This study estimates job creation from Costa Rica's transition to net-zero emissions by 2050,contrasting it with a business-as-usual scenario(BAU)using employment multipliers from Costa Rica's input-output mat...This study estimates job creation from Costa Rica's transition to net-zero emissions by 2050,contrasting it with a business-as-usual scenario(BAU)using employment multipliers from Costa Rica's input-output matrix.The model is soft-linked with a bottom-up technology-rich regional model of the CLEW sectors in Costa Rica.A robust decision-making-inspired approach is taken to assess the effects of uncertainty on the estimations.The study addresses a literature gap in modeling subnational employment while accounting for long-term uncertainty and allows to identify economic activities affected by the transformation,so that policies regarding a just transition can be properly developed and stakeholders incentivized to take active participation in the process.Under baseline assumptions,a net-zero economy would have 135 thousand more jobs by 2050 than the BAU,equivalent to 7%of the employed population in 2017.Energy-related jobs would triple by mid-21st century,and regions capitalizing on renewables would perceive the highest gain.When considering uncertainty,the net jobs range between 35-750 thousand.Since net positive outcomes in terms of jobs are feasible,global governance should focus efforts on policies that enhance these.展开更多
基金supported by the French Development Agency (AML-2021-0290)。
文摘This study estimates job creation from Costa Rica's transition to net-zero emissions by 2050,contrasting it with a business-as-usual scenario(BAU)using employment multipliers from Costa Rica's input-output matrix.The model is soft-linked with a bottom-up technology-rich regional model of the CLEW sectors in Costa Rica.A robust decision-making-inspired approach is taken to assess the effects of uncertainty on the estimations.The study addresses a literature gap in modeling subnational employment while accounting for long-term uncertainty and allows to identify economic activities affected by the transformation,so that policies regarding a just transition can be properly developed and stakeholders incentivized to take active participation in the process.Under baseline assumptions,a net-zero economy would have 135 thousand more jobs by 2050 than the BAU,equivalent to 7%of the employed population in 2017.Energy-related jobs would triple by mid-21st century,and regions capitalizing on renewables would perceive the highest gain.When considering uncertainty,the net jobs range between 35-750 thousand.Since net positive outcomes in terms of jobs are feasible,global governance should focus efforts on policies that enhance these.
