Physiology and health assessment,risk balance,and model for endstage liver disease scores:Postoperative outcome of liver transplantation

BACKGROUND Liver transplantation aims to increase the survival of patients with end-stage liver diseases and improve their quality of life.The number of organs available for transplantation is lower than the demand.To provide fair organ distribution,predictive mortality scores have been developed.AIM To compare the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV(APACHE IV),balance of risk(BAR),and model for end-stage liver disease(MELD)scores as predictors of mortality.METHODS Retrospective cohort study,which included 283 adult patients in the postoperative period of deceased donor liver transplantation from 2014 to 2018.RESULTS The transplant recipients were mainly male,with a mean age of 58.1 years.Donors were mostly male,with a mean age of 41.6 years.The median cold ischemia time was 3.1 hours,and the median intensive care unit stay was 5 days.For APACHE IV,a mean of 59.6 was found,BAR 10.7,and MELD 24.2.The 28-day mortality rate was 9.5%,and at 90 days,it was 3.5%.The 28-day mortality prediction for APACHE IV was very good[area under the curve(AUC):0.85,P<0.001,95%CI:0.76-0.94],P<0.001,BAR(AUC:0.70,P<0.001,95%CI:0.58–0.81),and MELD(AUC:0.66,P<0.006,95%CI:0.55-0.78),P<0.008.At 90 days,the data for APACHE IV were very good(AUC:0.80,P<0.001,95%CI:0.71–0.90)and moderate for BAR and MELD,respectively,(AUC:0.66,P<0.004,95%CI:0.55–0.77),(AUC:0.62,P<0.026,95%CI:0.51–0.72).All showed good discrimination between deaths and survivors.As for the best value for liver transplantation,it was significant only for APACHE IV(P<0.001).CONCLUSION The APACHE IV assessment score was more accurate than BAR and MELD in predicting mortality in deceased donor liver transplant recipients.

Hybrid model for BOF oxygen blowing time prediction based on oxygen balance mechanism and deep neural network

The amount of oxygen blown into the converter is one of the key parameters for the control of the converter blowing process,which directly affects the tap-to-tap time of converter. In this study, a hybrid model based on oxygen balance mechanism (OBM) and deep neural network (DNN) was established for predicting oxygen blowing time in converter. A three-step method was utilized in the hybrid model. First, the oxygen consumption volume was predicted by the OBM model and DNN model, respectively. Second, a more accurate oxygen consumption volume was obtained by integrating the OBM model and DNN model. Finally, the converter oxygen blowing time was calculated according to the oxygen consumption volume and the oxygen supply intensity of each heat. The proposed hybrid model was verified using the actual data collected from an integrated steel plant in China, and compared with multiple linear regression model, OBM model, and neural network model including extreme learning machine, back propagation neural network, and DNN. The test results indicate that the hybrid model with a network structure of 3 hidden layer layers, 32-16-8 neurons per hidden layer, and 0.1 learning rate has the best prediction accuracy and stronger generalization ability compared with other models. The predicted hit ratio of oxygen consumption volume within the error±300 m^(3)is 96.67%;determination coefficient (R^(2)) and root mean square error (RMSE) are0.6984 and 150.03 m^(3), respectively. The oxygen blow time prediction hit ratio within the error±0.6 min is 89.50%;R2and RMSE are0.9486 and 0.3592 min, respectively. As a result, the proposed model can effectively predict the oxygen consumption volume and oxygen blowing time in the converter.

Multi-Model Approach for Assessing the Influence of Calibration Criteria on the Water Balance in Ouémé Basin

Hydrological models are very useful tools for evaluating water resources, and the hydroclimatic hazards associated with the water cycle. However, their calibration and validation require the use of performance criteria which choice is not straightforward. This paper aims to evaluate the influence of the performance criteria on water balance components and water extremes using two global rainfall-runoff models (HBV and GR4J) over the Ouémé watershed at the Bonou and Savè outlets. Three (3) Efficacy criteria (Nash, coefficient of determination, and KGE) were considered for calibration and validation. The results show that the Nash criterion provides a good assessment of the simulation of the different parts of the hydrograph. KGE is better for simulating peak flows and water balance elements than other efficiency criteria. This study could serve as a basis for the choice of performance criteria in hydrological modelling.

