On the Influences of Urbanization on the Extreme Rainfall over Zhengzhou on 20 July 2021: A Convection-Permitting Ensemble Modeling Study

This study investigates the influences of urban land cover on the extreme rainfall event over the Zhengzhou city in central China on 20 July 2021 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a convection-permitting scale[1-km resolution in the innermost domain(d3)].Two ensembles of simulation(CTRL,NURB),each consisting of 11 members with a multi-layer urban canopy model and various combinations of physics schemes,were conducted using different land cover scenarios:(i)the real urban land cover,(ii)all cities in d3 being replaced with natural land cover.The results suggest that CTRL reasonably reproduces the spatiotemporal evolution of rainstorms and the 24-h rainfall accumulation over the key region,although the maximum hourly rainfall is underestimated and displaced to the west or southwest by most members.The ensemble mean 24-h rainfall accumulation over the key region of heavy rainfall is reduced by 13%,and the maximum hourly rainfall simulated by each member is reduced by 15–70 mm in CTRL relative to NURB.The reduction in the simulated rainfall by urbanization is closely associated with numerous cities/towns to the south,southeast,and east of Zhengzhou.Their heating effects jointly lead to formation of anomalous upward motions in and above the planetary boundary layer(PBL),which exaggerates the PBL drying effect due to reduced evapotranspiration and also enhances the wind stilling effect due to increased surface friction in urban areas.As a result,the lateral inflows of moisture and high-θe(equivalent potential temperature)air from south and east to Zhengzhou are reduced.

Climate Changes in the 21st Century over the Asia-Pacific Region Simulated by the NCAR CSM and PCM

The Climate System Model (CSM) and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), two coupled global climate models without flux adjustments recently developed at NCAR, were used to simulate the 20th century climate using historical greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing. These simulations were extended through the 21st century under two newly developed scenarios, a business-as-usual case (BAU, CO2≈710 ppmv in 2100) and a CO2 stabilization case (STA550, CO2≈540 ppmv in 2100). The simulated changes in temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture over the Asia-Pacific region (10°-60°N, 55°-155°) are analyzed, with a focus on the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and climate changes over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Under the BAU scenario, both the models produce surface warming of about 3-5℃ in winter and 2-3℃ in summer over most Asia. Under the STA550 scenario, the warming is reduced by 0.5-1.0℃ in winter and by 0.5℃ in summer. The warming is fairly uniform at the low latitudes and does not induce significant changes in the zonal mean Hadley circulation over the Asia-Pacific do- main While the regional precipitation changes from single CSM integrations are noisy, the PCM ensemble mean precipitation shows 10%-30% increases north of ～ 30°N and～10% decreases south of ～ 30°N over the Asia-Pacific region in winter and 10%-20% increases in summer precipitation over most of the region. Soil moisture changes are small over most Asia The CSM single simulation suggests a 30% increase in river runoff into the Three Gorges Dam, but the PCM ensemble simulations show small changes in the runoff

Ensemble Simulation of Land Evapotranspiration in China Based on a Multi-Forcing and Multi-Model Approach

In order to reduce the uncertainty of offline land surface model （LSM） simulations of land evapotranspiration （ET）, we used ensemble simulations based on three meteorological forcing datasets [Princeton, ITPCAS （Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences）, Qian] and four LSMs （BATS, VIC, CLM3.0 and CLM3.5）, to explore the trends and spatiotemporal characteristics of ET, as well as the spatiotemporal pattern of ET in response to climate factors over China's Mainland during 1982-2007. The results showed that various simulations of each member and their arithmetic mean （EnsAVlean） could capture the spatial distribution and seasonal pattern of ET sufficiently well, where they exhibited more significant spatial and seasonal variation in the ET compared with observation-based ET estimates （Obs_MTE）. For the mean annual ET, we found that the BATS forced by Princeton forcing overestimated the annual mean ET compared with Obs_MTE for most of the basins in China, whereas the VIC forced by Princeton forcing showed underestimations. By contrast, the Ens_Mean was closer to Obs_MTE, although the results were underestimated over Southeast China. Furthermore, both the Obs_MTE and Ens_Mean exhibited a significant increasing trend during 1982-98; whereas after 1998, when the last big EI Nifio event occurred, the Ens_Mean tended to decrease significantly between 1999 and 2007, although the change was not significant for Obs_MTE. Changes in air temperature and shortwave radiation played key roles in the long-term variation in ET over the humid area of China, but precipitation mainly controlled the long-term variation in ET in arid and semi-arid areas of China.

