this work, the authors wish to both share the experience with other system operators and regulators in the world, as well as give British market participants an insight on the inner workings of National Grid.

Operation Cost Optimization Method of Regional Integrated Energy System in Electricity Market Environment Considering Uncertainty

In the electricity market environment,the regional integrated energy system(RIES)can reduce the total operation cost by participating in electricity market transactions.However,the RIES will face the risk of load and electricity price uncertainties,which may make its operation cost higher than expected.This paper proposes a method to optimize the operation cost of the RIES in the electricity market environment considering uncertainty.Firstly,based on the operation cost structure of the RIES in the electricity market environment,the energy flow relationship of the RIES is analyzed,and the operation cost model of the RIES is built.Then,the electricity purchase costs of the RIES in the medium-and long-term electricity markets,the spot electricity market,and the retail electricity market are analyzed.Finally,considering the risk of load and electricity price uncertainties,the operation cost optimization model of the RIES is established based on conditional value-at-risk.Then it is solved to obtain the operation cost optimization strategy of the RIES.Verification results show that the proposed operation cost optimization method can reduce the operation cost of high electricity price scenario by optimizing the energy purchase and distribution strategy,constrain the risk of load and electricity price uncertainties,and help balance the risks and benefits.

新型电力系统中的规划运营与电力市场:研究进展与科研实践

“碳达峰、碳中和”战略目标下,能源结构清洁化—可再生能源并网比例不断提高、能源要素多元化—发输配用各环节海量灵活性资源接入两大趋势带来的挑战,对电力规划、调度运营、电力市场产生了重大影响。规划中如何综合考虑海量运行场景与多元化要素,运营中如何高效调度多样灵活性资源,市场如何设计机制激励主体提供灵活性,都是新型电力系统建设亟待解决的问题。该文从电力规划、调度运营、电力市场3个层面出发,对近年来新型电力系统中规划运营与电力市场的相关研究进展进行系统梳理,涵盖基础理论、机制设计、应用研究、系统研发等多类型研究文献。进一步从规划、调度、市场3个方面展望未来研究趋势,如新型要素接入下的电网韧性、电碳耦合调度理论与高效求解技术、辅助服务与容量市场交易品类、考虑储能等新型主体的市场交易机制等,以期为我国新型电力系统的建设提供有益参考。

Future Market of Small Reactors and Feasibility Study in Mongolia

The relation between the implementation time of small reactor and its market was studied if small reactor could be implemented to be utilized as a base load operation. If the small reactors with 100 or 50 MWe could be implemented from 2020, the potential countries could be selected from the view point of the estimated total electricity consumption in 2020 and the stability of the electrical grid system. The commercialization of small reactors should be best done early because the market for these power units as a base load operation might be reduced due to the increase of the electricity consumption in the future after 2020. The implementation program of small reactors for the district heating and electricity supply in Mongolia, which is one of the countries having the interests in small reactor, was investigated and the future implementation plan was proposed too. In order to reduce the air pollution by coal fired heating system, there is an urgent need to start the discussion for the utilization of nuclear district heating reactor in Ulaanbaatar.

考虑充放电激励机制的电动汽车聚合商参与能量-调频市场多阶段运营策略

完善电动汽车(EV)主动参与充放电双向互动调频的激励机制,综合考虑EV充放电行为在能量-调频市场中的多阶段交互影响,有利于准确评估聚合商参与电力市场的收益。提出了EV聚合商参与多品种市场的多阶段运营策略,以实现聚合商的运营收益最大化。基于充电行为特征的统计数据,建立单体EV的功率及能量响应边界,并考虑用户参与充电和放电控制的差异性,结合用户自身偏好、电池损耗,提出EV集群的充放电激励机制,并在此基础上建立EV集群功率及能量的响应边界约束。基于EV充放电调节控制的时序性和多阶段市场的调频需求,建立考虑多阶段时序交互的多品种市场运营收益优化模型。结合PJM市场的运营案例,验证所提充放电激励机制和运营策略的有效性,结果表明其能在保障用户充电需求的基础上,有效提升聚合商参与能量-调频市场的收益。

山西电力备用辅助服务市场机制设计与实践

电力备用辅助服务市场是反映备用服务价值、引导传统火电和新型主体积极提供备用服务、支撑新型电力系统构建的重要机制。山西在电力现货市场和调频辅助服务市场正式运行的基础上,针对新能源高占比下电网备用灵活调节资源不足的问题,研究提出了主辅协调的正备用辅助服务市场交易机制。在市场机制设计上,山西采用现货电能量市场和正备用市场的总费用最低为目标确定机组组合、再顺次出清备用和电能量市场的半耦合出清协调模式,并给予备用服务供应商除中标容量补偿以外的富余发电容量补偿费用,以充分反映备用服务保供应和促消纳的双重价值。算例分析及山西正备用市场模拟试运行结果表明,备用服务市场建设有利于发现备用调节价值,优化系统调节资源配置,相关成果可为国内备用市场建设提供参考。

