From Regional to Intercontinental Trade： The Successive European Trade Empires From the 16th to the 18thCentury in Asia

For a very long time, the areas available for continuous long-distance trade were limited to territories of Braudel＇s Mediterrande （1949）. Whatever the commercial organizations （merchants in the Roman or the Fatimid Empires, the Hanseatic League, the Florentine Companies） were, their trade was not able to directly handle branches more than a month＇s sailing from their main base （in the best conditions）. During the three centuries after Vasco de Gama had reached India, European trading areas dramatically expanded to the shores of Asia, and a long period of harsh competition set the East India Companies of the main European powers of the time against one another. What were the elements that allowed these companies to maintain transactions over such vast areas？ And why were some of these companies far more successful than the others？ A large set of secondary sources focusing on one company or on a particular aspect of trade （Chauduri, 1978; Israel, 1989; Subrahmanyan, 1993; Ames, 1996） exist, however, none of them treat their successive successes and failures. The aim of this paper is to briefly review these sources, to extract information from them and to compare the economic adaptations and innovations that allowed these companies to be the greatest of their time.

Simulating rise and fall cycles of Vietnam empires

The life cycle pattern of empires is pervasive worldwide,and this is caused by multiple factors.In the history of Vietnam,there are totally about ten empires or dynasties,which have aggregately lasted for more than one thousand years.Here,we apply the life cycle model and agent-based modeling to uncover the underlying mechanisms of the life cycle pattern for Vietnam empires.Macroscopically,the man-land relationship greatly shapes the life cycle pattern of traditional agricultural empires.The balancing process between land and population is critical for the empires.The relationship between incomes and costs has determined the actions or strategies of the social members or individuals.It suggests that our optimal solutions and simulations have perfectly matched the real history of Vietnam.Under three optimal solutions,the distributions of simulated and real empire durations in history can be well-matched,in terms of both discrete(histogram)and continuous forms(kernel density).It indicates that the history of human society is a dynamic process,which is determined by certain evolutionary rules and regulations.Therefore,we are able to back-calculate,simulate,and even predict the future of empires or countries.

Anisotropic time-dependent behaviors of shale under direct shearing and associated empirical creep models

Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,30°,45°,60°,and 90°),under multiple levels of direct shearing for the first time.The results show that the anisotropic creep of shale exhibits a significant stress-dependent behavior.Under a low shear stress,the creep compliance of shale increases linearly with the logarithm of time at all bedding orientations,and the increase depends on the bedding orientation and creep time.Under high shear stress conditions,the creep compliance of shale is minimal when the bedding orientation is 0°,and the steady-creep rate of shale increases significantly with increasing bedding orientations of 30°,45°,60°,and 90°.The stress-strain values corresponding to the inception of the accelerated creep stage show an increasing and then decreasing trend with the bedding orientation.A semilogarithmic model that could reflect the stress dependence of the steady-creep rate while considering the hardening and damage process is proposed.The model minimizes the deviation of the calculated steady-state creep rate from the observed value and reveals the behavior of the bedding orientation's influence on the steady-creep rate.The applicability of the five classical empirical creep models is quantitatively evaluated.It shows that the logarithmic model can well explain the experimental creep strain and creep rate,and it can accurately predict long-term shear creep deformation.Based on an improved logarithmic model,the variations in creep parameters with shear stress and bedding orientations are discussed.With abovementioned findings,a mathematical method for constructing an anisotropic shear creep model of shale is proposed,which can characterize the nonlinear dependence of the anisotropic shear creep behavior of shale on the bedding orientation.