Analysis of an Ensemble of High-Resolution WRF Simulations for the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Rammasun(2014)

Diagnostics are presented from an ensemble of high-resolution forecasts that differed markedly in their predictions of the rapid intensification(RI)of Typhoon Rammasun.We show that the basic difference stems from subtle differences in initializations of(a)500-850-h Pa environmental winds,and(b)midlevel moisture and ventilation.We then describe how these differences impact on the evolving convective organization,storm structure,and the timing of RI.As expected,ascent,diabatic heating and the secondary circulation near the inner-core are much stronger in the member that best forecasts the RI.The evolution of vortex cloudiness from this member is similar to the actual imagery,with the development of an inner cloud band wrapping inwards to form the eyewall.We present evidence that this structure,and hence the enhanced diabatic heating,is related to the tilt and associated dynamics of the developing inner-core in shear.For the most accurate ensemble member:(a)inhibition of ascent and a reduction in convection over the up-shear sector allow moistening of the boundary-layer air,which is transported to the down-shear sector to feed a developing convective asymmetry;(b)with minimal ventilation,undiluted clouds and moisture from the down-shear left quadrant are then wrapped inwards to the up-shear left quadrant to form the eyewall cloud;and(c)this process seems related to a critical down-shear tilt of the vortex from midlevels,and the vertical phase-locking of the circulation over up-shear quadrants.For the member that forecasts a much-delayed RI,these processes are inhibited by stronger vertical wind shear,initially resulting in poor vertical coherence of the circulation,lesser moisture and larger ventilation.Our analysis suggests that ensemble prediction is needed to account for the sensitivity of forecasts to a relatively narrow range of environmental wind shear,moisture and vortex inner-structure.

An efficient framework for ensemble of natural disaster simulations as a service

Calculations of risk from natural disasters may require ensembles of hundreds of thousands of simulations to accurately quantify the complex relationships between the outcome of a disaster and its contributing factors.Such large ensembles cannot typically be run on a single computer due to the limited computational resources available.Cloud Computing offers an attractive alternative,with an almost unlimited capacity for computation,storage,and network bandwidth.However,there are no clear mechanisms that define how to implement these complex natural disaster ensembles on the Cloud with minimal time and resources.As such,this paper proposes a system framework with two phases of cost optimization to run the ensembles as a service over Cloud.The cost is minimized through efficient distribution of the simulations among the cost-efficient instances and intelligent choice of the instances based on pricing models.We validate the proposed framework using real Cloud environment with real wildfire ensemble scenarios under different user requirements.The experimental results give an edge to the proposed system over the bag-of-task type execution on the Clouds with less cost and better flexibility.

Improving the simulation of terrestrial water storage anomalies over China using a Bayesian model averaging ensemble approach

The ability to estimate terrestrial water storage(TWS)is essential for monitoring hydrological extremes(e.g.,droughts and floods)and predicting future changes in the hydrological cycle.However,inadequacies in model physics and parameters,as well as uncertainties in meteorological forcing data,commonly limit the ability of land surface models(LSMs)to accurately simulate TWS.In this study,the authors show how simulations of TWS anomalies(TWSAs)from multiple meteorological forcings and multiple LSMs can be combined in a Bayesian model averaging(BMA)ensemble approach to improve monitoring and predictions.Simulations using three forcing datasets and two LSMs were conducted over China's Mainland for the period 1979–2008.All the simulations showed good temporal correlations with satellite observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment during 2004–08.The correlation coefficient ranged between 0.5 and 0.8 in the humid regions(e.g.,the Yangtze river basin,Huaihe basin,and Zhujiang basin),but was much lower in the arid regions(e.g.,the Heihe basin and Tarim river basin).The BMA ensemble approach performed better than all individual member simulations.It captured the spatial distribution and temporal variations of TWSAs over China's Mainland and the eight major river basins very well;plus,it showed the highest R value(>0.5)over most basins and the lowest root-mean-square error value(<40 mm)in all basins of China.The good performance of the BMA ensemble approach shows that it is a promising way to reproduce long-term,high-resolution spatial and temporal TWSA data.

