Estimation of the embodied carbon in China's wood products trade using input–output methodology

This study calculates the embodied carbon in imports,exports,net exports,and the processing trade of China's wood product sector between 2001 and 2016 using a non-competitive input-output(I-O)model.The results demonstrate that embodied carbon showed a decreasing trend between 2001 and 2016.Embodied carbon was lowest in wood furniture imports and highest in paper and paperboard imports.The embodied carbon in sawnwood and veneer sheet exports was the lowest and paper and paperboard exports was the highest.The embodied carbon in the processing trade of paper and paperboard was the highest.To reduce the embodied carbon in China's wood products,the government should promote technological transformation and upgrading and encourage the implementation of green technology innovation.

Accounting and Responsibility Allocation on Carbon Emissions Embodied in International Trade

This paper calculated the scale of carbon emissions embodied in the import and export of the world＇s major countries based on input-output principles and international trade data, as well as data on various countries＇carbon emissions in 2005 from domestic consumption and emissions embodied in trade. The results illustrate that, because of international trade, consumers in developed countries should bear the responsibility for a large portion of CO2 emissions. The researchers separated the net transfer balance of embodied emissions in international trade according to four different effects： size effect, exchange rate effect, structural effect, and pure technical effect, all of which favor the sharing of responsibilities between producers and consumers.

MRIO model-based study on water nitrogen pollution transfer embodied in international trade

This study uses the global pollutant emission databases and global input-output model in 2015 to calculate the impact of international trade on global water nitrogen emission patterns,based on considering the total amount of pollutant transfer and pollutant emission intensity of trade flows The main conclusions are as follows:(1) There are always a large amount of water nitrogen emissions transferring from developed economies to developing economies embodied in their bilateral trade activities.Small amount of transfers are of some areas with similar endowments of agricultural resources or long distances.(2) In 2015,the net import of water nitrogen pollution embodied in China's trade was 160,000 tons,accounting for 2.72% of the global water nitrogen imports.The sharp increases in cereal imports,together with high food storage as well as high pollution intensity embedded in trade are the main reason.It is recommended that through applying alleviations such as agricultural machinery assistance and technical training to accelerate the transfer and spread of agricultural technology in Africa,Asia,and other regions,thus helping increase agricultural production productivity in underdeveloped areas and reducing the pollution intensity embodied in trade flows from underdeveloped areas to developed areas.

Reducing pollution by adjusting China's trade mix—A case study using SO_2 emissions

This paper investigates the impact of foreign trade on China’s pollution emissions using an input-output model. Generally speaking,as exports are more pollution-intensive than imports,foreign trade helps reduce China’s emissions. Given the huge surplus of trade in goods and declines in the ratio of import/export emission intensities,an emission deficit emerged in China’s foreign trade.The fundamental cause is the worsening product mix of foreign trade.With technical progress outpaced by foreign trade growth,however,total emissions of export goods have been on the rise.

Embodied Pollution in China-U.S.Trade——An Empirical Study Based on Estimation of Input-Output Technology Matrix

Using input-output tables of China and the U.S., this paper has calculated the pollution embodied in trade and structure of pollution, the balance of emissions embodied in trade （BEET） and the pollution terms of trade （PTT） for 18 manufacturing sectors of China and the US. between 2001 and 2010. The calculation aims to verify whether China has become a ＂pollution haven＂ in bilateral trade with developed countries represented by the U.S., and whether Chinese exports are ＂dirtier＂ compared with imports from the U.S., and further conducting an industry structure analysis and effect decomposition study on pollution embodied in trade in industrial goods between China and U.S.. Result of our research indicates that according to our calculation of the BEET, China remains a country with environmental deficits in bilateral trade with the U.S. while the gaps between pollution embodied in China＇s export and import are narrowing. Pollution embodied in China＇s export has the tendency of increase before decline while pollution embodied in import demonstrates no significant tendency of decline. Through effect decomposition, we further found that the effect of technology arising from the substantial decline of pollution intensity effectively lowered pollution embodied in export and narrowed the environmental deficits of China in its bilateral trade. The effect of scale arising from growing export volumes significantly increased China＇s environmental deficits while the structural effect arising from changes in the structure of import and export is insignificant in reducing environmental deficits. Our calculation of the PTT led to the finding that China＇s export goods are more pollution intensive compared with import goods and that the structure of US exports to China is cleaner than the structure of Chinese exports to the US., which requires further improvements of China＇s import and export structure.

