Data processing and error analysis for the CE-1 Lunar microwave radiometer

The microwave radiometer （MRM） onboard the Chang＇ E-1 （CE-I） lu- nar orbiter is a 4-frequency microwave radiometer, and it is mainly used to obtain the brightness temperature （TB） of the lunar surface, from which the thickness, temperature, dielectric constant and other related properties of the lunar regolith can be derived. The working mode of the CE-1 MRM, the ground calibration （including the official calibration coefficients）, as well as the acquisition and processing of the raw data are introduced. Our data analysis shows that TB increases with increasing frequency, decreases towards the lunar poles and is significantly affected by solar illumination. Our analysis also reveals that the main uncertainty in TB comes from ground calibration.

An Evaluation of Human Error Probabilities for Critical Failures in Auxiliary Systems of Marine Diesel Engines

Human error,an important factor,may lead to serious results in various operational fields.The human factor plays a critical role in the risks and hazards of the maritime industry.A ship can achieve safe navigation when all operations in the engine room are conducted vigilantly.This paper presents a systematic evaluation of 20 failures in auxiliary systems of marine diesel engines that may be caused by human error.The Cognitive Reliability Error Analysis Method(CREAM)is used to determine the potentiality of human errors in the failures implied thanks to the answers of experts.Using this method,the probabilities of human error on failures were evaluated and the critical ones were emphasized.The measures to be taken for these results will make significant contributions not only to the seafarers but also to the ship owners.

Quantitative Human Reliability Analysis for Crew During Shipping Operation

A simplified bi-variable human error probability calculation method is developed by incorporating two common performance condition( CPC) factors, which are modified from factors employed in cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM) to take into account the characteristics of shipping operations. After the influencing factors are identified, Markov method is used to calculate the values of human reliability. The proposed method does not rely on the involvement of experts in the field of human factor nor depend on historical accidents or human error statistics. It is applied to the case of the crew on board of an ocean going dry bulk carrier. The caculated results agree with the actual case, which verifies the validity of the model.

Human Reliability Analysis Method on Armored Vehicle System Considering Error Correction

Human reliability analysis(HRA) is an expansion of man-machine engineering. It is also a new multidisciplinary based on behavioral science, cognitive science, information processing, system analysis and probability statistics in order to analyze, predict, reduce and prevent human errors. Firstly, the quantitative analysis model of HRA is proposed based on Markov process theory by using human error probability(HEP) and error correction cycle(ECC) as parameters. And human reliability evaluation criterion is built. Then, the HRA process considering error correction is proposed based on cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM). Finally, according to the characteristics of armored vehicle system, common performance condition(CPC) in CREAM is improved.A reliability impact index is characterized by the overall contexts of tasks. Human reliability evaluation criterion of armored vehicle system is formulated. And the result of HRA is obtained based on the method presented in this paper. In addition, the relative weights are estimated by combining scale of 10/10—18/2 and analytical hierarchy process(AHP), and the triangular fuzzy number considering confidence factor and optimism index is adopted in order to reduce the subjectivity. The analysis results show that the method presented in this paper is reasonable and feasible. Meantime, the method can provide guidance for human reliability analysis of other weapon systems.

Assessment of Comprehensive Carrying Capacity of Land Resources Based on Land Functions

Based on relevant research results,from the perspective of land use functions,an evaluation indicator system of carrying capacity of land resources composed of three second-grade indicators( production,living and ecological carrying capacity) including 24 third-grade indicators was established,and the carrying capacity of land resources in ten cities of Shaanxi Province in 2013 was assessed and analyzed by using mean square error analysis method and hierarchical clustering method. The results showed that the three types of carrying capacity in most cities of Shaanxi Province are shown as follows: ecological carrying capacity > living carrying capacity > production carrying capacity,and the differences between various regions in a single type of carrying capacity basically accorded with the actual situation of development in each city; there were obvious differences between various cities in the comprehensive carrying capacity of land resources,which was basically consistent with regional economic and social development.

Convergence analysis of self-tuning Riccati equation for systems with correlation noises

For linear discrete time-invariant stochastic system with correlated noises,and with unknown state transition matrix and unknown noise statistics,substituting the online consistent estimators of the state transition matrix and noise statistics into steady-state optimal Riccati equation,a new self-tuning Riccati equation is presented.A dynamic variance error system analysis(DVESA)method is presented,which transforms the convergence problem of self-tuning Riccati equation into the stability problem of a time-varying Lyapunov equation.Two decision criterions of the stability for the Lyapunov equation are presented.Using the DVESA method and Kalman filtering stability theory,it proves that with probability 1,the solution of self-tuning Riccati equation converges to the solution of the steady-state optimal Riccati equation or time-varying optimal Riccati equation.The proposed method can be applied to design a new selftuning information fusion Kalman filter and will provide the theoretical basis for solving the convergence problem of self-tuning filters.A numerical simulation example shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.