“China Shock”or China Dividend?-China GVC Participation’s Effects on Trading Partners’Technological Progress

This paper explores the effects of China’s global value chain(GVC)participation on technological progress in trading-partner countries based on estimated data on value-added trade between China and 52 trading partners.We find that,first,although China’s exports lowered the total factor productivity(TFP)of its trading partners(competitive effect),its imports greatly increased trading partners’TFP(effect of scale).This implies that China’s GVC participation is beneficial to its trading partners’technological progress in the form of a considerable technology dividend effect.Second,China’s export dividend effect compensates for the negative effect of Chinese competition on trading partners’technological progress;the innovation effects attributable to China’s imports reinforce the positive effects of scale on technological progress.When innovation is factored in,the China dividend thus becomes further reinforced.Third,China’s merchandise imports have a diminishing positive effect on technological progress in trading partners as geographical distance increases,but trade in services transcends geographical boundaries,and the positive technological progress effect of China’s service imports do not diminish as distance increases.We find that the“China dividend”from China’s GVC participation is a significant contributor to technological progress in partner nations,and China’s imports are conducive to innovation and technological progress in developed countries in the long run.

The Study of Mutual Benefits and Potential in China-Mongolia Agricultural Trade

This article aims to explore the mutual benefits and potential of agricultural trade between China and Mongolia,analyzing the current situation of agricultural resources,trade history,and policy environment of the two countries.The study finds that China-Mongolia agricultural trade shows significant economic complementarity.Trade activities not only promote economic growth in both countries but also deepen social and cultural exchanges.However,technical standards,political risks,and logistics costs remain major challenges facing trade cooperation.By strengthening policy coordination,investing in agricultural technology and infrastructure,and expanding the variety and markets of trade,the potential for cooperation in China-Mongolia agricultural trade can be further enhanced.These measures will help improve the efficiency and benefits of bilateral trade,achieving a win-win development.

Is China’s Foreign Investment Policy to Blame for US-China “Forced Technology Transfer” and Trade Conf lict?——Comment on Trump Administration’s Section 301 Investigation of China

The paper presents a new analytical framework to discuss the effect of Chinese foreign investment policy on the international technology transfer absorbed by enterprises of different ownership.The US Trade Representative claims that the Chinese government’s requirements regarding joint ventures pressure US companies to transfer intellectual property to Chinese companies.However,we argue that:(1)Based on analysis of the technical fees of technology import contracts and the number of US patents transferred to enterprises registered in the Chinese mainland,China’s foreign investment policy does not pressure US companies to transfer unremunerated technology to Chinese companies.(2)The invention and utility model patents filed by Chinese joint-venture enterprises or Chinese partner companies do not show an abnormally rapid growth,which means China’s FDI policy does not force US companies to transfer intellectual property in exchange for China’s market.(3)After 2012,the US-China technology transfer absorbed by enterprises of different ownership showed a significantly positive effect in reducing China-US trade surplus.

How Trade Liberalization of Intermediates Contributes to China's Technology Upgrade

Under a heterogeneous firm analysis framework,this paper creates a theoretical model to investigate how trade liberalization of intermediates influences the technology choice of firms based on the data of Chinese manufacturers during 2000-2006.According to our empirical result,after China's WTO entry,trade liberalization of intermediates significantly induced Chinese exporters to apply advanced technologies.In our further consideration of the differentiated productivity of firms,we found that such an effect is related to the initial productivity of firms and only significantly induces mediumproductivity firms to upgrade their technologies.In addition,the technology-promotion effect of trade liberalization of intermediates is the most significant for technology-intensive exporters and the least significant for labor-intensive exporters.

CNTIC Group Developing Technology Trade

Formally founded at the end of 1994,the CNTIC (China NationalTechnical Import ＆ Export Corporation)Group specializes in exporting high-tech,complete plant equipment and mechanicaland electrical products. The group is anexport-oriented enterprise groupcharacterized by technology trade, itsoperating content represents thedevelopmental direction of the exportindustry in China and its founding was ofgreat significance in expanding the exportof technology-intensive products andpromoting domestic scientific andtechnological progress.

Technology Trade in Beijing

In the past few years, Beijing has seen booming progress in the import and export of technology. An official with the Beijing Commission of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation said that Beijing last year signed 268 contracts introducing technology worth US$272 million. They involved projects including 342,000 telephones for the Beijing Telecommunications Bureau financed with a Canadian government loan,

Technological Content of the Import of Services and the Transformation of Growth Patterns of China's Industrial Economy

Based on the latest approach for measuring technology content of import of services and with the contribution of total factor productivity(TFP) to gross industrial output as the indicator for measuring the growth pattern of China's industrial economy,this paper provides an empirical study on the effect of import technology content of trade in services on the development pattern of China's industrial economy between 2004 and2011.Result of econometric test reveals that the technology content of import of services has a significant positive effect on transforming the growth pattern of China's industrial economy.Moreover,import of new types of trade in services with high technology such as computer and information services has a much stronger positive effect compared with import of traditional trade in services with relatively low technology content such as transport.In terms of different industrial sectors,technology content of import of services has the greatest effect on transforming the development pattern of China's technologyintensive industrial sectors,followed by capital-intensive,resource-intensive and laborintensive sectors respectively.Transformation of the development pattern of China's industrial economy cannot be isolated from the system of global division of work.Against the backdrop of global service sector fragmentation,China should take the important opportunities in the development of global trade in services and give more attention to improving the quality of import of services in the interest of transforming the development pattern of its industrial economy.