The construction of general basis functions in reweighting ensemble dynamics simulations: Reproduce equilibrium distribution in complex systems from multiple short simulation trajectories

Ensemble simulations, which use multiple short independent trajectories from dispersive initial conformations, rather than a single long trajectory as used in traditional simulations, are expected to sample complex systems such as biomolecules much more efficiently. The re-weighted ensemble dynamics（RED） is designed to combine these short trajectories to reconstruct the global equilibrium distribution. In the RED, a number of conformational functions, named as basis functions,are applied to relate these trajectories to each other, then a detailed-balance-based linear equation is built, whose solution provides the weights of these trajectories in equilibrium distribution. Thus, the sufficient and efficient selection of basis functions is critical to the practical application of RED. Here, we review and present a few possible ways to generally construct basis functions for applying the RED in complex molecular systems. Especially, for systems with less priori knowledge, we could generally use the root mean squared deviation（RMSD） among conformations to split the whole conformational space into a set of cells, then use the RMSD-based-cell functions as basis functions. We demonstrate the application of the RED in typical systems, including a two-dimensional toy model, the lattice Potts model, and a short peptide system. The results indicate that the RED with the constructions of basis functions not only more efficiently sample the complex systems, but also provide a general way to understand the metastable structure of conformational space.

Reweighted ensemble dynamics simulations:Theory,improvement,and application

Based on multiple parallel short molecular dynamics simulation trajectories, we designed the reweighted ensem- ble dynamics （RED） method to more efficiently sample complex （biopolymer） systems, and to explore their hierarchical metastable states. Here we further present an improvement to depress statistical errors of the RED and we discuss a few keys in practical application of the RED, provide schemes on selection of basis functions, and determination of the free parameter in the RED. We illustrate the application of the improvements in two toy models and in the solvated alanine dipeptide. The results show the RED enables us to capture the topology of multiple-state transition networks, to detect the diffusion-like dynamical behavior in an entropy-dominated system, and to identify solvent effects in the solvated peptides. The illustrations serve as general applications of the RED in more complex biopolymer systems.

CWRF-based ensemble simulation of tropical cyclone activity near China and its sensitivity to the model physical parameterization schemes

To evaluate the downscaling ability with respect to tropical cyclones(TCs)near China and its sensitivity to the model physics representation,the authors performed a multi-physics ensemble simulation with the regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting(CWRF)model at a 30 km resolution driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis data.The ensemble consisted of 28 integrations during 1979-2016 with varying CWRF physics configurations.Both CWRF and ERA-Interim can generally capture the seasonal cycle and interannual variation of the TC number near China,but evidently underestimate them.The CWRF downscaling and its multi-physics ensemble can notably reduce the underestimation and significantly improve the simulation of the TC occurrences.The skill enhancement is especially large in terms of the interannual variation,which is most sensitive to the cumulus scheme,followed by the boundary layer,surface and radiation schemes,but weakly sensitive to the cloud and microphysics schemes.Generally,the Noah surface scheme,CAML(CAM radiation scheme as implemented by Liang together with the diagnostic cloud cover scheme of Xu and Randall(1996))radiation scheme,prognostic cloud scheme,and Thompson microphysics scheme stand out for their better performance in simulating the interannual variation of TC number.However,the Emanuel cumulus and MYNN boundary layer schemes produce severe interannual biases.Our study provides a valuable reference for CWRF application to improve the understanding and prediction of TC activity.

Intercomparison of multi-model ensemble-processing strategies within a consistent framework for climate projection in China

Climate change adaptation and relevant policy-making need reliable projections of future climate.Methods based on multi-model ensemble are generally considered as the most efficient way to achieve the goal.However,their efficiency varies and inter-comparison is a challenging task,as they use a variety of target variables,geographic regions,time periods,or model pools.Here,we construct and use a consistent framework to evaluate the performance of five ensemble-processing methods,i.e.,multimodel ensemble mean(MME),rank-based weighting(RANK),reliability ensemble averaging(REA),climate model weighting by independence and performance(ClimWIP),and Bayesian model averaging(BMA).We investigate the annual mean temperature(Tav)and total precipitation(Prcptot)changes(relative to 1995–2014)over China and its seven subregions at 1.5 and 2℃warming levels(relative to pre-industrial).All ensemble-processing methods perform better than MME,and achieve generally consistent results in terms of median values.But they show different results in terms of inter-model spread,served as a measure of uncertainty,and signal-to-noise ratio(SNR).ClimWIP is the most optimal method with its good performance in simulating current climate and in providing credible future projections.The uncertainty,measured by the range of 10th–90th percentiles,is reduced by about 30%for Tav,and 15%for Prcptot in China,with a certain variation among subregions.Based on ClimWIP,and averaged over whole China under 1.5/2℃global warming levels,Tav increases by about 1.1/1.8℃(relative to 1995–2014),while Prcptot increases by about 5.4%/11.2%,respectively.Reliability of projections is found dependent on investigated regions and indices.The projection for Tav is credible across all regions,as its SNR is generally larger than 2,while the SNR is lower than 1 for Prcptot over most regions under 1.5℃warming.The largest warming is found in northeastern China,with increase of 1.3(0.6–1.7)/2.0(1.4–2.6)℃(ensemble’s median and range of the 10th–90th percentiles)under 1.5/2℃warming,followed by northern and northwestern China.The smallest but the most robust warming is in southwestern China,with values exceeding 0.9(0.6–1.1)/1.5(1.1–1.7)℃.The most robust projection and largest increase is achieved in northwestern China for Prcptot,with increase of 9.1%(–1.6–24.7%)/17.9%(0.5–36.4%)under 1.5/2℃warming.Followed by northern China,where the increase is 6.0%(–2.6–17.8%)/11.8%(2.4–25.1%),respectively.The precipitation projection is of large uncertainty in southwestern China,even with uncertain sign of variation.For the additional half-degree warming,Tav increases more than 0.5℃throughout China.Almost all regions witness an increase of Prcptot,with the largest increase in northwestern China.

