Construction of a Computational Scheme for the Fuzzy HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model with a Nonlinear Saturated Incidence Rate

This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemicmodel discusses the more detailed versions of the interactions between infective and susceptible people.Thenext-generation matrix approach is employed to find the reproduction number of a deterministic model.Thesensitivity analysis and local stability analysis of the systemare also provided.For solving the fuzzy epidemic model,a numerical scheme is constructed which consists of three time levels.The numerical scheme has an advantage overthe existing forward Euler scheme for determining the conditions of getting the positive solution.The establishedscheme also has an advantage over existing non-standard finite difference methods in terms of order of accuracy.The stability of the scheme for the considered fuzzy model is also provided.From the plotted results,it can beobserved that susceptible people decay by rising interaction parameters.

Individual dynamics and local heterogeneity provide a microscopic view of the epidemic spreading

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe global disasters,highlighting the importance of understanding the details and trends of epidemic transmission in order to introduce efficient intervention measures.While the widely used deterministic compartmental models have qualitatively presented continuous “analytical” insight and captured some transmission features,their treatment usually lacks spatiotemporal variation.Here,we propose a stochastic individual dynamical(SID)model to mimic the random and heterogeneous nature of epidemic propagation.The SID model provides a unifying framework for representing the spatiotemporal variations of epidemic development by tracking the movements of each individual.Using this model,we reproduce the infection curves for COVID-19 cases in different areas globally and find the local dynamics and heterogeneity at the individual level that affect the disease outbreak.The macroscopic trend of virus spreading is clearly illustrated from the microscopic perspective,enabling a quantitative assessment of different interventions.Seemingly,this model is also applicable to studying stochastic processes at the “meter scale”,e.g.,human society’s collective dynamics.

Impact of different interaction behavior on epidemic spreading in time-dependent social networks

We investigate the impact of pairwise and group interactions on the spread of epidemics through an activity-driven model based on time-dependent networks.The effects of pairwise/group interaction proportion and pairwise/group interaction intensity are explored by extensive simulation and theoretical analysis.It is demonstrated that altering the group interaction proportion can either hinder or enhance the spread of epidemics,depending on the relative social intensity of group and pairwise interactions.As the group interaction proportion decreases,the impact of reducing group social intensity diminishes.The ratio of group and pairwise social intensity can affect the effect of group interaction proportion on the scale of infection.A weak heterogeneous activity distribution can raise the epidemic threshold,and reduce the scale of infection.These results benefit the design of epidemic control strategy.

Projecting the Dynamic Trends of Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome:Modeling the Epidemic in Sichuan Province, China

Objective Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the current status and dynamic trends of the human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)prevalence in Sichuan,the second most heavily affected province in China,and to explore future interventions.Methods The epidemiological,behavioral,and population census data from multiple sources were analyzed to extract inputs for an acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(AIDS)epidemic model(AEM).Baseline curves,derived from historical trends in HIV prevalence,were used,and the AEM was employed to examine future intervention scenarios.Results In 2015,the modeled data suggested an adult HIV prevalence of 0.191%in Sichuan,with an estimated 128,766 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,983 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.Considering current high-risk behaviors,the model predicts an increase in the adult prevalence to 0.306%by 2025,projecting an estimated 212,168 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,555 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.Conclusion Heterosexual transmission will likely emerge as the primary mode of AIDS transmission in Sichuan.Furthermore,we anticipate a stabilization in the incidence of AIDS with a concurrent increase in prevalence.Implementing comprehensive intervention measures aimed at high-risk groups could effectively alleviate the spread of AIDS in Sichuan.

Epidemic threshold influenced by non-pharmaceutical interventions in residential university environments

The control of highly contagious disease spreading in campuses is a critical challenge.In residential universities,students attend classes according to a curriculum schedule,and mainly pack into classrooms,dining halls and dorms.They move from one place to another.To simulate such environments,we propose an agent-based susceptible–infected–recovered model with time-varying heterogeneous contact networks.In close environments,maintaining physical distancing is the most widely recommended and encouraged non-pharmaceutical intervention.It can be easily realized by using larger classrooms,adopting staggered dining hours,decreasing the number of students per dorm and so on.Their real-world influence remains uncertain.With numerical simulations,we obtain epidemic thresholds.The effect of such countermeasures on reducing the number of disease cases is also quantitatively evaluated.

