Science and Technology Promotion Policies of Strategic Emerging Industries in Anhui Province

In recent years,based on advantages of industry,market,science and technology and other development environment,strategic emerging industries in Anhui Province are developing rapidly,and emerging industries such as new energy,new materials,new generation of information technology occupy an important market share in China and even the world.However,there are still a number of problems in the process of development,and the policy support has a greater impact.In this paper,the development status of strategic emerging industries in Anhui Province was discussed firstly,and then the challenges and problems of the development was discussed.Finally,some science and technology promotion policies of strategic emerging industries in Anhui Province were proposed.

Governing the gold rush into emerging markets: a case study of Indonesia’s regulatory responses to the expansion of Chinese-backed online P2P lending

Peer-to-peer(P2P)lending has the potential to boost financial inclusion in emerging markets.This paper contributes to the literature on fintech governance in emerging Asian markets.It examines the case of the Indonesian government’s approach in regulating the P2P lending sector using both primary interviews and secondary firmlevel data.Driven by regulation tightening in China and regulatory gaps in Indonesia,Chinese investments became the largest in this sector contributing,however,to growing risks from illegal business practices.The Indonesian government responded by creating new regulations and institutions,mitigating risks without stifling the potential for financial inclusion.We conclude a proactive approach towards monitoring and regulating emerging high-tech industries should be sought by strengthening links with industry and civil society,and through international cooperation for policy and knowledge sharing.

The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis on Emerging Markets： Quantitative Identification of Crisis in Continent-based Regions

This paper focuses on a direct quantitative identification of crisis periods in selected emerging stock markets from four continent-based regions of Europe, Latin America, East Asia, and Middle East and North Africa （MENA）, in the context of an influence of the 2007 U.S. subprime financial crisis. The 17 emerging stock markets and, for comparison, the U.S. stock market are investigated. A statistical method of dividing market states into bullish and bearish markets, based on monthly logarithmic returns of major stock market indexes, is employed. The analyzed sample period begins in January 2003 and ends in December 2013. As there is no unanimity in the literature about the crisis periods in the continent-based regions, a formal statistical identification of crises is worthwhile to conduct. Furthermore, the effect of increasing cross-market correlations in the crisis compared to the pre-crisis period in the context of contagion is examining. To address this issue, both standard contemporaneous cross-correlations and volatility-adjusted cross-correlations are applied. The results are consistent with the literature and confn＇m that tests for contagion based on cross-market correlations are problematic due to the bias introduced by changing volatility in market returns. As contagion can be confused with globalization, the globalization tests in the group of international investigated markets are employed. The results generally do not confirm a global world market integration effect, i.e. there is no reason to reject the research hypothesis of no globalization during the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

Performance of Risk Measures in Portfolio Construction on Central and South-East European Emerging Markets

Aim of this paper is to characterize different risk measures in portfolio construction on seven Central and South-East European stock markets;Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Chez Republic, Bulgaria and Romania. Selected countries are members of EU, except Croatia and Turkey which have candidate status. Empirical part of this paper consists of three stages;at first descriptive statistic on stock returns was performed, afterwards different risk measures were employed in portfolio construction and in the last part, portfolios were tested in the out-of-sample period. Results indicate presence of extreme kurtosis and skewness in stock return series. Resulting portfolios incorporate stocks with extremely high kurtosis and stocks with negative skewness. Portfolio construction based only on risk and return results in major exposure to extreme returns and unsatisfactory portfolio out of sample results.

Market Structure, Liquidity and the Performance of Emerging Equity Markets

Recent studies analyzing the liquidity of emerging equity markets （EEM） focus mainly on two independent variables： （1） the turnover ratio and （2） value of equity traded. They ignore the impact of the market concentration of stock traded which could generate price distortion/manipulation. This study empirically estimates the impact of market structure （concentration） and liquidity （turnover ratio） on equity performance （price/returns） of 19 EEM. We use panel data for the period 1992-2000 and least square dummy variable regression technique that measure fixed effects and the dynamics of adjustment. The results show the significance of both independent variables. Liquidity favours investment, and market concentration suggests the potential for market/price manipulation that requires regulatory policies. These results indicate success of reform policies aimed at capital deepening to improve efficient capital allocation and provide profitable investment opportunities.

