A project entitled‘Development of a Global High-resolution Marine Dynamic Environmental Forecasting System’has been funded by‘The Program on Marine Environmental Safety Guarantee’of The National Key Research and D...A project entitled‘Development of a Global High-resolution Marine Dynamic Environmental Forecasting System’has been funded by‘The Program on Marine Environmental Safety Guarantee’of The National Key Research and Development Program of China.This project will accomplish its objectives through basic theoretical research,model development and expansion,and system establishment and application,with a focus on four key issues separated into nine tasks.A series of research achievements have already been obtained,including datasets,observations,theories,and model results.展开更多
The paper discusses the problems of engineering geology in environmental geoscience from several aspects. For natural sciences and social sciences, it deduces essential theory from logistic cycle model, logic mapping ...The paper discusses the problems of engineering geology in environmental geoscience from several aspects. For natural sciences and social sciences, it deduces essential theory from logistic cycle model, logic mapping and Verhulst model. It had been discovered that these aspects are equal. However, these were the studies of normal effects. We must establish mathematical model to check from contrary course for gray forecasting and decision-making and answer several questions satisfactorily.展开更多
With the atmospheric stereoscopic monitoring, air quality forecasting and decision of environment management as the main line, and comprehensive management system as the guidance, five platforms including infrastruct...With the atmospheric stereoscopic monitoring, air quality forecasting and decision of environment management as the main line, and comprehensive management system as the guidance, five platforms including infrastructure, technological support, monitoring and early monitoring, decision support and information services were established. These platforms have 15 subsystems, including stereoscopic monitoring network, visual business consultation, high-performance computing environment, comprehensive management of atmospheric data, emission inventories of pollu-tion sources, evaluation tools of atmospheric models, monitoring and management of air pollution, forecasting and early warning of air quality, diag-nostic analysis of atmospheric environment, tracking of air pollution sources, emergency management of air pollution, conformity management of air quality, comprehensive display of information, releasing of information to external networks, and releasing of information by mobile networks. The decision support system (DSS) of atmospheric environment management could realize an integration business system of 11 air quality forecast - heavy pollution weather warning - diagnosis of pollution causes (dynamic analysis of pollution sources) -air quality conformity planning (air pollu-tion emergency management) -evaluation of forecasting and warning results (evaluation pf management measures) -air quality forecasting" and provide the technical support for the prevention and control of atmosphere pollution in Anhui province.展开更多
The pelagic species is closely related to the marine environmental factors, and establishment of forecasting model of fishing ground with high accuracy is an important content for pelagic fishery. The chub mackerel(S...The pelagic species is closely related to the marine environmental factors, and establishment of forecasting model of fishing ground with high accuracy is an important content for pelagic fishery. The chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus) in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea is an important fishing target for Chinese lighting purse seine fishery. Based on the fishery data from China's mainland large-type lighting purse seine fishery for chub mackerel during the period of 2003 to 2010 and the environmental data including sea surface temperature(SST), gradient of the sea surface temperature(GSST), sea surface height(SSH) and geostrophic velocity(GV), we attempt to establish one new forecasting model of fishing ground based on boosted regression trees. In this study, the fishing areas with fishing effort is considered as one fishing ground, and the areas with no fishing ground are randomly selected from a background field, in which the fishing areas have no records in the logbooks. The performance of the forecasting model of fishing ground is evaluated with the testing data from the actual fishing data in 2011. The results show that the forecasting model of fishing ground has a high prediction performance, and the area under receiver operating curve(AUC) attains 0.897. The predicted fishing grounds are coincided with the actual fishing locations in 2011, and the movement route is also the same as the shift of fishing vessels, which indicates that this forecasting model based on the boosted regression trees can be used to effectively forecast the fishing ground of chub mackerel in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea.展开更多
This study is aimed to assess the usefulness of weather forecasts for irrigation scheduling in crops to economize water use. The short-term gains for the farmers come from reducing costs of irrigation with the help of...This study is aimed to assess the usefulness of weather forecasts for irrigation scheduling in crops to economize water use. The short-term gains for the farmers come from reducing costs of irrigation with the help of advisory for when not to irrigate because rain is predicted (risk-free because the wrong forecast only delays irrigation within tolerance). Here, a quantitative assessment of saving (indirect income) if irrigation is avoided as rain is imminent (as per forecast), using a five-year archived forecast data over Karnataka state at hobli (a cluster of small villages) level is presented. Estimates showed that the economic benefits to the farmers from such advisories were significant. The potential gain in annual income from such forecast-based irrigation scheduling was of the order of 10% - 15%. Our analysis also indicated that the use of advisory by a small percentage of more than 10 million marginal farmers (landholding < 3 acres) in Karnataka could lead to huge cumulative savings of the order of many crores.展开更多