Model Predictive Control for Cascaded H-Bridge PV Inverter with Capacitor Voltage Balance

We designed an improved direct-current capacitor voltage balancing control model predictive control(MPC)for single-phase cascaded H-bridge multilevel photovoltaic(PV)inverters.Compared with conventional voltage balanc-ing control methods,the method proposed could make the PV strings of each submodule operate at their maximum power point by independent capacitor voltage control.Besides,the predicted and reference value of the grid-connected current was obtained according to the maximum power output of the maximum power point tracking.A cost function was con-structed to achieve the high-precision grid-connected control of the CHB inverter.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed control method was verified through a semi-physical simulation platform with three submodules.

Energy Balance-Based SWAT Model to Simulate the Mountain Snowmelt and Runoff——Taking the Application in Juntanghu Watershed(China) as an Example

In order to predict long-term flooding under extreme weather conditions in central Asia, an energy balance-based distributed snowmelt runoff model was developed and coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model. The model was tested at the Juntanghu watershed on the northern slope of the Tian Shan Mountains, Xinjiang,China. We compared the performances of temperature-index method and energy balanced method in SWAT model by taking Juntanghu river basin as an application example(as the simulation experiment was conducted in Juntanghu River, we call the energy balanced method as SWAT-JTH). The results suggest that the SWAT snowmelt model had overall Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE) coefficients ranging from 0.61 to 0.85 while the physical based approach had NSE coefficients ranging from 0.58 to0.69. Overall, on monthly scale, the SWAT model provides better results than that from the SWAT-JTH model. However, results generated from both methods seem to be fairly close at a daily scale. Thestructure of the temperature-index method is simple and produces reasonable simulation results if the parameters are well within empirical ranges. Although the data requirement for the energy balance method in current observation is difficult to meet and the existence of uncertainty is associated with the experimental approaches of physical processes, the SWAT-JTH model still produced a reasonably high NSE. We conclude that using temperature-index methods to simulate the snowmelt process is sufficient, but the energy balance-based model is still a good choice to simulate extreme weather conditions especially when the required data input for the model is acquired.

Mass Balance Modeling for Electric Arc Furnace and Ladle Furnace System in Steelmaking Facility in Turkey

In the electric arc furnace （EAF） steel production processes, scrap steel is principally used as a raw material instead of iron ore. In the steelmaking process with EAF, scrap is first melted in the furnace and then the desired chemical composition of the steel can be obtained in a special furnace such as ladle furnace （LF）. This kind of furnace process is used for the secondary refining of alloy steel. LF furnace offers strong heating fluxes and enables precise temperature control, thereby allowing for the addition of desired amounts of various alloying elements. It also provides outstanding desulfurization at high-temperature treatment by reducing molten steel fluxes and removing deoxidation products. Elemental analysis with mass balance modeling is important to know the precise amount of required alloys for the LF input with respect to scrap composition. In present study, chemical reactions with mass conservation law in EAF and LF were modeled altogether as a whole system and chemical compositions of the final steel alloy output can be obtained precisely according to different scrap compositions, alloying elements ratios, and other input amounts. Besides, it was found that the mass efficiency for iron element in the system is 95.93%. These efficiencies are calculated for all input elements as 8. 45% for C, 30.31% for Si, 46.36% for Mn, 30.64% for P, 41.96% for S, and 69.79% for Cr, etc. These efficiencies provide valuable ideas about the amount of the input materials that are vanished or combusted for 100 kg of each of the input materials in the EAF and LF system.

Simplified Homogeneous Balance Method and Its Applications to the Whitham-Broer-Kaup Model Equations

A nonlinear transformation of the Whitham-Broer-Kaup (WBK) model equations in the shallow water small-amplitude regime is derived by using a simplified homogeneous balance method. The WBK model equations are linearized under the nonlinear transformation. Various exact solutions of the WBK model equations are obtained via the nonlinear transformation with the aid of solutions for the linear equation.

A Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model for Analyzing Impacts of Land Cover Change on Flow Regimes

The Miyun Reservoir is the most important water source for Beijing Municipality, the capital of China with a population of more than 12 million. In recent decades, the inflow to the reservoir has shown a decreasing trend, which has seriously threatened water use in Beijing. In order to analyze the influents of land use and cover change (LUCC) upon inflow to Miyun Reservoir, terrain and land use information from remote sensing were utilized with a revised evapotranspiration estimation formula; a water loss model under conditions of human impacts was introduced; and a distributed monthly water balance model was established and applied to the Chaobai River Basin controlled by the Miyun Reservoir. The model simulation suggested that not only the impact of land cover change on evapotranspiration, but also the extra water loss caused by human activities, such as the water and soil conservation development projects should be considered. Although these development projects were of great benefit to human and ecological protection, they could reallocate water resources in time and space, and in a sense thereby influence the stream flow.

CFD simulation of gas–liquid flow in a high-pressure bubble column with a modified population balance model

In this study,based on the Luo bubble coalescence model,a model correction factor C_e for pressures according to the literature experimental results was introduced in the bubble coalescence efficiency term.Then,a coupled modified population balance model(PBM) with computational fluid dynamics(CFD) was used to simulate a high-pressure bubble column.The simulation results with and without C_e were compared with the experimental data.The modified CFD-PBM coupled model was used to investigate its applicability to broader experimental conditions.These results showed that the modified CFD-PBM coupled model can predict the hydrodynamic behaviors under various operating conditions.

Application of the Method of Characteristics to Population Balance Models Considering Growth and Nucleation Phenomena

The population balance modeling is regarded as a universally accepted mathematical framework for dynamic simulation of various particulate processes, such as crystallization, granulation and polymerization. This article is concerned with the application of the method of characteristics (MOC) for solving population balance models describing batch crystallization process. The growth and nucleation are considered as dominant phenomena, while the breakage and aggregation are neglected. The numerical solutions of such PBEs require high order accuracy due to the occurrence of steep moving fronts and narrow peaks in the solutions. The MOC has been found to be a very effective technique for resolving sharp discontinuities. Different case studies are carried out to analyze the accuracy of proposed algorithm. For validation, the results of MOC are compared with the available analytical solutions and the results of finite volume schemes. The results of MOC were found to be in good agreement with analytical solutions and superior than those obtained by finite volume schemes.

Modeling approaches to pressure balance dynamic system in shield tunneling

In order to deal with modeling problem of a pressure balance system with time-delay, nonlinear, time-varying and uncertain characteristics, an intelligent modeling procedure is proposed, which is based on artificial neural network(ANN) and input-output data of the system during shield tunneling and can overcome the precision problem in mechanistic modeling(MM) approach. The computational results show that the training algorithm with Gauss-Newton optimization has fast convergent speed. The experimental investigation indicates that, compared with mechanistic modeling approach, intelligent modeling procedure can obviously increase the precision in both soil pressure fitting and forecasting period. The effectiveness and accuracy of proposed intelligent modeling procedure are verified in laboratory tests.

Observation and modelling of snow and sea ice mass balance and its sensitivity to atmospheric forcing during spring and summer 2007 in the Central Arctic

Snow depth and sea ice thickness were observed applying an ice mass balance buoy(IMB)in the drifting ice station Tara during the International Polar Year in 2007.Detailed in situ observations on meteorological variables and surface fluxes were taken during May to August.For this study,the operational analyses and short-term forecasts from two numerical weather prediction(NWP)models(ECMWF and HIRLAM)were extracted for the Tara drift trajectory.We compared the IMB,meteorological and surface flux observations against the NWP products,also applying a one-dimensional thermodynamic sea ice model(HIGHTSI)to calculate the snow and ice mass balance and its sensitivity to atmospheric forcing.The modelled snow depth time series,controlled by NWP-based precipitation,was in line with the observed one.HIGHTSI reproduced well the snowmelt onset,the progress of the melt,and the first date of snow-free conditions.HIGHTSI performed well also in the late August freezing season.Challenges remain to model the“false bottom”observed during the melting season.The evolution of the vertical temperature profiles in snow and ice was better simulated when the model was forced by in situ observations instead of NWP results.During the melting period,the nonlinear ice temperature profile was successfully modelled with both forcing options.During spring and the melting season,total sea ice mass balance was most sensitive to uncertainties in NWP results for the downward longwave radiation,followed by the downward shortwave radiation,air temperature,and wind speed.

