An Empirical Study on China＇s Energy Supply-and-Demand Model Considering Carbon Emission Peak Constraints in 2030

China＇s energy supply-and-demand model and two related carbon emission scenarios, including a planned peak scenario and an advanced peak scenario, are designed taking into consideration China＇s economic development, technological progress, policies, resources, environmental capacity, and other factors. The analysis of the defined scenarios provides the following conclusions： Primary energy and power demand will continue to grow leading up to 2030, and the growth rate of power demand will be much higher than that of primary energy demand. Moreover, low carbonization will be a basic feature of energy supply-and-demand structural changes, and non-fossil energy will replace oil as the second largest energy source. Finally, energy- related carbon emissions could peak in 2025 through the application of more efficient energy consumption patterns and more low-carbon energy supply modes. The push toward decarbonization of the power industry is essential for reducing the peak value of carbon emissions.

Pricing and decision of carbon emission reduction for closed-loop supply chain considering carbon trading mechanism

To determine the optimal pricing and carbon emission reduction decision, a closed-loop supply chain with a manufacturer and a retailer is investigated. In this system, the manufacturer manufactures new products and remanufactures used products while the retailer is responsible for selling new products and remanufactured products. The profit functions of the manufacturer and the retailer are developed, and the corresponding solution formulae for decision variables are given by the Stackelberg game model. Finally, a numerical example is given, and the optimal wholesale price, retail price, carbon emission reduction and others are obtained. Through the sensitivity of the unit carbon allowance price, some significant managerial insights are derived.

Forecast of natural gas supply and demand in China under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”

As a kind of clean energy which creates little carbon dioxide, natural gas will play a key role in the process of achieving “Peak Carbon Dioxide Emission” and “Carbon Neutrality”. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP) model was improved by using new parameters including comprehensive energy efficiency and terminal effective energy consumption. The Back Propagation(BP) Neural Network–LEAP model was proposed to predict key data such as total primary energy consumption, energy mix, carbon emissions from energy consumption, and natural gas consumption in China. Moreover, natural gas production in China was forecasted by the production composition method. Finally, based on the forecast results of natural gas supply and demand, suggestions were put forward on the development of China’s natural gas industry under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”. The research results indicate that under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China’s primary energy consumption will peak(59.4×10^(8)tce) around 2035, carbon emissions from energy consumption will peak(103.4×10^(8)t) by 2025, and natural gas consumption will peak(6100×10^(8)m^(3)) around 2040, of which the largest increase will be contributed by the power sector and industrial sector. China’s peak natural gas production is about(2800–3400)×10^(8)m^(3), including(2100–2300)×10^(8)m^(3)conventional gas(including tight gas),(600–1050)×10^(8)m^(3)shale gas, and(150–220)×10^(8)m^(3)coalbed methane. Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the natural gas consumption and production of China will further increase, showing a great potential of the natural gas industry.

Research on the Impact of New and Renewable Energy Replacing Fossil Energy Resource under Constraint of Carbon Emissions

For studying new and renewable energy as a substitute for fossil energy in primary energy consumption and its impact on carbon emissions to cope with economic uncertainties, a multi-sector DSGE model was employed to simulate the dynamic impact on carbon emissions and macroeconomic development. The structural adjustment of energy consumption and the carbon emissions mitigation policy were considered in the model. The simulation results showed that using new and renewable energy instead of fossil energy is an optimal choice for the firms to comply with the regulations of carbon emission mitigation policy. Structural adjustment of energy consumption is the best route to achieve the dual goal of economic development and carbon emission reduction. Unexpected sharp fall in free carbon quota has a negative impact on the economy.

Impact of Renewable Energy on Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction in Bangladesh

Economic growth and industrialization often default to a great dependency on fossil fuels (FF) to supply power needs. The carbon rich nature of FF combustion can impact global warming. Therefore, it is conducive to transition from FF to renewable energy (RE). The present study aimed to address if replacement of a single FF by RE can mitigate carbon emissions. We conduct the study in a country undergoing mass urbanization and challenging energy demands. Data from energy resources in the Power & Energy Sector Master Plan (PSMP2016;Bangladesh) are analyzed over the 2017-2021 trajectory. Two scenarios for imports, oil and coal are assessed. Environmental input output (E-IO) analysis and percentage equivalence analysis measured data variables. The data is then further disaggregated into an emission reduction (ER) model with sensitivity analysis to measure carbon emission reduction when each FF source is substituted by RE. Results show the percentage share of energy generation capacity by both coal and RE increase over time. Solar and wind power contribute to the increase in RE. When oil is imported a 1% increase in oil, coal, and gas-based energy generation capacity increases carbon emissions by 1.25%, 1.48% and 0.93%, respectively. 1% increase in RE produces negligible carbon emissions (0.0042%). There was little difference in the percentages of carbon emissions when coal is imported. Substituting any FF with RE of equal energy capacity does not, in the short term, reduce carbon emissions in either scenario. Therefore, we conclude that for long term clean energy prospects in Bangladesh, RE needs to be developed to operate at greater capacity in conjunction with other carbon management factors. The research findings herein offer insights for clean energy implementation in developing nations.