Climate Change Projections for Mediterranean Region with Focus over Alpine Region and Italy

Climate change projections over the Mediterranean region have been elaborated by using the outputs of ten ENSEMBLES regional climate simulations with an horizontal resolution of 25 km under the SRES A1B emission scenario. The analysis concerns some surface atmospheric variables： mean sea level pressure, temperature, precipitation and wind speed. At first, model validations have been performed by comparing model results with E-OBS and ERA-Interim data in reproducing the last decades over some Italian sub-areas and the Alpine region. In spite of the considerable spread in the models＇ performances to represent the reference climate, a multi-model reconstruction has been computed and some seasonal climate change projections have been elaborated. About the mean climate changes, the more significant signals expected by 2050 are a maximum warming （about 2 ~C） and maximum drying （about 20%） in the southern Europe in summer. Moreover, the results indicate an increasing risk for some severe weather conditions： more days of extremely high temperature in summer over the whole area, a greater occurrence of flooding and storms over coasts during spring and autumn seasons and a more serious wet-snow event over Alpine region in winter. No significant signals of wind changes have been detected.

Hierarchical Visual Analysis and Steering Framework for Astrophysical Simulations

A framework for accelerating modern long-running astrophysical simulations is presented, which is based on a hierarchical architecture where computational steering in the high-resolution run is performed under the guide of knowledge obtained in the gradually refined ensemble analyses. Several visualization schemes for facilitating ensemble management, error analysis, parameter grouping and tuning are also integrated owing to the pluggable modular design. The proposed approach is prototyped based on the Flash code, and it can be extended by introducing userdefined visualization for specific requirements. Two real-world simulations, i.e., stellar wind and supernova remnant, are carried out to verify the proposed approach.

The Uncertainty of Mesoscale Numerical Prediction of Heavy Rain in South China and the Ensemble Simulations

In the context of non-hydrostatic MM5 version we have explored the impact ofconvective parameterization schemes on uncertainty in mesoscale numerical prediction of South Chinaheavy rain and mesoscale heavy rainfall short-range ensemble simulation by using two kinds ofphysics perturbation methods through a heavy rain case occurring on June 8, 1998 in Guangdong andFujian Provinces. The results show the physical process of impacts of convective schemes on heavyrainfall is that different latent heat of convective condensation produced by different convectiveschemes can make local temperature perturbation, leading to the difference of local vertical speedby the intrinsic dynamic and thermodynamic processes of atmosphere, and therefore, making differenceof the timing, locations and strength of mesh scale and subgrid scale precipitation later. Newprecipitations become the new source of latent heat and temperature perturbation, which finally makethe dynamic and thermodynamic structures different in the simulations. Two kinds of methods areused to construct different model version stochastically. The first one is using differentconvective parameterization and planetary boundary layer schemes, the second is adjusting differentparameters of convective trigger functions in Grell scheme. The results indicate that the firstensemble simulations can provide more uncertainty information of location and strength of heavyrainfall than the second. The single determinate predictions of heavy rain are unstable; physicsensemble predictions can reflect the uncertainty of heavy rain, provide more useful guidance andhave higher application value. Physics ensembles suggest that model errors should be taken intoconsideration in the heavy rainfall ensembles. Although the method of using different parameters inGrell scheme could not produce good results, how to construct the perturbation model or adjust theparameter in one scheme according to the physical meaning of the parameter still needs furtherinvestigation. The limitation of the current study is that it is based on a single case and morecases will be addressed in the future researches.