Epidemic Characteristics and Spatio-Temporal Patterns of HFRS in Qingdao City,China,2010-2022

Objective This study investigated the epidemic characteristics and spatio-temporal dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Qingdao City,China.Methods Information was collected on HFRS cases in Qingdao City from 2010 to 2022.Descriptive epidemiologic,seasonal decomposition,spatial autocorrelation,and spatio-temporal cluster analyses were performed.Results A total of 2,220 patients with HFRS were reported over the study period,with an average annual incidence of 1.89/100,000 and a case fatality rate of 2.52%.The male:female ratio was 2.8:1.75.3%of patients were aged between 16 and 60 years old,75.3%of patients were farmers,and 11.6%had both“three red”and“three pain”symptoms.The HFRS epidemic showed two-peak seasonality:the primary fall-winter peak and the minor spring peak.The HFRS epidemic presented highly spatially heterogeneous,street/township-level hot spots that were mostly distributed in Huangdao,Pingdu,and Jiaozhou.The spatio-temporal cluster analysis revealed three cluster areas in Qingdao City that were located in the south of Huangdao District during the fall-winter peak.Conclusion The distribution of HFRS in Qingdao exhibited periodic,seasonal,and regional characteristics,with high spatial clustering heterogeneity.The typical symptoms of“three red”and“three pain”in patients with HFRS were not obvious.

Vaccination and Measles Epidemic in the Republic of Congo

Measles is a highly infectious, vaccine-preventable viral disease. Often forgotten, it is potentially fatal. Its main symptoms are: fever, cough, conjunctivitis, rhinitis and skin rash. Serological diagnoses by ELISA test based on the detection of anti-measles virus immunoglobulins M and G (IgM and IgG), are used respectively for the confirmation of suspected cases notified by means of clinical signs of the disease in health structures of the twelve departments of the Republic of Congo involved in the epidemiological surveillance of the disease, and for the evaluation of the immunity conferred by vaccination. During 2021, 459 suspected cases of measles were reported and sampled throughout the country, despite the administration under the Expanded Routine Immunization Program (EPI), of 2 doses of the combined measles-rubella vaccine (RR1 and RR2) in 2020. The notification rate was higher in the south of the country, more precisely in the health structures of the departments of Pointe-Noire (42%) and Brazzaville (11%). During the year 2021, 459 suspected cases of measles were notified and sampled throughout the country with a high notification rate in the south of the country, more precisely in the health structures of the Pointe-Noire departments (42%) and Brazzaville (11%). The samples consisting of human blood (serum) were sent to the National Public Health Laboratory and analyzed by various ELISA tests for the detection of anti-measles immunog-lobulins M and G. The analysis of the results obtained shows that the measles virus circulated in all departments of the country. 154 cases (33.55%) were confirmed positive by IgM ELISA and 98 positive cases (63.63%) were patients vaccinated against measles. Vaccination coverage in RR1 of [50%-95% [(first dose) as well as the lowest RR2 < 50% (second dose) undoubtedly because the COVID-19 pandemic could be the cause of the high frequency of cases positive vaccinated. The non-detection of IgG immunoglobulins in vaccinated patients observed by IgG ELISA tests revealed that 63.26% of vaccinated patients were not immunized against the measles virus. These results confirm those obtained during the Elisa IgM analysis and make it possible to deduce that the quality, the number of doses not properly administered, the individual characteristics of the people as well as the poor conservation of the administered vaccine (non-compliance with the cold chain) would explain the high proportion of positive cases of vaccinated measles observed.