基于大语言模型的电力系统通用人工智能展望:理论与应用

大语言模型(LLM)是一种利用大规模文本语料库进行预训练和微调的深度学习语言模型。目前,在通识问答、文本生成和科学推理等方面已展现出强大的能力。在此背景下,文中探索了基于LLM构建面向电力系统的通用人工智能技术,并展望其在电力系统中的潜在应用。首先,介绍了LLM的基本原理、神经网络架构以及训练方法,特别是与传统人工智能模型相比,LLM在逻辑推理、编程和代码理解以及数学推理方面的突破。然后,展望了LLM在电力系统负荷与新能源发电出力预测、电力系统规划、电力系统运行、电力系统故障诊断与系统恢复、电力市场等领域的潜在应用。最后,阐述了基于LLM构建电力系统通用人工智能技术所面临的挑战,包括电力系统数据的质量与可获取性、输出结果可解释性以及隐私保护问题。

考虑灵活爬坡产品的虚拟电厂两阶段分布鲁棒优化运营策略

随着“碳达峰·碳中和”目标的提出,可再生能源大规模并网对电力系统灵活运行提出了更高要求。虚拟电厂(VPP)通过聚合分布式资源,将灵活爬坡产品(FRP)纳入运营策略,参与多类型电力市场以提升运营收益。基于此,提出了考虑FRP的VPP两阶段分布鲁棒优化(DRO)运营策略。首先,考虑高比例可再生能源渗透率下的FRP市场,结合多类型分布式资源运行特性,提出VPP参与多类型电力市场的优化运营框架;其次,结合基于Wasserstein距离的可再生能源出力不确定集和基于场景分析法的电力市场价格典型场景集,构建考虑FRP的VPP日前投标和日内调度两阶段DRO模型;最后,以某VPP为例对所提模型进行有效性验证。算例结果表明,所提VPP运营策略具有较好的调度经济性与风险鲁棒性,在参与多类型电力市场交易中能够实现运营收益最大化。

基于机会约束的售电公司共享储能经济运行优化

针对自有共享储能的售电公司的经济运行优化问题,从产消者共享售电公司所投资共享储能的角度,研究了一种售电公司的新型商业模式。考虑源侧与荷侧的不确定性因素,建立了售电公司共享储能服务运营策略的主从博弈模型,其上层负责求解售电公司最优共享储能服务定价和购售电策略问题,下层负责求解产消者最优运行策略问题,并基于机会约束模型描述源、荷不确定性。根据下层的KKT条件将下层模型转化为上层模型的约束条件,并利用大M法对非线性约束进行线性化。基于3个典型场景算例验证所提新型交互模式的可行性,分析售电公司共享储能服务定价方法和不确定性因素对收益的影响。

考虑风险偏好的多主体虚拟电厂经济调度与收益分配策略

虚拟电厂(VPP)在新型电力系统中的地位日益凸显,而可聚合分布式能源(DER)的VPP内部风电机组、光伏发电机组的随机性和波动性负荷等不确定因素给VPP的运营决策和收益带来风险。如何建立公平、合理、透明的利益分配机制是成功维护VPP内DER合作关系的关键。为了激励VPP内部各主体参与市场的积极性,各主体可根据自身特点与贡献度协商分配收益,构建计及风险偏好的包含风电机组、光伏发电、可控分布式电源、储能及柔性负荷的多主体VPP内部优化调度决策模型,参与电力市场,并建立Nash-Harsanyi讨价还价解的VPP利益分配模型。算例分析以VPP最大化运行效益为目标,指导系统运营策略和降低VPP运行风险水平,验证了所提利益分配法能有效平衡各方利益,量化各DER对VPP利润的实际贡献度,提高各成员参与市场竞争的积极性。采用Nash-Harsanyi解的分配方案在VPP收益分配合理性和适用性方面优于Shapley值法方案。

沙戈荒基地外送全环节经济性测算及市场竞争力分析

在风光火储打捆基地外送价格形成机制尚不明确且暂无可借鉴成熟经验的背景下,对沙戈荒基地外送经济性测算展开分析与讨论。首先考虑以系统运行成本最小为目标搭建了生产运行模拟模型,并基于经营期法和按发电量比例分配原则搭建打捆送电成本电价测算模型。以沙戈荒基地外送某典型工程为例,对基地发电、送电等外送全环节经济性进行了测算。进一步从打捆电源配置、标准煤单价、增配储能、考虑调峰收益、单位造价等几方面分析影响沙戈荒基地发电成本电价的主要因素,并通过比较受端区域燃煤发电基准价与测算的落地成本电价对市场竞争力进行分析讨论。案例的分析结果从经济成本与市场竞争力角度对沙戈荒基地外送工程规划、建设及定价机制设计具有借鉴作用,对全面贯彻落实碳达峰碳中和战略决策,服务能源转型和清洁绿色低碳发展具有重大意义。

