Relationships between Terrain Features and Forecasting Errors of Surface Wind Speeds in a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model

Numerical weather prediction(NWP)models have always presented large forecasting errors of surface wind speeds over regions with complex terrain.In this study,surface wind forecasts from an operational NWP model,the SMS-WARR(Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System),are analyzed to quantitatively reveal the relationships between the forecasted surface wind speed errors and terrain features,with the intent of providing clues to better apply the NWP model to complex terrain regions.The terrain features are described by three parameters:the standard deviation of the model grid-scale orography,terrain height error of the model,and slope angle.The results show that the forecast bias has a unimodal distribution with a change in the standard deviation of orography.The minimum ME(the mean value of bias)is 1.2 m s^(-1) when the standard deviation is between 60 and 70 m.A positive correlation exists between bias and terrain height error,with the ME increasing by 10%−30%for every 200 m increase in terrain height error.The ME decreases by 65.6%when slope angle increases from(0.5°−1.5°)to larger than 3.5°for uphill winds but increases by 35.4%when the absolute value of slope angle increases from(0.5°−1.5°)to(2.5°−3.5°)for downhill winds.Several sensitivity experiments are carried out with a model output statistical(MOS)calibration model for surface wind speeds and ME(RMSE)has been reduced by 90%(30%)by introducing terrain parameters,demonstrating the value of this study.

Convergence analysis for complementary-label learning with kernel ridge regression

Complementary-label learning(CLL)aims at finding a classifier via samples with complementary labels.Such data is considered to contain less information than ordinary-label samples.The transition matrix between the true label and the complementary label,and some loss functions have been developed to handle this problem.In this paper,we show that CLL can be transformed into ordinary classification under some mild conditions,which indicates that the complementary labels can supply enough information in most cases.As an example,an extensive misclassification error analysis was performed for the Kernel Ridge Regression(KRR)method applied to multiple complementary-label learning(MCLL),which demonstrates its superior performance compared to existing approaches.

R-Factor Analysis of Data Based on Population Models Comprising R- and Q-Factors Leads to Biased Loading Estimates

Effects of performing an R-factor analysis of observed variables based on population models comprising R- and Q-factors were investigated. Although R-factor analysis of data based on a population model comprising R- and Q-factors is possible, this may lead to model error. Accordingly, loading estimates resulting from R-factor analysis of sample data drawn from a population based on a combination of R- and Q-factors will be biased. It was shown in a simulation study that a large amount of Q-factor variance induces an increase in the variation of R-factor loading estimates beyond the chance level. Tests of the multivariate kurtosis of observed variables are proposed as an indicator of possible Q-factor variance in observed variables as a prerequisite for R-factor analysis.

Online Capacitor Voltage Transformer Measurement Error State Evaluation Method Based on In-Phase Relationship and Abnormal Point Detection

The assessment of the measurement error status of online Capacitor Voltage Transformers (CVT) within the power grid is of profound significance to the equitable trade of electric energy and the secure operation of the power grid. This paper advances an online CVT error state evaluation method, anchored in the in-phase relationship and outlier detection. Initially, this method leverages the in-phase relationship to obviate the influence of primary side fluctuations in the grid on assessment accuracy. Subsequently, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is employed to meticulously disentangle the error change information inherent in the CVT from the measured values and to compute statistics that delineate the error state. Finally, the Local Outlier Factor (LOF) is deployed to discern outliers in the statistics, with thresholds serving to appraise the CVT error state. Experimental results incontrovertibly demonstrate the efficacy of this method, showcasing its prowess in effecting online tracking of CVT error changes and conducting error state assessments. The discernible enhancements in reliability, accuracy, and sensitivity are manifest, with the assessment accuracy reaching an exemplary 0.01%.

Error Analysis of English Pronunciation Acquisition by Chinese Non-English Majors

Chinese non-English majors are a large group of English learners.In the process of English pronunciation acquisition,issues such as incomplete phonological knowledge,transfer of mother tongue,and overgeneralization,lead to confusion of phonemes and stress,misunderstanding of syllable structure,and errors of assimilation,drop,and epenthesis.The accuracy of English pronunciation can only be improved by knowing both English and Chinese phonological systems,strengthening the teaching of English phonological knowledge,and adopting various phonological training activities.

A Brief Study of Second Language Learning Strategies From the Perspective of Error Analysis

Language teaching is not a one-way process.It interacts with language learning in an extremely intricate way.To improve language teaching,we need to take the process of language learning into account.This paper tries to explore and understand what strategies the second language learners consciously or subconsciously adopt during their language learning process through the analyses of the linguistic errors they commit,so as to provide some insights into language teaching practice.

