RMB Exchange Rate,Overseas Education,and High-Quality Economic Growth

China is transitioning its industrial structure from labor-and resource-intensive industries that previously contributed significantly to the country’s GDP growth to technology-intensive industries emphasizing a highly-skilled workforce and sustainability to achieve high-quality economic growth.This paper examines the impact of the RMB exchange rate on high-quality economic growth through theoretical modeling and empirical analysis and discusses the variable of overseas education to explore the mechanism of how the RMB exchange rate and overseas education jointly impact high-quality economic growth.The research sample includes the National Bureau of Statistics data on education from 1995 to 2015,the Bank for International Settlements(BIS)data on the RMB exchange rate,and the added value of China’s high-quality economic growth estimated based on the national economy data.An empirical analysis of theoretical expectations was conducted,finding that RMB appreciation could make a positive contribution to China’s high-quality economic growth;RMB exchange rate fluctuations would impact the relative cost of overseas education and overseas returnees could have a positive impact on domestic resource utilization efficiency and domestic capacity to make sci-tech innovations,thereby injecting vitality to high-quality economic growth.This study focuses on both the RMB exchange rate and the population studying abroad,providing additional observation dimensions to existing research.

Discount rate and research progress in economic analysis on climate change

This paper has organized and summarized the economic analysis on climate change from five angles,namely,connotation of discount rate,identification of and dispute about discount rate,discounting way,impact of the discount rate,and the integrated evaluation model of climate change impact and the discount evaluation.As the climate change economic analysis shows,there is a major dispute about discount rate between the market school and the ethic school.Rate of discount largely relates to the present value of potential loss attributable to climate change,and then influences the selection of policies for adapting and slowing down climate change.In the past,the constant index discount was adopted as the main way.But with the full understanding of discount rate,the uncertainty of loss attributable to climate change has been considered in the discount.

Sources of inaccuracy when estimating economically optimum N fertilizer rates

Nitrogen rate trials are often performed to determine the economically optimum N application rate. For this purpose, the yield is modeled as a function of the N application. The regression analysis provides an estimate of the modeled function and thus also an estimate of the economic optimum, Nopt. Obtaining the accuracy of such estimates by confidence intervals for Nopt is subject to the model assumptions. The dependence of these assumptions is a further source of inaccuracy. The Nopt estimate also strongly depends on the N level design, i.e., the area on which the model is fitted. A small area around the supposed Nopt diminishes the dependence of the model assumptions, but prolongs the confidence interval. The investigations of the impact of the mentioned sources on the inaccuracy of the Nopt estimate rely on N rate trials on the experimental field Sieblerfeld (Bavaria). The models applied are the quadratic and the linear-plus-plateau yield regression model.

Effect of interest rate on economic performance: evidence from Islamic and non-Islamic economies

Background:Saving and investment are two of the most important tools for economic growth.The interest rate has always been considered an important determinant of saving and investment.However,according to Islamic teachings,riba or earning interest on saving or investment is forbidden,and thus,many Muslims try to avoid earning income from the interest rate.Therefore,the aim of this study is to assess the effects of this religious guideline on the financial decisions of an Islamic country’s population and its impact on saving and investment.Methods:We applied the random effect and system generalized method of moments(GMM)model separately to data of 17 non-Islamic and 17 Islamic countries from 2005 to 2013.Results:The results suggest that people in Islamic countries are not concerned about the interest rate on saving,but in non-Islamic countries,the interest rate,per capita income,and inflation have significant positive impacts,and national expenditure has a significant negative impact on saving.However,in Islamic countries,remittances received and national expenditure have negative significant impacts,and per capita income has a positive significant impact on saving.In the case of investment,interest rate and inflation show a negative effect on investment while trade affects investment positively in both Islamic and non-Islamic countries.Furthermore,domestic credit provided by banks has a negative significant effect on investment in non-Islamic countries,while in Islamic countries,remittances show a positive significant impact on investment.Conclusions:The governments and policy makers of Islamic countries should not imitate the economic policies of non-Islamic countries because religious factors play an important role in the interest rate-saving relationship.Instead,they should increase per capita income by improving employment conditions and by reducing remittances received and national expenditure.Policies on saving should not allow earning interest.Furthermore,in order to increase investment,efforts should be made to lower the interest rate and inflation,and to enhance remittances received and trade.These policies will increase saving and investment in Islamic countries,ultimately resulting in improved economic growth.

