The thermal evolution of the Earth’s interior and its dynamic effects are the focus of Earth sciences.However,the commonly adopted grid-based temperature solver is usually prone to numerical oscillations,especially i...The thermal evolution of the Earth’s interior and its dynamic effects are the focus of Earth sciences.However,the commonly adopted grid-based temperature solver is usually prone to numerical oscillations,especially in the presence of sharp thermal gradients,such as when modeling subducting slabs and rising plumes.This phenomenon prohibits the correct representation of thermal evolution and may cause incorrect implications of geodynamic processes.After examining several approaches for removing these numerical oscillations,we show that the Lagrangian method provides an ideal way to solve this problem.In this study,we propose a particle-in-cell method as a strategy for improving the solution to the energy equation and demonstrate its effectiveness in both one-dimensional and three-dimensional thermal problems,as well as in a global spherical simulation with data assimilation.We have implemented this method in the open-source finite-element code CitcomS,which features a spherical coordinate system,distributed memory parallel computing,and data assimilation algorithms.展开更多
New energy vehicles represent the inevitable trend of future development.Compared to traditional fuel vehicles,they are more energy-saving and environmentally friendly,effectively reducing air pollution and mitigating...New energy vehicles represent the inevitable trend of future development.Compared to traditional fuel vehicles,they are more energy-saving and environmentally friendly,effectively reducing air pollution and mitigating excessive exploitation of oil resources,a stance strongly supported by governments.However,new energy vehicles possess certain drawbacks in terms of price and usability compared to traditional counterparts.Therefore,external support is imperative for their development.This paper delineates four main sections:the background of new energy vehicle promotion and application,a comparative analysis of domestic and foreign promotion models,specific promotion suggestions,and future development prospects.By leveraging insights from economic analysis,the optimal promotion model for new energy vehicles is elucidated.展开更多
This study focuses on a national regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand, and carbon...This study focuses on a national regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand, and carbon emissions of the provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2021 2025) period based on the economic development and energy demand since the New Normal. The main conclusions are the following: 1) Under the guidance of the regional coordinated development strategy, 13 provinces/municipalities are expected to have a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of more than US$15,000, and 16 provinces/municipalities will have a per capita GDP of US$10,000 15,000. All provincial economies are expected to achieve steady and rapid development by the end of the 14th FYP. 2) The total energy consumption of the provinces is expected to reach 5.45 Gtce (excluding Tibet) in 2025, and the average annual growth rate is approximately 1.5%. The growth of energy demand will remain in low speed. The key point of energy demand will gradually shift from the eastern to the middle area, while the proportion of energy use in the western provinces will remain stable, which is consistent with the economic development stage and regional coordinated development strategy. 3) The annual average carbon intensity (mainly considering carbon emissions from energy use) of the provinces will approximately with most provinces dropping by over 4.0%. The trend of a considerable decline in carbon intensity, as observed in recent years, is expected to continue.展开更多