考虑能量-调频辅助服务下的用户侧储能经济运行策略

目前用户侧储能的投资回报期一般长达6~7年。为进一步提升用户侧储能经济运行收益,提出一种电能量和调频辅助服务市场规则下的经济运行策略。首先综合考虑峰谷价差套利和参与调频建立用户侧储能经济收益模型;其次,分析电力用户生产运行需求并建立用户侧储能运行约束;基于此,提出用户侧储能的两阶段经济运行策略,在日前给出用户侧储能最优调频容量申报量,在日内基于改进直接前瞻方法滚动优化用户侧储能充放电功率,提高整体运行经济性。最后,仿真结果表明所提策略能够有效提高用户侧储能运行经济性。

市场环境下灵活性资源虚拟电厂聚合调控关键技术综述

灵活性资源技术快速发展、数量与日俱增,为提升电力系统灵活性和经济效益提供了巨大潜力。虚拟电厂通过对海量异构灵活性资源协调管理和聚合调控,为支撑海量异构分散式资源参与电力市场交易提供了有效手段。针对电力市场环境下虚拟电厂中多元海量异构灵活性资源的难以高效管控、不同运营主体之间存在效益冲突、能量和辅助服务之间具有耦合关系等问题,对电力市场环境下灵活性资源虚拟电厂全链路运营过程中面临的技术挑战、当前研究进展和未来攻关方向进行了分析和总结。从灵活性资源虚拟电厂的聚合建模、竞标报价、运行控制3方面展开分析,对相关主流技术方法的模型特征、关联关系和适用场景进行了系统性归纳,以此全面认识电力市场环境下灵活性资源虚拟电厂涉及的关键科学问题、核心理论方法和主流技术方案等,为灵活性资源虚拟电厂的未来研究方向和技术发展提供建议。

考虑电力中长期及现货市场衔接的月内融合交易模式及统一限价研究

在电力市场“中长期+现货”背景下,针对电力中长期与现货衔接问题,探寻高比例新能源入市下月内融合交易市场边界,研究统一限价对社会福利与曲线分解的影响,分析月内融合交易模式对市场衔接的作用。首先,考虑市场中存在的问题,探讨可行的解决方式。其次基于市场预测,构建市场主体的报价与目标函数,结合不平衡电量,构建社会福利最大化市场出清模型,采用A-NSGA-Ⅲ算法进行求解,得到市场出清情况与对应的最优限价范围。最后通过算例验证了统一限价与细分时段的优势,给出了统一限价设定的市场化途径,同时保证了市场主体利益与市场活力,表明了统一限价模式下月内融合交易市场有利于市场主体灵活交易,促进了中长期与现货市场的衔接。

电力现货市场中的场外调整成因分析及量化评估

在电力现货市场中,为保障具有充足的调度资源应对实时运行场景变化,系统运营商仍需在日前市场出清的基础上进行场外调整。场外调整将缓解日前市场出清模型与实际系统运行边界间的差异性,确保电网的安全可靠运行。然而,由于场外调整并非市场环节,引入非市场化调整将影响电力现货市场的整体运行效率。因此,场外调整对现货市场的影响需要进一步分析。该文介绍国外典型的市场流程和场外调整,探讨场外调整的成因。通过算例的调度结果对比,从市场剩余变化和市场运行成本两方面量化评估场外调整的市场影响。该文希望通过研究国外的市场流程与场外调整方法,为我国电力现货市场中的非市场资源配置行为建模及改善提供研究思路。

考虑现金流和碳清缴周期的发电商电碳现货市场决策优化

为有效利用碳配额按年核算清缴带来的灵活性并形成满足现金流约束的电碳现货市场决策,在全年视角下研究了发电商电碳现货市场每日决策问题。首先,考虑各种经营活动的结算周期,建立带有现金流约束的电碳市场全年视角随机决策模型;然后,采用混合时间步长建模,在能够描述现金结算周期的前提下减少决策变量,并将多阶段随机优化模型简化为两阶段随机优化模型以便于求解;最后,通过增加碳市场单向交易规则解决传统两阶段模型在第2阶段频繁投机交易的问题,增加碳市场择时交易规则以解决两阶段模型对未来购碳成本预期偏低的问题。算例分析表明,所提决策方案能够有效降低发电商购碳成本并提高全年整体收益,同时保障了现金流安全。