Risk measurement of international oil and gas projects based on the Value at Risk method

International oil and gas projects feature high capital-intensity, high risks and contract diversity. Therefore, in order to help decision makers make more reasonable decisions under uncertainty, it is necessary to measure the risks of international oil and gas projects. For this purpose, this paper constructs a probabilistic model that is based on the traditional economic evaluation model, and introduces value at risk(VaR) which is a valuable risk measure tool in finance, and applies Va R to measure the risks of royalty contracts, production share contracts and service contracts of an international oil and gas project. Besides, this paper compares the influences of different risk factors on the net present value(NPV) of the project by using the simulation results. The results indicate:(1) risks have great impacts on the project's NPV, therefore, if risks are overlooked, the decision may be wrong.(2) A simulation method is applied to simulate the stochastic distribution of risk factors in the probabilistic model. Therefore, the probability is related to the project's NPV, overcoming the inherent limitation of the traditional economic evaluation method.(3) VaR is a straightforward risk measure tool, and can be applied to evaluate the risks of international oil and gas projects. It is helpful for decision making.

Implementation of positive-operator-value measurements for single spin qubit via Heisenberg model

This paper shows that a proposal for implementing all possible two-operator positive-operator-value measurements of single spin qubit can be obtained via introducing another spin qubit as ancilla. The realization process is accomplished from the free evolution of the Heisenberg XX model by considering nearest-neighbour spin interaction. A controlled- NOT gate, which is a significant operator for this scheme is also constructed and the generalisation to multiple-operator is considered finally.

Measurement of International Competitiveness of Clothing Industry under the Background of Value Chain Reconstruction

Relying on cheap labor cost advantage,China is locked in the low-end processing link of the global value chain and obtains a lower profit share.With the deepening of the international division of labor,changes in the distribution of national interests and the spread of anti-globalization in some developed countries,the global value chain is undergoing a new round of large-scale reconstruction and emerging economies are trying to penetrate and extend to the high end of the global value chain.Based on the theory of industrial upgrading and global value chain,this paper focuses on the current development of Chinese apparel industry,the mechanism,development and problems of global value chain reconstruction,analyzes the relevant elements in the apparel industry value chain reconstruction,and proposes the application of data envelopment analysis(DEA)competitiveness model in the value chain reconstruction of apparel enterprises.We use the CCR(C2R)model to simulate the improvement of production efficiency.Finally,we put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the value chain reconstruction from the perspective of improving product competitiveness.

Prognostic Value of Dynamic Tissue Perfusion Measurements in Transplanted Kidneys

Background: The dynamic tissue perfusion measurement in renal transplants has demonstrated its potential to correlate microvascular perfusion changes with histologic changes in the renal cortex [1]. It has shown in cross sectional studies that the cortical perfusion depends on the time elapsed after transplantation [2,3], but has not yet been applied as a prognostic marker. Therefore, we compared in a prospective 6-year study the initial perfusion measurements with the outcome of the graft function. Method: In 78 renal graft recipients, standardized color Doppler sonographic videos were recorded and cortical perfusion was measured in well-defined regions of interest with the PixelFlux-software. Results: In the beginning of the study, prospectively failing grafts (requiring dialysis) had a significantly lower cortical perfusion compared to grafts with preserved function (0.40 vs. 0.57 cm/s average perfusion intensity of the entire cortex). The interval between perfusion measurement and graft failure was 2.17 years (0 - 6 years). Conclusion: Thus, dynamic tissue perfusion measurement may have a role in the prospective evaluation of renal transplant function. Summary: In 78 transplant recipients, we could demonstrate the prognostic potential of the dynamic color Doppler sonographic perfusion measurement of renal transplants. Perfusion was significantly diminished in those grafts that failed later on within a 6-year period. Thus, cortical perfusion measurement might be valuable as a non-invasive prospective method which reflects the state of the cortical microvasculature.

Limits of Level 3 Fair Value Measurement： Based on Conceptual Framework

The IASB stated that in the review of the conceptual framework, if measurement uncertainty is very high, a measurement basis different from fair value may provide more appropriate information. Level 3 fair value measurements are inappropriate for areas （called ＂Level 4＂ by the author） in which models are not formulated and that have material uncertainty in measurement. The purpose of this paper is to elucidate ＂measurement uncertainty＂, which impacts ＂faithful representation＂ in fair value measurement, from the perspective of ＂verifiability＂. To do so, it will employ a conceptual examination of the limits of Level 3 fair value measurement based on IFRS 13 （Fair Value Measurement）. While taking into consideration recent discussions on reviewing conceptual framework, the author will reorganize the conceptual categories of verifiability （i.e., clarification of the ＂reasonable verifiability＂ categories） to underpin the fact that material uncertainties in measurement have obstructed constructing faithful representation. In addition, the author will discuss the problem that the dichotomy of direct and indirect found in IASB is not accurate enough to fully understand the concept of verifiability. In this context, the author will also suggest that the concept of verifiability, reorganized through ＂reasonable verifiability＂, can satisfy the requirements for constructing faithful representation.