Relationship Between Individuals’Epidemic Risk Perception Within Living Space and Subjective Well-Being:Empirical Evidence from China after the First Wave of COVID-19

It is common to observe the epidemic risk perception(ERP)and a decline in subjective well-being(SWB)in the context of public health events,such as Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19).However,there have been few studies exploring the impact of individuals’ERP within living space on their SWB,especially from a geographical and daily activity perspective after the resumption of work and other activities following a wave of the pandemic.In this paper,we conducted a study with 789 participants in urban China,measuring their ERP within living space and examining its influence on their SWB using path analysis.The results indicated that individuals’ERP within their living space had a significant negative effect on their SWB.The density of certain types of facilities within their living space,such as bus stops,subway stations,restaurants,fast food shops,convenience shops,hospitals,and public toilets,had a significantly negative impact on their SWB,mediated by their ERP within living space.Additionally,participation in out-of-home work and other activities not only increased individuals’ERP within living space,but also strengthened its negative effect on their SWB.

Research on the Control Cover against Solenopsis invicta and Rapid Extinguishment of Its Epidemic

Based on the biological characteristics of Solenopsis invicta and the structural characteristics of its ant nest,a fast and efficient closed treatment device was developed.Compared with the simple chemical treatment commonly used at present,the developed treatment device(the ant nest control cover)is a fast and efficient method to exterminate S.invicta in 7 d,featured by short course,quick results and good effect.

Stochastic Bifurcation of an SIS Epidemic Model with Treatment and Immigration

In this paper, we investigate an SIS model with treatment and immigration. Firstly, the two-dimensional model is simplified by using the stochastic averaging method. Then, we derive the local stability of the stochastic system by computing the Lyapunov exponent of the linearized system. Further, the global stability of the stochastic model is analyzed based on the singular boundary theory. Moreover, we prove that the model undergoes a Hopf bifurcation and a pitchfork bifurcation. Finally, several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results. .

Traveling Wave Solutions of a SIR Epidemic Model with Spatio-Temporal Delay

In this paper, we studied the traveling wave solutions of a SIR epidemic model with spatial-temporal delay. We proved that this result is determined by the basic reproduction number R0and the minimum wave speed c*of the corresponding ordinary differential equations. The methods used in this paper are primarily the Schauder fixed point theorem and comparison principle. We have proved that when R0>1and c>c*, the model has a non-negative and non-trivial traveling wave solution. However, for R01and c≥0or R0>1and 0cc*, the model does not have a traveling wave solution.

Stability of a Delayed Stochastic Epidemic COVID-19 Model with Vaccination and with Differential Susceptibility

In this paper, we treat the spread of COVID-19 using a delayed stochastic SVIRS (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Susceptible) epidemic model with a general incidence rate and differential susceptibility. We start with a deterministic model, then add random perturbations on the contact rate using white noise to obtain a stochastic model. We first show that the delayed stochastic differential equation that describes the model has a unique global positive solution for any positive initial value. Under the condition R0 ≤ 1, we prove the almost sure asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the model.

Historical review and reflections on the participation of acupuncture and moxibustion in the treatment of epidemics in the People’s Republic of China (from 1950 until now)

Since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China, both the Communist Party and the government have placed great emphasis on the advancement of traditional Chinese medicine. Acupuncture and moxibustion have been actively involved in combating major epidemics such as malaria, schistosomiasis, and COVID-19. This article conducts a historical review of these three significant cases to elucidate how the acupuncture community has effectively utilized its unique advantages and characteristics through theoretical discussions, clinical practices, experimental research, as well as receiving administrative leadership and political support from the Communist Party of China and government. We provide an objective evaluation of their effectiveness while summarizing historical experiences to serve as a reference for future utilization of acupuncture and moxibustion therapy in epidemic relief efforts. Additionally, propose four suggestions: strengthening Party leadership and enhancing political support;timely summarization of experiences to establish programs and systems;deepening scientific research by integrating experimental findings with clinical practice;focusing on public awareness campaigns and education to solidify grassroots foundations.

具有自适应能力的Epidemic路由算法

Epidemic算法在某些场景中具有很高的传输成功率、很小的传输延迟,但其适应性较差,在另一些场景中性能会显著下降。分析了影响Epidemic算法性能的因素,认为挤出效应是导致算法性能下降的主要原因;提出了A-daptive机制,其使节点可以根据周围节点缓存的状况调整注入网络数据包的数量,主动地抑制挤出效应的发生,进而改善Epidemic算法性能。仿真结果表明,改进后算法的传输成功率显著提高,路由开销大幅度下降。

