Impact of different interaction behavior on epidemic spreading in time-dependent social networks

We investigate the impact of pairwise and group interactions on the spread of epidemics through an activity-driven model based on time-dependent networks.The effects of pairwise/group interaction proportion and pairwise/group interaction intensity are explored by extensive simulation and theoretical analysis.It is demonstrated that altering the group interaction proportion can either hinder or enhance the spread of epidemics,depending on the relative social intensity of group and pairwise interactions.As the group interaction proportion decreases,the impact of reducing group social intensity diminishes.The ratio of group and pairwise social intensity can affect the effect of group interaction proportion on the scale of infection.A weak heterogeneous activity distribution can raise the epidemic threshold,and reduce the scale of infection.These results benefit the design of epidemic control strategy.

Epidemic Characteristics and Spatio-Temporal Patterns of HFRS in Qingdao City,China,2010-2022

Objective This study investigated the epidemic characteristics and spatio-temporal dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Qingdao City,China.Methods Information was collected on HFRS cases in Qingdao City from 2010 to 2022.Descriptive epidemiologic,seasonal decomposition,spatial autocorrelation,and spatio-temporal cluster analyses were performed.Results A total of 2,220 patients with HFRS were reported over the study period,with an average annual incidence of 1.89/100,000 and a case fatality rate of 2.52%.The male:female ratio was 2.8:1.75.3%of patients were aged between 16 and 60 years old,75.3%of patients were farmers,and 11.6%had both“three red”and“three pain”symptoms.The HFRS epidemic showed two-peak seasonality:the primary fall-winter peak and the minor spring peak.The HFRS epidemic presented highly spatially heterogeneous,street/township-level hot spots that were mostly distributed in Huangdao,Pingdu,and Jiaozhou.The spatio-temporal cluster analysis revealed three cluster areas in Qingdao City that were located in the south of Huangdao District during the fall-winter peak.Conclusion The distribution of HFRS in Qingdao exhibited periodic,seasonal,and regional characteristics,with high spatial clustering heterogeneity.The typical symptoms of“three red”and“three pain”in patients with HFRS were not obvious.

Relationship Between Individuals’Epidemic Risk Perception Within Living Space and Subjective Well-Being:Empirical Evidence from China after the First Wave of COVID-19

It is common to observe the epidemic risk perception(ERP)and a decline in subjective well-being(SWB)in the context of public health events,such as Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19).However,there have been few studies exploring the impact of individuals’ERP within living space on their SWB,especially from a geographical and daily activity perspective after the resumption of work and other activities following a wave of the pandemic.In this paper,we conducted a study with 789 participants in urban China,measuring their ERP within living space and examining its influence on their SWB using path analysis.The results indicated that individuals’ERP within their living space had a significant negative effect on their SWB.The density of certain types of facilities within their living space,such as bus stops,subway stations,restaurants,fast food shops,convenience shops,hospitals,and public toilets,had a significantly negative impact on their SWB,mediated by their ERP within living space.Additionally,participation in out-of-home work and other activities not only increased individuals’ERP within living space,but also strengthened its negative effect on their SWB.

Traveling Wave Solutions of a SIR Epidemic Model with Spatio-Temporal Delay

In this paper, we studied the traveling wave solutions of a SIR epidemic model with spatial-temporal delay. We proved that this result is determined by the basic reproduction number R0and the minimum wave speed c*of the corresponding ordinary differential equations. The methods used in this paper are primarily the Schauder fixed point theorem and comparison principle. We have proved that when R0>1and c>c*, the model has a non-negative and non-trivial traveling wave solution. However, for R01and c≥0or R0>1and 0cc*, the model does not have a traveling wave solution.

Historical review and reflections on the participation of acupuncture and moxibustion in the treatment of epidemics in the People’s Republic of China (from 1950 until now)

Since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China, both the Communist Party and the government have placed great emphasis on the advancement of traditional Chinese medicine. Acupuncture and moxibustion have been actively involved in combating major epidemics such as malaria, schistosomiasis, and COVID-19. This article conducts a historical review of these three significant cases to elucidate how the acupuncture community has effectively utilized its unique advantages and characteristics through theoretical discussions, clinical practices, experimental research, as well as receiving administrative leadership and political support from the Communist Party of China and government. We provide an objective evaluation of their effectiveness while summarizing historical experiences to serve as a reference for future utilization of acupuncture and moxibustion therapy in epidemic relief efforts. Additionally, propose four suggestions: strengthening Party leadership and enhancing political support;timely summarization of experiences to establish programs and systems;deepening scientific research by integrating experimental findings with clinical practice;focusing on public awareness campaigns and education to solidify grassroots foundations.

