Anisotropic time-dependent behaviors of shale under direct shearing and associated empirical creep models

Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,30°,45°,60°,and 90°),under multiple levels of direct shearing for the first time.The results show that the anisotropic creep of shale exhibits a significant stress-dependent behavior.Under a low shear stress,the creep compliance of shale increases linearly with the logarithm of time at all bedding orientations,and the increase depends on the bedding orientation and creep time.Under high shear stress conditions,the creep compliance of shale is minimal when the bedding orientation is 0°,and the steady-creep rate of shale increases significantly with increasing bedding orientations of 30°,45°,60°,and 90°.The stress-strain values corresponding to the inception of the accelerated creep stage show an increasing and then decreasing trend with the bedding orientation.A semilogarithmic model that could reflect the stress dependence of the steady-creep rate while considering the hardening and damage process is proposed.The model minimizes the deviation of the calculated steady-state creep rate from the observed value and reveals the behavior of the bedding orientation's influence on the steady-creep rate.The applicability of the five classical empirical creep models is quantitatively evaluated.It shows that the logarithmic model can well explain the experimental creep strain and creep rate,and it can accurately predict long-term shear creep deformation.Based on an improved logarithmic model,the variations in creep parameters with shear stress and bedding orientations are discussed.With abovementioned findings,a mathematical method for constructing an anisotropic shear creep model of shale is proposed,which can characterize the nonlinear dependence of the anisotropic shear creep behavior of shale on the bedding orientation.

Effects of mesenchymal stem cell on dopaminergic neurons,motor and memory functions in animal models of Parkinson's disease:a systematic review and meta-analysis

Parkinson’s disease is chara cterized by the loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars com pacta,and although restoring striatal dopamine levels may improve symptoms,no treatment can cure or reve rse the disease itself.Stem cell therapy has a regenerative effect and is being actively studied as a candidate for the treatment of Parkinson’s disease.Mesenchymal stem cells are considered a promising option due to fewer ethical concerns,a lower risk of immune rejection,and a lower risk of teratogenicity.We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the therapeutic effects of mesenchymal stem cells and their derivatives on motor function,memory,and preservation of dopamine rgic neurons in a Parkinson’s disease animal model.We searched bibliographic databases(PubMed/MEDLINE,Embase,CENTRAL,Scopus,and Web of Science)to identify articles and included only pee r-reviewed in vivo interve ntional animal studies published in any language through J une 28,2023.The study utilized the random-effect model to estimate the 95%confidence intervals(CI)of the standard mean differences(SMD)between the treatment and control groups.We use the systematic review center for laboratory animal expe rimentation’s risk of bias tool and the collaborative approach to meta-analysis and review of animal studies checklist for study quality assessment.A total of 33studies with data from 840 Parkinson’s disease model animals were included in the meta-analysis.Treatment with mesenchymal stem cells significantly improved motor function as assessed by the amphetamine-induced rotational test.Among the stem cell types,the bone marrow MSCs with neurotrophic factor group showed la rgest effect size(SMD[95%CI]=-6.21[-9.50 to-2.93],P=0.0001,I^(2)=0.0%).The stem cell treatment group had significantly more tyrosine hydroxylase positive dopamine rgic neurons in the striatum([95%CI]=1.04[0.59 to 1.49],P=0.0001,I^(2)=65.1%)and substantia nigra(SMD[95%CI]=1.38[0.89 to 1.87],P=0.0001,I^(2)=75.3%),indicating a protective effect on dopaminergic neurons.Subgroup analysis of the amphetamine-induced rotation test showed a significant reduction only in the intracranial-striatum route(SMD[95%CI]=-2.59[-3.25 to-1.94],P=0.0001,I^(2)=74.4%).The memory test showed significant improvement only in the intravenous route(SMD[95%CI]=4.80[1.84 to 7.76],P=0.027,I^(2)=79.6%).Mesenchymal stem cells have been shown to positively impact motor function and memory function and protect dopaminergic neurons in preclinical models of Parkinson’s disease.Further research is required to determine the optimal stem cell types,modifications,transplanted cell numbe rs,and delivery methods for these protocols.

