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Development of a global high-resolution marine dynamic environmental forecasting system
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作者 WAN Li-Ying LIU Yang LING Tie-Jun 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2018年第5期379-387,共9页
A project entitled‘Development of a Global High-resolution Marine Dynamic Environmental Forecasting System’has been funded by‘The Program on Marine Environmental Safety Guarantee’of The National Key Research and D... A project entitled‘Development of a Global High-resolution Marine Dynamic Environmental Forecasting System’has been funded by‘The Program on Marine Environmental Safety Guarantee’of The National Key Research and Development Program of China.This project will accomplish its objectives through basic theoretical research,model development and expansion,and system establishment and application,with a focus on four key issues separated into nine tasks.A series of research achievements have already been obtained,including datasets,observations,theories,and model results. 展开更多
关键词 Global high-resolution marine dynamic environmental forecasting system basic theoretical research model development and expansion system establishment and application
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Forecasting and Decision-Making of Systematic Theories for Engineering Geology in Environmental Geoscience
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作者 Wang Hongxing Yan Tongzhen +1 位作者 Tang Huiming Teng Weifu(Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074) 《Journal of Earth Science》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1999年第4期327-328,共2页
The paper discusses the problems of engineering geology in environmental geoscience from several aspects. For natural sciences and social sciences, it deduces essential theory from logistic cycle model, logic mapping ... The paper discusses the problems of engineering geology in environmental geoscience from several aspects. For natural sciences and social sciences, it deduces essential theory from logistic cycle model, logic mapping and Verhulst model. It had been discovered that these aspects are equal. However, these were the studies of normal effects. We must establish mathematical model to check from contrary course for gray forecasting and decision-making and answer several questions satisfactorily. 展开更多
关键词 environmental geoscience gray forecasting and decision-making engineering geology
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Research on Decision Support System (DSS) of Atmospheric Environment Management in Anhui Province Based on Air Quality Forecasting
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作者 Geng Tianzhao Ji Mian +4 位作者 Zhu Yu Wang Huan Dong Hao Zhao Xuhui Cheng Long 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2018年第4期61-65,共5页
With the atmospheric stereoscopic monitoring, air quality forecasting and decision of environment management as the main line, and comprehensive management system as the guidance, five platforms including infrastruct... With the atmospheric stereoscopic monitoring, air quality forecasting and decision of environment management as the main line, and comprehensive management system as the guidance, five platforms including infrastructure, technological support, monitoring and early monitoring, decision support and information