Based on the company's disclosure of key customer information,the impact of corporate customer concentration on analyst forecast was studied,and we further studied the impact of detailed customer names on analyst ...Based on the company's disclosure of key customer information,the impact of corporate customer concentration on analyst forecast was studied,and we further studied the impact of detailed customer names on analyst forecasts. It is found that:(i) customer concentration significantly affects the accuracy of analyst forecasts. The higher the customer concentration is,the lower the accuracy of analyst forecasts is;(ii) Voluntary disclosure of customer names can provide incremental information to analysts and mitigate the negative impact of customer concentration on the accuracy of analyst forests;(iii) further research has found that the incremental information brought by the state-owned enterprises' disclosure of the customer names to analysts is more obvious; disclosure of customer names by companies with high environmental uncertainty is more likely to be of concern to analysts; and star analysts have a higher ability to interpret customer names than non-star analysts.展开更多
Assessment of the current status of Lake Baikal proved to be based on changes in natural (“preindustrial”) chemical content in basic abiotic and biological compartments of the Lake geosystem. This approach was used ...Assessment of the current status of Lake Baikal proved to be based on changes in natural (“preindustrial”) chemical content in basic abiotic and biological compartments of the Lake geosystem. This approach was used to evaluate background “base-line levels” of 6 major and about 50 minor and trace ele-ments in the Lake Baikal water body using a number of most reliable data re-ported within 1992-2012. In terms of environment geochemistry Baikal is one of the purest water reservoirs on the Earth. A simple mass balance model was proposed for assessing possible anthropogenic impact on Baikal water geo-chemistry. Estimations of change trends showed that only for Na+, SO42-, Cl- and Mo growth rate of their average concentrations in the Lake occurred to be 1%, 3%, 7% and 2% in every 10 years. Space-time monitoring schedules for all water body compartments of the Lake are proposed as well as similar moni-toring programs for tributaries, precipitations, bottom sediments, aquatic biota.展开更多
基金funded by "The Program on Marine Environmental Safety Guarantee" of "The National Key Research and Development Program of China"[grant number2016YFC1401409]
文摘A project entitled‘Development of a Global High-resolution Marine Dynamic Environmental Forecasting System’has been funded by‘The Program on Marine Environmental Safety Guarantee’of The National Key Research and Development Program of China.This project will accomplish its objectives through basic theoretical research,model development and expansion,and system establishment and application,with a focus on four key issues separated into nine tasks.A series of research achievements have already been obtained,including datasets,observations,theories,and model results.
文摘The paper discusses the problems of engineering geology in environmental geoscience from several aspects. For natural sciences and social sciences, it deduces essential theory from logistic cycle model, logic mapping and Verhulst model. It had been discovered that these aspects are equal. However, these were the studies of normal effects. We must establish mathematical model to check from contrary course for gray forecasting and decision-making and answer several questions satisfactorily.
基金Supported by the National Science and Technology Support Plan(2014BAC22B06)Public Welfare Research Project of Science and Technology Department of Anhui Province in 2017(1704f0804056)
文摘With the atmospheric stereoscopic monitoring, air quality forecasting and decision of environment management as the main line, and comprehensive management system as the guidance, five platforms including infrastructure, technological support, monitoring and early monitoring, decision support and information services were established. These platforms have 15 subsystems, including stereoscopic monitoring network, visual business consultation, high-performance computing environment, comprehensive management of atmospheric data, emission inventories of pollu-tion sources, evaluation tools of atmospheric models, monitoring and management of air pollution, forecasting and early warning of air quality, diag-nostic analysis of atmospheric environment, tracking of air pollution sources, emergency management of air pollution, conformity management of air quality, comprehensive display of information, releasing of information to external networks, and releasing of information by mobile networks. The decision support system (DSS) of atmospheric environment management could realize an integration business system of 11 air quality forecast - heavy pollution weather warning - diagnosis of pollution causes (dynamic analysis of pollution sources) -air quality conformity planning (air pollu-tion emergency management) -evaluation of forecasting and warning results (evaluation pf management measures) -air quality forecasting" and provide the technical support for the prevention and control of atmosphere pollution in Anhui province.