Construction of a Computational Scheme for the Fuzzy HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model with a Nonlinear Saturated Incidence Rate

This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemicmodel discusses the more detailed versions of the interactions between infective and susceptible people.Thenext-generation matrix approach is employed to find the reproduction number of a deterministic model.Thesensitivity analysis and local stability analysis of the systemare also provided.For solving the fuzzy epidemic model,a numerical scheme is constructed which consists of three time levels.The numerical scheme has an advantage overthe existing forward Euler scheme for determining the conditions of getting the positive solution.The establishedscheme also has an advantage over existing non-standard finite difference methods in terms of order of accuracy.The stability of the scheme for the considered fuzzy model is also provided.From the plotted results,it can beobserved that susceptible people decay by rising interaction parameters.

Individual dynamics and local heterogeneity provide a microscopic view of the epidemic spreading

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe global disasters,highlighting the importance of understanding the details and trends of epidemic transmission in order to introduce efficient intervention measures.While the widely used deterministic compartmental models have qualitatively presented continuous “analytical” insight and captured some transmission features,their treatment usually lacks spatiotemporal variation.Here,we propose a stochastic individual dynamical(SID)model to mimic the random and heterogeneous nature of epidemic propagation.The SID model provides a unifying framework for representing the spatiotemporal variations of epidemic development by tracking the movements of each individual.Using this model,we reproduce the infection curves for COVID-19 cases in different areas globally and find the local dynamics and heterogeneity at the individual level that affect the disease outbreak.The macroscopic trend of virus spreading is clearly illustrated from the microscopic perspective,enabling a quantitative assessment of different interventions.Seemingly,this model is also applicable to studying stochastic processes at the “meter scale”,e.g.,human society’s collective dynamics.

Current updates on the epidemiology,pathogenesis and development of small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of Ebola virus infections

Ebola virus disease(EVD)is a rare,highly contagious and a deadly disease with a variable fatality rate ranging from 30%to 90%.Over the past two decades,Ebola pandemic has severely affected the sub-Sahara region including Democratic Republic of the Congo(DRC),and Uganda.The causative agents of the most EVD cases are three distinct species out of six Ebolaviruses namely Zaire Ebolavirus(ZEBOV),Sudan Ebolavirus(SUDV)and Bundibugyo Ebolavirus(BDBV).In recent years,significant strides have been made in therapeutic interventions.Notably,the US Food and Drug Administration has approved two monoclonal antibodies:InmazebTM(REGN-EB3)and Ansuvimab or EbangaTM.Additionally,many small molecules are currently in the developmental stage,promising further progress in medical treatment.Addressing the critical need for preventive measures,this review provides an in-depth analysis of the licensed Ebola vaccines-Ervebo and the combination of Zabdeno(Ad26.ZEBOV)and Mvabea(MVA-BN-Filo)as well as the vaccines which are currently being tested for their efficacy and safety in clinical studies.These vaccines might play an important role in curbing the spread and mitigating the impact of this lethal disease.The current treatment landscape for EVD encompasses both nutritional(supportive)and drug therapies.The review comprehensively details the origin,pathogenesis,and epidemiology of EVD,shedding light on the ongoing efforts to combat this devastating disease.It explores small molecules in various stages of the development,discusses patents filed or granted,and delves into the clinical and supportive therapies that form the cornerstone of EVD management.This review aims to provide the recent developments made in the design and synthesis of small molecules for scientific community to facilitate a deeper understanding of the disease and fostering the development of effective strategies for prevention,treatment,and control of EVD.

Projecting the Dynamic Trends of Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome:Modeling the Epidemic in Sichuan Province, China

Objective Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the current status and dynamic trends of the human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)prevalence in Sichuan,the second most heavily affected province in China,and to explore future interventions.Methods The epidemiological,behavioral,and population census data from multiple sources were analyzed to extract inputs for an acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(AIDS)epidemic model(AEM).Baseline curves,derived from historical trends in HIV prevalence,were used,and the AEM was employed to examine future intervention scenarios.Results In 2015,the modeled data suggested an adult HIV prevalence of 0.191%in Sichuan,with an estimated 128,766 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,983 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.Considering current high-risk behaviors,the model predicts an increase in the adult prevalence to 0.306%by 2025,projecting an estimated 212,168 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,555 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.Conclusion Heterosexual transmission will likely emerge as the primary mode of AIDS transmission in Sichuan.Furthermore,we anticipate a stabilization in the incidence of AIDS with a concurrent increase in prevalence.Implementing comprehensive intervention measures aimed at high-risk groups could effectively alleviate the spread of AIDS in Sichuan.