基于CEEMDAN-HT的永磁同步电机匝间短路振动信号故障特征提取研究

由于长时间处于高负荷运行状态,永磁同步电机(permanent magnet synchronous motor, PMSM)定子绕组线圈匝与匝之间的绝缘性能容易降低,导致出现匝间短路,此时电机的振动强度会发生改变。针对此现象,提出将自适应噪声完备经验模态分解(complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise, CEEMDAN)与希尔伯特变换(Hilbert transform, HT)结合,构成一种CEEMDAN-HT非线性信号分析方法,并将其应用于提取振动信号故障特征。首先,利用CEEMDAN算法分解振动信号,得到一系列本征模态函数(intrinsic mode function, IMF),并将主元分析中的方差贡献率用于识别包含故障特征信息的IMF。其次,使用HT对方差贡献率较高的IMF进行分析,并以三维联合时频图呈现时间、瞬时频率与幅值,得到了主要故障特征。最后,使用ANSYS有限元软件建立了电机短路故障模型,并搭建了短路故障试验平台,通过对比有限元仿真结果与试验结果,对提出的方法进行了有效性和准确性验证。

Price prediction of power transformer materials based on CEEMD and GRU

The rapid growth of the Chinese economy has fueled the expansion of power grids.Power transformers are key equipment in power grid projects,and their price changes have a significant impact on cost control.However,the prices of power transformer materials manifest as nonsmooth and nonlinear sequences.Hence,estimating the acquisition costs of power grid projects is difficult,hindering the normal operation of power engineering construction.To more accurately predict the price of power transformer materials,this study proposes a method based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition(CEEMD)and gated recurrent unit(GRU)network.First,the CEEMD decomposed the price series into multiple intrinsic mode functions(IMFs).Multiple IMFs were clustered to obtain several aggregated sequences based on the sample entropy of each IMF.Then,an empirical wavelet transform(EWT)was applied to the aggregation sequence with a large sample entropy,and the multiple subsequences obtained from the decomposition were predicted by the GRU model.The GRU model was used to directly predict the aggregation sequences with a small sample entropy.In this study,we used authentic historical pricing data for power transformer materials to validate the proposed approach.The empirical findings demonstrated the efficacy of our method across both datasets,with mean absolute percentage errors(MAPEs)of less than 1%and 3%.This approach holds a significant reference value for future research in the field of power transformer material price prediction.

Spatio-temporal variability of surface chlorophyll a in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea based on reconstructions of satellite data of 2001-2020

Chlorophyll-a(Chl-a)concentration is a primary indicator for marine environmental monitoring.The spatio-temporal variations of sea surface Chl-a concentration in the Yellow Sea(YS)and the East China Sea(ECS)in 2001-2020 were investigated by reconstructing the MODIS Level 3 products with the data interpolation empirical orthogonal function(DINEOF)method.The reconstructed results by interpolating the combined MODIS daily+8-day datasets were found better than those merely by interpolating daily or 8-day data.Chl-a concentration in the YS and the ECS reached its maximum in spring,with blooms occurring,decreased in summer and autumn,and increased in late autumn and early winter.By performing empirical orthogonal function(EOF)decomposition of the reconstructed data fields and correlation analysis with several potential environmental factors,we found that the sea surface temperature(SST)plays a significant role in the seasonal variation of Chl a,especially during spring and summer.The increase of SST in spring and the upper-layer nutrients mixed up during the last winter might favor the occurrence of spring blooms.The high sea surface temperature(SST)throughout the summer would strengthen the vertical stratification and prevent nutrients supply from deep water,resulting in low surface Chl-a concentrations.The sea surface Chl-a concentration in the YS was found decreased significantly from 2012 to 2020,which was possibly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).

Interatomic Interaction Models for Magnetic Materials:Recent Advances

Atomistic modeling is a widely employed theoretical method of computational materials science.It has found particular utility in the study of magnetic materials.Initially,magnetic empirical interatomic potentials or spinpolarized density functional theory(DFT)served as the primary models for describing interatomic interactions in atomistic simulations of magnetic systems.Furthermore,in recent years,a new class of interatomic potentials known as magnetic machine-learning interatomic potentials(magnetic MLIPs)has emerged.These MLIPs combine the computational efficiency,in terms of CPU time,of empirical potentials with the accuracy of DFT calculations.In this review,our focus lies on providing a comprehensive summary of the interatomic interaction models developed specifically for investigating magnetic materials.We also delve into the various problem classes to which these models can be applied.Finally,we offer insights into the future prospects of interatomic interaction model development for the exploration of magnetic materials.