Due Diligence in Mergers and Acquisitions in Emerging Markets： Evaluated Risk Factors From the Academic and Practical View

The obviously ever increasing number of corporate acquisitions in recent decades has improved the general knowledge and awareness of due diligence for both the industry and research. In the current challenging business environment, acquisitions face a higher degree of risk profiles, especially cross-border acquisitions in the emerging markets. Conducting a thorough due diligence investigation in the context of an acquisition is more important now than ever. In a broad analysis, this paper researches the key risk factors in the acquisition process and their assessment within a due diligence audit in the acquisition phase. The task of this paper is to match the academic and practical view in order to give a more complete understanding of risk factors to be covered in due diligence audit. The starting point is the research of academic findings which basically concentrate on common approaches considering financial, legal, commercial, and some other issues in domestic acquisitions and in developed countries. In contrast, this paper considers risk factors in cross-border and emerging markets transactions. In addition, a number of business consultants publish studies based on surveys on this topic which reflect typical risk factors based on experience of their customers being involved in cross-border acquisitions. Their risk assessment consists of specific regulatory, political, and other factors, which may lead to commercial and reputational impediments in cross-border acquisitions. The outcome of the comparison is a comprehended list of evaluated risk factors, whereby the academic findings are complemented and supported by the practical experience in the business consultant＇s studies. Moreover, the practical approach points to the fact that due diligence scope needs to be suited to the dynamics of the markets. The comparison and the comprehended list of evaluated risk factors call for a more integrated system of due diligence and show herein the research deficit. Hence, the novelty is the compendium of evaluated risk factors which should be assessed in the pre-acquisition phase. The originality of the paper is given by a unique analysis of academic work about acquisition due diligence literature and consultant studies from anonymized practical experience based on insider information.

Isolating the female agency‑driven development factor in external sovereign emerging market debt

The underlying literature hypothesises and provides randomised evidence for the positive impact of promoting the broad-based inclusion,empowerment,and representation of women on regional ecosystems.This study seeks to isolate a female agencydriven development factor in external sovereign emerging market debt and finds evidence for superior risk-adjusted returns from tilting towards female agency leaders.We propose the female agency factor as an additional scope in the modern investor’s toolbox of holistic credit assessment,allowing investors to isolate the issuers which are the most effective sovereign transmission mechanisms of sustainable development capital.This contribution to the corpus supports the notion of integrating sustainability factors into portfolio construction and reinforces the argument for supporting femaleled development from a financial markets’perspective.

Does country risk impact the banking sectors’non‑performing loans?Evidence from BRICS emerging economies

This study aims to fill the gap in the literature by specifically investigating the impact of country risk on the credit risk of the banking sectors operating in Brazil,Russia,India,China,and South Africa(BRICS),emerging countries.More specifically,we explore whether the country-specific risks,namely financial,economic,and political risks significantly impact the BRICS banking sectors’non-performing loans and also probe which risk has the most outstanding effect on credit risk.To do so,we perform panel data analysis using the quantile estimation approach covering the period 2004–2020.The empirical results reveal that the country risk significantly leads to increasing the banking sector’s credit risk and this effect is prominent in the banking sector of countries with a higher degree of non-performing loans(Q.25=−0.105,Q.50=−0.131,Q.75=−0.153,Q.95=−0.175).Furthermore,the results underscore that an emerging country’s political,economic,and financial instabilities are strongly associated with increasing the banking sector’s credit risk and a rise in political risk in particular has the most positive prominent impact on the banking sector of countries with a higher degree of non-performing loans(Q.25=−0.122,Q.50=−0.141,Q.75=−0.163,Q.95=−0.172).Moreover,the results suggest that,in addition to the banking sectorspecific determinants,credit risk is significantly impacted by the financial market development,lending interest rate,and global risk.The results are robust and have significant policy suggestions for many policymakers,bank executives,researchers,and analysts.