Economically Optimal Rates and Nutrients Use Efficiency Indices of Maize to the Application of Different Rates of Nutrients in Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

The use of balanced fertilizers in adequate amount is very important to increase crop productivity and production in Ethiopia. The study was executed to quantify maize (Zea mays L.) grain yield response to different rates of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K) and sulfur (S) under balanced fertilization of other nutrients. On farm trials were conducted at seven sites on 8 farmers’ fields in Negele Arsi districts, west Arsi zone of Oromia region for three consecutive cropping seasons (2014-2016). Six rates of N, P, S and eight rates of K treatments established separately for each nutrient were laid out in randomized complete block (RCB) design with three replicates per farm. Nutrient response function modelling showed that 184, 20 and 80 kg•ha−1 were the agronomic optimum rate for N, P, and K, respectively. Mean agronomic efficiency (AE) of N, P and K were recorded at the lower rates of these nutrients, application of 46, 10 and 20 kg•ha−1 N, P and K resulted in 19.1, 61.0, and 24 kg additional grain yield•kg−1 N, P and K, respectively. Also, the mean partial factor productivity (PFP) of N, P and K were 77.6, 370 and 158 kg additional grain•kg−1 applied N, P and K respectively. Economically optimal rate (EOR) of N, P and K were 48 - 114 kg•ha−1 N with CP 8 - 3.5, 12 - 20 kg•ha−1 P with CP 18 - 4.5 and 32 - 53 kg•ha−1 K with CP 8-4, from these rates net returns of US$487.23 - 143.30, US$698.16 - 498.3 and US$359.31 - 193.63 could be obtained respectively. To conclude, application of 84, 12 and 40 kg•ha−1 N, P and K could be recommended for the production of maize.

The Relationship between Corporate Real Estate and Economic Cycle

Studies on the relationship between corporate real estate(CRE)and economic cycles are very thin,especially from developing countries,such as South Africa.More,in practice,most firms hardly dedicate enough resources to CRE divisions.This leads to that management not fully maximises the wealth of shareholders.This study uses multi-linear regression to test how GDP,interest rate,and total corporate costs react to changes in CRE.The sample is made up of blue chip firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange(JSE).The results reveal mixed bag solutions-for certain firms;GDP,interest rate,and corporate costs are statistically significant and vice versa.More,this analysis can be replicated to other similar industries and indices around the world.

Non-regular Employment of Women,Fertility Rate,and Economic Growth

This study analyzes the interaction between non-regular employment of women and economic growth patterns by an overlapping-generations model.Declining Birthrate White Paper-Cabinet Office(2013)shows the ideal number of children per household is 2.42 compared to the current number of 2.07,which is the lowest so far in Japan.The main reason households do not have the ideal number of children is“the costs burden of childcare and education”and the ratio amounts to 60.4%.In recent years in Japan,households in which both the husband and the wife work are increasing,whereas those in which only the husband works are decreasing.Additionally,although women have same educational background and abilities as men,most women become non-regular employees after marriage and childbirth,which reduces household income.In such a situation,raising the rate of pension insurance will be a big burden for the household and the declining birthrate may be caused by high levels of educational expenditure and pension insurance.The Japanese government has discussed raising the wages of non-regular employees.This paper finds that a rise in the wage rate of non-regular employment is needed under the public pension policy that raises the rate of pension insurance,and it must be at an adequate level.That is,there is a high risk that this policy will have a negative effect on Japan’s economic growth if an adequate level is not achieved.