Mechanical response and dilatancy characteristics of deep marble under different stress paths:A sight from energy dissipation

Dilatancy is a fundamental volumetric growth behavior observed during loading and serves as a key index to comprehending the intricate nonlinear behavior and constitutive equation structure of rock.This study focuses on Jinping marble obtained from the Jinping Underground Laboratory in China at a depth of 2400 m.Various uniaxial and triaxial tests at different strain rates,along with constant confining pressure tests and reduced confining pressure tests under different confining pressures were conducted to analyze the mechanical response and dilatancy characteristics of the marble under four stress paths.Subsequently,a new empirical dilatancy coefficient is proposed based on the energy dissipation method.The results show that brittle failure characteristics of marble under uniaxial compression are more obvious with the strain rate increasing,and plastic failure characteristics of marble under triaxial compression are gradually strengthened.Furthermore,compared to the constant confining pressure,the volume expansion is relatively lower under unloading condition.The energy dissipation is closely linked to the process of dilatancy,with a rapid increase of dissipated energy coinciding with the beginning of dilatancy.A new empirical dilatancy coefficient is defined according to the change trend of energy dissipation rate curve,of which change trend is consistent with the actual dilatancy response in marble under different stress paths.The existing empirical and theoretical dilatancy models are analyzed,which shows that the empirical dilatancy coefficient based on the energy background is more universal.

Assessment of the three representative empirical models for zenith tropospheric delay(ZTD)using the CMONOC data

The precise correction of atmospheric zenith tropospheric delay(ZTD)is significant for the Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)performance regarding positioning accuracy and convergence time.In the past decades,many empirical ZTD models based on whether the gridded or scattered ZTD products have been proposed and widely used in the GNSS positioning applications.But there is no comprehensive evaluation of these models for the whole China region,which features complicated topography and climate.In this study,we completely assess the typical empirical models,the IGGtropSH model(gridded,non-meteorology),the SHAtropE model(scattered,non-meteorology),and the GPT3 model(gridded,meteorology)using the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China(CMONOC)network.In general,the results show that the three models share consistent performance with RMSE/bias of 37.45/1.63,37.13/2.20,and 38.27/1.34 mm for the GPT3,SHAtropE and IGGtropSH model,respectively.However,the models had a distinct performance regarding geographical distribution,elevation,seasonal variations,and daily variation.In the southeastern region of China,RMSE values are around 50 mm,which are much higher than that in the western region,approximately 20 mm.The SHAtropE model exhibits better performance for areas with large variations in elevation.The GPT3 model and the IGGtropSH model are more stable across different months,and the SHAtropE model based on the GNSS data exhibits superior performance across various UTC epochs.

Empirical likelihood for spatial cross-sectional data models with matrix exponential spatial specification

In this paper,we study spatial cross-sectional data models in the form of matrix exponential spatial specification(MESS),where MESS appears in both dependent and error terms.The empirical likelihood(EL)ratio statistics are established for the parameters of the MESS model.It is shown that the limiting distributions of EL ratio statistics follow chi-square distributions,which are used to construct the confidence regions of model parameters.Simulation experiments are conducted to compare the performances of confidence regions based on EL method and normal approximation method.