Effect of Fair Value Measurement on Earnings Management of Chinese Real Estate Listed Companies

since the fair value has been used,it has always been paid more attention to,after the financial crisis,it has caused widespread denunciation of the academic session.In the new accounting standards issued in 2014,the attention of fair value has always been very high,which can reflect the influence of enterprises on earnings management through the measurement of fair value.By describing the application of fair value under the new criteria to pave the way for the following description.The back illustrates the impact of fair value on earnings management under the new guidelines.At the end of the paper,some policies and constructive suggestions are put forward to improve earnings management in Chinese enterprises.

基于非使用价值评估的绿色基础设施发展模式研究——以南京幕燕森林公园为例

文章预设生态修复和文化开发两种发展模式,采用条件价值问卷对南京幕燕森林公园的非使用价值进行评估,并进行威尔科克森(Wilcoxon)有效性检验与皮尔逊(Pearson)影响因子相关性分析。结果表明:(1)生态修复模式下,2021年幕燕森林公园的非使用价值为4.07亿元,显著高于文化开发模式下的非使用价值总量;(2)实验收集数据不存在嵌入效应,数据具有有效性;(3)受访者的交通便利、文化景观、森林园路状况满意度等自变量与因变量支付意愿(WTP)存在不同程度的显著相关性,而受访者受教育程度、出行时长、交通工具与WTP存在极显著负相关性。最终综合分析实验数据,提出未来幕燕森林公园应遵循的生态修复发展模式以及具体的规划建议。

现代产业链韧性评价及提升路径

国际变局加剧产业链发展风险,产业链韧性是建设现代化产业体系和提升产业链安全的重要基础。理解产业链韧性的内涵及影响因素是建立产业链韧性理论分析的基础,构建包括产业链基础能力、产业链抵御能力、产业链链条控制力和产业链创新能力在内的多维评价指标体系,通过熵值法对产业链韧性水平进行测度评价,并与美国、日本、印度等国家进行国际比较。研究发现,支撑中国产业链韧性的主要因素是包括基础设施、劳动力供给在内的产业链基础能力。与发达国家相比,产业链抵御能力和产业链创新能力对产业链韧性提升的贡献相对较低;近年来中国产业链韧性水平总体呈现上升趋势,但是增速放缓。因此,应该加快关键核心技术攻关的产业链创新能力,提升产业链治理能力,积极开展高水平对外开放和推动产业链数字化转型,成为提升中国产业链韧性的主要政策主张。

产权理论视角下传统村落生态产品价值实现的测度与优化路径——以湖南四个典型传统村落为例

传统村落作为人与自然和谐相处的典范,蕴含着丰富的生态产品,如何在乡村生态文明的建设下,把握传统村落生态产品价值实现状况,助推传统村落生态产品价值的实现尤为重要。本研究通过问卷调查、数据分析、实地调查法,基于产权理论划分传统村落生态产品类型,并构建传统村落生态产品价值实现指标体系,同时以湖南四个典型传统村落为例,开展传统村落生态产品价值实现的测度与优化路径研究。结果表明:产权理论视角下传统村落生态产品分为私人生态产品、准公共生态产品和公共生态产品三类,包含生态物质产品、生态文化服务、生态调节服务三要素;传统村落生态产品价值实现的测度差异度低,整体价值实现水平一般,得分在57.08~60.85之间,其中横岭村得分最高,芋头村得分最低。根据价值实现的测度结果与实地调研情况,针对性地提出了旅游开发型与农业主导型传统村落的优化路径,以此助推传统村落生态产品价值实现,促进传统村落的活化与可持续发展。

我国中小企业全球价值链嵌入分析——基于RCEP成员国的比较分析

RCEP协定对中小企业作用于区域经济发展的意义给予充分肯定,并就完善成员国中小企业市场准入、加强中小企业全球价值链参与进行合作。本文从中小企业全球价值链嵌入率、中小企业全球价值链嵌入行业分布及中小企业全球价值链嵌入模式和地位等角度对中国与RCEP各成员国中小企业全球价值链(GVC)嵌入现状进行比较分析。研究发现:融资约束及自主创新、新技术使用方面的不足导致我国中小企业全球价值链嵌入率较低;政府对中小企业的政策支持差异导致我国与发达成员国中小企业全球价值链嵌入存在国家之间、行业之间的差距;全球价值链重构背景下我国中小企业全球价值链嵌入行业和方式造成中小企业不仅面临价值链攀升的难题,也面临被排除在全球价值链之外的局面。为此,我国中小企业应注重自身学习能力、创新能力、数字化能力等GVC参与能力建设,在更高水平对外开放背景下及政府相关政策措施和完善的服务体系支持下,抓住RCEP协定带来的机遇,积极完善全球价值链参与,在分享RCEP协定红利的同时促进区域内经济发展。