Real Interest Rates,Real Wages and Economic Restructuring—Analysis Based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(DSGE)

On the basis of research conducted by Long and Plosser(1983),this paper carries out an in-depth analysis on the relationship between real interest rates,real wage,and macro-economy and economic structure by simulating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model and comes to the following conclusions:(1) Increasing the level of real interest rates will expand the share of consumption in GDP,improve the macroeconomic structure,and promote steady economic development;(2) Increasing the level of real wages will enhance economic growth but will not change the economic structure of consumption and investments;(3) Increasing wages will enhance economic growth and expand its share in national income;(4) Increasing wages will not lower output level but will be favorable to the improvement of economic structure.Therefore,this paper argues for interest rates liberalization to achieve long-term,steady economic development in China.

人口结构变化、老龄化趋势及延迟退休对经济增长的影响

检验人口结构对经济增长的影响,预测人口总量及其结构的走势和老龄化的未来趋势,分析人口总量及其结构,尤其是老龄化趋势对经济增长的影响。研究发现:第一,劳动力数量和劳动力占比增加、人口抚养比下降会促进经济增长,在对经济增长的回归中人口结构的解释力不及劳动力数量,但在预测未来时人口结构变化的影响力更大。第二,总人口会在低方案情况下已步入下降通道,如果总和生育率不快速提升的话,中国的老龄化程度在近50年将持续加深。第三,延迟退休可以减少老龄化对经济增长的负面冲击;提高生育率可以减缓老龄化程度,但在短期会抑制经济增长。延迟退休方案增加劳动人口越多,越能促进经济增长,延迟退休实施的力度越大,法定退休年龄越大,对老龄化的缓冲程度越大。如果男女每年延迟退休递增1年,分别最终延迟到70岁和65岁,在一些年份甚至可以完全抵消老龄化的抑制作用。

甘肃省金银花生态种植模式比较

为提高甘肃省金银花的种植效益,探索金银花的生态种植模式,在金银花生长前期套种不同经济作物,分别是金银花+葱(T1)、金银花+花椰菜(T2)、金银花+大豆(T3)、金银花+上海青(T4)、金银花+马铃薯(T5)和金银花+不套种(T6)。研究通过评估金银花的生长指标、土壤水热情况及金银花和套种作物的产量,对比分析了甘肃省金银花生态种植模式对产量和经济效益的影响。结果显示,‘北花一号’在甘肃省种植成活率较高,平均在94.44%以上,当年新生枝芽(条)数为7.81~9.19个,新生枝芽(条)长度为3.39~5.83 cm,生长良好;金银花种植前期效益低,当年无产量,第2年平均产量仅为0.81 kg/10.8 m^(2),平均产值为16.21元/10.8 m^(2);T3处理下金银花产量显著提高,为1.45 kg/10.8 m^(2),较不套种提高158.93%;T4处理的经济效益最好,其中套种作物2年总产量达38.36kg/10.8m^(2),总产值为153.44元/10.8m^(2)。综上所述,金银花前期套种不同经济作物显著提高了经济效益和土地利用率,“金银花+上海青”是一种适合甘肃省金银花栽培的生态种植方法。

全球经济政策不确定性、人民币汇率与中国经济波动——基于非对称视角的理论与实证分析

随着全球经济一体化的加深,全球经济政策不确定性和人民币汇率对中国经济波动产生越来越大的影响。基于非对称影响的视角,构建一个融入全球经济政策不确定性、人民币汇率和经济波动的Mundell-Fleming模型,从理论上分析各要素的非对称影响机制。实证结果表明:短期内人民币升值对物价水平的抑制效应大于贬值对物价水平的促进效应,长期内人民币升值对经济增长的抑制效应大于贬值对经济增长的促进效应;此外,无论在短期还是长期,全球经济政策不确定性降低对物价水平和经济增长的促进作用都大于经济政策不确定性上升的抑制效应。以上结果均通过稳健性检验。因此,央行需要加强对汇率与全球经济政策不确定性对物价水平和经济增长的非对称效应的关注,以实现中国经济的平稳运行。

