BRI’s Employment Effect on Participating Countries and Mechanism Analysis

Based on the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper uses panel data from 124 countries between 2006 and 2019 to build a difference-in-differences(DID)model to investigate the BRI employment effect on participating countries and mechanisms.We observed that the BRI had significantly increased employment rates in participating countries,and that this result remained robust after using the instrumental variable(IV)to mitigate endogeneity and perform a robustness test.There are differences in the BRI’s employment effect depending on the income level,labor conditions,and the digital economy’s development level of BRI countries:compared with low-income countries and lower-middle-income countries,the BRI has a more significantly positive effect on the employment rates of upper-middle-income and high-income countries;the BRI’s employment effect is stronger in countries with higher labor market efficiencies and better labor relations;In countries with higher levels of digital economy,the BRI has a relatively greater positive effect on employment.The BRI has increased employment rates in participating countries on both the supply and demand sides by building infrastructure,interconnecting industries and resources,and improving human capital through the exchange of human resources.Further analysis suggests that the BRI’s employment effect promotes the sophistication of participating countries’employment structures,hence improving employment quality,and that participating countries’employment levels may continue to improve in the medium and long run.

Employment Effects of Minimum Wage Regulation and Cross Effect of the Employment Contracts Law

Non-linear programming analysis suggests that employment effects of minimum wage regulation are the result not only of the regulation itself but also of the external regulatory environment. At a certain level, the regulatory environment intensifies the effect on employment of minimum wage regulation. Empirical studies based on survey data from 439 enterprises in Guangdong and Fujian show that minimum wage rises had a greater impact on the employment of rural migrant workers in 2008 than in 2007, although no significant change was observed among workers who were permanent urban residents. Further analysis shows that the greater impact on migrant workers derives mainly from the strengthened regulatory environment brought about by the Employment Contracts Law. The permanent urban workforce has not been similarly affected because their interests have been given priority under the dual employment system. This reminds us that the employment effects of the Employment Contracts Law may be realized indirectly through other regulatory measures, including strengthened minimum wage regulation.

Economic and employment effects of China's power transition based on input‒output and scenario simulation

With high carbon emission,the low-carbon transition of power sector will be critical for China to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.The power transition will have an impact on the economy and employment through the value chain.Quantifying the impact is important for China's future energy and welfare policies.This study adopts input‒output model to analyze the impact on economy and employment based on accelerated and slow power transition scenarios.The results show that the low-carbon power transition will have a negative impact on coal power and coal mining and washing sectors,while a positive impact on machine manufacturing and equipment sector.Low-carbon power transition will have a positive economic and employment effect to promote inclusive growth.By 2060,economic output will increase by about 8.50 trillion CNY,value-added by about 3.39 trillion CNY,and employment will increase by about 3.74 million.Although slower coal power transition can stabilize the economic and employment effect in the short and medium run,accelerating the power transition will produce more positive effect and lower job losses by coal power in the long run.By 2060,accelerating transition will boost output by 8.21%,value-added by 8.20%and jobs by 7.97%.Accordingly,the government should establish an all-round just low-carbon transition mechanism.

Employment Effect of the Resource-abundant Industrial Cluster in Southwestern Region of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China——A Case of Chongzuo City

Taking Chongzuo City of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region as an example, the employment effect of the resource-abundant industrial cluster in southwestern Guangxi Province is analyzed according to the data from the Chongzuo Statistical Yearbook , Guangxi Statistical Yearbook from 2003 to 2008 and the data from the relevant sections of Chongzuo City, and the four employment effects of industrial cluster--the spatial expansion effect of employment chain, optimizing effect of employment structure, the multiplier effect of employment absorption and the effect of improving the quality of labors and the degree of the intensity of employment and location quotient of employment. Results show that the employment absorption of sugar industry in Chongzuo City is stable and upward slightly, and it shows strong employment effect; the sugar industry in Chongzuo is not only competitive, but also has a great share of market in employment, so it owns strong absorption of employment. The countermeasures for improving the employment level of resource-abundant and industrial cluster in southwest of Guangxi Province are put forward, including elongating industrial chain and widening employment space; strengthening various kinds of formal and informal training to improve the employment capability of laborers; laying stress on industrial structure and optimizing the employment structure; strengthening the construction of the industrial economic zone towards ASEAN(Association of Southeast Asian Nations), and fully displaying the regional advantages of the offshore border.