延迟容忍网络中基于Epidemic算法的组播路由研究

延迟容忍网络(DTN)是近年来出现的一种新型的网络体系结构,它最大的特点就是网络的间断连通性,这也使得其路由算法的设计成为DTN网络的关键所在。介绍了DTN路由设计时应该考虑的问题,研究了DTN的直接传送组播路由和Epidemic路由机制,并将两种路由算法结合起来,在OPNET仿真平台上对其信息传送率和传送延迟等性能进行了仿真分析。结果表明,基于Epidemic路由的组内直接传送的组播方式在性能上是由于直接传送组播方式的。

具有退避机制的Epidemic路由算法

Epidemic算法在某些场景中具有很高的传输成功率、很小的传输延迟,但算法的适应性较差,在另一些场景中算法性能会显著下降。理论和实验分析表明,挤出效应是导致Epidemic算法性能下降的主要原因。分析了具有免疫机制Epidemic算法的性能,指出了该机制的缺陷,提出了退避机制:当某一节点缓冲区饱和时,不再接收与之相遇节点的数据包。在ONE仿真平台上实现了具有退避机制的Ep-idemic算法,实验结果表明,在挤出效应显著的场景下,退避机制能有效地抑制挤出效应,改进后算法的传输成功率有大幅度的提高,路由开销也有一定程度的下降。

容迟网络中低资源消耗Advanced Epidemic路由算法

容迟网络(DTN)架构涵盖无线传感网络、AdHoc网络等,但其中高效节能的路由算法是一个亟须解决的问题。与传统网络相比,DTN路由的主要目的是最大化消息送达的可能性。Epidemic算法简单但网络资源消耗较高。针对消息自身因素、连接机会、连接稳定性等方面进行改进,并在对仿真平台ONE的分析基础之上,对算法进行性能分析,总结出算法的优缺点。

泛洪攻击对Epidemic机制下机会网络生命期的影响

机会网络应用中存在能量无法补充的场景,泛洪是机会网络中容易发生的攻击行为。从理论上分析了在Epidemic路由机制下,泛洪攻击导致的节点能量消耗以及对网络生命期的影响。分析表明恶意节点数量的增加会对网络生命期产生显著影响,而恶意节点注入的数据分组的数量仅能在特定的场景下产生影响,且影响轻微。使用ONE仿真平台对泛洪攻击进行了仿真实验,仿真结果与理论分析的结论一致。

Study on the Effective Prevention and Control of Maize Rough Dwarf Disease in Different Areas with Varying Epidemic Intensity in Shandong Province

[ Objective] This study aimed to investigate the effective prevention and control of maize rough dwarf disease in different areas with varying epidemic inten-sity in Shandong Province. [Method] Control effects of single application of virus in-hibitors and composite application of virus inhibitors with seed dressing agents and pesticides on maize rough dwarf disease in different areas with varying epidemic intensity were investigated. [Result] The same treatment possessed entirely different effects in severely affected areas and slightly affected areas. To be specific, single application of virus inhibitors in slightly affected areas exhibited good control effects, with a control efficiency of 76.59% and yield increment rate of 158.21%; in severely affected areas, single application of virus inhibitors led to low control efficiency and yield increment rate. The highest control efficiency of composite application of virus inhibitors with seed dressing agents and pesticides in severely affected areas was 71.38%, and experimental plots changed from total crop failure to have certain eco-nomic output. [Conclusion] ln different areas with varying epidemic intensity of maize rough dwarf disease, different application modes should be adopted according to lo-cal conditions, thereby saving cost and improving control efficiency.

Construction of Risk Assessment Application Model of Epidemic Disease in Large-scale Pig Farms

The application model of epidemic disease assessment technology for Web-based large-scale pig farm was expounded from the identification of epidemic disease risk factors, construction of risk assessment model and development of risk assessment system. The assessed pig farm uploaded the epidemic disease risk data information through on-line answering evaluating questionnaire to get the immediate evaluation report. The model could enhance the risk communication between pig farm veterinarian, manager and veterinary experts to help farm system understand and find disease risk factors, assess and report the potential high risk items of the pig farm in the three systems of engineering epidemic disease prevention technology, biological safety and immune monitoring, and promote the improvement and perfection of epidemic disease prevention and control measures.