The impulse waves induced by large-reservoir landslides can be characterized by a low Froude number.However,systematic research on predictive models specifically targeting the initial primary wave is lacking.Taking th...The impulse waves induced by large-reservoir landslides can be characterized by a low Froude number.However,systematic research on predictive models specifically targeting the initial primary wave is lacking.Taking the Shuipingzi 1#landslide that occurred in the Baihetan Reservoir area of the Jinsha River in China as an engineering example,this study established a large-scale physical model(with dimensions of 30 m×29 m×3.5 m at a scale of 1:150)and conducted scaled experiments on 3D landslide-induced impulse waves.During the process in which a sliding mass displaced and compressed a body of water to generate waves,the maximum initial wave amplitude was found to be positively correlated with the sliding velocity and the volume of the landslide.With the increase in the water depth,the wave amplitude initially increased and then decreased.The duration of pressure exertion by the sliding mass at its maximum velocity directly correlated with an elevated wave amplitude.Based on the theories of low-amplitude waves and energy conservation,while considering the energy conversion efficiency,a predictive model for the initial wave amplitude was derived.This model could fit and validate the functions of wavelength and wave velocity.The accuracy of the initial wave amplitude was verified using physical experiment data,with a prediction accuracy for the maximum initial wave amplitude reaching 90%.The conversion efficiency(η)directly determined the accuracy of the estimation formula.Under clear conditions for landslide-induced impulse wave generation,estimating the value ofηthrough analogy cases was feasible.This study has derived the landslide-induced impulse waves amplitude prediction formula from the standpoints of wave theory and energy conservation,with greater consideration given to the intrinsic characteristics in the formation process of landslide-induced impulse waves,thereby enhancing the applicability and extensibility of the formula.This can facilitate the development of empirical estimation methods for landslide-induced impulse waves toward universality.展开更多
A three-dimensional, first order turbulence closure, thermal diffusion model is described in this paper. The governing equations consist of an equation of continuity, three components of momentum, conservation equatio...A three-dimensional, first order turbulence closure, thermal diffusion model is described in this paper. The governing equations consist of an equation of continuity, three components of momentum, conservation equations for salt, temperature and subgridscale energy, and an equation of state. In the model, according to the hypothesis of Kolmogorov and Prandtl, the viscosity coefficient of turbulent flow of homogeneous fluid is related to the local turbulent energy, and the horizontal and vertical exchange coefficients of mass, heat and momentum are computed with the introduction of subgridscale turbulence energy. The governing equations are solved by finite difference techniques. This model is applied to the Jiaozhou bay to predict thermal pollution by the Huangdao power plant. An instantaneous tidal current field is computed, then the distribution of temperature increment is predicted, and finally the effect of wind stress on thermal discharge is discussed.展开更多
近年来,建设清洁低碳安全高效的能源体系,发展可再生能源替代,构建以新能源为主体的新型电力系统成为我国能源发展的必然趋势。在风光资源富集地区,随着新能源装机不断增加,大型综合能源基地得到快速发展。该文基于主客观赋权法建立多...近年来,建设清洁低碳安全高效的能源体系,发展可再生能源替代,构建以新能源为主体的新型电力系统成为我国能源发展的必然趋势。在风光资源富集地区,随着新能源装机不断增加,大型综合能源基地得到快速发展。该文基于主客观赋权法建立多能互补综合能源基地评估体系,对我国“三北”、西南及东部沿海区域发展布局多能互补基地进行评估。为进一步提升多能互补基地经济效益,建立基于长短期记忆神经网络(long short term memory,LSTM)的电价预测模型及多能互补日前优化调度模型,利用粒子群优化算法进行寻优,以实现能源基地综合收益最大化的日前优化调度目标。最后,以甘肃陇东千万kW级多能互补综合能源基地为例,分别开展夏季及冬季典型日的优化调度算例仿真,结果表明,该优化调度方法能够促进基地内新能源消纳的同时最大化能源基地综合收益,为大型综合能源基地的日前优化调度提供技术支撑。展开更多
党的二十大报告提出,积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和。能源结构调整是实现碳中和目标的重要途径,从碳排放产生机制与经济增长的共生关系出发,将经济高质量发展纳入碳中和目标考虑范畴。基于长三角地区3省1市2017年投入产出表,构建区域宏、微...党的二十大报告提出,积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和。能源结构调整是实现碳中和目标的重要途径,从碳排放产生机制与经济增长的共生关系出发,将经济高质量发展纳入碳中和目标考虑范畴。基于长三角地区3省1市2017年投入产出表,构建区域宏、微观SAM表及能源结构调整模拟分析CGE(computable general equilibrium)模型,建立长三角地区宏观经济闭合系统,研究能源结构调整对长三角地区的经济影响及其差异性。研究发现:1)长三角各区域随着能源结构转型不断推进,其经济影响存在明显差异性,以江苏省为例,当清洁能源替代5%、10%、15%、20%时,江苏省能源结构调整的多数经济指标的经济影响以替代5%时的损失最多,替代10%时的损失小于替代5%、15%时的损失;2)长三角各区域经济发展对传统化石能源的依赖程度存在较大差异,安徽省、上海市经济发展受到能源结构调整的影响较低,江苏省次之,浙江省受到能源结构调整的影响最大;3)随着能源结构调整不断推进,长三角部分区域的经济影响存在阶段性浮动,以江苏省为例,当清洁能源替代10%时,多数经济指标,如农业、制造业、服务业部门的产出以及GDP、政府收入等的经济影响均小于清洁能源替代5%、15%时产生的影响。能源结构调整对长三角地区乃至全国各地实现碳中和目标至关重要,亟须关注。展开更多
基金the National Supercomputer Center in Tianjin for their patient assistance in providing the compilation environment.We thank the editor,Huajian Yao,for handling the manuscript and Mingming Li and another anonymous reviewer for their constructive comments.The research leading to these results has received funding from National Natural Science Foundation of China projects(Grant Nos.92355302 and 42121005)Taishan Scholar projects(Grant No.tspd20210305)others(Grant Nos.XDB0710000,L2324203,XK2023DXC001,LSKJ202204400,and ZR2021ZD09).