Role of circular economy,energy transition,environmental policy stringency,and supply chain pressure on CO_(2)emissions in emerging economies

This paper investigates the effect of the circular economy on CO_(2)emissions growth by considering the role of energy transition,climate policy stringency,industrialization,and supply chain pressure from 1997 to 2020 using panel quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lags(QARDL)and the panel PMG.We employ cointegration association in the long run among the variables,and the results of the two models confirm this.Findings reveal that circular economy and climate policy stringency significantly negatively impact carbon emissions.On the other hand,the energy transition,industrialization,and supply chain pressures are crucial to determining CO_(2)emissions in the short and long run.The finding further explores that municipal waste generation recycling is considerable at the mean and upper 90th quantiles than the lower quantile.Therefore,the empirical results of the current study provide acumens for policymakers of advanced economies and emerging markets to maintain the balance among circular economy,energy transition,environmental policy stringency,and supply chain pressure for reducing CO_(2)emissions without halting economic growth and sustainable development.Furthermore,practical implications are reported through the lens of carbon neutrality and structural changes.

Green and Low-carbon Development Strategy for Large Energy Enterprises

Green and low-carbon development is the critical countermeasure to cope with climate change and to promote energy production and consumption revolution.China National Offshore Oil Corporation(“CNOOC”)has thoroughly implemented the requirements of the country’s ecological civilisation construction,highlighting the mission and responsibility of large central energy enterprises.Combined with the characteristics of its industry,CNOOC put forward a green low-carbon development strategy.CNOOC has put into practice the concept and practice of green and lowcarbon development by optimising the design of management systems,innovating energy conservation and emission reduction management and practice,promoting the construction of a green manufacturing system,and strengthening the supply of low-carbon clean energy.The main path and direction of the follow-up of the sustainable development are clearly defined.These practices provide a useful reference for promoting the transformation of China’s economic development mode to being more green and low-carbon,constructing an ecological civilization and development that is sustainable.

The role of new energy in carbon neutral

Carbon dioxide is an important medium of the global carbon cycle,and has the dual properties of realizing the conversion of organic matter in the ecosystem and causing the greenhouse effect.The fixed or available carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is defined as"gray carbon",while the carbon dioxide that cannot be fixed or used and remains in the atmosphere is called"black carbon".Carbon neutral is the consensus of human development,but its implementation still faces many challenges in politics,resources,technology,market,and energy structure,etc.It is proposed that carbon replacement,carbon emission reduction,carbon sequestration,and carbon cycle are the four main approaches to achieve carbon neutral,among which carbon replacement is the backbone.New energy has become the leading role of the third energy conversion and will dominate carbon neutral in the future.Nowadays,solar energy,wind energy,hydropower,nuclear energy and hydrogen energy are the main forces of new energy,helping the power sector to achieve low carbon emissions."Green hydrogen"is the reserve force of new energy,helping further reduce carbon emissions in industrial and transportation fields.Artificial carbon conversion technology is a bridge connecting new energy and fossil energy,effectively reducing the carbon emissions of fossil energy.It is predicted that the peak value of China’s carbon dioxide emissions will reach 110×10^(8) t in 2030.The study predicts that China’s carbon emissions will drop to 22×10^(8) t,33×10^(8) t and 44×10^(8) t,respectively,in 2060 according to three scenarios of high,medium,and low levels.To realize carbon neutral in China,seven implementation suggestions have been put forward to build a new"three small and one large"energy structure in China and promote the realization of China’s energy independence strategy.

Global low-carbon transition and China's response strategies

The Paris Agreement establishes a new mechanism for post-2020 global climate governance, and sets long-term goals for global response to climate change, which will accelerate worldwide low-carbon transformation of economic development pattern, promote the revolutionary reform of energy system, boost a fundamental change in the mode of social production and consumption, and further the civilization of human society from industrial civilization to eco-civilization. The urgency of global low-carbon transition will reshape the competition situation of world's economy, trade and technology. Taking the construction of eco-civilization as a guide, China explores green and low-carbon development paths,establishes ambitious intended nationally determined contribution(INDC) targets and action plans, advances energy production and consumption revolution, and speeds up the transformation of economic development pattern. These strategies and actions not only confirm to the trend of the world low-carbon transition, but also meet the intrinsic requirements for easing the domestic resources and environment constraints and realizing sustainable development. They are multi-win-win strategies for promotion of economic development and environmental protection and mitigation of carbon emissions. China should take the global long-term emission reduction targets as a guide, and formulate medium and long-term low-carbon development strategy, build the core competitiveness of low-carbon advanced technology and development pattern, and take an in-depth part in global governance so as to reflect the responsibility of China as a great power in constructing a community of common destiny for all mankind and addressing global ecological crisis.

