The accurate quantification of human error probability(HEP) has long been a main pursuit for most human reliability analysis(HRA) methods. This paper proposes a strategy to analyzeand predict human error on the basis ...The accurate quantification of human error probability(HEP) has long been a main pursuit for most human reliability analysis(HRA) methods. This paper proposes a strategy to analyzeand predict human error on the basis of a further modification of theexisting cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM)in HRA. Through providing a broader definition for the key parametersused in the quantification method, this paper produces arelatively flexible strategy to determine the nominal HEP (HEP0).Basing on this strategy, the actual quantification of HEP in CREAMis able to be applied to more verified conditions. To prove the validityof the method proposed, a case study of spacecraft launch isalso introduced, in which the prediction derived from the method isproved consistent with real field data.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(7117100871571004)
文摘The accurate quantification of human error probability(HEP) has long been a main pursuit for most human reliability analysis(HRA) methods. This paper proposes a strategy to analyzeand predict human error on the basis of a further modification of theexisting cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM)in HRA. Through providing a broader definition for the key parametersused in the quantification method, this paper produces arelatively flexible strategy to determine the nominal HEP (HEP0).Basing on this strategy, the actual quantification of HEP in CREAMis able to be applied to more verified conditions. To prove the validityof the method proposed, a case study of spacecraft launch isalso introduced, in which the prediction derived from the method isproved consistent with real field data.