文摘The thermal evolution of the Earth’s interior and its dynamic effects are the focus of Earth sciences.However,the commonly adopted grid-based temperature solver is usually prone to numerical oscillations,especially in the presence of sharp thermal gradients,such as when modeling subducting slabs and rising plumes.This phenomenon prohibits the correct representation of thermal evolution and may cause incorrect implications of geodynamic processes.After examining several approaches for removing these numerical oscillations,we show that the Lagrangian method provides an ideal way to solve this problem.In this study,we propose a particle-in-cell method as a strategy for improving the solution to the energy equation and demonstrate its effectiveness in both one-dimensional and three-dimensional thermal problems,as well as in a global spherical simulation with data assimilation.We have implemented this method in the open-source finite-element code CitcomS,which features a spherical coordinate system,distributed memory parallel computing,and data assimilation algorithms.
文摘New energy vehicles represent the inevitable trend of future development.Compared to traditional fuel vehicles,they are more energy-saving and environmentally friendly,effectively reducing air pollution and mitigating excessive exploitation of oil resources,a stance strongly supported by governments.However,new energy vehicles possess certain drawbacks in terms of price and usability compared to traditional counterparts.Therefore,external support is imperative for their development.This paper delineates four main sections:the background of new energy vehicle promotion and application,a comparative analysis of domestic and foreign promotion models,specific promotion suggestions,and future development prospects.By leveraging insights from economic analysis,the optimal promotion model for new energy vehicles is elucidated.
基金s This work was supported by the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology (2016YFA0602601), Science and Technology Project of the State Grid Corporation of China Headquarters ''Research and Development of China Multi-regional Compre hensive Analysis and Forecast Mcxlel System for Energy Sup ply and Demand Fourth National Climate Assessment Report: Mitigation of Climate Change’’, and National Natural Science Foundation of China Program (71573145, 71573062).
文摘This study focuses on a national regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand, and carbon emissions of the provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2021 2025) period based on the economic development and energy demand since the New Normal. The main conclusions are the following: 1) Under the guidance of the regional coordinated development strategy, 13 provinces/municipalities are expected to have a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of more than US$15,000, and 16 provinces/municipalities will have a per capita GDP of US$10,000 15,000. All provincial economies are expected to achieve steady and rapid development by the end of the 14th FYP. 2) The total energy consumption of the provinces is expected to reach 5.45 Gtce (excluding Tibet) in 2025, and the average annual growth rate is approximately 1.5%. The growth of energy demand will remain in low speed. The key point of energy demand will gradually shift from the eastern to the middle area, while the proportion of energy use in the western provinces will remain stable, which is consistent with the economic development stage and regional coordinated development strategy. 3) The annual average carbon intensity (mainly considering carbon emissions from energy use) of the provinces will approximately with most provinces dropping by over 4.0%. The trend of a considerable decline in carbon intensity, as observed in recent years, is expected to continue.
基金The authors would like thank LI Renjiang and HU Bin from the China Three Gorges Corporation for providing many valuable suggestions for the establishment of the physical models.This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U23A2045)the China Three Gorges Corporation(YM(BHT)/(22)022)the Scientific Research Project of Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources(Evaluation and Reinforcement Technology of Surge Disaster Caused by High and Steep Dangerous Rocks in Chongqing Reservoir Area of the Three Gorges Project,KJ-2023046).
