A Prediction Framework for Turning Period Structures in COVID-19 Epidemic and Its Application to Practical Emergency Risk Management

The aim of this paper is first to establish a general prediction framework for turning(period)term structures in COVID-19 epidemic related to the implementation of emergency risk management in the practice,which allows us to conduct the reliable estimation for the peak period based on the new concept of“Turning Period”(instead of the traditional one with the focus on“Turning Point”)for infectious disease spreading such as the COVID-19 epidemic appeared early in year 2020.By a fact that emergency risk management is necessarily to implement emergency plans quickly,the identification of the Turning Period is a key element to emergency planning as it needs to provide a time line for effective actions and solutions to combat a pandemic by reducing as much unexpected risk as soon as possible.As applications,the paper also discusses how this“Turning Term(Period)Structure”is used to predict the peak phase for COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan from January/2020 to early March/2020.Our study shows that the predication framework established in this paper is capable to provide the trajectory of COVID-19 cases dynamics for a few weeks starting from Feb.10/2020 to early March/2020,from which we successfully predicted that the turning period of COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan would arrive within one week after Feb.14/2020,as verified by the true observation in the practice.The method established in this paper for the prediction of“Turning Term(Period)Structures”by applying COVID-19 epidemic in China happened early 2020 seems timely and accurate,providing adequate time for the government,hospitals,essential industry sectors and services to meet peak demands and to prepare aftermath planning,and associated criteria for the Turning Term Structure of COVID-19 epidemic is expected to be a useful and powerful tool to implement the so-called“dynamic zero-COVID-19 policy”ongoing basis in the practice.

Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management (Health-EDRM):Developing the Research Field within the Sendai Framework Paradigm

The intersection of health and disaster risk reduction(DRR) has emerged in recent years as a field of critical inquiry.Health is recognized as an outcome and a goal of DRR,and the integration of both fields is essential to ensure the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030.Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management(Health-EDRM) has emerged as an umbrella field that encompasses emergency and disaster medicine,DRR,humanitarian response,community health resilience,and health systems resilience.In September 2016,an international group of experts met in Hong Kong to assess the current status and potential of the Health-EDRM research field,a research area that these scholars characterized as underdeveloped and fragmented.Key challenges identified include research overlap,lack ofstrategic research agenda,absence of consensus regarding terminology,and limited coordination between stakeholders.The Sendai Framework provides a useful paradigm within which to shape the research field's strategic development.The WHO Thematic Platform for Health-EDRM Research Group was established to coordinate activities,promote information-sharing,develop partnerships,and provide technical advice to strengthen the Health-EDRM research field.This group will promote the generation of robust and scientific health research to support the meaningful implementation of the Sendai Framework.

Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management (Health-EDRM) in Remote Ethnic Minority Areas of Rural China:The Case of a Flood-Prone Village in Sichuan

Remote,rural ethnic-minority communities face greater disaster-related public health risks due to their lack of resources and limited access to health care.The Ethnic Minority Health Project(EMHP) was initiated in 2009 to work with remote,disaster-prone ethnic-minority villages that live in extreme poverty.One of the project's aims is to develop and evaluate bottom-up health risk reduction efforts in emergency and disaster risk management(HealthEDRM).This article shares project updates and describes field intervention results from the Yi ethnic community of Hongyan village in China's Sichuan Province,an area that experiences recurrent floods.It was found that 64% of the village respondents had never considered any form of disaster preparation,even with the recurrent flood risks.Health intervention participants showed sustained knowledge retention and were nine times more likely to know the correct composition of oral rehydration solution(ORS) after the intervention.Participants also retained the improved knowledge on ORS and disaster preparedness kit ownership12 months after the intervention.