services were established. These platforms have 15 subsystems, including stereoscopic monitoring network, visual business consultation, high-performance computing environment, comprehensive management of atmospheric data, emission inventories of pollu-tion sources, evaluation tools of atmospheric models, monitoring and management of air pollution, forecasting and early warning of air quality, diag-nostic analysis of atmospheric environment, tracking of air pollution sources, emergency management of air pollution, conformity management of air quality, comprehensive display of information, releasing of information to external networks, and releasing of information by mobile networks. The decision support system (DSS) of atmospheric environment management could realize an integration business system of 11 air quality forecast - heavy pollution weather warning - diagnosis of pollution causes (dynamic analysis of pollution sources) -air quality conformity planning (air pollu-tion emergency management) -evaluation of forecasting and warning results (evaluation pf management measures) -air quality forecasting" and provide the technical support for the prevention and control of atmosphere pollution in Anhui province. 展开更多
关键词 Atmospheric stereoscopic monitoring Air quality forecasting Decision of environmental management
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A New model to forecast fishing ground of Scomber japonicus in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea 被引量:5
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作者 GAO Feng CHEN Xinjun +1 位作者 GUAN Wenjiang LI Gang 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第4期74-81,共8页
The pelagic species is closely related to the marine environmental factors, and establishment of forecasting model of fishing ground with high accuracy is an important content for pelagic fishery. The chub mackerel(S... The pelagic species is closely related to the marine environmental factors, and establishment of forecasting model of fishing ground with high accuracy is an important content for pelagic fishery. The chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus) in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea is an important fishing target for Chinese lighting purse seine fishery. Based on the fishery data from China's mainland large-type lighting purse seine fishery for chub mackerel during the period of 2003 to 2010 and the environmental data including sea surface temperature(SST), gradient of the sea surface temperature(GSST), sea surface height(SSH) and geostrophic velocity(GV), we attempt to establish one new forecasting model of fishing ground based on boosted regression trees. In this study, the fishing areas with fishing effort is considered as one fishing ground, and the areas with no fishing ground are randomly selected from a background field, in which the fishing areas have no records in the logbooks. The performance of the forecasting model of fishing ground is evaluated with the testing data from the actual fishing data in 2011. The results show that the forecasting model of fishing ground has a high prediction performance, and the area under receiver operating curve(AUC) attains 0.897. The predicted fishing grounds are coincided with the actual fishing locations in 2011, and the movement route is also the same as the shift of fishing vessels, which indicates that this forecasting model based on the boosted regression trees can be used to effectively forecast the fishing ground of chub mackerel in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. 展开更多