Research on carbon emissions embodied in China-Russia trade under the background of the Belt and Road

Based on the latest China-Russia input-output data sets over the period from 2007 to 2015,this study quantified the flow of embodied carbon emissions in China-Russia trade using the emission embodied in bilateral trade(EEBT)approach.In addition,the structural decomposition analysis(SDA)was employed to identify the potential driving factors that affect embodied carbon in imports and exports.The results showed as follow.1)China was a net exporter of carbon emissions in bilateral trade between China and Russia during 2007–2015.Despite that the bilateral trade scale had expanded considerably,the net export volume of CO_(2)from China to Russia decreased from 13.21 Mt in 2007 to 4.45 Mt in 2015.2)From the perspective of different sectors,the metal manufacturing and the chemical sectors of China and Russia were the main sources of CO_(2)emissions.3)In terms of driving factors,it was found that the carbon emission coefficient was the main reason for contributing to embodied emission reduction.Moreover,the contribution rate of carbon emission coefficient to reduce the carbon emissions in imports reached to 95.26%,as well as 108.22%in exports.The bilateral trade scale was the main driver for the increase in embodied carbon emissions,and the contribution rate to embodied carbon emissions in imports and exports were 14.80%and 65.17%,respectively.4)This study argued that China and Russia should further optimize the energy structure and improve the energy efficiency and intermediate technology in the future.

The energy-intensity of China's export trade

China is one of the world’s major importers and exporters. On the one hand, massive exports have created enormous economic value and employment opportunities for Chinese and become one of the vital forces underpinning the country’s economic growth. On the other hand, exports have caused a huge amount of energy resource consumption and carbon emissions and added pressure to the country for a sustainable growth. China exports a wide variety of products, each of which is attached to a different industry chain with different energy consumptions. Therefore, the evolution of the product structure has become one of the key factors affecting China’s future energy consumption and economic growth. To further promote nationwide energy conservation and emission reduction, reduce the pressure exerted by economic growth on energy consumption and the environment and win more space for sustainable economic growth, it is imperative to understand energy consumption and carbon emissions embodied in export products and provide support for China’s export policy adjustment. This study attempts to calculate, compare and analyze the embodied energy and carbon emissions in 46 major export products using the full life cycle assessment method, and concludes by offering policy recommendations.

中国农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放测算及异质性分析——来自“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)的证据

采用环境拓展投入产出法测算了2007—2021年中国对“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)农产品出口贸易的隐含碳排放,进而运用LMDI模型探究贸易规模因素、出口结构因素和农业技术因素对隐含碳排放变动的贡献值与贡献率,从农产品部门和贸易区域两个层面对隐含碳排放变动的驱动因素进行异质性分析。研究发现:第一,2007—2021年中国对“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)的出口贸易隐含碳排放整体呈上升趋势,农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放年均增长率超过农产品出口贸易额年均增长率2.75%,隐含碳排放效率下降。第二,农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放存在明显的部门差异,因不合理的出口结构,农业、食品制造业和食品加工业等中高度碳排放密集型部门对隐含碳排放总量变动的贡献值占比较大,而林业、畜牧业等低度碳排放密集型部门的这一占比较小。第三,农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放存在明显的区域差异,对东南亚国家(地区)出口农产品产生的隐含碳排放占总碳排放的60%以上,贸易规模因素和农业技术因素是造成区域差异的主导因素。上述发现揭示了中国农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放变动的原因,为优化农产品出口结构、调整农产品出口贸易策略及碳排放双控制度的实施提供了新的思路与经验证据。

基于多区域投入产出的黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放时空格局及结构分解

厘清黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放时空格局及其驱动因素,对于制定公平有效的减排方案,实现区域合作减排的重要目标至关重要。利用多区域投入产出模型深入研究2007—2017年黄河流域9个省区贸易隐含碳排放的构成,以及其在省级和行业层面的转移路径;通过结构分解方法,追踪黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放区域内外的影响因素,揭示其区域内外影响因素的异质性。结果表明:黄河流域整体呈净贸易隐含碳转出区域,主要由中间投入的贸易方式进入其他各省的生产需求时导致。该流域的生产供应和整体需求正向中西部和东北地区转移,而对东南沿海省份的供应和需求正逐渐减少。区域外的最终需求和本地的碳排放强度是影响转出贸易隐含碳的主要因素,区域内的最终需求和区域外的碳排放强度是影响转入贸易隐含碳的主要因素。此外,生产结构和最终需求是影响黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放的关键因素,前者对黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放起抑制作用,后者则主要起驱动作用。