Spatial and Temporal Differences of Climate Suitability of Ice and Snow Sports in Major Ski Tourism Destinations in China

Ice and snow tourism in China has grown significantly since the country successfully hosted the Beijing Winter Olympics.Climatic conditions profoundly impact the development of ice and snow tourism;however,most studies have focused on constructing different climate suitability indicators for ice and snow tourism to evaluate individual regions,lacking horizontal comparative studies across multiple regions.This study aims to enrich the connotation of climate suitability for ice and snow sports,establish an evaluation model based on snowfall amount,temperature,and wind speed,and use daily meteorological data from 1991 to 2021 to horizontally compare the climate suitability for ice and snow sports in major ski tourism destinations in China.This study boasts four major findings:1)the average ice and snow sports climate index of each region decreases over time,and the overall suitability of the climate for ice and snow sports is reducing;2)northern Xinjiang exhibits the most evident regional differentiation from‘very suitable’to‘generally suitable’;3)the spatial zoning of climate suitability for ice and snow sports exhibits heterogeneity,as northern Xinjiang is divided into two‘suitable and above’zones with rotating empirical orthogonal function(REOF).Correspondingly,the four provinces of Hebei,Heilongjiang,Jilin,and Liaoning are divided into three‘generally suitable and above’zones;4)snowfall amount is the main factor affecting the climate suitability of ice and snow sports in the major ski tourist destinations in China.

Research on the longitudinal protection of a through-type cophase traction direct power supply system based on the empirical wavelet transform

This paper proposes a longitudinal protection scheme utilizing empirical wavelet transform(EWT)for a through-type cophase traction direct power supply system,where both sides of a traction network line exhibit a distinctive boundary structure.This approach capitalizes on the boundary’s capacity to attenuate the high-frequency component of fault signals,resulting in a variation in the high-frequency transient energy ratio when faults occur inside or outside the line.During internal line faults,the high-frequency transient energy at the checkpoints located at both ends surpasses that of its neighboring lines.Conversely,for faults external to the line,the energy is lower compared to adjacent lines.EWT is employed to decompose the collected fault current signals,allowing access to the high-frequency transient energy.The longitudinal protection for the traction network line is established based on disparities between both ends of the traction network line and the high-frequency transient energy on either side of the boundary.Moreover,simulation verification through experimental results demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed protection scheme across various initial fault angles,distances to faults,and fault transition resistances.

An Enhanced Ensemble-Based Long Short-Term Memory Approach for Traffic Volume Prediction

With the advancement of artificial intelligence,traffic forecasting is gaining more and more interest in optimizing route planning and enhancing service quality.Traffic volume is an influential parameter for planning and operating traffic structures.This study proposed an improved ensemble-based deep learning method to solve traffic volume prediction problems.A set of optimal hyperparameters is also applied for the suggested approach to improve the performance of the learning process.The fusion of these methodologies aims to harness ensemble empirical mode decomposition’s capacity to discern complex traffic patterns and long short-term memory’s proficiency in learning temporal relationships.Firstly,a dataset for automatic vehicle identification is obtained and utilized in the preprocessing stage of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition model.The second aspect involves predicting traffic volume using the long short-term memory algorithm.Next,the study employs a trial-and-error approach to select a set of optimal hyperparameters,including the lookback window,the number of neurons in the hidden layers,and the gradient descent optimization.Finally,the fusion of the obtained results leads to a final traffic volume prediction.The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms other benchmarks regarding various evaluation measures,including mean absolute error,root mean squared error,mean absolute percentage error,and R-squared.The achieved R-squared value reaches an impressive 98%,while the other evaluation indices surpass the competing.These findings highlight the accuracy of traffic pattern prediction.Consequently,this offers promising prospects for enhancing transportation management systems and urban infrastructure planning.

