A unified Minorization-Maximization approach for estimation of general mixture models

The mixed distribution model is often used to extract information from heteroge-neous data and perform modeling analysis.When the density function of mixed distribution is complicated or the variable dimension is high,it usually brings challenges to the parameter es-timation of the mixed distribution model.The application of MM algorithm can avoid complex expectation calculations,and can also solve the problem of high-dimensional optimization by decomposing the objective function.In this paper,MM algorithm is applied to the parameter estimation problem of mixed distribution model.The method of assembly and decomposition is used to construct the substitute function with separable parameters,which avoids the problems of complex expectation calculations and the inversion of high-dimensional matrices.

An Efficient Reliability-Based Optimization Method Utilizing High-Dimensional Model Representation and Weight-Point Estimation Method

The objective of reliability-based design optimization(RBDO)is to minimize the optimization objective while satisfying the corresponding reliability requirements.However,the nested loop characteristic reduces the efficiency of RBDO algorithm,which hinders their application to high-dimensional engineering problems.To address these issues,this paper proposes an efficient decoupled RBDO method combining high dimensional model representation(HDMR)and the weight-point estimation method(WPEM).First,we decouple the RBDO model using HDMR and WPEM.Second,Lagrange interpolation is used to approximate a univariate function.Finally,based on the results of the first two steps,the original nested loop reliability optimization model is completely transformed into a deterministic design optimization model that can be solved by a series of mature constrained optimization methods without any additional calculations.Two numerical examples of a planar 10-bar structure and an aviation hydraulic piping system with 28 design variables are analyzed to illustrate the performance and practicability of the proposed method.

Model-driven full system dynamics estimation of PMSM-driven chain shell magazine

Based on the system dynamic model, a full system dynamics estimation method is proposed for a chain shell magazine driven by a permanent magnet synchronous motor(PMSM). An adaptive extended state observer(AESO) is proposed to estimate the unmeasured states and disturbance, in which the model parameters are adjusted in real time. Theoretical analysis shows that the estimation errors of the disturbances and unmeasured states converge exponentially to zero, and the parameter estimation error can be obtained from the extended state. Then, based on the extended state of the AESO, a novel parameter estimation law is designed. Due to the convergence of AESO, the novel parameter estimation law is insensitive to controllers and excitation signal. Under persistent excitation(PE) condition, the estimated parameters will converge to a compact set around the actual parameter value. Without PE signal, the estimated parameters will converge to zero for the extended state. Simulation and experimental results show that the proposed method can accurately estimate the unmeasured states and disturbance of the chain shell magazine, and the estimated parameters will converge to the actual value without strictly continuous PE signals.

Multiple model PHD filter for tracking sharply maneuvering targets using recursive RANSAC based adaptive birth estimation

An algorithm to track multiple sharply maneuvering targets without prior knowledge about new target birth is proposed. These targets are capable of achieving sharp maneuvers within a short period of time, such as drones and agile missiles.The probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter, which propagates only the first-order statistical moment of the full target posterior, has been shown to be a computationally efficient solution to multitarget tracking problems. However, the standard PHD filter operates on the single dynamic model and requires prior information about target birth distribution, which leads to many limitations in terms of practical applications. In this paper,we introduce a nonzero mean, white noise turn rate dynamic model and generalize jump Markov systems to multitarget case to accommodate sharply maneuvering dynamics. Moreover, to adaptively estimate newborn targets’information, a measurement-driven method based on the recursive random sampling consensus (RANSAC) algorithm is proposed. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves significant improvement in tracking multiple sharply maneuvering targets with adaptive birth estimation.

Enhancing Software Effort Estimation:A Hybrid Model Combining LSTM and Random Forest

Effort estimation plays a crucial role in software development projects,aiding in resource allocation,project planning,and risk management.Traditional estimation techniques often struggle to provide accurate estimates due to the complex nature of software projects.In recent years,machine learning approaches have shown promise in improving the accuracy of effort estimation models.This study proposes a hybrid model that combines Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)and Random Forest(RF)algorithms to enhance software effort estimation.The proposed hybrid model takes advantage of the strengths of both LSTM and RF algorithms.To evaluate the performance of the hybrid model,an extensive set of software development projects is used as the experimental dataset.The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model outperforms traditional estimation techniques in terms of accuracy and reliability.The integration of LSTM and RF enables the model to efficiently capture temporal dependencies and non-linear interactions in the software development data.The hybrid model enhances estimation accuracy,enabling project managers and stakeholders to make more precise predictions of effort needed for upcoming software projects.