流体在微小管径中的流量检测方法研究

随着国内半导体等精密制造业的发展,对于微小管径的计量需求不断增加。为弥补国内在微小管径的流量计量方面的不足,提出一种与温度无关的超声波测量微小管径的液体流量计设计方法。首先,阐述了超声波测量流量的原理,详细解释了基于超声信号特征点计算飞行时间的方法,然后根据测量精度要求保证了信号时序的同步,通过以STM32控制器为核心的样机实现了流量数据的实时测量,最后,搭建测量实验平台,验证该方法的有效性。以DN4管道进行液体流量检测实验,实验结果表明流量范围为5~50 mL/min时,测量相对误差均在2.0%以内,流量范围为50~800 mL/min时,测量相对误差均在1.5%以内,满足工业生产要求,具有较好的实用性。

置换蒸煮终点Kappa值软测量的设计与实现

针对纸浆置换蒸煮过程中数据采集困难、缺乏工艺终点Kappa值在线测量仪表的现实问题,本课题分别用RPLSR、RBF和RPLSR-RBF 3种算法建立了Kappa值软测量模型,并用MATLAB对建立的模型进行了仿真分析。结果表明,相比于使用单一RPLSR或RBF算法建立的模型,RPLSR-RBF算法建立的软测量模型精度较高、相对误差较小。此外,本课题设计得到了Kappa值在线软测量系统实现框图和工作流程图。

论齿轮样板

齿轮样板是齿轮参数量值的标准实物载体,用于将齿轮国家测量标准所复现的量值传递到各级齿轮测量仪器上,从而实现齿轮测量的准确性和一致性,保证齿轮产品质量。全面概述了齿轮样板起源及其发展历程;详细论述了齿轮样板的种类、结构及特点、齿轮样板的测量技术及装置、齿轮样板的国际比对、未来的发展与展望。齿轮样板迄今已历经九十多年发展,其种类在不断丰富、尺度不断延伸、复杂度不断简化,作为一种“有形”的实物量具,目前仍不可替代。未来随着“无形”的虚拟仿真测量技术发展,对“有形”实物样板的依赖将可以减弱,“无形”的技术将可能成为量值传递的新模式。

里德堡原子电场传感器的自校准性解析及测量不确定度评定

传统电场传感器需要标准场或更高准确度等级的传感器进行校准,而基于原子固有能级结构和光谱特征的里德堡原子电场测量可溯源至基本物理常数,量子传感自带校准功能。该文阐述了里德堡原子与外场相互作用的量子相干效应,说明了里德堡原子传感器的电场测量原理,并解析了其自校准性。基于所构建的针对低频电场的里德堡原子传感测量系统,分析了误差来源,定义和计算了各种不确定度分量,得到合成相对标准不确定度为3.885%;保守考虑,在大于或等于95.45%的包含概率下得到扩展不确定度为7.77%。在此过程中,明确了不确定度的主要影响因素并提出了减小其影响的建议。最后给出传感系统实测电磁诱导透明(EIT)光谱频移量与电场强度之间的拟合函数,拟合确定系数达到0.9969,验证了所构建的低频电场量子测量系统的准确性。

嫦娥4/5号月球探测器VLBI观测数据质量分析

在中国探月工程(China’s Lunar Exploration Program,CLEP)中,甚长基线干涉测量技术(very long baseline interferometry,VLBI)具有重要作用。为获得月球探测器的准确定位、实现精确的测定轨功能并以此在探测器飞行过程中完成轨道修正,需要利用VLBI测站对月球探测器进行实时观测。首先以均值(arithmetic mean,AM)以及标准差(standard deviation,STD)作为主要的精度指标,对来源于上海天文台的嫦娥4号探测器、中继星以及嫦娥5号探测器的VLBI实测数据进行总观测时段的数据稳定性分析,并基于嫦娥4号探测器同时段S、X双频段观测,着重进行该探测器不同频率各项数据的质量分析;然后对探测器各工作时段分别进行时延、时延率测量形式误差以及残差分析,了解各时段探测器运动情况与数据变化的相关性。结果表明,3类探测器中,嫦娥4号的实测精度最高,达到1 ns量级;嫦娥5号的观测稳定性优于其他两类探测器;不同地面站对探测器的观测精度有所差异,并且在探测器不同的工作时段,实测数据表现出不同特征。