Taking on Emerging Markets

Chinese companies should bring our own brands and technologies overseas to boost competition in the global market,

资本市场国际化与企业社会责任报告印象管理

以2010-2020年的A股上市公司为样本,基于PSM-DID模型考察了A股纳入MSCI指数的外生事件对企业社会责任报告印象管理的影响。结果发现,A股纳入MSCI能够有效抑制上市公司的社会责任报告印象管理行为,而儒家文化和高管海外背景则在上述关系中发挥了积极的调节功效。进一步研究表明,资本市场国际化的治理功效主要是通过改善信息质量和降低代理成本这两条途径得以发挥,且在内部控制质量较高、外部审计质量较低、自愿性信息披露更充分、未投保董责险、管理层权力大以及国有企业的样本中更为显著。检验发现,A股纳入MSCI后通过约束社会责任报告的印象管理行为提升了企业的财务绩效并降低了真实盈余管理水平。

新兴市场企业第一次跨境并购的速度及影响因素:跳板理论的视角

跳板理论认为,新兴市场企业往往通过积极的跨境并购来获取战略性资产。本文从跳板理论的视角,基于中国企业在2003—2020年期间发生的416次第一次跨境并购(CBMA)和18184个观测值,运用Cox比例风险模型回归,考察了新兴市场企业第一次跨境并购的速度及其影响因素。研究发现,新兴市场的年轻企业执行第一次跨国并购的速度快于成熟企业;国际化程度较低和国内并购经验比较欠缺的年轻企业实施第一次跨境并购的速度快于其他企业。这表明新兴市场企业的国际化具有强烈的追赶动机和积极的风险承担倾向。本文的发现拓展了跳板理论的解释边界,深化了我们对于新兴市场企业跨境并购行为的理解。

数字基础设施建设水平与中国对外直接投资——基于新兴市场国家的考察

基于2008—2020年23个新兴市场国家的面板数据,研究了东道国数字基础设施建设水平对中国OFDI的影响效应。研究发现:新兴市场国家数字基础设施建设水平的提升对中国对外直接投资具有显著正向影响,在考虑了内生性问题以及进行各种稳健性检验后,结论仍然成立。区域异质性分析发现,相较亚非地区,欧美地区数字基础设施建设水平的提高更有助于吸引中国OFDI;收入水平异质性分析发现,相较高收入国家,中低收入国家数字基础设施具有更强的正向影响。东道国数字基础设施通过“成本节约效应”“市场扩张效应”影响中国对外直接投资。

重大突发事件下中国金融风险跨市场多周期溢出效应研究

在重大突发事件频发的背景下,从多周期角度考察中国金融风险的跨市场溢出效应,对于防范化解重大金融风险具有重要意义。采用小波多分辨分析、DY溢出指数与风险溢出网络模型,从静态和动态角度测度了重大突发事件的短期、中期、长期内我国金融市场间风险溢出的强度和方向,识别不同事件不同周期下的风险中心及演变规律。研究发现:从静态角度来看,中国金融市场平均风险溢出水平呈现随周期增加而增加的趋势,“欧债危机”时期的风险总溢出最小,市场在各个时期不同周期下的风险净溢出情况不同,净风险溢出、溢入市场不断变化;从动态角度来看,重大突发事件冲击下金融市场总体风险传染水平呈现先上升后逐渐平稳并回落的趋势,短期总溢出指数最低,中期最高,但在某些时期,短期总溢出水平可能高于中长期;不同重大突发事件、不同周期下风险的承担中心、风险在各金融市场间的传染路径均会发生变化。因此,在强化金融市场风险监管时,需要建立全流程风险防控体系以实现风险的有效处置,针对不同事件、不同周期的反应差异,实现金融风险的精准识别与重点管理。

新型疫苗接种异常反应国家补偿责任之证成

附条件上市及紧急使用的疫苗是有别于传统疫苗类型的新型疫苗,无法直接套用现有的异常反应补偿责任模式;而其异常反应若得不到有效补偿,会使社会陷入接种迟疑,导致群体免疫目标无法达成。鉴于国家补偿责任的决定因素为公益性,主管部门“应种尽种”的劝导虽无法定强制力,但有行政权威背景下的事实强制力,且受种人对之具有信赖利益,因而对该类疫苗异常反应的补偿责任,不应比照非免疫规划疫苗由疫苗企业承担,而应与免疫规划疫苗一致由国家承担补偿责任,这也是国家承担宪法义务的体现;且该类疫苗异常反应的国家补偿责任也普遍为世界各国及地区和世卫组织所采纳,因而也有充分的比较法依据;而国家或国际合作平台替代企业责任后,疫苗上市后的警戒和采购控制对提升疫苗安全更起着关键作用。