财政分权对城市贸易经济韧性的影响及空间溢出效应研究

在中国经济迈入高质量发展的新阶段,面对复杂多变的外部环境,增强城市贸易经济韧性显得尤为重要。基于2006—2019年中国283个地级及以上城市面板数据,采用面板回归模型、中介效应检验方法及空间杜宾模型,探究财政分权对城市贸易经济韧性的影响及其内在机制。研究发现:财政分权能够显著增强城市贸易经济韧性,科技创新在其中起到了部分中介作用,上述结论经过稳健性检验后依然成立。空间杜宾效应分析表明,财政分权可通过空间溢出效应作用于邻近城市贸易经济韧性。进一步的异质性分析发现,财政分权对城市贸易经济韧性的促进作用存在区位和贸易经济韧性水平差异,在中西部地区及贸易经济韧性水平较低的城市中其作用效果越强。

5G技术试点建设助力数字贸易国际竞争力提升

5G技术试点建设成为提升数字贸易国际竞争力的重要途径。本文选取2005-2021年CEIC全球经济数据库中的292个地级市作为研究对象,利用多时点DID模型评估5G技术试点建设对数字贸易国际竞争力的影响及作用机制。发现5G技术试点建设能显著提升我国数字贸易国际竞争力;技术创新是5G技术试点建设与数字贸易国际竞争力的中介变量;产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化在5G技术试点建设对数字贸易国际竞争力的影响中存在中介效应;5G技术试点建设政策对我国数字贸易国际竞争力的促进作用在开通中欧班列的城市相对更大;5G技术试点建设对数字贸易国际竞争力的间接效应大于直接效应。因此,应制定财税政策,鼓励企业通过数字化转型实现产业升级,不断提升中欧班列开通对我国数字贸易国际竞争力的促进作用。

国家自主创新示范区设立与服务贸易高质量发展

自主创新是实现企业高质量发展、提升国际竞争力的必由之路。基于1997—2021年中国省级数据,使用合成控制法和双重差分法实证分析了国家自主创新示范区设立对服务贸易高质量发展的影响及其机制。研究发现,国家自主创新示范区设立能显著促进服务贸易高质量发展,且通过技术创新和产业结构升级促进了服务贸易高质量发展。异质性分析发现,相较于中西部地区,国家自主创新示范区设立对服务贸易高质量发展的促进作用在东部地区更大。因此,中国应继续鼓励国家自主创新示范区扩围发展,加快科技成果转化,中西部地区要大力发展科技服务业,以促进服务贸易高质量发展。

数字经济发展与出口韧性:来自我国地级市层面的经验证据

随着全球经济不确定性加剧和地缘政治经济形势日渐复杂,我国出口贸易韧性面临较大外部冲击,而数字经济快速发展通过有效赋能贸易转型升级深刻影响城市出口韧性。基于此背景,系统梳理数字经济影响出口韧性的理论机制,利用我国地级市面板数据和双重差分模型,实证检验数字经济发展对我国城市出口韧性的影响效应及作用机制。研究表明:数字经济发展对出口韧性抵抗性和恢复性均具有显著的正向影响,多种稳健性检验均支持上述结论。该影响效应在低数字经济发展水平城市和低对外贸易依存度城市表现得更为突出;数字经济发展对出口韧性抵抗性的影响在中西部和北部城市更为突出,对出口韧性恢复性的影响在东部和北部城市更为明显。此外,数字经济通过影响技术创新和贸易开放提升出口韧性,产业因素中制造业集聚对此具有负向调节作用,产业多样化对此具有正向调节作用。进一步研究发现,互联网发展规模对数字经济影响出口韧性抵抗性具有非线性作用,表现为双门槛效应。以上结论为提升我国城市出口韧性、加快实现贸易高质量发展提供理论支撑,提出加大对数字经济与相关产业的支持力度,促进数字技术与传统行业深度融合,推动国内各地域均衡发展,倡导经济多样化发展等建议。