基于低空视觉的直升机旋翼轴心轨迹测量法

为满足直升机飞行状态旋翼轴心轨迹测量需求,提出了一种基于低空双目视觉的轴心轨迹测量方法。首先,针对高速旋转体的小量测量,基于立体视觉测量原理设计构建了以无人机为低空移动平台的旋翼轴心轨迹视觉测量系统。其次,针对动-动测量环境条件,提出了地面标定与空中动态实时标定联合的测量系统标定方法。然后,基于空间几何关系,论述了旋翼轴心静态估计与动态轨迹测量方法;最后,进行了测量系统地面精度验证试验与直升机地面开车状态的旋翼轴心轨迹测量试验。试验结果表明,该方法准确可靠,点间距离精度优于1‰,可实现轴心轨迹的非接触精确测量,还可推广应用于其他动态小量测量任务。

基于实测数据的高炉煤气单位热值含碳量推荐值的修正方法

钢铁工业碳排放核算方法依据GB/T 32151.5-2015《温室气体排放核算与报告要求第5部分:钢铁生产企业》所提供的排放因子法,单位热值含碳量(C_(C))作为表征可燃物质在单位热值下碳元素含量的指标,是排放因子法计算碳排放量的重要影响因子。前人对于钢铁工业碳排放研究主要侧重于各种核算方法之间的差异性,而对于单位热值含碳量推荐值准确性鲜有研究。为研究可燃物质单位热值含碳量对于碳排放计算的影响,选择钢铁工业炼铁工序副产气体高炉煤气作为研究对象,基于某钢厂高炉煤气各项指标实测数据,计算得出不同组分(CO和CO_(2))含量下高炉煤气C_(C)实测值,分析不同组分含量高炉煤气低位发热量实测值、全碳组分C_(C)实测值、燃烧过程C_(C)实测值等实测参数变化。结合排放因子法广泛应用的现状,基于C_(C)实测值波动情况,提出3种将C_(C)推荐值修正为燃烧过程C_(C)的方法,在各自适用条件修正值与实测值的偏差均小于5%;最后,用该钢厂高炉炼铁工序2021年有关统计数据,针对高炉煤气C_(C)推荐值修正前后高炉本体碳排放计算结果进行对比分析,修正前高炉本体每吨铁的碳排放量-0.19 t,修正后高炉本体每吨铁的碳排放量0.415 t,修正结果与真实碳排放情况较吻合。研究结果表明,在计算钢铁工业高炉本体二氧化碳排放时,使用实测均值、修正系数w(CO)[w(CO)+w(CO_(2))]和w(CO)—C_(com)拟合曲线修正高炉煤气单位热值含碳量,计算结果与实际相符。

基层公务员公共价值冲突测量量表的开发与检验

基层公务员作为街头场域公共价值的实现者、分配者与诠释者,不可避免因公共价值选择引发的公共价值冲突而深陷道德困境的泥潭。要实现公共价值冲突的有效治理,前提是精准测量基层公务员感知到的公共价值冲突,遗憾的是目前尚未形成一套有效的测量量表。为此,本文基于47名基层公务员的深度访谈资料,运用内容分析法提炼基层公务员公共价值冲突的内容维度及初始题项,并经项目分析及信效度检验剔除相关度较低的题项后,最终开发出由3个维度、13个题项组成的正式测量量表。在此基础上,通过验证性因子分析验证了此量表的结构效度,并将任务绩效作为关联校标,验证了此量表的预测有效性。本文为学界提供了测量公共价值冲突的有效方式,为进一步探究该构念的前因后果提供了工具基础,从而有利于拓展公共价值失灵、价值冲突治理等理论的发展空间。

基于改进三维生态足迹模型的珠江—西江经济带生态补偿价值测度及分区研究

生态补偿机制构建难点在于厘清补偿主客体、评估补偿优先时序及精准测算补偿标准,构建科学有效的生态补偿机制有助于流域上下游生态保护责任合理分配。本文以珠江—西江经济带地级市为研究单元,将改进三维生态足迹模型与生态系统服务价值估算相结合,测度2005—2020年各市生态补偿价值与标准,引入生态补偿优先级,最终划定优先支付、潜力支付、平衡、潜力受偿及优先受偿5类分区。结果表明:1)2020年经济带生态补偿赤字为288.09亿元,广州支付价值最高为185.14亿元,人均生态补偿标准为987.92元,仅崇左获生态补偿,受偿价值为0.68亿元,人均受偿标准为32.62元。2)广州、佛山与南宁长期为优先支付区;崇左长期为优先受偿区;肇庆、柳州及百色近年转为潜力支付区;来宾、贵港、梧州与云浮为平衡区;经济带优先受偿区与潜力受偿区逐步转为优先支付区、潜力支付区与平衡区。3)广州、佛山及南宁应率先支付生态补偿平衡经济带区际生态保护责任,协调区际生态保护共治关系;应优先给予崇左生态补偿以实现生态保护受益,获得生态环境治理的经济支持。