文摘The impulse waves induced by large-reservoir landslides can be characterized by a low Froude number.However,systematic research on predictive models specifically targeting the initial primary wave is lacking.Taking the Shuipingzi 1#landslide that occurred in the Baihetan Reservoir area of the Jinsha River in China as an engineering example,this study established a large-scale physical model(with dimensions of 30 m×29 m×3.5 m at a scale of 1:150)and conducted scaled experiments on 3D landslide-induced impulse waves.During the process in which a sliding mass displaced and compressed a body of water to generate waves,the maximum initial wave amplitude was found to be positively correlated with the sliding velocity and the volume of the landslide.With the increase in the water depth,the wave amplitude initially increased and then decreased.The duration of pressure exertion by the sliding mass at its maximum velocity directly correlated with an elevated wave amplitude.Based on the theories of low-amplitude waves and energy conservation,while considering the energy conversion efficiency,a predictive model for the initial wave amplitude was derived.This model could fit and validate the functions of wavelength and wave velocity.The accuracy of the initial wave amplitude was verified using physical experiment data,with a prediction accuracy for the maximum initial wave amplitude reaching 90%.The conversion efficiency(η)directly determined the accuracy of the estimation formula.Under clear conditions for landslide-induced impulse wave generation,estimating the value ofηthrough analogy cases was feasible.This study has derived the landslide-induced impulse waves amplitude prediction formula from the standpoints of wave theory and energy conservation,with greater consideration given to the intrinsic characteristics in the formation process of landslide-induced impulse waves,thereby enhancing the applicability and extensibility of the formula.This can facilitate the development of empirical estimation methods for landslide-induced impulse waves toward universality.
基金This project was financially supported by the National Committee of Science and Technology Grants/903-85-08-05
文摘A three-dimensional, first order turbulence closure, thermal diffusion model is described in this paper. The governing equations consist of an equation of continuity, three components of momentum, conservation equations for salt, temperature and subgridscale energy, and an equation of state. In the model, according to the hypothesis of Kolmogorov and Prandtl, the viscosity coefficient of turbulent flow of homogeneous fluid is related to the local turbulent energy, and the horizontal and vertical exchange coefficients of mass, heat and momentum are computed with the introduction of subgridscale turbulence energy. The governing equations are solved by finite difference techniques. This model is applied to the Jiaozhou bay to predict thermal pollution by the Huangdao power plant. An instantaneous tidal current field is computed, then the distribution of temperature increment is predicted, and finally the effect of wind stress on thermal discharge is discussed.
文摘近年来,建设清洁低碳安全高效的能源体系,发展可再生能源替代,构建以新能源为主体的新型电力系统成为我国能源发展的必然趋势。在风光资源富集地区,随着新能源装机不断增加,大型综合能源基地得到快速发展。该文基于主客观赋权法建立多能互补综合能源基地评估体系,对我国“三北”、西南及东部沿海区域发展布局多能互补基地进行评估。为进一步提升多能互补基地经济效益,建立基于长短期记忆神经网络(long short term memory,LSTM)的电价预测模型及多能互补日前优化调度模型,利用粒子群优化算法进行寻优,以实现能源基地综合收益最大化的日前优化调度目标。最后,以甘肃陇东千万kW级多能互补综合能源基地为例,分别开展夏季及冬季典型日的优化调度算例仿真,结果表明,该优化调度方法能够促进基地内新能源消纳的同时最大化能源基地综合收益,为大型综合能源基地的日前优化调度提供技术支撑。
文摘党的二十大报告提出,积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和。能源结构调整是实现碳中和目标的重要途径,从碳排放产生机制与经济增长的共生关系出发,将经济高质量发展纳入碳中和目标考虑范畴。基于长三角地区3省1市2017年投入产出表,构建区域宏、微观SAM表及能源结构调整模拟分析CGE(computable general equilibrium)模型,建立长三角地区宏观经济闭合系统,研究能源结构调整对长三角地区的经济影响及其差异性。研究发现:1)长三角各区域随着能源结构转型不断推进,其经济影响存在明显差异性,以江苏省为例,当清洁能源替代5%、10%、15%、20%时,江苏省能源结构调整的多数经济指标的经济影响以替代5%时的损失最多,替代10%时的损失小于替代5%、15%时的损失;2)长三角各区域经济发展对传统化石能源的依赖程度存在较大差异,安徽省、上海市经济发展受到能源结构调整的影响较低,江苏省次之,浙江省受到能源结构调整的影响最大;3)随着能源结构调整不断推进,长三角部分区域的经济影响存在阶段性浮动,以江苏省为例,当清洁能源替代10%时,多数经济指标,如农业、制造业、服务业部门的产出以及GDP、政府收入等的经济影响均小于清洁能源替代5%、15%时产生的影响。能源结构调整对长三角地区乃至全国各地实现碳中和目标至关重要,亟须关注。