关键词 Scomber japonicus environmental factors from remote sensing forecasting model of fishing ground Yellow Sea and East China Sea
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A STUDY ON QUALITY OF AQUATIC ENVIRONMENT IN TUMEN RIVER AREA
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作者 朱颜明 黎劲松 卢学强 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 1998年第2期31-40,共10页
ASTUDYONQUALITYOFAQUATICENVIRONMENTINTUMENRIVERAREA①ZhuYanming(朱颜明)ChangchunInstituteofGeography,theChineseA... ASTUDYONQUALITYOFAQUATICENVIRONMENTINTUMENRIVERAREA①ZhuYanming(朱颜明)ChangchunInstituteofGeography,theChineseAcademyofSciences,... 展开更多
关键词 POLLUTION sources AQUATIC environment QUALITY environmental forecast Tumen RIVER
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An Assessment of Potential Economic Gain from Weather Forecast Based Irrigation Scheduling for Marginal Farmers in Karnataka, Southern State in India
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作者 Rakesh Vasudevan Nair Ramesh Kalidas Vasanthakumar Eeanki Venkata Surya Prakasa Rao 《Agricultural Sciences》 2021年第5期503-512,共10页
This study is aimed to assess the usefulness of weather forecasts for irrigation scheduling in crops to economize water use. The short-term gains for the farmers come from reducing costs of irrigation with the help of... This study is aimed to assess the usefulness of weather forecasts for irrigation scheduling in crops to economize water use. The short-term gains for the farmers come from reducing costs of irrigation with the help of advisory for when not to irrigate because rain is predicted (risk-free because the wrong forecast only delays irrigation within tolerance). Here, a quantitative assessment of saving (indirect income) if irrigation is avoided as rain is imminent (as per forecast), using a five-year archived forecast data over Karnataka state at hobli (a cluster of small villages) level is presented. Estimates showed that the economic benefits to the farmers from such advisories were significant. The potential gain in annual income from such forecast-based irrigation scheduling was of the order of 10% - 15%. Our analysis also indicated that the use of advisory by a small percentage of more than 10 million marginal farmers (landholding < 3 acres) in Karnataka could lead to huge cumulative savings of the order of many crores. 展开更多
关键词 Agro-Advisories Economic Assessment environmental Benefits Irrigation Scheduling Weather forecast Models Weather Informatics
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Customer Information Disclosure and Analyst Forecasts : Empirical Evidence from Analysts' Perspective 被引量:1
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作者 Rui ZHAO Weisheng JIN 《Asian Agricultural Research》 2019年第2期32-37,共6页
