A model of continuous-time insider trading in which a risk-neutral in-sider possesses two imperfect correlated signals of a risky asset is studied.By conditional expectation theory and filtering theory,we first establ...A model of continuous-time insider trading in which a risk-neutral in-sider possesses two imperfect correlated signals of a risky asset is studied.By conditional expectation theory and filtering theory,we first establish three lemmas:normal corre-lation,equivalent pricing and equivalent profit,which can guarantee to turn our model into a model with insider knowing full information.Then we investigate the impact of the two correlated signals on the market equilibrium consisting of optimal insider trading strategy and semi-strong pricing rule.It shows that in the equilibrium,(1)the market depth is constant over time;(2)if the two noisy signals are not linerly correlated,then all private information of the insider is incorporated into prices in the end while the whole information on the asset value can not incorporated into prices in the end;(3)if the two noisy signals are linear correlated such that the insider can infer the whole information of the asset value,then our model turns into a model with insider knowing full information;(4)if the two noisy signals are the same then the total ex ant profit of the insider is increasing with the noise decreasing,while down to O as the noise going up to infinity;(5)if the two noisy signals are not linear correlated then with one noisy signal fixed,the total ex ante profit of the insider is single-peaked with a unique minimum with respect to the other noisy signal value,and furthermore as the noisy value going to O it gets its maximum,the profit in the case that the real value is observed.展开更多
Taking the return series of the EU carbon allowance price, WTI crude oil price, the European renewable energy index and Shenzhen carbon emission price, Daqing crude oil price, the China securities new energy index as ...Taking the return series of the EU carbon allowance price, WTI crude oil price, the European renewable energy index and Shenzhen carbon emission price, Daqing crude oil price, the China securities new energy index as sample data, the multifractal detrend cross-correlation analysis method(MF-DCCA)is used to research the dynamic cross-correlation relationships among the carbon emission market, crude oil market and the new energy market in Europe and China and the source of the multifractality. The empirical analysis shows that the cross-correlations among the carbon emission market, crude oil market and new energy market in Europe and China have all significant multifractal characteristics. Moreover, the multifractal strength of cross-correlation between the carbon emission market and crude oil market is less than that between the carbon emission market and new energy market in Europe. The Chinese market is the opposite. In addition, the multifractal strength of cross-correlation between the crude oil market and new energy market in Europe is more than that between the crude oil market and new energy market in China. It is also found that the long-range correlation of the sequences themselves and the fat-tailed distribution in fluctuations are the common causes of the multifractality, and the fat-tailed in fluctuations distribution contributes more to the multifractals of the series.展开更多
Investigation of the dynamic correlation between financial markets has important and realistic meaning for the market portfolio, but the dynamic correlation between financial markets often shows ＂nonlinear and asymme...Investigation of the dynamic correlation between financial markets has important and realistic meaning for the market portfolio, but the dynamic correlation between financial markets often shows ＂nonlinear and asymmetrical ＂features, The Copula model can effectively solve these problems. This paper aims to study the dynamic correlation between the second board market and SME board market by building Copula models to the return series of the two boards＇ indexes and calculating the dynamic correlation coefficient between the two markets. The study results show as the following：（1） there is positive correlation between the second board market and SME board market and the correlation is very strong; （2） time-varying Copula model is better than constant correlation Copula model in describing the correlations among financial markets as it captures market return＇ s feature of time-varying; （3） The upper ant lower tail dependence coefficient between GEM and SME board market shows less linkage risk has been found; The upper tail dependence coefficient is bigger than the lower tail dependence coefficient, means that the linkage risk is asymmetric, that is to say the tail dependence coefficient is much stronger in the bear market; The upper tail dependence coefficient and lower tail dependence coefficients are both in the stable interval, the overall volatility is small.展开更多
We propose and apply a new algorithm of principal component analysis which is suitable for a large sized, highly random time series data, such as a set of stock prices in a stock market. This algorithm utilizes the fa...We propose and apply a new algorithm of principal component analysis which is suitable for a large sized, highly random time series data, such as a set of stock prices in a stock market. This algorithm utilizes the fact that the major part of the time series is random, and compare the eigenvalue spectrum of cross correlation matrix of a large set of random time series, to the spectrum derived by the random matrix theory (RMT) at the limit of large dimension (the number of independent time series) and long enough length of time series. We test this algorithm on the real tick data of American stocks at different years between 1994 and 2002 and show that the extracted principal components indeed reflects the change of leading stock sectors during this period.展开更多
