Is pass‑through of the exchange rate to restaurant and hotel prices asymmetric in the US?Role of monetary policy uncertainty

This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.

Currency exposures of the oil and natural gas stock prices in the Hushen-300 stock market： A nonlinear model approach

The paper embarks to investigate the relationship between currency risk and stock prices of the oil and natural gas exploitation industry in the value-weighted Hushen-300 stock market, by applying the standard Capital Asset Pricing Model （CAPM） and nonlinear exchange rate exposure model to the Renminbi against US dollar. The results show that the currency exposure does vary in the oil-gas stock prices throughout the bull and bear market. The study suggests that the models of the equilibrium exchange rate exposure must be extended to considering the nonlinear exchange rate exposure, the regime periods of bull and bear market, and the industry types that is sensitive to the currency exposures. The nonlinear dynamic relationship between the exchange rate changes and the Chinese energy stock prices throughout the bull and bear market add to the recent empirical evidences that foreign exchange markets and stock markets are closely correlated.

Energy Price Reform in China

Market-based reform of energy prices is the most effective approach to enhancing energy efficiency. The policies of energy conservation and enhancing energy efficiency in the 11th Five-year Plan period （2006-2010） work directly to set up a series of reform measures related to energy pricing by market mechanism. Energy price reform will deeply influence China＇s industrial interest pattern, and its development in the next five years and even 10 or 20 years. This paper analyzes the significance, timing, present status and problems related to energy price reform, and discusses the goal, principle and measures of coal, electricity, oil and gas price reform separately.

China’s energy price shocks on its tertiary industry energy efficiency:a vector-error-correction model based empirical study

Assuming the heterogeneity of different industries, this paper, using time series data of years from 1980 to 2008 to empirically testify the direct &indirect as well as the long & short term shocks from energy price on energy efficiency of the tertiary industry in P. R. China, concludes that the rise of energy prices can significantly reduce the energy intensity in China's tertiary industry in the short and long run. Meanwhile, indirectly, energy price increase also exerts strong influence on the tertiary industry energy efficiency via the channel of coal consumption ratio change in the tertiary industry; namely, the higher energy price leads to more coal consumption, thus enhancing the energy efficiency as well.

Co‑movement of commodity price indexes and energy price index:a wavelet coherence approach

This research sheds light on the causal link between commodity price indexes,i.e.,the Agricultural Raw Materials Price Index,Industry Input Price Index,Metal Price Index,and Energy Price Index,in the global market,using wavelet coherence,Toda–Yamamoto causality,and gradual shift causality tests over the period 1992M1 to 2019M12.Findings from the wavelet power spectrum and partial wavelet coherence reveal that:(1)there was significant volatility in the Agricultural Raw Materials Price Index,Industry Input Price Index,Metal Price Index,and Energy Price Index between 2004 and 2014 at different frequencies;and(2)commodity price indexes significantly caused the energy price index at different time periods and frequencies.It is noteworthy that the outcomes of the Toda–Yamamoto causality and gradual-shift causality tests are in line with the results of wavelet coherence.

The tragedy of the commons and energy price depression of China

This article indicates by example about power price of Henan province that the energy resources of Henan province are ＂the commons＂. According to analysis of the game of ＂the tragedy of the commons＂, this article demonstrates that, whether under complete information or not, energy commons are abused. Based upon the situation, the author gives out the strategy to solve ＂the tragedy of the commons＂ of China energy sources.

Relevance of hybrid artificial intelligence for improving the forecasting accuracy of natural resource prices

The prediction performance of traditional forecasting methods is low due to the high level of complexity in a series of energy prices.The present study attempts to compare the traditional regression,machine learning tools and hybrid models to conclude the outperforming model.The first step is to propose the effective denoising technique for Tadawul energy index,which has confirmed the superiority of CSD based denoising.However,we use the CSD-ARIMA,CSD-ANN,and CSD-RNN as hybrid models.As a result,CSD-RNN outperforms both other models in terms of MSE,MAPE,RMSE and Dstat.The findings are useful for policy makers,investors and portfolio managers to forecast the energy trends,and hedge the portfolio risk accordingly.

Energy Price Fluctuation and Real Estate Market Risk Prevention——Empirical Evidence at the Prefecture-Level City Level in China

The impact of energy price fl uctuation on the macro economy is a hot issue that is continuously concerned by the academic community,but few literature have paid attention to the impact of energy price fl uctuation on housing price and the financial risks that may arise.Based on the data of cities at and above the prefecture level in China,this paper empirically examines the impact of energy price fl uctuation on the price fl uctuation of the domestic real estate,and analyzes its infl uencing mechanism and transmission pathways.The results show that changes of energy price will significantly affect the fl uctuation of domestic real estate price,and it is more obvious in large cities and megacities.Energy price affect the demand for housing through changes of interest rate levels on the one hand,and the supply of the real estate market through the cost of housing construction on the other hand,which leads to housing price fl uctuation.After a series of robustness tests,the results are still valid.At the same time,the effect is asymmetric,that is,higher energy price increases the fl uctuation of house price,but the impact of falling energy price is not significant.Therefore,when preventing real estate market risks,energy price should be considered as a forward-looking indicator to focus on,and the regulation and control policies of the real estate market should be scientifically formulated.This paper not only provides a new perspective on the mechanism of housing price formation,but also enriches the research on the interconnection between energy and financial markets.

Analysis of China＇s Oil and Gas Policies in 2016

Guided by President Xi Jinping's key speech about energy revolution— "Four Revolutions and One Cooperation"-the Chinese oil and gas industry continued to accelerate its pace of reform in 2016.China has deepened its supply-side structural reforms,prevented and resolved the problem of excess production capacity,increased the effective supply of clean energy such as natural gas,and formed an energy innovation system.It has pushed forward the reform of pricing mechanisms with significant adjustments in the pricing mechanisms of oil products,pipeline transportation,gas storage and gas used for fertilizer production.It has also accelerated market access reform and encouraged various investors to enter into the fields of exploration & production,pipeline transportation and crude oil imports.China has sped up the legislative process of environmental protection to promote green and low-carbon development.It has accelerated oil & gas industry institutional reform,with some provinces initiating the pilot reform of oil and gas.

Energy Industry in China: Marketization and National Energy Security

Opening up the market, breaking the monopoly, and allowing the market to decide prices —these are the major items on the agenda for the marketization of China’s energy industry,and have a direct bearing on national energy security. Research into China’s energy securityhas so far focused on such fields as strategic energy reserves, stability of energy imports,and diversification of import channels. Little has been done in the study of national energysecurity from the perspective of marketization of the energy industry. However, opening upthe energy market and marketizing the energy industry are not only major commitments toChina’s accession to WTO, they serve the nation’s energy security needs as well. This papertakes a look at the actual results of opening up the energy market, the structure of thatmarket, and the nation’s energy pricing mechanisms, and on the basis of the findings, raisessuggestions on how to tackle the energy security issue.

Energy Restructuring in China:Retrospects and Prospects

Thirty years have passed since China first adopted the policy of reform and opening up to the outside. Reviewing and appraising the advantages and disadvantages of the government＇s energy restructuring policy in the intervening years is of great importance to the consideration of future reform and opening-up efforts in this industry. Energy production and supply have been a major part of the national economic restructuring. In this paper, the author proceeds from three angles to review and assess the reform and opening-up efforts in the energy industry, and suggests some direction and priorities for its restrueturing in the future.