活蛹缫丝对家蚕综合经济性状的影响

【目的】探明活蛹缫丝对家蚕杂交组合及其亲本的健康性、茧丝质量、品种特性等综合经济性状的影响,为家蚕新材料的创制、筛选和固定以及突破性新蚕品种的定向培育提供理论依据。【方法】2019—2022年,以亲本造A和兰B为试验材料,连续4代对亲本进行活蛹缫丝试验并进行继代保育,同时随代制备杂交组合,以未进行活蛹缫丝的亲本和杂交组合为对照,调查龄期经过、四龄病小蚕数量、产茧量、全茧量、茧层量,观测茧形情况并分粒计数、缫丝茧个体重量和范围、切断、纇节、丝长、丝干重,调查母蛾产卵量、不良卵粒数及孵化情况。【结果】活蛹缫丝亲本(造A和兰B)饲育成绩中结茧率、虫蛹率和全茧量3项指标与对照差异显著(P<0.05),部分指标的提升与饲育季节相关。亲本的纇节与切断次数随活蛹缫丝不断深入而逐代明显减少,茧丝长度明显增长。活蛹缫丝导致亲本的产卵量减少,产附变差。产卵量变化在亲本间及亲本与对照间差异均显著(P<0.05)。杂交组合(造A×兰B)饲育指标中发育经过(五龄和全龄经过)、普茧率和结茧率与对照无显著差异,健蛹率较对照有一定增加,万头蚕产茧量较对照有不同程度减少;全茧量和茧层率因季节呈动态变化,总平均与对照基本持平;万头蚕产茧量和虫蛹率与对照差异显著(P<0.05)。杂交组合缫丝成绩中清洁和净度与对照无差别,上车茧率和解舒率随活蛹缫丝不断深入而逐代提高,茧丝长、茧丝纤度和万米吊糙呈动态变化,总平均与对照基本持平;茧丝长和解舒率2项指标与对照差异显著(P<0.05)。【结论】经活蛹缫丝处理亲本(造A和兰B)的纇节与切断次数随缫丝不断深入而逐代明显减少,茧丝长明显增长,普茧率和茧层率与对照基本持平。亲本结茧率和健蛹率较对照均有不同程度提高,结茧率造A和兰B春季分别提升3.69%和3.76%,秋季分别提升8.13%和1.70%;健蛹率造A和兰B春季分别提升4.55%和6.19%,秋季分别提升8.23%和0.98%。亲本经活蛹缫丝的杂交组合(造A×兰B)的普茧率、健蛹率、茧质成绩较对照均有不同程度提升,春季的普茧率、健蛹率、解舒率和丝长分别较对照提高3.73%、0.84%、3.00%和4.34%;秋季的普茧率与对照基本持平,而健蛹率、解舒率和丝长分别较对照提高0.67%、3.90%和1.62%。

中国环保考核制度调整与经济增长方式转变

经济增长与环境污染之间的关系,是经济增长方式最直接的体现之一。首先分析城市经济增长率与企业二氧化硫排放量之间的关系,发现其在2005年前后发生了根本性转变:在2005年以前,二者高度正相关,而在2005年以后,这种相关性明显减弱。机制分析发现:出现这一转变的直接原因是在2005年及以后随着经济增长率的提高,企业更多地使用清洁能源代替非清洁能源;更深层的原因则是在2005年以前地方官员选择放松环境规制促进经济增长,而2005年及以后此动机因官员环保考核制度调整而受到抑制。进一步分析发现,重污染行业占比不同的城市在2005年及以后选择了不同的“清洁化”增长战略。分析表明,2005年环保考核制度调整使中国的经济增长方式发生了根本性转变。