Assessing the Performance of CMIP6 Models in Simulating Droughts across Global Drylands

Both the attribution of historical change and future projections of droughts rely heavily on climate modeling. However,reasonable drought simulations have remained a challenge, and the related performances of the current state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6) models remain unknown. Here, both the strengths and weaknesses of CMIP6 models in simulating droughts and corresponding hydrothermal conditions in drylands are assessed.While the general patterns of simulated meteorological elements in drylands resemble the observations, the annual precipitation is overestimated by ~33%(with a model spread of 2.3%–77.2%), along with an underestimation of potential evapotranspiration(PET) by ~32%(17.5%–47.2%). The water deficit condition, measured by the difference between precipitation and PET, is 50%(29.1%–71.7%) weaker than observations. The CMIP6 models show weaknesses in capturing the climate mean drought characteristics in drylands, particularly with the occurrence and duration largely underestimated in the hyperarid Afro-Asian areas. Nonetheless, the drought-associated meteorological anomalies, including reduced precipitation, warmer temperatures, higher evaporative demand, and increased water deficit conditions, are reasonably reproduced. The simulated magnitude of precipitation(water deficit) associated with dryland droughts is overestimated by 28%(24%) compared to observations. The observed increasing trends in drought fractional area,occurrence, and corresponding meteorological anomalies during 1980–2014 are reasonably reproduced. Still, the increase in drought characteristics, associated precipitation and water deficit are obviously underestimated after the late 1990s,especially for mild and moderate droughts, indicative of a weaker response of dryland drought changes to global warming in CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that it is imperative to employ bias correction approaches in drought-related studies over drylands by using CMIP6 outputs.

Genetically modified non-human primate models for research on neurodegenerative diseases

Neurodegenerative diseases(NDs)are a group of debilitating neurological disorders that primarily affect elderly populations and include Alzheimer's disease(AD),Parkinson's disease(PD),Huntington's disease(HD),and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis(ALS).Currently,there are no therapies available that can delay,stop,or reverse the pathological progression of NDs in clinical settings.As the population ages,NDs are imposing a huge burden on public health systems and affected families.Animal models are important tools for preclinical investigations to understand disease pathogenesis and test potential treatments.While numerous rodent models of NDs have been developed to enhance our understanding of disease mechanisms,the limited success of translating findings from animal models to clinical practice suggests that there is still a need to bridge this translation gap.Old World nonhuman primates(NHPs),such as rhesus,cynomolgus,and vervet monkeys,are phylogenetically,physiologically,biochemically,and behaviorally most relevant to humans.This is particularly evident in the similarity of the structure and function of their central nervous systems,rendering such species uniquely valuable for neuroscience research.Recently,the development of several genetically modified NHP models of NDs has successfully recapitulated key pathologies and revealed novel mechanisms.This review focuses on the efficacy of NHPs in modeling NDs and the novel pathological insights gained,as well as the challenges associated with the generation of such models and the complexities involved in their subsequent analysis.

Large animal models for Huntington's disease research

Huntington'sdisease(HD)isahereditary neurodegenerative disorder for which there is currently no effectivetreatmentavailable.Consequently,the development of appropriate disease models is critical to thoroughly investigate disease progression.The genetic basis of HD involves the abnormal expansion of CAG repeats in the huntingtin(HTT)gene,leading to the expansion of a polyglutamine repeat in the HTT protein.Mutant HTT carrying the expanded polyglutamine repeat undergoes misfolding and forms aggregates in the brain,which precipitate selective neuronal loss in specific brain regions.Animal models play an important role in elucidating the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative disorders such as HD and in identifying potential therapeutic targets.Due to the marked species differences between rodents and larger animals,substantial efforts have been directed toward establishing large animal models for HD research.These models are pivotal for advancing the discovery of novel therapeutic targets,enhancing effective drug delivery methods,and improving treatment outcomes.We have explored the advantages of utilizing large animal models,particularly pigs,in previous reviews.Since then,however,significant progress has been made in developing more sophisticated animal models that faithfully replicate the typical pathology of HD.In the current review,we provide a comprehensive overview of large animal models of HD,incorporating recent findings regarding the establishment of HD knock-in(KI)pigs and their genetic therapy.We also explore the utilization of large animal models in HD research,with a focus on sheep,non-human primates(NHPs),and pigs.Our objective is to provide valuable insights into the application of these large animal models for the investigation and treatment of neurodegenerative disorders.