DEVELOPMENT AND ERROR ANALYSIS OF AN INSPECTING SYSTEM FOR MEASURING THE ROTATIONAL INERTIA OF BULLETS

介绍了一种用于测量弹丸转动惯量的高精度测量仪器，该仪器利用双悬丝扭摆机构、光电计时系统提取摆动周期信息，由MCS-51系列单片机组成的测量系统进行数据处理，并由LED显示器测量结果。文中阐述了仪器的工作原理， 推导了所需的计算公式，分析了产生测量误差的因素，进行了定量精度分析，给出了实验结果与测量精度。

Instantaneous rotation speed measurement and error analysis for variable speed hydraulic system

In order to monitor the working state of piston motor and measure its instantaneous rotation speed accurately, the measuring principle and method of instantaneous rotation speed based on industrial personal computer and data acquisition card are introduced, and the major error source, influence mechanism and processing method of data quantization error are dis- cussed. By means of hybrid programming approach of LabVIEW and MATLAB, the instantaneous rotation speed measurement system for the piston motor in variable speed hydraulic system is designed. The simulation and experimental results show that the designed instantaneous speed measurement system is feasible. Furthermore, the sampling frequency has an important influ- ence on the instantaneous rotation speed measurement of piston motor and higher sampling frequency can lower quantization er- ror and improve measurement accuracy.

Error Analysis in Foreign Language Teaching

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Error Analysis and Error Correction in English Learning

As a field in applied linguistics, error analysis is not only an instrument for language acquisition research but also an auxiliary tool for language teaching. It plays a significant role both in exploring the learning rules and improving the teaching of foreign languages. With this information, teachers could adjust their teaching plan and make their teaching more effective. In this paper I present some common errors that my students make in their learning process. Based on these, a further elaboration on how to correct errors, including the attitudes to them, the integrative principles, the concrete methods and techniques for error correction is discussed as well.

基于CREAM方法的海上风机安装人因可靠性评估

采用认知可靠性和差错分析法(Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method,CREAM)对固定式海上风机安装作业的人因可靠性进行评估,并引入结构熵权法和马尔可夫方法对传统CREAM进行改进,实现人因差错概率、平均人为差错时间等人因可靠性指标的定量计算。在充分结合现实条件的情况下,考虑海上风机安装的天气、海浪和操作水平等环境和人为因素的影响,针对固定式海上风机安装作业的要求和特点,结合作业人员可靠性评估结果,从操作素质、组织管理、环境改善等方面提出发展建议。

Error Analysis and Foreign Language Teaching

English is considered as a foreign language instead of a second language in China,but language learning has a lot in common.As a non-English major college teacher,this thesis is intended to have an analysis of the common errors made by non-English major college students and try to detect their possible sources which mirrors the strategies that learners use to acquire a language,and make an present some suggestions on how to avoid certain kinds of errors for the attempt to language learners.

FMEA模型和6S管理方法在降低儿童专科医院PIVAS调剂差错中的应用

目的降低儿童专科医院静脉药物配置中心(PIVAS)的调剂差错。方法采用失效模式和效应分析(FMEA)模型,对我院PIVAS调剂流程进行风险识别,找出各环节中可能导致调剂差错的潜在失效模式,分析其失效原因,并对潜在失效模式的严重度、发生率和检测度进行量化评分,计算其风险优先指数,从而筛选需要优先改善的失效模式;应用6S管理方法,从整理(seiri)、整顿(seiton)、清扫(seiso)、清洁(seiketsu)、素养(shitsuke)和安全(safety)6个方面制定相应的改善措施,并对实施前后的干预效果进行评价。结果根据风险优先指数评估筛选出32个潜在失效模式,其中需要优先改善的关键失效模式共18个。根据6S管理方法采取相应措施后,18个关键失效模式的风险优先指数均有所下降,风险优先指数值由497降至142,降幅达71.43%;其中15个关键失效模式的差错率均较实施前显著降低(P<0.05)。结论应用FMEA模式和6S管理方法对PIVAS工作流程的各环节进行风险管控的预测和改进,能有效降低PIVAS调剂差错风险,保障儿童静脉用药安全。

Error Analysis of Three Degree-of-Freedom Changeable Parallel Measuring Mechanism

A three degree-of-freedom (DOF) planar changeable parallel mechanism is designed by means of control of different drive parameters. This mechanism possesses the characteristics of two kinds of parallel mechanism. Based on its topologic structure, a coordinate system for position analysis is set-up and the forward kinematic solutions are analyzed. It was found that the parallel mechanism is partially decoupled. The relationship between original errors and position-stance error of moving platform is built according to the complete differential-coefficient theory. Then we present a special example with theory values and errors to evaluate the error model, and numerical error solutions are gained. The investigations concentrating on mechanism errors and actuator errors show that the mechanism errors have more influences on the position-stance of the moving platform. It is demonstrated that improving manufacturing and assembly techniques can greatly reduce the moving platform error. The small change in position-stance error in different kinematic positions proves that the error-compensation of software can improve considerably the precision of parallel mechanism.

