Evaluating the Formation Mechanisms of the Equatorial Pacific SST Warming Pattern in CMIP5 Models

Based on the historical and RCP8.5 runs of the multi-model ensemble of 32 models participating in CMIP5, the present study evaluates the formation mechanisms for the patterns of changes in equatorial Pacific SST under global warming. Two features with complex formation processes, the zonal E1 Nifio-like pattern and the meridional equatorial peak warm- ing （EPW）, are investigated. The climatological evaporation is the main contributor to the E1 Nifio-like pattern, while the ocean dynamical thermostat effect plays a comparable negative role. The cloud-shortwave-radiation-SST feedback and the weakened Walker circulation play a small positive role in the E1 Nifio-like pattern. The processes associated with ocean dynamics are confined to the equator. The climatological evaporation is also the dominant contributor to the EPW pattern, as suggested in previous studies. However, the effects of some processes are inconsistent with previous studies. For example, changes in the zonal heat advection due to the weakened Walker circulation have a remarkable positive contribution to the EPW pattern, and changes in the shortwave radiation play a negative role in the EPW pattern.

Numerical simulation of influence of the anomalies of theCentral-eastern Equatorial Pacific SST and Arctic seaice cover in summer on the atmospheric circulation

A series of numerical experiments have been conducted with a perpetual July, nine-level general circulation spectral model to determine the effect of variation of the Arctic sea ice cover extent and the joint effect of anomalies of both the Arctic sea ice cover and the Central-eastern Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature on the summer general circulation. Results show that the two factors,anomalously large extent of the Arctic sea ice cover and anomalously warm sea surface temperature over the Central-eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean, play substantially the equal role in the effect on the summer general circulation, and either of them can notably induce the atmospheric anomalies. The main dynamical processes determining the effect of the Arctic sea ice and the equatorial SST anomalies are associated with two leading teleconnection patterns, i. e. the Asia North/American and Eurasian patterns observed in atmosphere. The results presented in this paper again prove that the general circulation is fundamentally motivated by the non-uniform heating between the equator and the pole on the rotating earth.

Response of global subtropical highs to the equatorial eastern Pacific SST anomaly

Based on the reanalysis data of global 500hPa geopotential height (NCEP NCAR CDAS-1) and tropical Pacific SSTs, the characteristics of global subtropical highs and their response to tropical eastern Pacific SST are investigated. Results show that global subtropical highs respond to SST consistently. Subtropical high intensity correlates to the 3 months leading SST maximally. The relationship between SST and 500hPa height stands out in low latitudes. The time for 500hPa height reaching maximuxn correlation to SST is 2 months later in latitude of 10 degree and 9 months in latitude of 30 degree than equatorial zone. And the response of atmospheric circulation over extratropic performs as wave train, and the response is more significant in the condition of warmer SST. Persistence of SSTs and subtropical highs changes obviously from season to season. Minimum persistence of subtropical highs in September and October may relate to the low persistence of SSTs in August and September.

NEURAL NETWORK BP MODEL APPROXIMATION AND PREDICTION OF COMPLICATED WEATHER SYSTEMS

An artificial neural network BP model and its revised algorithm are used to approximate quite successfully a Lorenz chaotic dynamic system and the mapping relation is established between the indices of Southern Oscillation and equatorial zonal wind and lagged equatorial eastern Pacific sea surface temperature(SST) in the context of NCEP/NCAR data,and thereby a model is prepared. The constructed net model shows fairly high fit precision and feasible prediction accuracy,thus making itself of some usefulness to the prognosis of intricate weather systems.