With the increasing interactions between natural gas systems(NGS)and power systems,component failures in one system may propagate to the other one,threatening reliable operation of the whole system.Due to neglect of s...With the increasing interactions between natural gas systems(NGS)and power systems,component failures in one system may propagate to the other one,threatening reliable operation of the whole system.Due to neglect of such cross-sectorial failure propagation in integrated electricity-gas systems(IEGSs),traditional economy-oriented reserve expansion models may lead to unreasonable planning results.In order to address this,an innovative reserve expansion model is proposed to determine the allocation of energy production components through the harmonization between costs and reliability.First,novel multifactor-influenced reliability indices are defined con-sidering synthetic effects of multiple uncertainties,including failure propagation,load uncertainties and generation failures.In reliability index formulation,contribution of failure propagation on system reliability is analytically expressed.To avoid high computational complexity,the fuzzy set theory is combined with conventional methods,e.g.,Monte-Carlo simulation technique to reduce numerous contingency states.Sampled contingency states are aggregated into several clusters represented by a fuzzy number.To effectively solve the planning model,a decomposition approach is introduced and applied to decompose the original problem into a master problem and two correlated reliability sub-problems.Numerical studies show the proposed model can plan reasonable reserves to guarantee reliability levels of IEGSs considering failure propagation.展开更多
Integrated power-gas systems(IPGSs)make the power system and natural gas system(NGS)as a whole,and strengthen interdependence between the two systems.Due to bidirectional energy conversion in IPGS,a disturbance may tu...Integrated power-gas systems(IPGSs)make the power system and natural gas system(NGS)as a whole,and strengthen interdependence between the two systems.Due to bidirectional energy conversion in IPGS,a disturbance may turn into a catastrophic outage.Meanwhile,increasing proportion of renewable energy brings challenges to reliability of IPGS.Moreover,partial failure or degradation of system performance leads IPGS operate at multiple performance levels.Therefore,this paper proposes a reliability assessment model of IPGSs which represents multiple performance of components and considers cascading effects,as well as renewable energy uncertainty.First,a framework of IPGS reliability assessment is proposed:multistate models for main elements in the IPGS are represented.Especially a gas-power-generation calculation operator and a power-to-gas calculation operator are utilized to bi-directionally convert a multi-state model between NGS and power systems.Furthermore,nodal reliability indices for IPGS are given to display impacts of cascading effects and renewable energy uncertainty on reliabilities of IPGSs.Numerical results on IPGS test system demonstrate the proposed methods.展开更多
An integrated energy system (IES) is a regional energy system incorporating distributed multi-energy systems to serve various energy demands such as electricity, heating, cooling, and gas. The reliability analysis pla...An integrated energy system (IES) is a regional energy system incorporating distributed multi-energy systems to serve various energy demands such as electricity, heating, cooling, and gas. The reliability analysis plays a key role in guaranteeing the safety and adequacy of an IES. This paper aims to build a capacity reliability model of an IES. The multi-energy correlation in the IES can generate the dependent capacity outage states, which is the distinguished reliability feature of an IES from a generation system. To address this issue, this paper presents a novel analytical method to model the dependent multi-energy capacity outage states and their joint outage probabilities of an IES for its reliability assessment. To model the dependent multi-energy capacity outage states, a new multi-dimensional matrix method is presented in the capacity outage probability table (COPT) model of the generation system. Furthermore, a customized multi-dimensional discrete convolution algorithm is proposed to compute the reliability model, and the adequacy indices are calculated in an accurate and efficient way. Case studies demonstrate the correctness and efficiency of the proposed method. The capacity value of multi-energy conversion facilities is also quantified by the proposed method.展开更多