Spatiotemporal variations of parameters of internal solitary waves in the northern South China Sea

The dynamic parameters for internal solitary waves(ISWs)derived from the extended Korteweg-de Vries(eKdV)equation play an important role in the understanding and prediction of ISWs.The spatiotemporal variations of the dynamic parameters of the ISWs in the northern South China Sea(SCS)were studied based on the reanalysis of long-term temperature and salinity datasets.The results for spectrum analysis show that there are definite geographical differences for the periodic variation of the parameters:in shallow water,all parameters vary with a wave period of one year,while in deep water wave components of the parameters at other frequencies exist.Using wavelet analysis,the wavelet power spectral densities in deep water exhibited an inter-annual variation pattern.For example,the wave component of the dispersion coefficient with a wave period of about half a year reached its power peak once every two years.Based on previous work,this inter-annual variation pattern was deduced to be caused by dynamic processes.In further work on the regulatory mechanisms,empirical orthogonal function(EOF)decomposition was performed.It was found that the modes of the dispersion coefficient have different geographical distributions,explaining the reason why the wave components in different frequencies appeared in different locations.The numerical simulation results confirm that the variations in the parameters of the ISWs derived from the eKdV equation could affect the waveforms significantly because of changes in the polarity of the ISWs.Therefore,the periodic variations of the dynamic parameters are related to the geographical location because of dynamic processes operating.

基于EEMD、相关系数、排列熵和小波阈值去噪的新型水下声学信号去噪方法

The complexities of the marine environment and the unique characteristics of underwater channels pose challenges in obtaining reliable signals underwater,necessitating the filtration of underwater acoustic noise.Herein,an underwater acoustic signal denoising method based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD),correlation coefficient(CC),permutation entropy(PE),and wavelet threshold denoising(WTD)is proposed.Furthermore,simulation experiments are conducted using simulated and real underwater acoustic data.The experimental results reveal that the proposed denoising method outperforms other previous methods in terms of signal-to-noise ratio,root mean square error,and CC.The proposed method eliminates noise and retains valuable information in the signal.

Incorporating empirical knowledge into data-driven variable selection for quantitative analysis of coal ash content by laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy

Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy(LIBS)has become a widely used atomic spectroscopic technique for rapid coal analysis.However,the vast amount of spectral information in LIBS contains signal uncertainty,which can affect its quantification performance.In this work,we propose a hybrid variable selection method to improve the performance of LIBS quantification.Important variables are first identified using Pearson's correlation coefficient,mutual information,least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)and random forest,and then filtered and combined with empirical variables related to fingerprint elements of coal ash content.Subsequently,these variables are fed into a partial least squares regression(PLSR).Additionally,in some models,certain variables unrelated to ash content are removed manually to study the impact of variable deselection on model performance.The proposed hybrid strategy was tested on three LIBS datasets for quantitative analysis of coal ash content and compared with the corresponding data-driven baseline method.It is significantly better than the variable selection only method based on empirical knowledge and in most cases outperforms the baseline method.The results showed that on all three datasets the hybrid strategy for variable selection combining empirical knowledge and data-driven algorithms achieved the lowest root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP)values of 1.605,3.478 and 1.647,respectively,which were significantly lower than those obtained from multiple linear regression using only 12 empirical variables,which are 1.959,3.718 and 2.181,respectively.The LASSO-PLSR model with empirical support and 20 selected variables exhibited a significantly improved performance after variable deselection,with RMSEP values dropping from 1.635,3.962 and 1.647 to 1.483,3.086 and 1.567,respectively.Such results demonstrate that using empirical knowledge as a support for datadriven variable selection can be a viable approach to improve the accuracy and reliability of LIBS quantification.

Anisotropic shearing mechanism of Kangding slate:Experimental investigation and numerical analysis

The shear mechanical behavior is regarded as an essential factor affecting the stability of the surrounding rocks in underground engineering.The shear strength and failure mechanisms of layered rock are significantly affected by the foliation angles.Direct shear tests were conducted on cubic slate samples with foliation angles of 0°,30°,45°,60°,and 90°.The effect of foliation angles on failure patterns,acoustic emission(AE)characteristics,and shear strength parameters was analyzed.Based on AE characteristics,the slate failure process could be divided into four stages:quiet period,step-like increasing period,dramatic increasing period,and remission period.A new empirical expression of cohesion for layered rock was proposed,which was compared with linear and sinusoidal cohesion expressions based on the results made by this paper and previous experiments.The comparative analysis demonstrated that the new expression has better prediction ability than other expressions.The proposed empirical equation was used for direct shear simulations with the combined finite-discrete element method(FDEM),and it was found to align well with the experimental results.Considering both computational efficiency and accuracy,it was recommended to use a shear rate of 0.01 m/s for FDEM to carry out direct shear simulations.To balance the relationship between the number of elements and the simulation results in the direct shear simulations,the recommended element size is 1 mm.