Epidemic threshold influenced by non-pharmaceutical interventions in residential university environments

The control of highly contagious disease spreading in campuses is a critical challenge.In residential universities,students attend classes according to a curriculum schedule,and mainly pack into classrooms,dining halls and dorms.They move from one place to another.To simulate such environments,we propose an agent-based susceptible–infected–recovered model with time-varying heterogeneous contact networks.In close environments,maintaining physical distancing is the most widely recommended and encouraged non-pharmaceutical intervention.It can be easily realized by using larger classrooms,adopting staggered dining hours,decreasing the number of students per dorm and so on.Their real-world influence remains uncertain.With numerical simulations,we obtain epidemic thresholds.The effect of such countermeasures on reducing the number of disease cases is also quantitatively evaluated.

Vaccination and Measles Epidemic in the Republic of Congo

Measles is a highly infectious, vaccine-preventable viral disease. Often forgotten, it is potentially fatal. Its main symptoms are: fever, cough, conjunctivitis, rhinitis and skin rash. Serological diagnoses by ELISA test based on the detection of anti-measles virus immunoglobulins M and G (IgM and IgG), are used respectively for the confirmation of suspected cases notified by means of clinical signs of the disease in health structures of the twelve departments of the Republic of Congo involved in the epidemiological surveillance of the disease, and for the evaluation of the immunity conferred by vaccination. During 2021, 459 suspected cases of measles were reported and sampled throughout the country, despite the administration under the Expanded Routine Immunization Program (EPI), of 2 doses of the combined measles-rubella vaccine (RR1 and RR2) in 2020. The notification rate was higher in the south of the country, more precisely in the health structures of the departments of Pointe-Noire (42%) and Brazzaville (11%). During the year 2021, 459 suspected cases of measles were notified and sampled throughout the country with a high notification rate in the south of the country, more precisely in the health structures of the Pointe-Noire departments (42%) and Brazzaville (11%). The samples consisting of human blood (serum) were sent to the National Public Health Laboratory and analyzed by various ELISA tests for the detection of anti-measles immunog-lobulins M and G. The analysis of the results obtained shows that the measles virus circulated in all departments of the country. 154 cases (33.55%) were confirmed positive by IgM ELISA and 98 positive cases (63.63%) were patients vaccinated against measles. Vaccination coverage in RR1 of [50%-95% [(first dose) as well as the lowest RR2 < 50% (second dose) undoubtedly because the COVID-19 pandemic could be the cause of the high frequency of cases positive vaccinated. The non-detection of IgG immunoglobulins in vaccinated patients observed by IgG ELISA tests revealed that 63.26% of vaccinated patients were not immunized against the measles virus. These results confirm those obtained during the Elisa IgM analysis and make it possible to deduce that the quality, the number of doses not properly administered, the individual characteristics of the people as well as the poor conservation of the administered vaccine (non-compliance with the cold chain) would explain the high proportion of positive cases of vaccinated measles observed.

Research on the Control Cover against Solenopsis invicta and Rapid Extinguishment of Its Epidemic

Based on the biological characteristics of Solenopsis invicta and the structural characteristics of its ant nest,a fast and efficient closed treatment device was developed.Compared with the simple chemical treatment commonly used at present,the developed treatment device(the ant nest control cover)is a fast and efficient method to exterminate S.invicta in 7 d,featured by short course,quick results and good effect.

Stochastic Bifurcation of an SIS Epidemic Model with Treatment and Immigration

In this paper, we investigate an SIS model with treatment and immigration. Firstly, the two-dimensional model is simplified by using the stochastic averaging method. Then, we derive the local stability of the stochastic system by computing the Lyapunov exponent of the linearized system. Further, the global stability of the stochastic model is analyzed based on the singular boundary theory. Moreover, we prove that the model undergoes a Hopf bifurcation and a pitchfork bifurcation. Finally, several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results. .

Stability of a Delayed Stochastic Epidemic COVID-19 Model with Vaccination and with Differential Susceptibility

In this paper, we treat the spread of COVID-19 using a delayed stochastic SVIRS (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Susceptible) epidemic model with a general incidence rate and differential susceptibility. We start with a deterministic model, then add random perturbations on the contact rate using white noise to obtain a stochastic model. We first show that the delayed stochastic differential equation that describes the model has a unique global positive solution for any positive initial value. Under the condition R0 ≤ 1, we prove the almost sure asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the model.