Impacts of Model Mismatch and Array Scale on Channel Estimation for XL-HRIS-Aided Systems

Extremely large-scale hybrid reconfigurable intelligence surface(XL-HRIS),an improved version of the RIS,can receive the incident signal and enhance communication performance.However,as the RIS size increases,the phase variations of the received signal across the whole array are nonnegligible in the near-field region,and the channel model mismatch,which will decrease the estimation accuracy,must be considered.In this paper,the lower bound(LB)of the estimated parameter is studied and the impacts of the distance and signal-tonoise ratio(SNR)on LB are then evaluated.Moreover,the impacts of the array scale on LB and spectral efficiency(SE)are also studied.Simulation results verify that even in extremely large-scale array systems with infinite SNR,channel model mismatch can still limit estimation accuracy.However,this impact decreases with increasing distance.

Numerical Simulation and Parameter Estimation of Fractional-Order Dynamic Epidemic Model for COVID-19

The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019 resulted in numerous infections and deaths. In order to better study the transmission of COVID-19, this article adopts an improved fractional-order SIR model. Firstly, the properties of the model are studied, including the feasible domain and bounded solutions of the system. Secondly, the stability of the system is discussed, among other things. Then, the GMMP method is introduced to obtain numerical solutions for the COVID-19 system and combined with the improved MH-NMSS-PSO parameter estimation method to fit the real data of Delhi, India from April 1, 2020 to June 30, 2020. The results show that the fitting effect is quite ideal. Finally, long-term predictions were made on the number of infections. We accurately estimate that the peak number of infections in Delhi, India, can reach around 2.1 million. This paper also compares the fitting performance of the integer-order COVID-19 model and the fractional-order COVID-19 model using the real data from Delhi. The results indicate that the fractional-order model with different orders, as we proposed, performs the best.

Parameter Estimation of a Valve-Controlled Cylinder System Model Based on Bench Test and Operating Data Fusion

The accurate estimation of parameters is the premise for establishing a high-fidelity simulation model of a valve-controlled cylinder system.Bench test data are easily obtained,but it is challenging to emulate actual loads in the research on parameter estimation of valve-controlled cylinder system.Despite the actual load information contained in the operating data of the control valve,its acquisition remains challenging.This paper proposes a method that fuses bench test and operating data for parameter estimation to address the aforementioned problems.The proposed method is based on Bayesian theory,and its core is a pool fusion of prior information from bench test and operating data.Firstly,a system model is established,and the parameters in the model are analysed.Secondly,the bench and operating data of the system are collected.Then,the model parameters and weight coefficients are estimated using the data fusion method.Finally,the estimated effects of the data fusion method,Bayesian method,and particle swarm optimisation(PSO)algorithm on system model parameters are compared.The research shows that the weight coefficient represents the contribution of different prior information to the parameter estimation result.The effect of parameter estimation based on the data fusion method is better than that of the Bayesian method and the PSO algorithm.Increasing load complexity leads to a decrease in model accuracy,highlighting the crucial role of the data fusion method in parameter estimation studies.

A Hybrid Model for Improving Software Cost Estimation in Global Software Development

Accurate software cost estimation in Global Software Development(GSD)remains challenging due to reliance on historical data and expert judgments.Traditional models,such as the Constructive Cost Model(COCOMO II),rely heavily on historical and accurate data.In addition,expert judgment is required to set many input parameters,which can introduce subjectivity and variability in the estimation process.Consequently,there is a need to improve the current GSD models to mitigate reliance on historical data,subjectivity in expert judgment,inadequate consideration of GSD-based cost drivers and limited integration of modern technologies with cost overruns.This study introduces a novel hybrid model that synergizes the COCOMO II with Artificial Neural Networks(ANN)to address these challenges.The proposed hybrid model integrates additional GSD-based cost drivers identified through a systematic literature review and further vetted by industry experts.This article compares the effectiveness of the proposedmodelwith state-of-the-artmachine learning-basedmodels for software cost estimation.Evaluating the NASA 93 dataset by adopting twenty-six GSD-based cost drivers reveals that our hybrid model achieves superior accuracy,outperforming existing state-of-the-artmodels.The findings indicate the potential of combining COCOMO II,ANN,and additional GSD-based cost drivers to transform cost estimation in GSD.

Estimation of Landfill Gas and Its Renewable Energy Potential from the Polesgo Controlled Landfill Using First-Order Decay (FOD) Models