With the growing interdependence between the electricity system and the natural gas system,the operation uncertainties in either subsystem,such as wind fluctuations or component failures,could have a magnified impact ...With the growing interdependence between the electricity system and the natural gas system,the operation uncertainties in either subsystem,such as wind fluctuations or component failures,could have a magnified impact on the reliability of the whole system due to energy interactions.A joint reserve scheduling model considering the cross-sectorial impacts of operation uncertainties is essential but still insufficient to guarantee the reliable operation of the integrated electricity and natural gas system(IEGS).Therefore,this paper proposes a day-ahead security-constrained unit commitment(SCUC)model for the IEGS to schedule the operation and reserve simultaneously considering reliability requirements.Firstly,the multi-state models for generating units and gas wells are established.Based on the multi-state models,the expected unserved energy cost(EUEC)and the expected wind curtailment cost(EWC)criteria are proposed based on probabilistic methods considering wind fluctuation and random failures of components in IEGS.Furthermore,the EUEC and EWC criteria are incorporated into the day-ahead SCUC model,which is nonconvex and mathematically reformulated into a solvable mixed-integer second-order cone programming(MISOCP)problem.The proposed model is validated using an IEEE 30-bus system and Belgium 20-node natural gas system.Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed model can effectively schedule the energy reserve to guarantee the reliable operation of the IEGS considering the multiple uncertainties in different subsystems and the cross-sectorial failure propagation.展开更多
综合需求响应(integrated demand response,IDR)是挖掘综合能源系统(integrated energy system,IES)负荷侧调节潜力的主要手段。然而,IDR用户的用能行为具有随机性、模糊性相耦合的混合不确定性特征,由此产生的IDR不确定性不仅会给调度...综合需求响应(integrated demand response,IDR)是挖掘综合能源系统(integrated energy system,IES)负荷侧调节潜力的主要手段。然而,IDR用户的用能行为具有随机性、模糊性相耦合的混合不确定性特征,由此产生的IDR不确定性不仅会给调度策略的制定带来挑战,而且会对系统的可靠性产生影响,甚至可能引起负荷断供。针对上述问题,首先提出了基于改进PMV-PPD(predicted mean vote-predicted percentage of dissatisfied)指标的用户参与意愿评估模型;其次,基于云模型理论,建立了考虑混合不确定性的价格型IDR模型;在此基础上,综合考虑各类能源响应量边界和价格弹性系数等因素的不确定性,提出了IES优化调度策略。算例结果表明所提的IES优化调度策略可以更好地应对IDR不确定性带来的负荷波动,有效提升系统可靠性。展开更多
基金the China NSFC under Grant 71871200National Natural Science Foundation China and Joint Programming Initiative Urban Europe Call(NSFC-JPI UE)under grant 71961137004。
文摘With the increasing interactions between natural gas systems(NGS)and power systems,component failures in one system may propagate to the other one,threatening reliable operation of the whole system.Due to neglect of such cross-sectorial failure propagation in integrated electricity-gas systems(IEGSs),traditional economy-oriented reserve expansion models may lead to unreasonable planning results.In order to address this,an innovative reserve expansion model is proposed to determine the allocation of energy production components through the harmonization between costs and reliability.First,novel multifactor-influenced reliability indices are defined con-sidering synthetic effects of multiple uncertainties,including failure propagation,load uncertainties and generation failures.In reliability index formulation,contribution of failure propagation on system reliability is analytically expressed.To avoid high computational complexity,the fuzzy set theory is combined with conventional methods,e.g.,Monte-Carlo simulation technique to reduce numerous contingency states.Sampled contingency states are aggregated into several clusters represented by a fuzzy number.To effectively solve the planning model,a decomposition approach is introduced and applied to decompose the original problem into a master problem and two correlated reliability sub-problems.Numerical studies show the proposed model can plan reasonable reserves to guarantee reliability levels of IEGSs considering failure propagation.