Based on the company's disclosure of key customer information,the impact of corporate customer concentration on analyst forecast was studied,and we further studied the impact of detailed customer names on analyst ... Based on the company's disclosure of key customer information,the impact of corporate customer concentration on analyst forecast was studied,and we further studied the impact of detailed customer names on analyst forecasts. It is found that:(i) customer concentration significantly affects the accuracy of analyst forecasts. The higher the customer concentration is,the lower the accuracy of analyst forecasts is;(ii) Voluntary disclosure of customer names can provide incremental information to analysts and mitigate the negative impact of customer concentration on the accuracy of analyst forests;(iii) further research has found that the incremental information brought by the state-owned enterprises' disclosure of the customer names to analysts is more obvious; disclosure of customer names by companies with high environmental uncertainty is more likely to be of concern to analysts; and star analysts have a higher ability to interpret customer names than non-star analysts. 展开更多
关键词 ANALYST forecasts CUSTOMER information DISCLOSURE CUSTOMER concentration CORPORATE nature environmental uncertainty
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面向空天地一体化网络的数字孪生技术架构及应用 被引量:1
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作者 李媛 费泽松 +3 位作者 晁子云 黄靖轩 李斌 郑重 《移动通信》 2024年第1期95-102,共8页
详细探讨了数字孪生技术在空天地一体化通信中的具体架构,以及网络优化方面的应用。将数字孪生分为虚拟空天地一体化网络和智能决策层。虚拟网络是对物理空天地通信网的精准映射,支持实时监控和测试验证功能。在智能决策层,通过环境感... 详细探讨了数字孪生技术在空天地一体化通信中的具体架构,以及网络优化方面的应用。将数字孪生分为虚拟空天地一体化网络和智能决策层。虚拟网络是对物理空天地通信网的精准映射,支持实时监控和测试验证功能。在智能决策层,通过环境感知与业务预测实现网络优化。最后,验证了面向空天地一体化的数字孪生技术在动态通信网络优化中的巨大潜力,为网络优化的未来发展提供了创新思路。 展开更多
关键词 数字孪生技术 空天地一体化网络 环境感知 业务预测 网络优化
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改进白鲸优化卷积网络在银川市空气质量预测中的应用
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作者 雷冰冰 牟云飞 +1 位作者 王晓峰 韩镏 《安全与环境学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第10期4079-4093,共15页
空气质量指数(Air Quality Index,AQI)的精准预测对环境治理具有重要意义。研究针对影响银川市空气质量的PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)等6项污染物指标,提出基于因子分析法-改进白鲸优化算法-卷积神经网络(Factor Analysis-Improved Beluga Whale ... 空气质量指数(Air Quality Index,AQI)的精准预测对环境治理具有重要意义。研究针对影响银川市空气质量的PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)等6项污染物指标,提出基于因子分析法-改进白鲸优化算法-卷积神经网络(Factor Analysis-Improved Beluga Whale Optimization-Convolutional Neural Network,FA-IBWO-CNN)的复合AQI预测模型。该模型利用FA法对影响空气质量的6项污染物指标进行相关性分析,并通过计算因子载荷矩阵将新的因子映射到旧的污染物指标上,从而提出一种新的空气污染指标因子表示方式。在此基础上,采用IBWO算法与动态阈值策略和白鲸患病策略,计算训练深度神经网络所需的超参数,改善超参数寻优能力并提高模型收敛速率。研究以CNN作为基线模型,通过IBWO算法优化CNN的全连接层神经数和学习率,实现对银川市AQI预测。利用银川市历史空气质量数据进行试验,结果显示:FA-IBWO-CNN模型与未经优化的CNN模型相比,平均绝对误差(N_(MAE))、均方根误差(N_(RMSE))和平均百分比绝对误差(N_(MAPE))分别提升了56.15%、50.28%和13.943百分点,在预测方面表现出良好的性能。 展开更多
关键词 环境工程学 空气质量指数预测 因子分析法 改进白鲸优化算法 卷积神经网络
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常规海浪预报定量化检验评估方法研究
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作者 梁颖瑜 徐丽丽 +4 位作者 徐婷婷 姚圣康 于芸 郜海 马卫军 《海洋预报》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第1期10-20,共11页
常规海浪预报内容是一段文字,无法直接应用实况数据进行预报质量的检验评估。在详细调研全国海洋预报机构发布的海浪预报产品的基础上,应用东海预报减灾中心预报结果和实况数据进行反复测试与验证,制定了常规预报产品的处理规则,设计了... 常规海浪预报内容是一段文字,无法直接应用实况数据进行预报质量的检验评估。在详细调研全国海洋预报机构发布的海浪预报产品的基础上,应用东海预报减灾中心预报结果和实况数据进行反复测试与验证,制定了常规预报产品的处理规则,设计了检验评估方法;通过对存在问题的研讨与论证,重点解决评估波高最小值设定、观测点与预报海域面之间的关系、同一海域多点实况资料选取等定量化检验评估中的关键技术难点,提升了检验评估规则的合理性和适用性。 展开更多
关键词 海洋环境预报 海浪预报质量 检验评估 定量
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冰雹天气的环境参量及预报模型
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作者 衣娜娜 苏立娟 +4 位作者 郑旭程 辛悦 蔡敏 李慧 靳雨晨 《干旱区研究》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第1期13-23,共11页