Evaluation and Analysis of RegCM3 Simulated Summer Rainfall over the Huaihe River Basin of China

This study evaluates the ability of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics （ICTP） version 3 Regional Climate Model （RegCM3） in simulating the summer rainfall amount and distribution and large-scale circulation over the Huaihe River basin of China. We conducted the simulation for the period of 1982-2001 and the wet year of 2003 to test the ensemble simulation capacity of RegCM3. First, by comparing the simulated rainfall amount and distribution against the observations, it is found that RegCM3 can reproduce the rainfall pattern and its annual variations. In addition, the simulated spatial patterns of 850-hPa wind and specific humidity fields are close to the observations, although the wind speed and humidity values are larger. Finally, the ensemble simulation of RegCM3 for summer 2003 failed to capture the spatial distribution and underestimated the magnitude of the precipitation anomalies, and the reasons are analyzed.

Vapor-liquid equilibrium properties for confined binary mixtures involving CO_2,CH_4,and N_2 from Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo simulations

The effects of solid-fluid interactions on the vapor-liquid phase diagram,coexistence density,relative volatility and vaporization enthalpy have been investigated for confined binary systems of CO 2-CH 4,CO 2-N 2 and CH 4-N 2.The Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo(GEMC) simulation results indicate that the confinement and the solid-fluid interaction have significant influences on the vapor-liquid equilibrium properties.The confinement and the strength of the solid-fluid interaction make the p-x i phase diagram move to higher pressure regions.They also make the two-phase region become narrower for each binary mixture.The strength of the solid-fluid interactions can cause increases in the coexistence liquid and vapor densities,and cause the decrease of the relative volatility and the vaporization enthalpy for the systems studied.As the pore width is decreased,the two-phase region of the binary mixture becomes narrower.

Predictability and Risk of Extreme Winter PM_(2.5)Concentration in Beijing

Air pollution remains a serious environmental and social problem in many big cities in the world.How to predict and estimate the risk of extreme air pollution is unsettled yet.This study tries to provide a solution to this challenge by examining the winter PM_(2.5)concentration in Beijing based on the UNprecedented Simulation of Extremes with ENsembles(UNSEEN)method.The PM_(2.5)concentration observations in Beijing,Japanese 55-yr reanalysis data,and the Met Office near term climate prediction system(DePreSys3a)large ensemble simulations are used,and 10,000proxy series are generated with the model fidelity test.It is found that in Beijing,the main meteorological driver of PM_(2.5)concentration is monthly 850-hPa meridional wind(V850).Although the skill in prediction of V850 is low on seasonal and longer timescales,based on the UNSEEN,we use large ensemble of initialized climate simulations of V850 to estimate the current chance and risk of unprecedented PM_(2.5)concentration in Beijing.We unravel that there is a 3%(2.1%–3.9%)chance of unprecedented low monthly V850 corresponding to high PM_(2.5)in each winter,within the 95%range,calculated by bootstrap resampling of the data.Moreover,we use the relationship between air quality and winds to remove the meridional wind influence from the observed record,and find that anthropogenic intervention appears to have reduced the risk of extreme PM_(2.5)in Beijing in recent years.

The Persistent Heavy Rainfall over Southern China in June 2010:Evolution of Synoptic Systems and the Effects of the Tibetan Plateau Heating

This study investigates influencing weather systems for and the effect of Tibetan Plateau （TP）’s surface heating on the heavy rainfall over southern China in June 2010, focusing on the four persistent heavy rainfall events during 14-24 June 2010. The ma jor weather systems include the South Asian high, midlatitude trough and ridge, western Pacific subtropical high in the middle troposphere, and shear lines and eastward-moving vortices in the lower troposphere. An ensemble of convection-permitting simulations （CTL） is carried out with the WRF model for these rainfall events, which successfully reproduce the observed evolution of precipitation and weather systems. Another ensemble of simulations （SEN） with the surface albedo over the TP and its southern slope changed artificially to one, i.e., the surface does not absorb any solar heating, otherwise it is identical to CTL, is also performed. Comparison between CTL and SEN suggests that the surface sensible heating of TP in CTL significantly affects the temperature distributions over the plateau and its surroundings, and the thermal wind adjustment consequently changes atmospheric circulations and properties of the synoptic systems, leading to intensified precipitation over southern China. Specifically, at 200 hPa, anticyclonic and cyclonic anomalies form over the western and eastern plateau, respectively, which enhances the southward cold air intrusion along the eastern TP and the divergence over southern China;at 500 hPa, the ridge over the northern plateau and the trough over eastern China are strengthened, the southwesterly flows along the northwestern side of the subtropical high are intensified, and the positive vorticity propagation from the plateau to its downstream is also enhanced significantly;at 850 hPa, the low-pressure vortices strongly develop and move eastward while the southwesterly low-level jet over southern China strengthens in CTL, leading to increased water vapor convergence and upward motion over the precipitation region.