Long-term ocean temperature trend and marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves(MHWs)can cause irreversible damage to marine ecosystems and livelihoods.Appropriate MHW characterization remains difficult,because the choice of a sea surface temperature(SST)temporal baseline strongly influences MHW identification.Following a recent work suggesting that there should be a communicating baseline for long-term ocean temperature trends(LTT)and MHWs,we provided an effective and quantitative solution to calculate LTT and MHWs simultaneously by using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)method.The long-term nonlinear trend of SST obtained by EEMD shows superiority over the traditional linear trend in that the data extension does not alter prior results.The MHWs identified from the detrended SST data exhibited low sensitivity to the baseline choice,demonstrating the robustness of our method.We also derived the total heat exposure(THE)by combining LTT and MHWs.The THE was sensitive to the fixed-period baseline choice,with a response to increasing SST that depended on the onset time of a perpetual MHW state(identified MHW days equal to the year length).Subtropical areas,the Indian Ocean,and part of the Southern Ocean were most sensitive to the long-term global warming trend.

Research on Early Warning of Banking Crises from the Perspective of Credit Structures

The relationship between credit expansion and banking crises is complex and cannot be fully explained by total credit alone.A systematic analysis of the relationship between the amount and structure of total credit and banking crises is important for an objective prediction of the influence of potential financial risks.This paper,drawing on data from 15 selected countries,delves into the power of credit indicators in the early warning of banking crises from the perspectives of industrial structure,sector structure,and term structure of credit.Various machine learning methods were used,including Logistic Regression,Random Forest,Decision Tree,Support Vector Machine(SVM),Bagging,and Boosting models.The empirical findings indicate that credit expansion plays a crucial role in triggering banking crises.However,total credit is better suited for the early warning of short-term banking crises,whereas credit structure is more useful for the early warning of long-term banking crises.Moreover,in an early warning system,identifying key early warning indicators is more meaningful than merely increasing the number of indicators.Machine learning can somewhat enhance the early warning power,but it may not always be robust.Therefore,more attention should be paid to potential systemic banking crises resulting from an imbalance in credit structure while regulating the total credit threshold.

Fault DiagnosisMethod of Energy Storage Unit of Circuit Breakers Based on EWT-ISSA-BP

Aiming at the problem of energy storage unit failure in the spring operating mechanism of low voltage circuit breakers(LVCBs).A fault diagnosis algorithm based on an improved Sparrow Search Algorithm(ISSA)optimized Backpropagation Neural Network(BPNN)is proposed to improve the operational safety of LVCB.Taking the 1.5kV/4000A/75kA LVCB as an example.According to the current operating characteristics of the energy storage motor,fault characteristics are extracted based on Empirical Wavelet Transform(EWT).Traditional BPNN has problems such as difficulty adjusting network weights and thresholds,being sensitive to initial weights,and quickly falling into local optimal solutions.The Sparrow Search Algorithm(SSA)with self-adjusting weight factors combined with bidirectional mutations is added to optimize the selection of BPNN hyperparameters.The results show that the ISSA-BPNN can accurately and quickly distinguish six conditions of motor voltage reduction:motor voltage increase,motor voltage decrease,energy storage spring stuck,transmission gear stuck,regular state and energy storage spring not locked.It is suitable for fault diagnosis and detection of the energy storage part of LVCB.