Balance of Datum Land Prices Among Cities Based on the City Gravitation Model and Stochastic Diffusion Equation

A balance of urban datum land prices is achieved to harmonize regional land prices and make the prices truly reflect different economic development levels and land prices among cities. The current piecewise linear interpolation balance method widely used has two drawbacks that always lead to an unsatisfactory balance among some cities. When the excess of land price in the central city to the surrounding zone reaches a certain degree, land price in the circumjacent city is not only consistent with the local land grade and land use level, but also influenced by the diffusion of land price in the central city. Thus, a new balanced scheme of datum land prices based on the city gravitation model and stochastic diffusion equation is brought forward. Finally, the new method is examined in the practice of datum land price balance in Hubei Province, China.

Modelling Wave Transmission and Overtopping Based on Energy Balance Equation

Wave transmission and overtopping around nearshore breakwaters can have significant influence on the transmitted wave parameters,which affects wave conditions and sediment transportation and becomes the focus of design in engineering.The objective of this paper is to present a simplified model to estimate these important wave parameters.This paper describes the incorporation of wave transmission and overtopping module into a wave model for multi-directional random wave transformation based on energy balance equation with the consideration of wave shoaling,refraction,diffraction,reflection and breaking.Wen's frequency spectrum and non-linear dispersion relation are also included in this model.The influence of wave parameters of transmitted waves through a smooth submerged breakwater has been considered in this model with an improved description of the transmitted wave spectrum of van der Meer et al.(2000) by Carevic et al.(2013).This improved wave model has been validated through available laboratory experiments.Then the verified model is applied to investigate the effect of wave transmission and overtopping on wave heights behind low-crested breakwaters in a project for nearshore area.Numerical calculations are carried out with and without consideration of the wave transmission and overtopping,and comparison of them indicates that there is a considerable difference in wave height and thus it is important to include wave transmission and overtopping in modelling nearshore wave field with the presence of low-crested breakwaters.Therefore,this model can provide a general estimate of the desired wave field parameters,which is adequate for engineers at the preliminary design stage of low-crested breakwaters.

Source Apportionment of Ambient PM_(10) in the Urban Area of Longyan City,China:a Comparative Study Based on Chemical Mass Balance Model and Factor Analysis Method

In order to identify the day and night pollution sources of PM10 in ambient air in Longyan City,the authors analyzed the elemental composition of respirable particulate matters in the day and night ambient air samples and various pollution sources which were collected in January 2010 in Longyan with inductivity coupled plasma-mass spectrometry（ICP-MS）.Then chemical mass balance（CMB） model and factor analysis（FA） method were applied to comparatively study the inorganic components in the sources and receptor samples.The results of factor analysis show that the major sources were road dust,waste incineration and mixed sources which contained automobile exhaust,soil dust/secondary dust and coal dust during the daytime in Longyan City,China.There are two major sources of pollution which are soil dust and mixture sources of automobile exhaust and secondary dust during the night in Longyan.The results of CMB show that the major sources are secondary dust,automobile exhaust and road dust during the daytime in Longyan.The major sources are secondary dust,soil dust and automobile exhaust during the night in Longyan.The results of the two methods are similar to each other and the results will guide us to plan to control the PM10 pollution sources in Longyan.

A Population Balance Model for Disperse Systems:Particle Size Distribution in Suspension Polymerization

On the basis of population balance a mathematical model is developed to describe the formation of polymer particle in styrene suspension polymerization. The characteristics of coalescence and breakage of droplets and the gel effect are analyzed in particular. Parameters of the models are estimated by experimental data on reaction conversion and particle size distribution. The results show that the model is suitable for predicting polymerization processes.