Developmental Status Quo and Trends of Low-carbon Agriculture

In order to reduce carbon emission in agricultural production,this paper has discussed the developmental trends of low-carbon agriculture in terms of developing precision agriculture,improving the efficiency of fertilizer utilization,scientific use of pesticides,water-saving irrigation,ecological control of pests and diseases,as well as energy conservation and emission reduction by agricultural machinery and other agricultural practices.

The Strategy for the Development of Low-carbon Animal Husbandry in Taiwan and the Lessons Drawn from It

In this paper,we analyze the strategies for the development of low-carbon animal husbandry in Taiwan which mainly focuses on strengthening the livestock farm carbon reduction,promoting the livestock breeding energy conservation and emission reduction technology,and develop the environmental protection laws related to animal husbandry to combat animal husbandry pollution. Learning from the strategies and legislative management experience for the development of low-carbon animal husbandry in Taiwan,we set forth the following recommendations for improving the development of low-carbon animal husbandry in China's Mainland: increasing the financial investment in environmental protection; strengthening the scientific research of cleaner production; promoting sound pollution control legislation; moderately restricting the scale of livestock and poultry farm.

Construction and Implementation of CNOOC's Green Supply China

Firstly, the construction background and basic connotations of CNOOC's Green Supply Chain was presented in this paper. Then, a detailed introduction to CNOOC's good practices for building green oil and gas fields, green power plants, green refineries and green chemical plants was given with respect to the establishment of a green production construction and assessment system as well as green exploration, green manufacturing,green products, green sales, green recovery and other aspects. Finally, the effects of the Green Supply Chain established by CNOOC were summarized.

新能源汽车碳减排潜力分析

在“碳达峰、碳中和”双碳目标驱动下,新能源汽车凭借其碳减排优势受到了广泛关注.旨在促进新能源汽车碳减排潜力评估的相关研究,从新能源汽车碳排放计量与分析、车网协同优化低碳运行、车辆碳排放总量态势预测等三个方面进行分析与综述,归纳了相关领域最新研究成果,总结各类建模方法优缺点,重点阐述了汽车节能减排核算体系与行业碳排放管理体系等相关成果,并提出新能源汽车碳减排潜力分析研究的发展趋势及未来研究方向.

保供降碳目标下能源转型模式及转型时点分析

应对气候变化目标要求全球能源系统进行广泛而深刻的转型。由于资源禀赋、能源战略、技术水平等差异,各国能源转型进程呈现出明显的异质性特征。通过对主要国家能源转型特征与减煤路径的分析,归纳了4种典型模式:能效提高模式、增气减煤模式、煤炭洁净利用模式、新能源替代模式,不同模式在不同时间点上与经济社会发展交互影响形成了国际能源转型的内在驱动机制。采用面板数据模型识别了影响能源转型模式的重要因素,并利用历史趋势分析方法对我国化石能源消费“拐点”与减煤时间节点进行研究。研究表明,当人均GDP达到25500美元时,发达国家即出现化石能源减少拐点。国家创新指数和城镇化与煤炭消费占比呈负相关,第二产业增加值占比与煤炭消费占比呈正相关。我国预计减煤时间范围在2028-2035年,化石能源消费减少时点在2040年左右。考虑到我国以煤炭为主的能源资源禀赋,我国能源转型目标的实现须依赖于煤炭洁净利用为主的转型路径,大力发展低碳化现代煤基能源体系,改变传统煤炭利用理念与方式,为未来多能耦合的新型能源体系提供重要支撑。

环境补贴能提升企业碳绩效吗--基于A股上市公司实证分析

环境补贴既是国家实现“双碳”目标的宏观调控手段,也是减轻企业环保负担、引导企业节能减排的推动力。选取2014~2019年接受环境补贴的1094家A股上市公司3735个观测值作为研究样本,采用双向固定效应模型,实证探究环境补贴对企业碳绩效的影响。研究表明,环境补贴与企业碳绩效显著正相关且具有滞后性特征,异质性检验发现,成立时间长的企业、国有企业、东部地区与中低污染企业环境补贴作用效果显著;进一步研究发现,环境补贴中的节能减排补贴与企业碳绩效显著正相关,环境治理补贴对企业碳绩效起负向作用。据此,提出环境补贴应以降碳为重点、减污降碳协同增效为目的等建议。

