Carbon dioxide(CO_(2))from road traffic is a non-negligible part of global greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions,and it is a challenge for the world today to accurately estimate road traffic CO_(2)emissions and formulate effec...Carbon dioxide(CO_(2))from road traffic is a non-negligible part of global greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions,and it is a challenge for the world today to accurately estimate road traffic CO_(2)emissions and formulate effective emission reduction policies.Current emission inventories for vehicles have either low-resolution,or limited coverage,and they have not adequately focused on the CO_(2)emission produced by new energy vehicles(NEV)considering fuel life cycle.To fill the research gap,this paper proposed a framework of a high-resolution well-to-wheel(WTW)CO_(2)emission estimation for a full sample of vehicles and revealed the unique CO_(2)emission characteristics of different categories of vehicles combined with vehicle behavior.Based on this,the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of CO_(2)emissions were analyzed with the geographical and temporal weighted regression(GTWR)model.Finally,the CO_(2)emissions of vehicles under different scenarios are simulated to support the formulation of emission reduction policies.The results show that the distribution of vehicle CO_(2)emissions shows obvious heterogeneity in time,space,and vehicle category.By simply adjusting the existing NEV promotion policy,the emission reduction effect can be improved by 6.5%-13.5%under the same NEV penetration.If combined with changes in power generation structure,it can further release the emission reduction potential of NEVs,which can reduce the current CO_(2)emissions by 78.1%in the optimal scenario.展开更多
Data show that carbon emissions are increasing due to human energy consumption associated with economic development. As a result, a great deal of attention has been focused on efforts to reduce this growth in carbon e...Data show that carbon emissions are increasing due to human energy consumption associated with economic development. As a result, a great deal of attention has been focused on efforts to reduce this growth in carbon emissions as well as to formulate policies to address and mitigate climate change. Although the majority of previous studies have explored the driving forces underlying Chinese carbon emissions, few have been carried out at the city-level because of the limited availability of relevant energy consumption statistics. Here, we utilize spatial autocorrelation, Markov-chain transitional matrices, a dynamic panel model, and system generalized distance estimation(Sys-GMM) to empirically evaluate the key determinants of carbon emissions at the city-level based on Chinese remote sensing data collected between 1992 and 2013. We also use these data to discuss observed spatial spillover effects taking into account spatiotemporal lag and a range of different geographical and economic weighting matrices. The results of this study suggest that regional discrepancies in city-level carbon emissions have decreased over time, which are consistent with a marked spatial spillover effect, and a ‘club' agglomeration of high-emissions. The evolution of these patterns also shows obvious path dependence, while the results of panel data analysis reveal the presence of a significant U-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and per capita GDP. Data also show that per capita carbon emissions have increased in concert with economic growth in most cities, and that a high-proportion of secondary industry and extensive investment growth have also exerted significant positive effects on city-level carbon emissions across China. In contrast, rapid population agglomeration, improvements in technology, increasing trade openness, and the accessibility and density of roads have all played a role in inhibiting carbon emissions. Thus, in order to reduce emissions, the Chinese government should legislate to inhibit the effects of factors that promote the release of carbon while at the same time acting to encourage those that mitigate this process. On the basis of the analysis presented in this study, we argue that optimizing industrial structures, streamlining extensive investment, increasing the level of technology, and improving road accessibility are all effective approaches to increase energy savings and reduce carbon emissions across China.展开更多
基金supported by"Pioneer"and"Leading Goose"R&D Program of Zhejiang(2023C03155)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72361137006,52131202,and 92046011)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province(LR23E080002)Alibaba-Zhejiang University Joint Research Institute of Frontier Technologies.
文摘Carbon dioxide(CO_(2))from road traffic is a non-negligible part of global greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions,and it is a challenge for the world today to accurately estimate road traffic CO_(2)emissions and formulate effective emission reduction policies.Current emission inventories for vehicles have either low-resolution,or limited coverage,and they have not adequately focused on the CO_(2)emission produced by new energy vehicles(NEV)considering fuel life cycle.To fill the research gap,this paper proposed a framework of a high-resolution well-to-wheel(WTW)CO_(2)emission estimation for a full sample of vehicles and revealed the unique CO_(2)emission characteristics of different categories of vehicles combined with vehicle behavior.Based on this,the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of CO_(2)emissions were analyzed with the geographical and temporal weighted regression(GTWR)model.Finally,the CO_(2)emissions of vehicles under different scenarios are simulated to support the formulation of emission reduction policies.The results show that the distribution of vehicle CO_(2)emissions shows obvious heterogeneity in time,space,and vehicle category.By simply adjusting the existing NEV promotion policy,the emission reduction effect can be improved by 6.5%-13.5%under the same NEV penetration.If combined with changes in power generation structure,it can further release the emission reduction potential of NEVs,which can reduce the current CO_(2)emissions by 78.1%in the optimal scenario.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41601151Guangdong Natural Science Foundation,No.2016A030310149
文摘Data show that carbon emissions are increasing due to human energy consumption associated with economic development. As a result, a great deal of attention has been focused on efforts to reduce this growth in carbon emissions as well as to formulate policies to address and mitigate climate change. Although the majority of previous studies have explored the driving forces underlying Chinese carbon emissions, few have been carried out at the city-level because of the limited availability of relevant energy consumption statistics. Here, we utilize spatial autocorrelation, Markov-chain transitional matrices, a dynamic panel model, and system generalized distance estimation(Sys-GMM) to empirically evaluate the key determinants of carbon emissions at the city-level based on Chinese remote sensing data collected between 1992 and 2013. We also use these data to discuss observed spatial spillover effects taking into account spatiotemporal lag and a range of different geographical and economic weighting matrices. The results of this study suggest that regional discrepancies in city-level carbon emissions have decreased over time, which are consistent with a marked spatial spillover effect, and a ‘club' agglomeration of high-emissions. The evolution of these patterns also shows obvious path dependence, while the results of panel data analysis reveal the presence of a significant U-shaped relationship between carbon emissions and per capita GDP. Data also show that per capita carbon emissions have increased in concert with economic growth in most cities, and that a high-proportion of secondary industry and extensive investment growth have also exerted significant positive effects on city-level carbon emissions across China. In contrast, rapid population agglomeration, improvements in technology, increasing trade openness, and the accessibility and density of roads have all played a role in inhibiting carbon emissions. Thus, in order to reduce emissions, the Chinese government should legislate to inhibit the effects of factors that promote the release of carbon while at the same time acting to encourage those that mitigate this process. On the basis of the analysis presented in this study, we argue that optimizing industrial structures, streamlining extensive investment, increasing the level of technology, and improving road accessibility are all effective approaches to increase energy savings and reduce carbon emissions across China.