Genetically modified pigs:Emerging animal models for hereditary hearing loss

Hereditary hearing loss(HHL),a genetic disorder that impairs auditory function,significantly affects quality of life and incurs substantial economic losses for society.To investigate the underlying causes of HHL and evaluate therapeutic outcomes,appropriate animal models are necessary.Pigs have been extensively used as valuable large animal models in biomedical research.In this review,we highlight the advantages of pig models in terms of ear anatomy,inner ear morphology,and electrophysiological characteristics,as well as recent advancements in the development of distinct genetically modified porcine models of hearing loss.Additionally,we discuss the prospects,challenges,and recommendations regarding the use pig models in HHL research.Overall,this review provides insights and perspectives for future studies on HHL using porcine models.

Fractal Fractional Order Operators in Computational Techniques for Mathematical Models in Epidemiology

New fractional operators, the COVID-19 model has been studied in this paper. By using different numericaltechniques and the time fractional parameters, the mechanical characteristics of the fractional order model areidentified. The uniqueness and existence have been established. Themodel’sUlam-Hyers stability analysis has beenfound. In order to justify the theoretical results, numerical simulations are carried out for the presented methodin the range of fractional order to show the implications of fractional and fractal orders.We applied very effectivenumerical techniques to obtain the solutions of themodel and simulations. Also, we present conditions of existencefor a solution to the proposed epidemicmodel and to calculate the reproduction number in certain state conditionsof the analyzed dynamic system. COVID-19 fractional order model for the case of Wuhan, China, is offered foranalysis with simulations in order to determine the possible efficacy of Coronavirus disease transmission in theCommunity. For this reason, we employed the COVID-19 fractal fractional derivative model in the example ofWuhan, China, with the given beginning conditions. In conclusion, again the mathematical models with fractionaloperators can facilitate the improvement of decision-making for measures to be taken in the management of anepidemic situation.

Neurophysiological, histological, and behavioral characterization of animal models of distraction spinal cord injury: a systematic review

Distraction spinal cord injury is caused by some degree of distraction or longitudinal tension on the spinal cord and commonly occurs in patients who undergo corrective operation for severe spinal deformity.With the increased degree and duration of distraction,spinal cord injuries become more serious in terms of their neurophysiology,histology,and behavior.Very few studies have been published on the specific characteristics of distraction spinal cord injury.In this study,we systematically review 22 related studies involving animal models of distraction spinal cord injury,focusing particularly on the neurophysiological,histological,and behavioral characteristics of this disease.In addition,we summarize the mechanisms underlying primary and secondary injuries caused by distraction spinal cord injury and clarify the effects of different degrees and durations of distraction on the primary injuries associated with spinal cord injury.We provide new concepts for the establishment of a model of distraction spinal cord injury and related basic research,and provide reference guidelines for the clinical diagnosis and treatment of this disease.

Distinct molecular targets of ProEGCG from EGCG and superior inhibition of angiogenesis signaling pathways for treatment of endometriosis

Endometriosis is a common chronic gynecological disease with endometrial cell implantation outside the uterus.Angiogenesis is a major pathophysiology in endometriosis.Our previous studies have demonstrated that the prodrug of epigallocatechin gallate(ProEGCG)exhibits superior anti-endometriotic and anti-angiogenic effects compared to epigallocatechin gallate(EGCG).However,their direct binding targets and underlying mechanisms for the differential effects remain unknown.In this study,we demonstrated that oral ProEGCG can be effective in preventing and treating endometriosis.Additionally,1D and 2D Proteome Integral Solubility Alteration assay-based chemical proteomics identified metadherin(MTDH)and PX domain containing serine/threonine kinase-like(PXK)as novel binding targets of EGCG and ProEGCG,respectively.Computational simulation and BioLayer interferometry were used to confirm their binding affinity.Our results showed that MTDH-EGCG inhibited protein kinase B(Akt)-mediated angiogenesis,while PXK-ProEGCG inhibited epidermal growth factor(EGF)-mediated angiogenesis via the EGF/hypoxia-inducible factor(HIF-1a)/vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF)pathway.In vitro and in vivo knockdown assays and microvascular network imaging further confirmed the involvement of these signaling pathways.Moreover,our study demonstrated that ProEGCG has superior therapeutic effects than EGCG by targeting distinct signal transduction pathways and may act as a novel antiangiogenic therapy for endometriosis.