中国制造业数字化对贸易竞争力的影响研究

利用WIOTs结合中国制造业行业2003-2014年的面板数据,研究了制造业数字化对贸易竞争力的影响。研究结果表明:制造业数字化可以促进贸易竞争力的提升,制造业数字化水平每提升1%,就会拉动贸易竞争力提升0.478%。异质性分析结果表明:制造业数字化显著提升了技术密集型行业的贸易竞争力但抑制了劳动密集型行业的贸易竞争力;国内数字化投入对贸易竞争力具有显著的提升效应,但国外数字化投入对其并无显著影响。机制检验的结果表明:制造业数字化可以通过技术创新以及人力资本结构升级的中介效应来提升其贸易竞争力。最后根据研究结论,提出了我国要提升制造业行业数字化水平、加大国内数字化投入、推动技术创新以及加强高素质劳动力培养等政策建议。

2023年美国对华经贸竞争态势及2024年展望

2023年中美关系“低开高走”,然而美国对华经贸竞争仍然以美国持续强化对华打压为“主线”,呈现出科技领域竞争加剧、竞争工具系统多样、围堵封锁愈发凸显、操弄意识形态实施霸凌等特征。展望2024,中美关系仍面临一定不确定性,但大概率还是持续升级对华打压,竞争进一步加剧,而经贸领域仍将是未来两国博弈的重点领域。我国应继续坚持统筹高质量发展和高水平安全,保持战略定力,实现科技自强,提升反制能力,扩大对外开放,强化合规建设,积极应对。

合作研发与技术交易谁更有利于技术融合:以人工智能多层专利网络为例

技术融合能够显著提高企业创新能力,是产业融合的基础。合作研发和技术交易是常见的技术创新模式。为探究不同创新模式下的技术融合影响因素,以人工智能产业为例构建组织-技术多层网络模型,从技术异质性和创新能力异质性两个维度探究不同创新模式下组织合作伙伴异质性对技术融合的影响。研究表明,在合作研发模式下,技术异质性、创新能力异质性有利于技术融合;在技术交易模式下,创新能力异质性有利于技术融合,技术异质性不利于技术融合。

碳交易下驱动企业碳减排的碳配额机制

碳配额是碳交易的基础,有效的碳配额不是为了抑制生产,而是驱动企业实施低碳技术。针对碳配额有效性设定问题,设计优化了驱动企业降低单位产品的碳排放水平的碳配额机制,得到了碳配额机制有效区间,重点分析了影响碳配额有效性的关键因素。碳配额有效性表明,单位产品初始碳排放量和减排成本系数均是影响碳配额机制有效性的关键因素,合理降低碳交易价格、提高非减排成本和价格敏感性能增大产量碳配额机制的有效性。当减排技术得到改进与提升后,减排成本系数减小,政府单位产品免费碳配额量紧缩,但制造商和零售商利润都降低,此时政府应积极引导消费者购买低碳产品,提高市场需求量。

美国大数据行业技术贸易分析及对中国的启示

大数据行业对国家战略至关重要,已成为全球范围内最具活力和潜力的领域之一。本文通过分析美国大数据技术贸易趋势、规模及影响因素,旨在探讨中国大数据发展现状,并提出相应策略。了解美国技术贸易情况有助于中国在竞争中保持优势。通过深入研究中国现状,提出对策,促进中国可持续发展和全球竞争力提升。

考虑含HRD的光热电站和综合需求响应的综合能源系统低碳经济调度

在“双碳”的背景下,为进一步提升综合能源系统(Integrated Energy System, IES)的经济性和环境效益,文中提出一种在奖惩阶梯型碳交易机制下考虑含热回收装置(Heat Recycling Device, HRD)的光热电站和综合需求响应的IES系统低碳经济调度方法。首先,在源侧构建含热回收装置的光热电站与加装碳捕集的热电联产机组联合运行的IES架构,并分析电转气两阶段的运行原理,建立计及余热回收的电转气设备模型。其次,考虑到负荷侧电、热、气三种负荷的柔性特性,在负荷侧建立电热气综合需求响应模型。最后,引入奖惩阶梯型碳交易机制,进一步减小系统碳排放量,构建调度周期内以含购能成本、运维成本、碳交易成本等系统总运行成本最小为目标的综合能源系统低碳优化调度模型。通过算例分析结果表明,所提方法不仅能提高机组的运行潜力,而且有效降低了系统总运行成本与碳排放量。

贸易自由化对异质性企业技术创新的影响研究

基于新异质性贸易理论,分析贸易自由化与异质性特征对企业资源配置和创新效应的影响。结果表明:贸易自由化可通过技术溢出效应、市场效应影响企业技术创新,提升我国工业企业的创新能力。同时考虑企业内外部异质性,发现贸易自由化与不同属性的企业的技术创新能力有密切关系,东部地区大型国有企业存在显著技术溢出创新提升。鉴于此,应充分结合贸易自由化对异质性企业的影响效应,提高企业的生产率和降低进入壁垒,优化市场结构。