实现碳中和目标的CCUS产业发展展望

中国碳中和目标的实现对CCUS技术需求巨大,亟须加快培育CCUS产业,赋能中国碳中和时代高质量发展。CCUS技术全链条产业体系建设将牵引制造业、采矿业、金融业等七大产业门类、25个大类和64个小类国民经济行业的技术、设备、材料、服务、市场及政策等创新需求,培植碳核查、碳金融、碳资产管理等新产业。围绕中国CCUS产业化现存的技术基础薄弱、市场被国外厂商主导、政策体系不完善等挑战,建议未来从以下几方面着手:搭建CCUS产业基础数据共享平台,加大产业关键技术研发投入,打造CCUS产业孵化基地,探索创新产业商业模式及市场机制,重视CCUS专业人才培养等。

电力市场与能量管理系统（EMS）

电力市场的出现必将带动能量管理系统的发展，该文就电力市场在信息、电价、交易和监督等方面对能量管理系统提出了新的技术要求。

电力市场的发展对EMS的新挑战

介绍了国际上电力市场的兴起、发展和几种可能的模式。

提高紧急情形下EMS人机交互能力的探索

紧急情形下,能量管理系统(EMS)人机交互的需求与实际能力之间存在巨大的矛盾,该矛盾影响到调度员解决系统问题的工作绩效。为提高紧急情形下EMS人机交互能力,文中从多个方面进行了研究:分析了调度员心理应激所产生的负面影响并提出相应的改进办法;提出利用输入冗余的引入提高输入可靠性的观点;提出人工智能和自适应人机界面相互融合的观点;建议通过利用计算机支持的协同工作加强调度员之间的协作能力。在现有计算机水平前提下,以上方法的实现均能在一定程度上提高紧急情形下EMS的人机交互能力。

中美投资者关注与石油市场的波动风险——基于互联网搜索视角

行为金融学理论和互联网的发展,为解析投资者关注与金融市场之间的微观机制提供新的视角。本文聚焦于中美投资者关注对石油市场风险的影响。首先,基于GARCH-MIDAS模型实现投资者关注对石油期现货市场波动的影响测度。其次,围绕中美贸易摩擦这一突发事件构建中美投资者关注度指标,通过DCC-GARCH-CoVaR模型测度突发事件对石油市场风险溢出的影响,并分析中国与美国投资者关注对石油市场风险影响的差异性。研究发现,中美投资者关注度变化将导致石油市场波动增强,影响石油市场的稳定性;相较中国投资者关注,美国投资者关注对石油市场的影响作用更为显著。此外,投资者对中美贸易摩擦的关注对石油期现货市场之间风险溢出具有显著影响,在高风险溢出时更为显著。相关研究有助于了解突发事件对石油市场影响的不确定性,为提升我国对世界石油市场突发性风险的应对能力提供参考。

EMS诱变对高粱种子萌发及农艺性状的影响

为了利用诱变技术快速创造变异类型丰富的高粱新材料用于高粱遗传改良,分别用0.00%、0.20%、0.25%、0.30%和0.35%的甲基磺酸乙酯(EMS)溶液对高粱优良保持系11494B和11476B种子进行诱变处理,分析EMS处理对高粱相对成苗率、株高、叶片、穗型、育性和成熟期的影响,以确定高粱EMS处理的最适条件。结果表明,随EMS浓度升高,保持系11494B和11476B的相对成苗率、株高、叶形、穗型、育性和成熟期变异率升高,与对照组相比,在0.35%处理水平下,差异均达极显著水平;在0.20%~0.35%处理下,11476B的相对成苗率及株高、育性和成熟期变异率较11494B更为敏感;11494B的穗型变异率对EMS处理更为敏感;叶形变异率在低EMS浓度下11476B较11494B敏感,高浓度下11494B较11476B敏感。以半致死浓度作为诱变标准,高粱诱变育种时,0.35%和0.30%的EMS浸种12 h可分别作为11494B和11476B构建突变体库和筛选株高突变体的适宜条件;0.35%的EMS浸种12 h可作为11494B和11476B筛选叶形、穗型和成熟期突变体的适宜条件。