A novel approach for engineering application to human error probability quantification is presented based on an overview of the existing human reliability analysis methods. The set of performance shaping factors is cl...A novel approach for engineering application to human error probability quantification is presented based on an overview of the existing human reliability analysis methods. The set of performance shaping factors is classified as two subsets of dominant factors and adjusting factors respectively. Firstly, the dominant factors are used to determine the probabilities of three behavior modes. The basic probability and its interval of human error for each behavior mode are given. Secondly, the basic probability and its interval are modified by the adjusting factors, and the total probability of human error is calculated by a total probability formula. Finally, a simple example is introduced, and the consistency and validity of the presented approach are illustrated.展开更多
Fuzzy regression analysis is an important regression analysis method to predict uncertain information in the real world. In this paper, the input data are crisp with randomness;the output data are trapezoid fuzzy numb...Fuzzy regression analysis is an important regression analysis method to predict uncertain information in the real world. In this paper, the input data are crisp with randomness;the output data are trapezoid fuzzy number, and three different risk preferences and chaos optimization algorithm are introduced to establish fuzzy regression model. On the basis of the principle of the minimum total spread between the observed and the estimated values, risk-neutral, risk-averse, and risk-seeking fuzzy regression model are developed to obtain the parameters of fuzzy linear regression model. Chaos optimization algorithm is used to determine the digital characteristic of random variables. The mean absolute percentage error and variance of errors are adopted to compare the modeling results. A stock rating case is used to evaluate the fuzzy regression models. The comparisons with five existing methods show that our proposed method has satisfactory performance.展开更多
目的:管控中日友好医院(以下简称“我院”)新药引进后潜在的药品调剂差错风险,保障患者用药安全。方法:介绍我院根据危害分7析和关键控制点法(hazard analysis and critical control point,HACCP)管控新药引进后潜在药品调剂差错风险的...目的:管控中日友好医院(以下简称“我院”)新药引进后潜在的药品调剂差错风险,保障患者用药安全。方法:介绍我院根据危害分7析和关键控制点法(hazard analysis and critical control point,HACCP)管控新药引进后潜在药品调剂差错风险的步骤和效果。结果:我院从建立工作组入手,绘制新药引进后调剂流程图,根据HACCP原则制订计划[包括危害分析,确定关键控制点(critical control point,CCP),建立关键限值、监测体系、纠偏措施、确认程序和质量记录档案],确定4个CCP,即调配窗口备药、摆药机调配药品、后台药师复核调配药品和前台药师审核处方、核对并发放药品。针对上述CCP制订并实施了相应的管控措施,实现了对新药引进后调剂差错风险的有效管控。与实施HACCP前比较,实施HACCP后我院药品调剂差错率从5.29‰降至3.20‰,差异有统计学意义(χ^2=179.1,P<0.05)。结论:将HACCP科学地运用于医院新药引进后调剂环节的风险管理,可以有效控制调剂差错风险,保障患者用药安全。展开更多
文摘A novel approach for engineering application to human error probability quantification is presented based on an overview of the existing human reliability analysis methods. The set of performance shaping factors is classified as two subsets of dominant factors and adjusting factors respectively. Firstly, the dominant factors are used to determine the probabilities of three behavior modes. The basic probability and its interval of human error for each behavior mode are given. Secondly, the basic probability and its interval are modified by the adjusting factors, and the total probability of human error is calculated by a total probability formula. Finally, a simple example is introduced, and the consistency and validity of the presented approach are illustrated.
文摘Fuzzy regression analysis is an important regression analysis method to predict uncertain information in the real world. In this paper, the input data are crisp with randomness;the output data are trapezoid fuzzy number, and three different risk preferences and chaos optimization algorithm are introduced to establish fuzzy regression model. On the basis of the principle of the minimum total spread between the observed and the estimated values, risk-neutral, risk-averse, and risk-seeking fuzzy regression model are developed to obtain the parameters of fuzzy linear regression model. Chaos optimization algorithm is used to determine the digital characteristic of random variables. The mean absolute percentage error and variance of errors are adopted to compare the modeling results. A stock rating case is used to evaluate the fuzzy regression models. The comparisons with five existing methods show that our proposed method has satisfactory performance.
文摘目的:管控中日友好医院(以下简称“我院”)新药引进后潜在的药品调剂差错风险,保障患者用药安全。方法:介绍我院根据危害分7析和关键控制点法(hazard analysis and critical control point,HACCP)管控新药引进后潜在药品调剂差错风险的步骤和效果。结果:我院从建立工作组入手,绘制新药引进后调剂流程图,根据HACCP原则制订计划[包括危害分析,确定关键控制点(critical control point,CCP),建立关键限值、监测体系、纠偏措施、确认程序和质量记录档案],确定4个CCP,即调配窗口备药、摆药机调配药品、后台药师复核调配药品和前台药师审核处方、核对并发放药品。针对上述CCP制订并实施了相应的管控措施,实现了对新药引进后调剂差错风险的有效管控。与实施HACCP前比较,实施HACCP后我院药品调剂差错率从5.29‰降至3.20‰,差异有统计学意义(χ^2=179.1,P<0.05)。结论:将HACCP科学地运用于医院新药引进后调剂环节的风险管理,可以有效控制调剂差错风险,保障患者用药安全。