Impact of individual behavior adoption heterogeneity on epidemic transmission in multiplex networks

In recent years, the impact of information diffusion and individual behavior adoption patterns on epidemic transmission in complex networks has received significant attention. In the immunization behavior adoption process, different individuals often make behavioral decisions in different ways, and it is of good practical importance to study the influence of individual heterogeneity on the behavior adoption process. In this paper, we propose a three-layer coupled model to analyze the process of co-evolution of official information diffusion, immunization behavior adoption and epidemic transmission in multiplex networks, focusing on individual heterogeneity in behavior adoption patterns. Specifically, we investigate the impact of the credibility of social media and the risk sensitivity of the population on behavior adoption in further study of the effect of heterogeneity of behavior adoption on epidemic transmission. Then we use the microscopic Markov chain approach to describe the dynamic process and capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold. Finally, we conduct extensive simulations to prove our findings. Our results suggest that enhancing the credibility of social media can raise the epidemic transmission threshold, making it effective at controlling epidemic transmission during the dynamic process. In addition, improving an individuals' risk sensitivity, and thus their taking effective protective measures, can also reduce the number of infected individuals and delay the epidemic outbreak. Our study explores the role of individual heterogeneity in behavior adoption in real networks, more clearly models the effect of the credibility of social media and risk sensitivity of the population on the epidemic transmission dynamic, and provides a useful reference for managers to formulate epidemic control and prevention policies.

Epidemic Japanese B encephalitis combined with contactinassociated protein-like 2 antibody-positive autoimmune encephalitis:A case report

BACKGROUND It is not uncommon to develop viral encephalitis.Epidemic Japanese B encephalitis infection combined with contactin-associated protein-like 2(CASPR-2)antibody-positive autoimmune encephalitis has not been reported at present.In clinical work,we need to consider more options.CASE SUMMARY A 32-year-old male worker presented with headache,fever and call-unresponsive presentation.Complete cranial magnetic resonance image showed symmetrical abnormal signals in bilateral medial temporal lobe,bilateral thalamus and basal ganglia.Improved lumbar puncture showed that cerebrospinal fluid protein and cell count increased significantly.Viral encephalitis was considered,and the patient's consciousness still increased rapidly after antiviral treatment.Further detection of Cerebrospinal fluid Japanese B encephalitis virus Polymerase Chain Reaction positive,serum autoimmune encephalitis antibody showed CASPR-2 antibody positive(1:320),the patient's condition gradually improved after plasma exchange treatment.3 mo later,the serum CASPR-2 antibody was negative and the patient's condition was stable.CONCLUSION This article reports the world’s first case of Epidemic Japanese B encephalitis infection combined with CASPR-2 antibody-positive autoimmune encephalitis,with a view to raising awareness.

Pedestrian Flow Characteristics and Optimization Strategies of Comprehensive Parks in the Central Urban Area of Beijing in the Context of COVID-19 Epidemic

Green space is the main public space in the city and plays an important role in urban environmental health and residents’physical and mental health.The outbreak of COVID-19 has put forward new requirements for urban green space construction in many aspects.Based on the population vitality data of comprehensive parks in the central urban area of Beijing,this paper evaluated urban comprehensive parks in the context of COVID-19 epidemic to reveal the changing process of their use and visit characteristics,and proposed suggestions and strategies to deal with the epidemic in comprehensive parks in the central urban area of Beijing.

Comparative Study on Chinese and Western Life Values in the Context of Epidemic

Life values are people’s understanding and view on life.After the COVID-19 outbreak,China quickly adopted policies such as lockdown to control the epidemic,while the west could not adopt.One of the important reasons is that Chinese and western life values are different.Through the comparative analysis on Chinese and western life values,it is found that Chinese traditional life values emphasize collective consciousness,while the west pays attention to individual value.Chinese traditional life values avoid death,while the west faces death directly.China emphasizes the present world,while the west pays attention to introspection.There are also similarities between Chinese and western life values.They both emphasize the realization of life values,desire to surpass life,and regard physical life as a natural process.The main reasons for their differences are different economic bases,different cultural influences,and different religious ideas.Therefore,the comparative analysis of Chinese and western life values has theoretical and practical value.