An analysis on the error structure and mechanism of soil moisture and ocean salinity remotely sensed sea surface salinity products

For the application of soil moisture and ocean salinity（SMOS） remotely sensed sea surface salinity（SSS） products,SMOS SSS global maps and error characteristics have been investigated based on quality control information.The results show that the errors of SMOS SSS products are distributed zonally,i.e.,relatively small in the tropical oceans,but much greater in the southern oceans in the Southern Hemisphere（negative bias） and along the southern,northern and some other oceanic margins（positive or negative bias）.The physical elements responsible for these errors include wind,temperature,and coastal terrain and so on.Errors in the southern oceans are due to the bias in an SSS retrieval algorithm caused by the coexisting high wind speed and low temperature; errors along the oceanic margins are due to the bias in a brightness temperature（TB） reconstruction caused by the high contrast between L-band emissivities from ice or land and from ocean; in addition,some other systematic errors are due to the bias in TB observation caused by a radio frequency interference and a radiometer receivers drift,etc.The findings will contribute to the scientific correction and appropriate application of the SMOS SSS products.

Mathematical modeling and characteristics analysis for the nutation gear drive based on error parameters

We focused on the mathematical modeling and characteristics analysis for the nutation drive based on error parameters. The crown gear tooth profile equation was introduced according to the national standard double circular arc tooth profile and based on the equal tooth strength principle. The nutation drive meshing coordinate system was set up by introducing the cone vertex error, tilt error, nutation angle error and spiral angle error. The tooth profile equations of the double circular arc external and internal spiral bevel gears were further obtained based on the crown gear tooth profile equation concerning above mentioned error parameters. The influences of the nutation gear reducer tooth contact conditions were analyzed with the gear tilt error and axial misalignment error. Finally, the correctness of the theoretical analysis was verified by the contact spot test.

Analysis and modeling of error of spiral bevel gear grinder based on multi-body system theory

Six-axis numerical control spiral bevel gear grinder was taken as the object, multi-body system theory and Denavit-Hartenberg homogeneous transformed matrix （HTM） were utilized to establish the grinder synthesis error model, and the validity of model was confirmed by the experiment. Additionally, in grinding wheel tool point coordinate system, the errors of six degrees of freedom were simulated when the grinding wheel revolving around C-axis, moving along X-axis and Y-axis. The influence of these six errors on teeth space, helix angle, pitch, teeth profile was discussed. The simulation results show that the angle error is in the range from -0.148 4 tad to -0.241 9 rad when grinding wheel moving along X, Y-axis; the translation error is in the range from 0.866 0 μm to 3.605 3μm when grinding wheel moving along X-axis. These angle and translation errors have a great influence on the helix angle, pitch, teeth thickness and tooth socket.

Analysis on the Reason of Local Heavy Rainstorm Forecast Error in the Subtropical High Control

[Objective] The research aimed to study the reason of local heavy rainstorm forecast error in the subtropical high control. [Method] Started from summarizing the reason of forecast error, by using the conventional ground observation data, the upper air sounding data, T639, T213 and European Center (ECMWF) numerical prediction product data, GFS precipitation forecast product of U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction, the weather situation, physical quantity field in a heavy rainstorm process which happened in the north of Shaoyang at night on August 5, 2010 were fully analyzed. Based on the numerical analysis forecast product data, the reason of heavy rainstorm forecast error in the subtropical high was comprehensively analyzed by using the comparison and analysis method of forecast and actual situation. [Result] The forecasters didn’t deeply and carefully analyze the weather situation. On the surface, 500 hPa was controlled by the subtropical high, but there was the weak shear line in 700 and 850 hPa. Moreover, they neglected the influences of weak cold air and easterlies wave. The subtropical high quickly weakened, and the system adjustment was too quick. The wind field variations in 850, 700 and 500 hPa which were forecasted by ECMWF had the big error with the actual situation. It was by east about 2 longitudes than the actual situation. In summer forecast, they only considered the intensity and position variations of 500 hPa subtropical high, and neglected the situation variations in the middle, low levels and on the ground. It was the most key element which caused the rainstorm forecast error in the subtropical high. The forecast error of numerical forecast products on the height field situation variation was big. The precipitation forecasts of Japan FSAS, U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction GFS, T639 and T213 were all small. The humidity field forecast value of T639 was small. In the rainstorm forecast, the local rainstorm forecast index and method weren’t used in the forecast practice. In the precipitation forecast process, they only paid attention to the score prediction of station and didn’t value the non-site prediction. Some important physical quantity factors weren’t carefully studied. [Conclusion] The research provided the reference basis for the forecast and early warning of local heavy rainstorm.

Error Analysis of A New Higher Order Boundary Element Method for A Uniform Flow Passing Cylinders

A higher order boundary element method(HOBEM)is presented for inviscid flow passing cylinders in bounded or unbounded domain.The traditional boundary integral equation is established with respect to the velocity potential and its normal derivative.In present work,a new integral equation is derived for the tangential velocity.The boundary is discretized into higher order elements to ensure the continuity of slope at the element nodes.The velocity potential is also expanded with higher order shape functions,in which the unknown coefficients involve the tangential velocity.The expansion then ensures the continuities of the velocity and the slope of the boundary at element nodes.Through extensive comparison of the results for the analytical solution of cylinders,it is shown that the present HOBEM is much more accurate than the conventional BEM.