文摘A model of continuous-time insider trading in which a risk-neutral in-sider possesses two imperfect correlated signals of a risky asset is studied.By conditional expectation theory and filtering theory,we first establish three lemmas:normal corre-lation,equivalent pricing and equivalent profit,which can guarantee to turn our model into a model with insider knowing full information.Then we investigate the impact of the two correlated signals on the market equilibrium consisting of optimal insider trading strategy and semi-strong pricing rule.It shows that in the equilibrium,(1)the market depth is constant over time;(2)if the two noisy signals are not linerly correlated,then all private information of the insider is incorporated into prices in the end while the whole information on the asset value can not incorporated into prices in the end;(3)if the two noisy signals are linear correlated such that the insider can infer the whole information of the asset value,then our model turns into a model with insider knowing full information;(4)if the two noisy signals are the same then the total ex ant profit of the insider is increasing with the noise decreasing,while down to O as the noise going up to infinity;(5)if the two noisy signals are not linear correlated then with one noisy signal fixed,the total ex ante profit of the insider is single-peaked with a unique minimum with respect to the other noisy signal value,and furthermore as the noisy value going to O it gets its maximum,the profit in the case that the real value is observed.
基金supported by the Jiangsu postgraduate research and practice innovation program (Grant No. KYCX18_1386)
文摘Taking the return series of the EU carbon allowance price, WTI crude oil price, the European renewable energy index and Shenzhen carbon emission price, Daqing crude oil price, the China securities new energy index as sample data, the multifractal detrend cross-correlation analysis method(MF-DCCA)is used to research the dynamic cross-correlation relationships among the carbon emission market, crude oil market and the new energy market in Europe and China and the source of the multifractality. The empirical analysis shows that the cross-correlations among the carbon emission market, crude oil market and new energy market in Europe and China have all significant multifractal characteristics. Moreover, the multifractal strength of cross-correlation between the carbon emission market and crude oil market is less than that between the carbon emission market and new energy market in Europe. The Chinese market is the opposite. In addition, the multifractal strength of cross-correlation between the crude oil market and new energy market in Europe is more than that between the crude oil market and new energy market in China. It is also found that the long-range correlation of the sequences themselves and the fat-tailed distribution in fluctuations are the common causes of the multifractality, and the fat-tailed in fluctuations distribution contributes more to the multifractals of the series.
文摘Investigation of the dynamic correlation between financial markets has important and realistic meaning for the market portfolio, but the dynamic correlation between financial markets often shows ＂nonlinear and asymmetrical ＂features, The Copula model can effectively solve these problems. This paper aims to study the dynamic correlation between the second board market and SME board market by building Copula models to the return series of the two boards＇ indexes and calculating the dynamic correlation coefficient between the two markets. The study results show as the following：（1） there is positive correlation between the second board market and SME board market and the correlation is very strong; （2） time-varying Copula model is better than constant correlation Copula model in describing the correlations among financial markets as it captures market return＇ s feature of time-varying; （3） The upper ant lower tail dependence coefficient between GEM and SME board market shows less linkage risk has been found; The upper tail dependence coefficient is bigger than the lower tail dependence coefficient, means that the linkage risk is asymmetric, that is to say the tail dependence coefficient is much stronger in the bear market; The upper tail dependence coefficient and lower tail dependence coefficients are both in the stable interval, the overall volatility is small.
文摘We propose and apply a new algorithm of principal component analysis which is suitable for a large sized, highly random time series data, such as a set of stock prices in a stock market. This algorithm utilizes the fact that the major part of the time series is random, and compare the eigenvalue spectrum of cross correlation matrix of a large set of random time series, to the spectrum derived by the random matrix theory (RMT) at the limit of large dimension (the number of independent time series) and long enough length of time series. We test this algorithm on the real tick data of American stocks at different years between 1994 and 2002 and show that the extracted principal components indeed reflects the change of leading stock sectors during this period.