碳排放权交易能否改善区域环境污染?——基于七个试点省市的合成控制法检验

统筹低碳发展和环境保护是实现协同发展的重要内容,碳排放权交易政策是否具有环境污染的协同治理效应探讨将是对环境政策协同治理效果研究的有效补充。基于2000—2017年省级面板数据,本文对区域环境污染展开综合评价,并采取合成控制法研究碳排放权交易政策对区域环境污染的影响效应,采用双重差分法分析碳排放权交易试点政策对环境污染的影响机制。研究表明碳排放权交易政策可以显著降低区域环境污染,政策效应具有异质性,同时碳排放权交易政策通过提升技术、优化能源结构两条路径改善环境污染。因此我国应在全国范围内因地制宜建立碳排放权交易机制,完善优化能源结构、提升技术活力的相关制度体系。

国际贸易隐含碳转移溢出、转型风险与宏观金融稳定

在国际贸易、环境经济与气候金融相互影响的背景下,本文通过构建可以观察碳转移溢出效应的全球碳转移联通网络,实证分析了碳转移溢出对宏观金融稳定的影响及传导机制。结果表明:各经济体之间碳转移溢出明显降低了经济发展水平较低、气候损失较大以及气候表现绩效较差经济体的金融稳定水平,特别是增加了经济体的外债清偿风险、经常账户余额风险和国际储备流动性风险,资产价格重估视角下的转型风险是其中介机制。此外,本文还发现气候适应性措施能够有效减缓碳转移溢出对宏观金融稳定的影响,相比之下,现有的绿色宏观审慎监管框架需要进一步完善。本文探讨了气候金融框架下气候变化影响宏观金融稳定的一个可能传导链条,为从双循环视角推进我国经济绿色发展提供了新的证据。

碳减排“双试点”政策能否发挥“减污降碳试验田”效能

碳交易政策和低碳城市试点政策作为两项典型的碳减排试点政策,对减污降碳是否具有政策叠加效应?本文基于2006—2020年中国279个地级市面板数据,运用多期双重差分模型,从政策协同、目标协同的视角探究碳减排政策对城市减污降碳的影响。结果表明:①碳减排“双试点”政策对减污降碳具有明显的协同效应,政策实施时间越长,减排效应越强;②“双试点”政策通过创新效应和减源效应实现减污降碳协同;③西部地区、非资源型城市、非老工业基地和发达城市实施“双试点”政策,减污降碳效果更好;④两个“单试点”政策都能促进减污降碳,二者相比,碳交易政策的降碳效果更好,低碳城市试点政策的减污效应更优。“双试点”比“单试点”政策对减污降碳更有效,先成为低碳城市试点再实施碳交易政策的“双试点”城市减污降碳效果更明显。本文研究可为碳减排政策的实施提供参考和一定支撑。

排污权与碳排放权交易协同推进机制

随着社会各界对环境的重视程度加强,绿色可持续发展成为了当今时代发展主题之一,排污权交易和碳排放权交易是绿色交易市场建设的重要手段,是健全现代环境治理体系市场化机制的必然要求,是推动建立健全生态产品价值实现机制的关键路径。排污权和碳排放权的交易制度具有管理相似、减排协同、范围交叉等方面的特点,二者的协同,将会极大地提高环境管理效能、降低实施成本、减少污染物排放。总结了碳排放权与排污权交易体系进行的可行性研究现状,并指出了两体系在建设过程中所遇到的问题,提出排污权和碳排放权交易机制协同的路径设计,在此基础上提出完善相关法规体系、推进监测机制协同、提出开展碳排放权交易和排污权交易环境协同效益评估的建议,为全球绿色可持续发展和污染控制提出了一条可行路径。

国家低碳战略协同的减污降碳效应

立足高质量发展阶段和建设美丽中国的背景下,基于2006—2022年中国284个城市面板数据,使用多期双重差分模型,从规模和效率双重视角探究低碳城市建设和碳排放权交易为代表的国家低碳战略协同的减污降碳效应。结果表明,“双试点”政策显著抑制了污染和碳排放规模,且“双试点”政策的协同效果好于“单试点”政策效果,以上结论通过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。作用机制检验显示,“双试点”政策不仅可以通过城镇化、产业结构升级、政府环境污染治理路径对减污降碳产生影响,而且绿色金融在此过程中发挥了调节作用。“双试点”政策减污降碳效果与地理位置、工业结构系数和制造业转移水平有重大关联,且异质性显著。研究结论对于释放国家低碳政策“1+1>2”的效应,实现降碳与增长协同具有启示意义。