Methane generation in landfills and its inadequate management represent the major avoidable source of anthropogenic methane today. This paper models methane production and the potential resources expected (electrical energy production and potential carbon credits from avoided CH4 emissions) from its proper management in a municipal solid waste landfill located in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. The modeling was carried out using two first-order decay (FOD) models (LandGEM V3.02 and SWANA) using parameters evaluated on the basis of the characteristics of the waste admitted to the landfill and weather data for the site. At the same time, production data have been collected since 2016 in order to compare them with the model results. The results obtained from these models were compared to experimental one. For the simulation of methane production, the SWANA model showed better consistency with experimental data, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.59 compared with the LandGEM model, which obtained a coefficient of 0.006. Thus, despite the low correlation values linked to the poor consistency of experimental data, the SWANA model models methane production much better than the LandGEM model. Thus, despite the low correlation values linked to the poor consistency of the experimental data, the SWANA model models methane production much better than the LandGEM V3.02 model. It was noted that the poor consistency of the experimental data justifies these low coefficients, and that they can be improved in the future thanks to ongoing in situ measurements. According to the SWANA model prediction, in 27 years of operation a biogas plant with 33% electrical efficiency using biogas from the Polesgo landfill would avoid 1,340 GgCO2e. Also, the evaluation of revenues due to electricity and carbon credit gave a total revenue derived from methane production of US$27.38 million at a cost of US$10.5/tonne CO2e.

Estimation of Potential Habitat of Caragana acanthophylla in Xinjiang Based on Maximum Entropy Model

[Objectives]To determine the potential habitat range of Caragana acanthophylla in Xinjiang.[Methods]The known distribution points of C.acanthophylla were used as samples,and a MaxEnt model was developed based on their climatic variables to identify key environmental factors affecting the potential habitats of C.acanthophylla through jackknife method and construction of a response relationship between representative variables and habitat suitability;the suitability of habitats for C.acanthophylla in Xinjiang was evaluated based on the output results of the model.[Results](i)The accuracy of the model verified by AUC curve was 0.971,indicating that the potential habitats of C.acanthophylla in Xinjiang predicted by MaxEnt model were highly credible.(ii)The optimum climatic characteristics for the distribution of C.acanthophylla in Xinjiang were:isothermality 18.8%-34%,minimum temperature of coldest month-30℃to-13℃,mean temperature of coldest quarter-18℃ to-4℃,annual precipitation 80-410 mm,precipitation of driest month 0-25 mm,precipitation of driest quarter 0-82 mm,and precipitation of coldest quarter 0-75 mm.(iii)The total potential distribution area of C.acanthophylla in Xinjiang was modeled to be 1.03×10^(5) km^(2),of which 8.54×10^(3)km^(2) was high suitability area,mainly in the front mountain belt of the north slope of Tianshan Mountain in Urumqi City,Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture,Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture,and Yili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture and the front mountain belt of Barluk Mountain in Tacheng Prefecture.[Conclusions]This study is of great significance for the future scientific management,regeneration,vegetation restoration and ecological protection of C.acanthophylla.

Brain age estimation:premise,promise,and problems

Premise:The com bined effects of modern healthcare practices which prolong lifespan and declining birthrates have created unprecedented changes in age demographics worldwide that are especially pronounced in Japan,South Korea,Europe,and North America.Since old age is the most significant predictor of dementia,global healthcare systems must rise to the challenge of providing care for those with neurodegenerative disorders.

Estimation and mapping of water erosion and soil loss:Application of Gavrilovic erosion potential model(EPM)using GIS and remote sensing in the Assif el mal Watershed,Western high Atlas

Water erosion is a serious problem that leads to soil degradation,loss,and the destruction of structures.Assessing the risk of erosion and determining the affected areas has become crucial in order to understand the main factors influencing its evolution and to minimize its impacts.This study focuses on evaluating the risk of erosion in the Assif el mal watershed,which is located in the High Atlas Mountains.The Erosion Potential Model(EPM)is used to estimate soil losses depending on various parameters such as lithology,hydrology,topography,and morphometry.Geographic information systems and remote sensing techniques are employed to map areas with high erosive potential and their relationship with the distribution of factors involved.Different digital elevation models are also used in this study to highlight the impact of data quality on the accuracy of the results.The findings reveal that approximately 59%of the total area in the Assif el mal basin has low to very low potential for soil losses,while 22%is moderately affected and 19.9%is at high to very high risk.It is therefore crucial to implement soil conservation measures to mitigate and prevent erosion risks.

Estimation of Daily Global Solar Radiation with Different Sunshine-Based Models for Some Burundian Stations