BALANCED TRUNCATED MODELS OF C INTERCONNECT CIRCUITS AND THEIR SIMULATION

The Balanced Truncation Method (BTM) is applied to an even distributed RC interconnect case by using Wang's closed-forms of even distributed RC interconnect models. The results show that extremely high order RC interconnect can be high-accurately approximated by only third order balanced model. Related simulations are executed in both time domain and frequency domain. The results may be applied to VLSI interconnect model reduction and design.

Analysis of hohlraum energetics of the SG series and the NIF experiments with energy balance model

The basic energy balance model is applied to analyze the hohlraum energetics data from the Shenguang(SG)series laser facilities and the National Ignition Facility(NIF)experiments published in the past few years.The analysis shows that the overall hohlraum energetics data are in agreement with the energy balance model within 20%deviation.The 20%deviation might be caused by the diversity in hohlraum parameters,such as material,laser pulse,gas filling density,etc.In addition,the NIF's ignition target designs and our ignition target designs given by simulations are also in accordance with the energy balance model.This work confirms the value of the energy balance model for ignition target design and experimental data assessment,and demonstrates that the NIF energy is enough to achieve ignition if a 1D spherical radiation drive could be created,meanwhile both the laser plasma instabilities and hydrodynamic instabilities could be suppressed.

Origin of Cu in the PACMANUS hydrothermal field from the eastern Manus back-arc basin: evidence from mass balance modeling

Hydrothermal precipitates associated with active vents in the eastern Manus Basin, an actively opening back-arc basin in the Bismarck Sea, Papua New Guinea, are among the most Cu-rich on the modern seafloor. The volcanic rocks associated with this mineralization may be insufficiently enriched in Cu to account for the Cu content of the sulfides by simple leaching. The PACMANUS hydrothermal field lies in the eastern portion of the eastern Manus Basin. Mass balance modeling of the PACMANUS hydrothermal system indicates that simple leaching of a stationary reaction zone (0.144 km^3) by hydrothermal fluids cannot yield the Cu found in associated sulfide deposits because unacceptably high leaching, transportation and precipitation efficiencies are required to derive the Cu in sulfides by leaching processes. With 100% leaching, transport and precipitating efficiency, 0.166 km^3 of volcanic rocks would need to be leached to account for the Cu budget of hydrothermal sulfide deposits. The key requirement for forming metal-rich magmatic fluids is a large amount of metals available to enter the exsolved vapor phase. Magmas generated in the eastern Manus Basin inherently have high fO2 because of metasomatism of the mantle source by oxidized materials from the subducted slab, leading to copper enrichment in the magma chamber. Moreover, the presence of Cu in gas-rich melt inclusi on bubbles in Pual Ridge andesite is evidence that degassing and partitioning of Cu into the magmatic volatile phase has occurred in the eastern Manus Basin. Numerical mass balance modeling indicates that approximately 0.236 Mt Cu was potentially transferred to the hydrothermal system per cubic kilometer magma. Magmatic degassing seems to play a more significant role than leaching.

An Integrated Hydrological Model for Water Balance Estimation in the Chirchik River Basin, Northern Uzbekistan

Accurate and detailed information of hydrological balance, and its dynamic nature is needed to develop strategies for sustainable use and management of water resources. In this concern, a fully integrated MIKE SHE model was developed to study the hydrological balance of the Chirchik River Basin, Uzbekistan. Parameters in the model were calibrated and simulated results were validated for the periods 2009-2011 and 2012-2013 in term of two observed hydrological parameters: streamflow rate and groundwater table. After the successful calibration of the parameters, the model produced quantitative results of the water cycle and provided better understanding of the surface and groundwater interactions. The results show that the hydrological balance is strongly dependent on the intensity of agricultural activity within the basin. An actual evapotranspiration was found as a main water loss element among the water transport components due to large-scale agricultural irrigation activities. This corresponds to 77% of the total water budget as an average. A satisfactory water balance simulation error was obtained after adjusting model parameters to basin environment.