Time series analysis-based seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average to estimate hepatitis B and C epidemics in China

BACKGROUND Hepatitis B(HB)and hepatitis C(HC)place the largest burden in China,and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set.Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their spread is essential for developing effective strategies,heightening the requirement for early warning to deal with such a major public health threat.AIM To monitor HB and HC epidemics by the design of a paradigmatic seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average(SARFIMA)for projections into 2030,and to compare the effectiveness with the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA).METHODS Monthly HB and HC incidence cases in China were obtained from January 2004 to June 2023.Descriptive analysis and the Hodrick-Prescott method were employed to identify trends and seasonality.Two periods(from January 2004 to June 2022 and from January 2004 to December 2015,respectively)were used as the training sets to develop both models,while the remaining periods served as the test sets to evaluate the forecasting accuracy.RESULTS There were incidents of 23400874 HB cases and 3590867 HC cases from January 2004 to June 2023.Overall,HB remained steady[average annual percentage change(AAPC)=0.44,95%confidence interval(95%CI):-0.94-1.84]while HC was increasing(AAPC=8.91,95%CI:6.98-10.88),and both had a peak in March and a trough in February.In the 12-step-ahead HB forecast,the mean absolute deviation(15211.94),root mean square error(18762.94),mean absolute percentage error(0.17),mean error rate(0.15),and root mean square percentage error(0.25)under the best SARFIMA(3,0,0)(0,0.449,2)12 were smaller than those under the best SARIMA(3,0,0)(0,1,2)12(16867.71,20775.12,0.19,0.17,and 0.27,respectively).Similar results were also observed for the 90-step-ahead HB,12-step-ahead HC,and 90-step-ahead HC forecasts.The predicted HB incidents totaled 9865400(95%CI:7508093-12222709)cases and HC totaled 1659485(95%CI:856681-2462290)cases during 2023-2030.CONCLUSION Under current interventions,China faces enormous challenges to eliminate HB and HC epidemics by 2030,and effective strategies must be reinforced.The integration of SARFIMA into public health for the management of HB and HC epidemics can potentially result in more informed and efficient interventions,surpassing the capabilities of SARIMA.

Risk Factors for Severity and Mortality of Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19 during the 3rd Wave of the Epidemic-Sao Tome and Principe

Rationale: In the literature, some risk factors for severity and mortality from COVID-19 have been indicated. However, these factors can change, depending on the characteristics of the population and health services. In this sense, longitudinal studies can be useful for understanding local realities and subsidizing health actions based on these realities. Objective: To analyze the risk factors for severity and death in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Methods: A retrospective cohort of patients with COVID-19 hospitalized from August 1 to October 16, 2021 (3rd wave of the pandemic), notified by the Department of Epidemiological Surveillance of Sao Tome and Principe. We employed measures of strength of associations for the analysis of exposure risk factors. Results: We analyzed 110 hospitalized patients (31.8% severe-critical and 68.2% non-severe). The risk factors for severe forms of COVID-19 were: being aged ≥60 years (RR = 3.3), being male (RR = 2), having comorbidities (RR = 2) and the risk increases to 10-fold for multicomorbidities, with emphasis on obesity, neoplasia, skin-muscle-surgical infection, dementia and to some degree CVD. 62.9% of patients with severe forms of the disease were not vaccinated. Risk factors for death among hospitalized and severe/critical cases, respectively, were having comorbidities (RR = 8 and 2.4) multicomorbidities (RR = 10 and 2.8 for those with 2 comorbidities and RR = 33.3 and 4 for those with 3 or 4 comorbidities), especially diabetes, dementia, neoplasia, cutaneous-muscular infection, and obesity. Although CVD was not associated with risk factors for death, these were the most frequently found among the severely hospitalized and deaths. In addition, important risk factors associated with death were not using corticoids (RR = 3.3, 230-fold risk) and not using anticoagulants-heparin (RR = 1.3, 30% risk) more compared to the severe cases that did use them. Most of the patients who died (63.2%) were not vaccinated. Moreover, having only 1 dose of the vaccine was a risk factor 1.9 times more for death among all hospitalized patients, but in the severe cases, there was no association between the variable vaccination and death. Among those hospitalized with 2 doses, it was a 0.5-fold protective factor among those hospitalized. The Delta variant of Sarscov-2 was the one found among severe cases and deaths investigated by genetic sequencing, with more exuberant clinical features compared to the other 2 previous vaccinations. Conclusion: Being elderly, male and presenting comorbidities, mainly multicomorbidities were the main characteristics associated with severity of COVID-19. On the other hand, comorbidities, and even worse, multicomorbidities, hospitalization for respiratory failure, lowered level of consciousness, no use of corticoid and no use of anticoagulation in critically ill patients, and not having at least 2 doses of vaccine for covid-19, were characteristics associated with death by COVID-19. These results will help inform healthcare providers so that the best interventions can be implemented to improve outcomes for patients with COVID-19. Public health interventions must be carefully tailored and implemented in these susceptible groups to reduce the risk of mortality in patients with COVID-19 and then the risk of major complications. Intensive and regular follow-up is needed to detect early occurrences of clinical conditions.