利用1959—2021年内蒙古119个国家站的冰雹观测记录与ERA5再分析数据,对比分析冰雹与非冰雹层结、水汽、特殊温度层高度、垂直风切变及云微观物理量的差异,建立冰雹预报模型,为冰雹的潜势预报提供客观定量的依据。结果表明:冰雹、非冰雹... 利用1959—2021年内蒙古119个国家站的冰雹观测记录与ERA5再分析数据,对比分析冰雹与非冰雹层结、水汽、特殊温度层高度、垂直风切变及云微观物理量的差异,建立冰雹预报模型,为冰雹的潜势预报提供客观定量的依据。结果表明:冰雹、非冰雹K指数、假相当位温差、垂直风切变、比湿及云微观结构差异不显著。总指数(TT)>50℃,850 hPa与500 hPa温度差≥28.4℃,大气可降水量≤24 mm,-20℃层高度<7.05 km,-20℃距0℃高度≤3.15 km,以上环境参量阈值可以判别超过70%的冰雹样本,同时,反向条件能判别超过70%的非冰雹样本。基于环境参量的分析,采用Fisher判别方法,利用TT、850 hPa与500 hPa温度差、-20℃距0℃高度、大气可降水量建立冰雹预报模型,模型判别准确率超过80%。 展开更多
关键词 冰雹 降水 环境参量 冰雹预报模型 内蒙古
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Trace Elements in Lake Baikal: Current Status, Forecast and Monitoring Problems
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作者 V. A. Vetrov 《Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection》 2018年第3期66-82,共17页
Assessment of the current status of Lake Baikal proved to be based on changes in natural (“preindustrial”) chemical content in basic abiotic and biological compartments of the Lake geosystem. This approach was used ... Assessment of the current status of Lake Baikal proved to be based on changes in natural (“preindustrial”) chemical content in basic abiotic and biological compartments of the Lake geosystem. This approach was used to evaluate background “base-line levels” of 6 major and about 50 minor and trace ele-ments in the Lake Baikal water body using a number of most reliable data re-ported within 1992-2012. In terms of environment geochemistry Baikal is one of the purest water reservoirs on the Earth. A simple mass balance model was proposed for assessing possible anthropogenic impact on Baikal water geo-chemistry. Estimations of change trends showed that only for Na+, SO42-, Cl- and Mo growth rate of their average concentrations in the Lake occurred to be 1%, 3%, 7% and 2% in every 10 years. Space-time monitoring schedules for all water body compartments of the Lake are proposed as well as similar moni-toring programs for tributaries, precipitations, bottom sediments, aquatic biota. 展开更多
关键词 Lake BAIKAL environmental Geochemistry Status BASE-LINE Concentrations Trace Elements Change Trends forecast Mass BUDGET ANTHROPOGENIC Impact Eco-Geochemical MONITORING MONITORING Programs
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舟山市生态环境质量变化趋势及预测分析
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作者 缪斌妹 柴小平 +4 位作者 郑婉琳 孙毅 潘静芬 庄彤晖 王洪涛 《广州化工》 CAS 2024年第3期109-111,共3页
基于2013-2022年期间的生态环境监测数据,分析了舟山市生态环境质量变化趋势,并引入指数平滑法和灰色预测法对未来三年的演变趋势进行预测,结果表明:2022年,舟山市空气质量优良率为97.8%,地表水断面达标率为96.7%,海水优良率为51.7%;近... 基于2013-2022年期间的生态环境监测数据,分析了舟山市生态环境质量变化趋势,并引入指数平滑法和灰色预测法对未来三年的演变趋势进行预测,结果表明:2022年,舟山市空气质量优良率为97.8%,地表水断面达标率为96.7%,海水优良率为51.7%;近十年来舟山市空气、地表水、海水质量保持优良,且总体呈现稳中向好态势,主要污染因子有空气中的臭氧、地表水中的氨氮和总磷、海水中的无机氮和活性磷酸盐;模拟结果显示,未来三年舟山市环境质量主要超标指标将继续稳步下降,预计到2025年舟山市空气中臭氧、地表水中总磷、海水中无机氮的年均浓度分别为120μg/m^(3)、0.145 mg/L、0.343 mg/L。 展开更多
关键词 环境质量 变化趋势 预测
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时序数据分析下的生态环境变化监测与发展趋势预测 被引量:1
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作者 张宏飞 《测绘与空间地理信息》 2024年第4期92-95,共4页
生态环境监测与发展趋势预测已经成为城镇可持续发展关注的重点问题之一,对于平衡生态环境与城镇化发展具有重要意义。鉴于传统生态环境评价方法难以体现其客观性及有效性,本文基于长时序卫星遥感图像数据应用于生态环境变化评估的优势... 生态环境监测与发展趋势预测已经成为城镇可持续发展关注的重点问题之一,对于平衡生态环境与城镇化发展具有重要意义。鉴于传统生态环境评价方法难以体现其客观性及有效性,本文基于长时序卫星遥感图像数据应用于生态环境变化评估的优势,结合遥感生态指数与卷积神经网络模型评价乌鲁木齐的生态环境时空变化并预测未来发展趋势。 展开更多
关键词 遥感生态指数 卷积神经网络 环境变化监测 发展趋势预测
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生态环境监测在生态环境保护中的作用探析 被引量:6
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作者 潘再哲 《黑龙江环境通报》 2024年第2期45-47,共3页