Endometriosis beyond the Pelvis: A Case Series of Cutaneous Endometriosis and Literature Review

Introduction: Cutaneous endometriosis is an uncommon but well-known skin disorder that represents about 0.5% to 1% of all endometriosis. The objective of this case series is to report clinical presentation, diagnosis, and management of various forms of cutaneous endometriosis. Material and Methods: It was an observational, retrospective and descriptive review of cases presenting with cutaneous endometriosis among Cameroonian women managed at the gynaecological outpatient department of Yaounde Gynaeco-Obstetric and Pediatric Hospital. All the following parameters were analysed: age, parity, previous pelvic surgery, presenting symptoms and duration, associated symptoms, localizations, imaging, size of the lesion, other localization of endometriosis, management and histopathological results. Results: we reported 4 cases of cutaneous endometriosis, with 3 umbilical endometriosis and 1 abdominal scar endometriosis. Patient age ranged from 28 to 39 years with an average of 33 years. All patients described infertility (two primary and two secondary) and two had a history of abdominal surgery. All patients presented local cyclical signs such as pain, swelling, color change and bleeding. The duration of symptoms varied from 2 to 3 years and the size of lesions ranged from 2 to 3.5 cm for umbilical lesions and was 9 cm for abdominal scar endometriosis. In all cases, no imaging was required for the diagnosis, which was suspected on the basis of patient’s history and the cyclical nature of local signs, followed by wide surgical excision and confirmation on histopathology. Conclusion: Cutaneaous endometriosis is a rare benign condition. Umbilical endometriosis seems to be the main cutaneous localization and can be described as primary or secondary. Even if its diagnosis must be confirmed by histopathology, it should be considered in patient with cutaneous cyclic signs such as pain, swelling or bleeding with or without history of abdominal surgery.

Use of machine learning models for the prognostication of liver transplantation: A systematic review

BACKGROUND Liver transplantation(LT)is a life-saving intervention for patients with end-stage liver disease.However,the equitable allocation of scarce donor organs remains a formidable challenge.Prognostic tools are pivotal in identifying the most suitable transplant candidates.Traditionally,scoring systems like the model for end-stage liver disease have been instrumental in this process.Nevertheless,the landscape of prognostication is undergoing a transformation with the integration of machine learning(ML)and artificial intelligence models.AIM To assess the utility of ML models in prognostication for LT,comparing their performance and reliability to established traditional scoring systems.METHODS Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines,we conducted a thorough and standardized literature search using the PubMed/MEDLINE database.Our search imposed no restrictions on publication year,age,or gender.Exclusion criteria encompassed non-English studies,review articles,case reports,conference papers,studies with missing data,or those exhibiting evident methodological flaws.RESULTS Our search yielded a total of 64 articles,with 23 meeting the inclusion criteria.Among the selected studies,60.8%originated from the United States and China combined.Only one pediatric study met the criteria.Notably,91%of the studies were published within the past five years.ML models consistently demonstrated satisfactory to excellent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values(ranging from 0.6 to 1)across all studies,surpassing the performance of traditional scoring systems.Random forest exhibited superior predictive capabilities for 90-d mortality following LT,sepsis,and acute kidney injury(AKI).In contrast,gradient boosting excelled in predicting the risk of graft-versus-host disease,pneumonia,and AKI.CONCLUSION This study underscores the potential of ML models in guiding decisions related to allograft allocation and LT,marking a significant evolution in the field of prognostication.