我国省际全要素生产率的对比分析研究

传统的按照索洛方法计算的广义技术进步率并不是本来意义上的全要素生产率。因此,本文重新构建全要素生产率的测度框架。一是明确定义全要素生产率,即一定时期内,按照现有的技术条件和产业结构比例,每投入一个单位的全部生产要素所能够带来的最终产出。二是利用有关统计数据估算省级层面有效资本存量,并分别构建各省份合适的计量模型估计其在不同发展阶段的要素产出弹性系数,进而测度各省份全要素生产率以及因全要素生产率变动所带来的经济增长率(简称全要素经济增长率)。实证分析结果表明,一般情况下,经济越发达省份的全要素生产率也越高,但是经济发达省份的全要素经济增长率并不一定高于经济欠发达省份。该结果不仅与常识相符,而且也合理解释了各省份生产效率与技术进步之间的联系与区别,验证了本文所提出的测度框架及方法的可行性。

稳中求进以进促稳先立后破——当前中国经济形势分析与2024年展望

“坚持稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破”是2023年中央经济工作会议上提出的宏观治理新思路,为中国经济政策调整指明了新方向。中国经济增速近些年持续低于潜在增速,在疫情前就已经形成经济增速持续下滑的态势。逆转这一态势,实现高质量发展刻不容缓。中国经济发展潜力仍然巨大,为了充分释放这些潜力,宏观经济政策应当积极对冲规范治理政策带来的收缩效应,2024年需重点着力于房地产、地方债、民营经济、科技创新、消费信心、城镇化、国际环境七大方面。2024年要关注房地产风险扩大、民营企业信心不足、西方大国选举引致的不确定性上升三方面的风险。若这三大风险能妥善应对,2024年中国经济有望实现5%左右的增长。

国有大型油气企业新能源发电项目经济评价探讨

国有大型油气企业基于减排降碳和可持续健康发展考量,积极探索新能源发电业务,投资项目经济评价方法和参数,成为影响新能源发电业务投资决策和高质量发展的决定性因素。基于经济评价基本原理,根据新能源发电项目技术经济特征,构建新能源发电项目经济评价方法和参数体系。折现现金流法仍然是新能源发电项目经济评价的主要方法,内部收益率和平准化度电成本是衡量项目盈利能力的重要指标。不同类型新能源发电项目经济评价方法具有较高的一致性,但应在投资构成、成本费用估算、收入与税金估算等方面体现差异,重点在营业收入估算中体现项目真正价值。在规制性配置储能要求以及储能收益政策有待落实的情况下,新能源发电项目效益有待提高,建议现阶段适当降低投资回报要求,尤其是出于市场拓展和协同发展目的的战略性新能源发电项目。项目电价和有效利用小时数对新能源发电项目的影响至关重要,应视情况合理选取参数。风光气电融合项目应分业务估算成本。国有大型油气企业应积极开展宏观配套政策和商业模式创新研究,以支撑新能源发电业务的高质量发展。

基于试验数据的人工用材林最优轮伐期确定的研究进展

虽然用材林轮伐期研究长期受到国内外众多学者的关注,但有关轮伐期的内涵、轮伐期确定的标准、轮伐期模型选择以及相关变量对轮伐期的影响等方面,依然是众说纷纭,无法为构建用材林提质增效培育模式提供坚实的理论基础。本文通过梳理国内外有关轮伐期确定方面的研究成果,并以我国杉木用材林试验数据作为支撑,意在展示不同轮伐期确定准则、方法和相关影响因素对轮伐期确定的作用机理和过程,并对未来轮伐期的研究方向进行了展望。

Optimized nitrogen application for maximizing yield and minimizing nitrogen loss in film mulching spring maize production on the Loess Plateau,China