沈阳地区典型办公建筑运行阶段碳减排潜力研究

以沈阳某办公建筑为例,将GB 50189—2015《公共建筑节能设计标准》作为节能基准,对比分析多种近零能耗建筑技术情形对建筑碳排放的影响,并对其碳减排潜力进行评估测算。利用模拟软件Design Builder对沈阳市某办公建筑建立典型模型,通过模拟计算得到几种不同技术情形下的能耗强度。碳排放强度由不同类型能源碳排放因子与能耗强度计算得出。结果表明:可再生能源利用技术和暖通空调设备能效提升技术可明显减少碳排放,碳减排率分别可达到44.88%和39.99%;另外,建筑围护结构改造以及自然通风和自然采光结合技术,减排率分别为8.18%、7.22%。按照近零能耗建筑技术要求,综合6种技术情形,办公建筑运行阶段的减排率可达51.08%。

中国水泥行业2011-2022年二氧化碳和大气污染物排放分析

2011—2021年,熟料产量呈波动上升趋势。水泥行业整体生产运行水平不断提高,熟料单条生产线平均规模由43.8万t/条提升至115.3万t/条,熟料单位产品综合能耗下降14.4%,熟料单位产品CO_(2)排放强度下降6.3%,但CO_(2)排放总量增加了13.8%,与氮氧化物减排趋势形成较大反差,碳污治理水平差距明显。熟料生产中石灰石分解和煤炭燃烧过程的CO_(2)排放合计占比为92.9%~93.8%,是CO_(2)排放的主要来源。由于熟料系数偏高、非碳酸盐原料替代不足、综合能耗仍然较高等原因,安徽等7个熟料产量大的省份的CO_(2)排放强度高于全国。建议实行碳酸盐熟料产量总量控制,逐步降低熟料应用比例,加快建材市场熟料产品和非碳酸盐原料替代,降低高标号水泥使用比例。应大力推广水泥行业节能降耗增效技术,加快熟料落后产能淘汰。对熟料产量大、碳排放强度高的地区,应结合当地碳排放特点,实行差别化降碳策略。各大气污染防治重点区域应因地施策推进水泥行业减污降碳工作。

第三方再制造供应链生产及减排决策

第三方再制造是再制造的主要形式,主要包括外包和授权两种模式。考虑碳税和消费者异质需求,建立了制造商和再制造商的博弈模型,对比分析了外包与授权模式下供应链的生产及减排决策。研究发现:①根据再制造碳排放水平,制造商和再制造商可选择不同的生产策略。②制造商减排使其自身和供应链利润增加,而再制造商利润不一定增加;综合经济和环境效益,外包再制造优于授权模式。③当再制造减排效果较强,而消费者对再制造产品接受度较高时,集中决策能够实现供应链总利润增加的同时总碳排降低。④制造商提高外包费(降低授权费),同时分享再制造商部分利润,能够实现外包(授权)再制造供应链的协调。

北京市大学生碳足迹现状及碳中和意愿研究

该文从多个维度分析北京大学生碳足迹现状,深入挖掘大学生碳中和意愿及其影响因素。通过问卷调查、深度访谈等方法对北京市高校学生衣食住行等现状和碳中和意愿进行调研,运用因子分析法基于调研数据对学生碳足迹进行计算和评估,通过Matlab、anova1函数、回归模型等对调研结果进行数据挖掘和因果关联分析,探究其相关影响因素。结果显示:在8个影响因素的基础上,20个因子能更好地刻画原始数据信息。对20个因子进行多元线性回归分析,拟合度得到显著改善。回归结果表明环保意识、碳中和态度等多个因子对低碳生活认同产生了显著影响。根据以上研究对高校碳中和提出在交通、水电、饮食及宣传方面的可行性建议。

联合创新视角下的绿色供应链双重治理策略研究

为探究不同环境规制政策之间的协同效应,最大程度提升供应链企业绿色创新,利用博弈论和决策优化方法,从联合创新视角研究政府补贴和碳减排规制这两种治理策略下绿色供应链的市场绩效及社会绿色绩效。考虑单位绿色产品的碳减排约束,引入K-T条件建立并求解制造商单独创新(IM)以及联合创新(UG)下的政府补贴模型,并对结果进行对比分析。研究发现,只有当碳减排约束超过某一阈值时,双重治理策略才能形成,否则仅补贴策略有效。相比于单补贴策略,双重治理策略能实现更高的单位产品碳减排水平,有利于增加绿色产品的市场需求,但不利于提升制造商的经济利润,也不利于发挥联合创新模式的优势。两种治理策略在提高消费者剩余和社会总福利方面存在正向协同效应,在实现联合创新社会价值方面则呈负向协同。