Comparison of ovarian preservation versus oophorectomy on fertility outcomes in patients with endometriosis post-laparoscopic surgery:A prospective study

BACKGROUND Endometriosis is a chronic inflammatory condition affecting a significant proportion of women of reproductive age.Although laparoscopic surgery is commonly the preferred treatment,the decision to preserve or remove the ovaries remains controversial.Previous studies have yielded inconsistent results regarding the impact of ovarian preservation vs oophorectomy on fertility outcomes and disease recurrence.This prospective study aimed to address this knowledge gap by comparing the effects of these surgical approaches on spontaneous pregnancy rates,time to pregnancy,recurrence rates,and postoperative pain in patients with endometriosis.AIM To compare the reproductive outcomes and recurrence rates between ovarian preservation and oophorectomy in women undergoing laparoscopic surgery for endometriosis.METHODS This study was conducted at a tertiary care hospital between January 2019 and December 2023.A total of 312 women aged 18 to 40 years,diagnosed with endometriosis and undergoing laparoscopic surgery,were included.The patients were categorized into the ovarian preservation group(n=204)and the oophorectomy group(n=108).The primary outcome measure was the achievement of spontaneous pregnancy within 24 months post-surgery.Secondary outcomes included time to spontaneous pregnancy,recurrence rates,and postoperative pain scores.RESULTS The ovarian preservation group exhibited a significantly higher spontaneous pregnancy rate than that in the oophorectomy group(43.6%vs 28.7%,P=0.006).Moreover,the median time to spontaneous pregnancy was shorter in the ovarian preservation group(8.2 months vs 11.4 months,P=0.018).Nonetheless,endometriosis recurrence was more prevalent in the ovarian preservation group(22.1%vs 11.1%,P=0.014).The postoperative pain scores demonstrated similar improvements in both groups,with no significant differences observed.Subgroup analyses indicated that the benefit of ovarian preservation on spontaneous pregnancy rates was more evident among younger women(≤35 years)and those with advanced-stage endometriosis.CONCLUSION Ovarian preservation is associated with a high spontaneous pregnancy rate and a short time to pregnancy.However,because of the increased risk of recurrence,the decision should be based on age,fertility aspirations,and disease severity.

Theoretical investigation on axial cyclic performance of monopile in sands using interface constitutive models

Cyclic loads generated by environmental factors,such as winds,waves,and trains,will likely lead to performance degradation in pile foundations,resulting in issues like permanent displacement accumulation and bearing capacity attenuation.This paper presents a semi-analytical solution for predicting the axial cyclic behavior of piles in sands.The solution relies on two enhanced nonlinear load-transfer models considering stress-strain hysteresis and cyclic degradation in the pile-soil interaction.Model parameters are calibrated through cyclic shear tests of the sand-steel interface and laboratory geotechnical testing of sands.A novel aspect involves the meticulous formulation of the shaft loadtransfer function using an interface constitutive model,which inherently inherits the interface model’s advantages,such as capturing hysteresis,hardening,degradation,and particle breakage.The semi-analytical solution is computed numerically using the matrix displacement method,and the calculated values are validated through model tests performed on non-displacement and displacement piles in sands.The results demonstrate that the predicted values show excellent agreement with the measured values for both the static and cyclic responses of piles in sands.The displacement pile response,including factors such as bearing capacity,mobilized shaft resistance,and convergence rate of permanent settlement,exhibit improvements compared to non-displacement piles attributed to the soil squeezing effect.This methodology presents an innovative analytical framework,allowing for integrating cyclic interface models into the theoretical investigation of pile responses.