本文探讨了生态环境监测在生态环境保护中的重要作用。首先,介绍了生态环境监测的定义和目标,详细阐述了它在监测与评估、预警与预报、政策制定与实施以及公众参与等方面的作用。然后,列举了一些生态环境监测的实际案例,并分析了其对生... 本文探讨了生态环境监测在生态环境保护中的重要作用。首先,介绍了生态环境监测的定义和目标,详细阐述了它在监测与评估、预警与预报、政策制定与实施以及公众参与等方面的作用。然后,列举了一些生态环境监测的实际案例,并分析了其对生态环境保护的贡献。最后,总结了生态环境监测的意义,并提出了未来发展的建议。 展开更多
关键词 生态环境监测 生态环境保护 监测与评估 预警与预报 政策制定与实施
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白蚁预测预报方法及其应用分析
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作者 李冬虎 杜尚根 +1 位作者 郭仁霞 杨静 《安徽农学通报》 2024年第20期76-80,共5页
预测预报在白蚁防控中发挥重要作用。本文对白蚁预测预报主要方法进行梳理,包括生物学特性观测法、环境因子分析法、数学模型预测法以及遥感与地理信息系统技术;分析当前白蚁预测预报技术在预测方法、预测精度、预测预报体系和公众认知... 预测预报在白蚁防控中发挥重要作用。本文对白蚁预测预报主要方法进行梳理,包括生物学特性观测法、环境因子分析法、数学模型预测法以及遥感与地理信息系统技术;分析当前白蚁预测预报技术在预测方法、预测精度、预测预报体系和公众认知等方面有待改进的环节;并在此基础上提出夯实白蚁防控基础研究与跨学科协同,推动技术创新与智能化应用,完善预测预报体系与标准化建设,以及加强科普宣传等建议,为白蚁预测预报技术的发展和应用提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 白蚁 预测预报技术 生物学特性 环境因子 数学模型 智能化技术
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我国未来能源消费及其对环境的影响分析 被引量:29
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作者 郑博福 邓红兵 +1 位作者 严岩 赵景柱 《环境科学》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2005年第3期1-6,共6页
随着我国经济的发展和城市化水平的提高,未来的能源消费状况及由此带来的环境污染问题日益受到人们的关注.本文简要回顾了1 980年以来我国能源消费状况并分析了相应的环境问题,对我国未来能源消费状况及可能带来的环境影响设置了3种情... 随着我国经济的发展和城市化水平的提高,未来的能源消费状况及由此带来的环境污染问题日益受到人们的关注.本文简要回顾了1 980年以来我国能源消费状况并分析了相应的环境问题,对我国未来能源消费状况及可能带来的环境影响设置了3种情景进行预测和分析,得出我国今后因能源消费的SO2 、NOx、CO2 和烟尘等排放量依然很高,但不同情景的预测结果有较大区别,并提出通过提高能源效率以及加强清洁、可再生能源的开发利用来解决能源消费带来的环境污染问题. 展开更多
关键词 能源消费 环境影响 预测 可持续发展
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环境污染的投影寻踪回归预测模型 被引量:9
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作者 彭荔红 李祚泳 +1 位作者 郑文教 肖金树 《厦门大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2002年第1期79-83,共5页
环境污染预测中常用的统计预测法基于“假定 -模拟 -预测”这样一种证实性数据分析思维模式 ,难以适应非线性、非正态分布数据分析 .投影寻踪技术采用“审视数据 -模拟 -预测”这样一条探索性数据分析新途径 ,可以用来解决一定程度上的... 环境污染预测中常用的统计预测法基于“假定 -模拟 -预测”这样一种证实性数据分析思维模式 ,难以适应非线性、非正态分布数据分析 .投影寻踪技术采用“审视数据 -模拟 -预测”这样一条探索性数据分析新途径 ,可以用来解决一定程度上的非线性、非正态问题 .应用投影寻踪回归新技术 ,建立了大气污染物SO2 浓度的预测模型 ,其预测建模样本的拟合合格率为 96 % ,预留预测检验样本预测准确率为 80 % 。 展开更多
关键词 环境污染 投影寻踪回归 环境预测 大气污染 二氧化硫 浓度预测
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矿山地质灾害主要类型及防治对策研究 被引量:46
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作者 郭维君 崔晓艳 +1 位作者 肖桂元 吴萌 《金属矿山》 CAS 北大核心 2010年第8期148-151,159,共5页
随着经济的快速发展,资源开采规模日益增大,给环境带来很大的压力,由于采矿本身的原因以及管理、技术、效益、意识等因素,地质灾害隐患严重,严重制约经济的可持续发展,必须引起高度重视。叙述了目前我国矿山普遍存在的主要地质灾害类型... 随着经济的快速发展,资源开采规模日益增大,给环境带来很大的压力,由于采矿本身的原因以及管理、技术、效益、意识等因素,地质灾害隐患严重,严重制约经济的可持续发展,必须引起高度重视。叙述了目前我国矿山普遍存在的主要地质灾害类型,并从技术上和非技术上指出地质灾害的控制措施:在非技术上加强立法;在技术上引入TSP预报系统、直流电法、超前钻孔等地质灾害预警预报方法,控制爆破等技术措施,以及运用环境岩土工程学作为指导对地质灾害进行防治;总结了前人的一些地质灾害治理研究经验。 展开更多
关键词 矿山开采 地质灾害TSP 预测预报 环境岩土工程
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新疆北部暖区强降雪中尺度环境与落区分析 被引量:31
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作者 庄晓翠 崔彩霞 +1 位作者 李博渊 张林梅 《高原气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2016年第1期129-142,共14页
利用常规气象观测资料、ECMWF、T639(1°×1°)再分析资料和FY-2C卫星云图资料,对2003—2013年11月至次年3月新疆北部出现26次12 h暖区强降雪天气过程的中尺度环境场特征和降雪落区进行了分析。结果表明:强降雪产生在极涡... 利用常规气象观测资料、ECMWF、T639(1°×1°)再分析资料和FY-2C卫星云图资料,对2003—2013年11月至次年3月新疆北部出现26次12 h暖区强降雪天气过程的中尺度环境场特征和降雪落区进行了分析。结果表明:强降雪产生在极涡型和短波低槽型两种环流形势下,强降雪区位于低槽前部,低空急流出口区前侧辐合区和高空急流入口区右侧辐散区以及700 hPa和850 hPa辐合线和暖切变线东部、北部及干线东南部,地面辐合线附近减压升温的重叠区域内。强降雪区上空,对流层整层为>80%高湿区;500 hPa以下具有不稳定层结、风垂直切变大、斜压性强;700hPa辐合线和850 hPa暖切变线及干线、地面干线及辐合线易触发不稳定能量的释放,从而为暴雪的产生提供水汽、热力和动力条件。暖区强降雪主要发生在中尺度冷云团开始缓慢减弱东移的前部及云顶亮温TBB梯度最大区域的前部。通过上述分析总结出暖区强降雪落区三维空间配置模型。 展开更多
关键词 新疆北部 暖区强降雪 中尺度环境场分析 预报着眼点
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