Excessive use of N fertilizers(driven by high-yield goals)and its consequent environmental problems are becoming increasingly acute in agricultural systems.A 2-year field experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of three N application methods(application of solid granular urea once(OF)or twice(TF),application of solid granular urea mixed with controlled-release urea once(MF),and six N rates(0,60,120,180,240,and 300 kg N ha^(-1))on maize yield,economic benefits,N use efficiency,and soil N balance in the maize(Zea mays L.)film mulching system on the Loess Plateau,China.The grain yield and economic return of maize were significantly affected by the N rate and application method.Compared with the OF treatment,the MF treatment not only increased the maize yield(increased by 9.0-16.7%)but also improved the economic return(increased by 10.9-25.8%).The agronomic N use efficiency(NAE),N partial factor productivity(NPFP)and recovery N efficiency(NRE)were significantly improved by 19.3-66.7,9.0-16.7 and 40.2-71.5%,respectively,compared with the OF treatment.The economic optimal N rate(EONR)of the OF,TF,and MF was 145.6,147.2,and 144.9 kg ha^(-1) in 2019,and 206.4,186.4,and 146.0 kg ha^(-1) in 2020,respectively.The apparent soil N loss at EONR of the OF,TF,and MF were 97.1-100.5,78.5-79.3,and 50.5-68.1 kg ha^(-1),respectively.These results support MF as a one-time N application method for delivering high yields and economic benefits,with low N input requirements within film mulching spring maize system on the Loess Plateau.

行距和播种量对高寒区老芒麦生长和产草量的影响及综合分析

【目的】为探讨不同行距和播种量对高寒区老芒麦饲草产量的影响,筛选出适宜青藏高原地区老芒麦饲草生产的最佳种植行距和播种量,并揭示种植行距和播种量对老芒麦饲草产量的影响过程及其路径系数,从而为青藏高原地区饲草高效生产提供数据支撑。【方法】以青牧1号老芒麦(Elymus sibiricus cv.Qingmu No.1)和青牧2号老芒麦(Elymus sibiricus cv.Qingmu No.2)为材料,采用双因素裂区试验设计,主因素为3个行距,分别为R1:15 cm、R2:30 cm、R3:45 cm;副因素为3个播种量,分别为S1:15.0 kg·hm^(-2)、S2:22.5 kg·hm^(-2)、S3:30.0 kg·hm^(-2)。9个处理,3次重复,各品种27个小区,共54个小区,小区面积15m^(2)(3 m×5 m),采用随机区组排列。大田试验于2022—2023年在青海省共和县开展。分析不同行距和播种量处理对老芒麦农艺性状、饲草产量及经济效益的影响,并采用结构方程模型探讨行距和播种量对老芒麦饲草产量的影响过程及其路径系数。【结果】行距和播种量均对茎粗、生殖枝数、分蘖数、茎叶比和饲草产量有极显著影响。在同一行距下,青牧1号和青牧2号的株高和茎粗随播种量的增加而降低,分蘖数和生殖枝数随播种量的增加呈先增后降的变化趋势;在同一播种量下,青牧1号和青牧2号的株高、茎粗、茎叶比和干鲜比随行距的增加而增加,分蘖数和生殖枝数随行距的增加而降低。在行距15 cm、播种量22.5 kg·hm^(-2)时,青牧1号和青牧2号的饲草产量及经济效益均最大,青牧1号饲草产量为12668.16 kg·hm^(-2),经济效益为13731.97元/hm^(2);青牧2号饲草产量为12180.94 kg·hm^(-2),经济效益为13064.03元/hm^(2)。皮尔森相关性分析表明饲草产量与分蘖数和生殖枝数显著正相关。结构方程模型表明,行距和播种量主要通过影响老芒麦的分蘖来影响饲草产量。【结论】TOPSIS-多准则决策模型分析表明,行距15 cm,播种量22.5kg·hm^(-2)不但可显著提高饲草产量,还可获取最高经济效益,是适宜于研究区及类似高寒区黑钙土上老芒麦饲草生产的最佳种植行距和播种量。