Effect of dienogest treatment on uterine fibroid volume in patients with endometriosis or adenomyosis complicated by uterine fibroids

BACKGROUND Currently,the use of dienogest in clinical practice has increased significantly,and many studies have focused on its effectiveness and safety in the treatment of endometriosis and adenomyosis;however,the effects of treatment with dienogest on uterine fibroid size in patients with endometriosis or adenomyosis have not been investigated.AIM To explore changes in fibroid size in patients with concomitant uterine fibroids undergoing dienogest treatment for endometriosis or adenomyosis and to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of the drug.METHODS The clinical data of patients with uterine fibroids treated with dienogest for endometriosis or adenomyosis at Peking University First Hospital from January 2021 to January 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.RESULTS The maximum uterine fibroid diameter and volume increased after 3 months,6 months and 1 year of dienogest treatment compared with those before treatment(P<0.01).The maximum diameter and volume of the uterine adenomyoma increased after 3 months of dienogest treatment but decreased after 6 months and 1 year of treatment compared with those before treatment,but the difference was not significant(P>0.05).Endometrial thickness and antigen 125 levels were significantly thinner and decreased,respectively,after dienogest treatment(P<0.01).Pearson's correlation analysis revealed that the increase in uterine fibroid volume after 3 months of dienogest treatment was positively correlated with the basic uterine fibroid volume(r=0.792,P<0.01).Among 64 patients with dysmenorrhea,63 experienced significant relief of dysmenorrhea after 6 months of treatment with dienogest,and all patients experienced significant relief of dysmenorrhea after 12 months.Patients were able to tolerate the drugs,with an average drug tolerance score of 8.73.CONCLUSION The use of dienogest in patients with endometriosis or adenomyosis combined with uterine fibroids can effectively relieve the patient's pain symptoms and significantly reduce the sizes of ovarian endometriotic cysts,but it cannot inhibit uterine fibroid growth.

Can Tibetan medicine Honghua Ruyi pills relieve endometriosisassociated dysmenorrhea?Protocol for a randomized placebocontrolled trial

Objective:To provide high-quality clinical evidence of the efficacy of Tibetan medicine Honghua Ruyi(HHRY)pills for endometriosis-associated dysmenorrhea.Methods:This study constitutes a multicenter,randomized,double-blind,placebo-controlled trial encompassing a three-menstrual cycle intervention followed by a three-menstrual cycle follow-up period.A total of 164 eligible females with endometriosis-associated dysmenorrhea were randomly divided into HHRY pills and placebo groups in a 1:1 ratio.The primary outcome included dysmenorrhea symptoms assessed using Visual Analog Scale(VAS)scores and quality of life,whereas the secondary outcome measures included the maximum VAS for non-menstrual pelvic pain,duration of pain episodes(in days),frequency and quantity of the consumption of ibuprofen sustained-release capsules(or other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs),and days off work/study for staff/student due to dysmenorrhea,ovarian cyst,and/or pelvic nodule size.The safety was monitored throughout the treatment period.All the analyses were based on the intention-to-treat principle.For continuous outcomes,simple or multiple linear regressions were used to estimate the differences between the HHRY pills and placebo groups,with categorical data expressed as the number and percentage of occurrences.Differences were compared using the chi-square test or Fisher's exact test.The predefined analysis was adjusted for concomitant treatment,a variable considered to be associated with outcomes but unaffected by treatment allocation.Estimates of treatment effects were reported with 95%confidence intervals.Two-tailed P values≤.05 were considered statistically significant.Conclusion:Positive results from this trial,upon completion would provide robust evidence for the efficacy and safety of HHRY pills in treating dysmenorrhea in patients with endometriosis.

Dynamics of Advantageous Mutant Spread in Spatial Death-Birth and Birth-Death Moran Models

The spread of an advantageous mutation through a population is of fundamental interest in population genetics. While the classical Moran model is formulated for a well-mixed population, it has long been recognized that in real-world applications, the population usually has an explicit spatial structure which can significantly influence the dynamics. In the context of cancer initiation in epithelial tissue, several recent works have analyzed the dynamics of advantageous mutant spread on integer lattices, using the biased voter model from particle systems theory. In this spatial version of the Moran model, individuals first reproduce according to their fitness and then replace a neighboring individual. From a biological standpoint, the opposite dynamics, where individuals first die and are then replaced by a neighboring individual according to its fitness, are equally relevant. Here, we investigate this death-birth analogue of the biased voter model. We construct the process mathematically, derive the associated dual process, establish bounds on the survival probability of a single mutant, and prove that the process has an asymptotic shape. We also briefly discuss alternative birth-death and death-birth dynamics, depending on how the mutant fitness advantage affects the dynamics. We show that birth-death and death-birth formulations of the biased voter model are equivalent when fitness affects the former event of each update of the model, whereas the birth-death model is fundamentally different from the death-birth model when fitness affects the latter event.