基金The National High Technology Research and Development Program(863 Program)of China under contract No.2012AA092301the Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean under contract No.20155014+1 种基金the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of China under contract No.2013BAD13B01the Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commissionof China under contract No.14ZZ147
文摘The pelagic species is closely related to the marine environmental factors, and establishment of forecasting model of fishing ground with high accuracy is an important content for pelagic fishery. The chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus) in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea is an important fishing target for Chinese lighting purse seine fishery. Based on the fishery data from China's mainland large-type lighting purse seine fishery for chub mackerel during the period of 2003 to 2010 and the environmental data including sea surface temperature(SST), gradient of the sea surface temperature(GSST), sea surface height(SSH) and geostrophic velocity(GV), we attempt to establish one new forecasting model of fishing ground based on boosted regression trees. In this study, the fishing areas with fishing effort is considered as one fishing ground, and the areas with no fishing ground are randomly selected from a background field, in which the fishing areas have no records in the logbooks. The performance of the forecasting model of fishing ground is evaluated with the testing data from the actual fishing data in 2011. The results show that the forecasting model of fishing ground has a high prediction performance, and the area under receiver operating curve(AUC) attains 0.897. The predicted fishing grounds are coincided with the actual fishing locations in 2011, and the movement route is also the same as the shift of fishing vessels, which indicates that this forecasting model based on the boosted regression trees can be used to effectively forecast the fishing ground of chub mackerel in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea.
文摘This study is aimed to assess the usefulness of weather forecasts for irrigation scheduling in crops to economize water use. The short-term gains for the farmers come from reducing costs of irrigation with the help of advisory for when not to irrigate because rain is predicted (risk-free because the wrong forecast only delays irrigation within tolerance). Here, a quantitative assessment of saving (indirect income) if irrigation is avoided as rain is imminent (as per forecast), using a five-year archived forecast data over Karnataka state at hobli (a cluster of small villages) level is presented. Estimates showed that the economic benefits to the farmers from such advisories were significant. The potential gain in annual income from such forecast-based irrigation scheduling was of the order of 10% - 15%. Our analysis also indicated that the use of advisory by a small percentage of more than 10 million marginal farmers (landholding < 3 acres) in Karnataka could lead to huge cumulative savings of the order of many crores.
文摘Based on the company's disclosure of key customer information,the impact of corporate customer concentration on analyst forecast was studied,and we further studied the impact of detailed customer names on analyst forecasts. It is found that:(i) customer concentration significantly affects the accuracy of analyst forecasts. The higher the customer concentration is,the lower the accuracy of analyst forecasts is;(ii) Voluntary disclosure of customer names can provide incremental information to analysts and mitigate the negative impact of customer concentration on the accuracy of analyst forests;(iii) further research has found that the incremental information brought by the state-owned enterprises' disclosure of the customer names to analysts is more obvious; disclosure of customer names by companies with high environmental uncertainty is more likely to be of concern to analysts; and star analysts have a higher ability to interpret customer names than non-star analysts.
文摘Assessment of the current status of Lake Baikal proved to be based on changes in natural (“preindustrial”) chemical content in basic abiotic and biological compartments of the Lake geosystem. This approach was used to evaluate background “base-line levels” of 6 major and about 50 minor and trace ele-ments in the Lake Baikal water body using a number of most reliable data re-ported within 1992-2012. In terms of environment geochemistry Baikal is one of the purest water reservoirs on the Earth. A simple mass balance model was proposed for assessing possible anthropogenic impact on Baikal water geo-chemistry. Estimations of change trends showed that only for Na+, SO42-, Cl- and Mo growth rate of their average concentrations in the Lake occurred to be 1%, 3%, 7% and 2% in every 10 years. Space-time monitoring schedules for all water body compartments of the Lake are proposed as well as similar moni-toring programs for tributaries, precipitations, bottom sediments, aquatic biota.