基金supported in part by the Key Projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 51936003。
文摘Integrated power-gas systems(IPGSs)make the power system and natural gas system(NGS)as a whole,and strengthen interdependence between the two systems.Due to bidirectional energy conversion in IPGS,a disturbance may turn into a catastrophic outage.Meanwhile,increasing proportion of renewable energy brings challenges to reliability of IPGS.Moreover,partial failure or degradation of system performance leads IPGS operate at multiple performance levels.Therefore,this paper proposes a reliability assessment model of IPGSs which represents multiple performance of components and considers cascading effects,as well as renewable energy uncertainty.First,a framework of IPGS reliability assessment is proposed:multistate models for main elements in the IPGS are represented.Especially a gas-power-generation calculation operator and a power-to-gas calculation operator are utilized to bi-directionally convert a multi-state model between NGS and power systems.Furthermore,nodal reliability indices for IPGS are given to display impacts of cascading effects and renewable energy uncertainty on reliabilities of IPGSs.Numerical results on IPGS test system demonstrate the proposed methods.
基金This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51637008)the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2016YFB0901900).
文摘An integrated energy system (IES) is a regional energy system incorporating distributed multi-energy systems to serve various energy demands such as electricity, heating, cooling, and gas. The reliability analysis plays a key role in guaranteeing the safety and adequacy of an IES. This paper aims to build a capacity reliability model of an IES. The multi-energy correlation in the IES can generate the dependent capacity outage states, which is the distinguished reliability feature of an IES from a generation system. To address this issue, this paper presents a novel analytical method to model the dependent multi-energy capacity outage states and their joint outage probabilities of an IES for its reliability assessment. To model the dependent multi-energy capacity outage states, a new multi-dimensional matrix method is presented in the capacity outage probability table (COPT) model of the generation system. Furthermore, a customized multi-dimensional discrete convolution algorithm is proposed to compute the reliability model, and the adequacy indices are calculated in an accurate and efficient way. Case studies demonstrate the correctness and efficiency of the proposed method. The capacity value of multi-energy conversion facilities is also quantified by the proposed method.
基金supported in part by Science&Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China(No.5100-202199285A-0-0-00)in part by the National Natural Science Foundation China and Joint Programming Initiative Urban Europe Call(NSFC-JPI UE)(No.71961137004).
文摘With the growing interdependence between the electricity system and the natural gas system,the operation uncertainties in either subsystem,such as wind fluctuations or component failures,could have a magnified impact on the reliability of the whole system due to energy interactions.A joint reserve scheduling model considering the cross-sectorial impacts of operation uncertainties is essential but still insufficient to guarantee the reliable operation of the integrated electricity and natural gas system(IEGS).Therefore,this paper proposes a day-ahead security-constrained unit commitment(SCUC)model for the IEGS to schedule the operation and reserve simultaneously considering reliability requirements.Firstly,the multi-state models for generating units and gas wells are established.Based on the multi-state models,the expected unserved energy cost(EUEC)and the expected wind curtailment cost(EWC)criteria are proposed based on probabilistic methods considering wind fluctuation and random failures of components in IEGS.Furthermore,the EUEC and EWC criteria are incorporated into the day-ahead SCUC model,which is nonconvex and mathematically reformulated into a solvable mixed-integer second-order cone programming(MISOCP)problem.The proposed model is validated using an IEEE 30-bus system and Belgium 20-node natural gas system.Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed model can effectively schedule the energy reserve to guarantee the reliable operation of the IEGS considering the multiple uncertainties in different subsystems and the cross-sectorial failure propagation.
文摘综合需求响应(integrated demand response,IDR)是挖掘综合能源系统(integrated energy system,IES)负荷侧调节潜力的主要手段。然而,IDR用户的用能行为具有随机性、模糊性相耦合的混合不确定性特征,由此产生的IDR不确定性不仅会给调度策略的制定带来挑战,而且会对系统的可靠性产生影响,甚至可能引起负荷断供。针对上述问题,首先提出了基于改进PMV-PPD(predicted mean vote-predicted percentage of dissatisfied)指标的用户参与意愿评估模型;其次,基于云模型理论,建立了考虑混合不确定性的价格型IDR模型;在此基础上,综合考虑各类能源响应量边界和价格弹性系数等因素的不确定性,提出了IES优化调度策略。算例结果表明所提的IES优化调度策略可以更好地应对IDR不确定性带来的负荷波动,有效提升系统可靠性。