An improved interval model updating method via adaptive Kriging models

Interval model updating(IMU)methods have been widely used in uncertain model updating due to their low requirements for sample data.However,the surrogate model in IMU methods mostly adopts the one-time construction method.This makes the accuracy of the surrogate model highly dependent on the experience of users and affects the accuracy of IMU methods.Therefore,an improved IMU method via the adaptive Kriging models is proposed.This method transforms the objective function of the IMU problem into two deterministic global optimization problems about the upper bound and the interval diameter through universal grey numbers.These optimization problems are addressed through the adaptive Kriging models and the particle swarm optimization(PSO)method to quantify the uncertain parameters,and the IMU is accomplished.During the construction of these adaptive Kriging models,the sample space is gridded according to sensitivity information.Local sampling is then performed in key subspaces based on the maximum mean square error(MMSE)criterion.The interval division coefficient and random sampling coefficient are adaptively adjusted without human interference until the model meets accuracy requirements.The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by a numerical example of a three-degree-of-freedom mass-spring system and an experimental example of a butted cylindrical shell.The results show that the updated results of the interval model are in good agreement with the experimental results.

The relationship between compartment models and their stochastic counterparts:A comparative study with examples of the COVID-19 epidemic modeling

Deterministic compartment models(CMs)and stochastic models,including stochastic CMs and agent-based models,are widely utilized in epidemic modeling.However,the relationship between CMs and their corresponding stochastic models is not well understood.The present study aimed to address this gap by conducting a comparative study using the susceptible,exposed,infectious,and recovered(SEIR)model and its extended CMs from the coronavirus disease 2019 modeling literature.We demonstrated the equivalence of the numerical solution of CMs using the Euler scheme and their stochastic counterparts through theoretical analysis and simulations.Based on this equivalence,we proposed an efficient model calibration method that could replicate the exact solution of CMs in the corresponding stochastic models through parameter adjustment.The advancement in calibration techniques enhanced the accuracy of stochastic modeling in capturing the dynamics of epidemics.However,it should be noted that discrete-time stochastic models cannot perfectly reproduce the exact solution of continuous-time CMs.Additionally,we proposed a new stochastic compartment and agent mixed model as an alternative to agent-based models for large-scale population simulations with a limited number of agents.This model offered a balance between computational efficiency and accuracy.The results of this research contributed to the comparison and unification of deterministic CMs and stochastic models in epidemic modeling.Furthermore,the results had implications for the development of hybrid models that integrated the strengths of both frameworks.Overall,the present study has provided valuable epidemic modeling techniques and their practical applications for understanding and controlling the spread of infectious diseases.

On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

Immune pathway through endometriosis to ovarian cancer

Endometriosis is an estrogen-dependent inflammatory disease,defined by the presence of functional endometrial tissue outside of the uterine cavity.This disease is one of the main gynecological diseases,affecting around 10%-15%women and girls of reproductive age,being a common gynecologic disorder.Although endometriosis is a benign disease,it shares several characteristics with invasive cancer.Studies support that it has been linked with an increased chance of developing endometrial ovarian cancer,representing an earlier stage of neoplastic processes.This is particularly true for women with clear cell carcinoma,low-grade serous carcinoma and endometrioid.However,the carcinogenic pathways between both pathologies remain poorly understood.Current studies suggest a connection between endometriosis and endometriosis-associated ovarian cancers(EAOCs)via pathways associated with oxidative stress,inflammation,and hyperestrogenism.This article aims to review current data on the molecular events linked to the development of EAOCs from endometriosis,specifically focusing on the complex relationship between the immune response to endometriosis and cancer,including the molecular mechanisms and their ramifications.Examining recent developments in immunotherapy and their potential to boost the effectiveness of future treatments.