东道国碳定价下中国企业对外直接投资与低碳转型研究

在加快发展绿色转型和持续提高对外开放的背景下,对外直接投资是企业绿色发展和转型升级的重要渠道,影响着企业的生产利润和环保绩效。本文采用2010~2022年上市公司数据,基于面板固定效应模型深入探究对外直接投资影响母国企业低碳转型的程度和机制。实证研究发现企业对外直接投资显著降低了企业碳排放强度,加速了企业低碳转型进程。企业对碳定价东道国的投资显著减少企业碳排放,且对碳交易东道国投资的减排效果强于对碳税东道国投资的减排效果。机制检验显示,对外直接投资通过促进企业结构转型和技术升级实现碳减排,对碳定价东道国投资显著提升了企业低碳技术水平。异质性分析发现,对外直接投资的碳减排作用在大型企业、高科技企业、中东部地区企业更为显著。本文为对外直接投资影响企业低碳转型的机制提供了微观证据,也为企业合理选择国际化战略、促进高质量发展提供了参考。

中国出口服务贸易数字化水平对“双碳”目标的影响——基于中国与44个国家贸易数据的实证研究

“双碳”目标背景下,数字服务贸易这一新兴贸易形式为控制碳排放提供了新路径。本文根据最新的双边服务贸易数字化数据,选取中国与44个国家2007—2018年的贸易数据,实证检验中国出口服务贸易数字化水平对出口贸易隐含碳的影响。研究可知,中国出口服务贸易数字化水平的提升可以抑制出口隐含碳排放。

碳排放权交易制度对减污降碳协同治理的影响研究

实现减污降碳协同增效是我国实现双碳目标的前提,碳市场的建立则是实现双碳目标的重要手段,因此,研究碳市场对减污降碳的影响极具现实意义。故以碳排放权交易制度作为一项准自然实验,基于2005—2021年中国30个省市自治区的面板数据,运用双重差分法考察碳排放权交易制度实施对减污降碳协同治理的影响效果。结果表明,碳排放权交易制度实施能有效促进减污降碳协同治理;该促进作用主要通过降低能源消费规模、提高绿色技术创新水平和优化产业结构实现;在行政干预力度和市场化程度越高的地区,该政策对减污降碳协同治理促进作用越强。基于此,建议结合实际需要,完善全国碳排放交易市场建设,加大科技研发投入和治污投入,正确处理政府和碳市场的关系,最大化政府干预在碳市场机制中的作用。

基于投入产出分析的中国国际贸易碳排放研究

采用投入产出分析法,结合部门能源消费数据,从最终需求的角度评估了2002年中国进出口贸易中国家和部门的碳排放.2002年中国为贸易隐含碳排放的净出口国,净出口的碳排放介于22.60～168.14Mt,占国内总排放的2.03%～15.09%.其中,满足国外需求的国内出口碳排放为261.19Mt,约占当年国内总排放的23.45%,相当于总出口排放的79.03%～90.62%;实际用于中国国内使用的进口碳排放为93.05～238.59Mt,约占总进口排放的77.49%,占国内总排放的8.35%～21.42%.2002年中国因进口而间接向全球减少的碳污染排放高达187.81Mt.约67%的总出口碳排放来自11个部门,超过50%的总进口碳排放主要来自5个部门;化学原料及化学制品制造业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业、通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业是进出口碳排放净平衡中受生产技术影响最显著的部门.

基于LMDI方法的中国国际贸易隐含碳分解

对国际贸易产生环境影响的定量研究正日益受到关注,特别是对隐含碳的研究。以中国2005年为例,对中国国际贸易隐含碳进行估算,应用对数平均D氏指数法(LMDI)对影响隐含碳净转移的因素进行分解分析。结果显示中国因生产排放碳量远大于其消费需要排放的碳量,从国外净转移到中国的隐含碳为395.66MtC;净转移隐含碳影响因素中强度效应(进出口商品完全碳排放系数差异)贡献率为60%,规模效应(进出额差异)贡献率为55%,结构效应(进出口结构差异)贡献率为-14%,此结果表明中国相比国外的高碳排放强度是造成目前碳转移额外增加的主要因素,分析结构效应发现中国主要净出口行业大部分不是高碳排放强度行业,而净进口行业却主要由高碳排放强度行业构成,特别是与碳排放密切相关的能源行业居净进口行业首位。

对外贸易隐含SO_2测算及影响因素的结构分解分析

本研究根据中国2002、2005、2007年非竞争型投入产出表、OECD的国外投入产出表和GTAPVersion 7.0的SO2排放强度等数据,利用多国投入产出模型方法测算了中国对外贸易中隐含SO2,相关的行业结构分布以及隐含污染物在主要贸易伙伴国的贸易流向,并通过结构分解方法分析了三大因素对出口贸易隐污染物的贡献大小。研究结果表明:2002年至2007年间,我国对外贸易创造了巨大贸易顺差,同时也带来了大量隐含SO2顺差;迅速增长的贸易规模是出口贸易隐含污染物增加的主要因素,但是,环境保护和节能减排技术改进导致的SO2排放强度下降抑制出口贸易隐含SO2增加,而投入产出中间结构变化对其影响较小。