Sunshine duration (S) based empirical equations have been employed in this study to estimate the daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface (G) for six meteorological stations in Burundi. Those equations include the Ångström-Prescott linear model and four amongst its derivatives, i.e. logarithmic, exponential, power and quadratic functions. Monthly mean values of daily global solar radiation and sunshine duration data for a period of 20 to 23 years, from the Geographical Institute of Burundi (IGEBU), have been used. For any of the six stations, ten single or double linear regressions have been developed from the above-said five functions, to relate in terms of monthly mean values, the daily clearness index () to each of the next two kinds of relative sunshine duration (RSD): and . In those ratios, G0, S0 and stand for the extraterrestrial daily solar radiation on a horizontal surface, the day length and the modified day length taking into account the natural site’s horizon, respectively. According to the calculated mean values of the clearness index and the RSD, each station experiences a high number of fairly clear (or partially cloudy) days. Estimated values of the dependent variable (y) in each developed linear regression, have been compared to measured values in terms of the coefficients of correlation (R) and of determination (R2), the mean bias error (MBE), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the t-statistics. Mean values of these statistical indicators have been used to rank, according to decreasing performance level, firstly the ten developed equations per station on account of the overall six stations, secondly the six stations on account of the overall ten equations. Nevertheless, the obtained values of those indicators lay in the next ranges for all the developed sixty equations:;;;, with . These results lead to assert that any of the sixty developed linear regressions (and thus equations in terms of and ), fits very adequately measured data, and should be used to estimate monthly average daily global solar radiation with sunshine duration for the relevant station. It is also found that using as RSD, is slightly more advantageous than using for estimating the monthly average daily clearness index, . Moreover, values of statistical indicators of this study match adequately data from other works on the same kinds of empirical equations.

Aquaporin-4-IgG-seropositive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders:progress of experimental models based on disease pathogenesis

Neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders are neuroinflammatory demyelinating disorders that lead to permanent visual loss and motor dysfunction.To date,no effective treatment exists as the exact causative mechanism remains unknown.Therefore,experimental models of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders are essential for exploring its pathogenesis and in screening for therapeutic targets.Since most patients with neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders are seropositive for IgG autoantibodies against aquaporin-4,which is highly expressed on the membrane of astrocyte endfeet,most current experimental models are based on aquaporin-4-IgG that initially targets astrocytes.These experimental models have successfully simulated many pathological features of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders,such as aquaporin-4 loss,astrocytopathy,granulocyte and macrophage infiltration,complement activation,demyelination,and neuronal loss;however,they do not fully capture the pathological process of human neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders.In this review,we summarize the currently known pathogenic mechanisms and the development of associated experimental models in vitro,ex vivo,and in vivo for neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders,suggest potential pathogenic mechanisms for further investigation,and provide guidance on experimental model choices.In addition,this review summarizes the latest information on pathologies and therapies for neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders based on experimental models of aquaporin-4-IgG-seropositive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders,offering further therapeutic targets and a theoretical basis for clinical trials.

Exploiting fly models to investigate rare human neurological disorders

Rare neurological diseases,while individually are rare,collectively impact millions globally,leading to diverse and often severe neurological symptoms.Often attributed to genetic mutations that disrupt protein function or structure,understanding their genetic basis is crucial for accurate diagnosis and targeted therapies.To investigate the underlying pathogenesis of these conditions,researchers often use non-mammalian model organisms,such as Drosophila(fruit flies),which is valued for their genetic manipulability,cost-efficiency,and preservation of genes and biological functions across evolutionary time.Genetic tools available in Drosophila,including CRISPR-Cas9,offer a means to manipulate gene expression,allowing for a deep exploration of the genetic underpinnings of rare neurological diseases.Drosophila boasts a versatile genetic toolkit,rapid generation turnover,and ease of large-scale experimentation,making it an invaluable resource for identifying potential drug candidates.Researchers can expose flies carrying disease-associated mutations to various compounds,rapidly pinpointing promising therapeutic agents for further investigation in mammalian models and,ultimately,clinical trials.In this comprehensive review,we explore rare neurological diseases where fly research has significantly contributed to our understanding of their genetic basis,pathophysiology,and potential therapeutic implications.We discuss rare diseases associated with both neuron-expressed and glial-expressed genes.Specific cases include mutations in CDK19 resulting in epilepsy and developmental delay,mutations in TIAM1 leading to a neurodevelopmental disorder with seizures and language delay,and mutations in IRF2BPL causing seizures,a neurodevelopmental disorder with regression,loss of speech,and abnormal movements.And we explore mutations in EMC1 related to cerebellar atrophy,visual impairment,psychomotor retardation,and gain-of-function mutations in ACOX1 causing Mitchell syndrome.Loss-of-function mutations in ACOX1 result in ACOX1 deficiency,characterized by very-long-chain fatty acid accumulation and glial degeneration.Notably,this review highlights how modeling these diseases in Drosophila has provided valuable insights into their pathophysiology,offering a platform for the rapid identification of potential therapeutic interventions.Rare neurological diseases involve a wide range of expression systems,and sometimes common phenotypes can be found among different genes that cause abnormalities in neurons or glia.Furthermore,mutations within the same gene may result in varying functional outcomes,such as complete loss of function,partial loss of function,or gain-of-function mutations.The phenotypes observed in patients can differ significantly,underscoring the complexity of these conditions.In conclusion,Drosophila represents an indispensable and cost-effective tool for investigating rare neurological diseases.By facilitating the modeling of these conditions,Drosophila contributes to a deeper understanding of their genetic basis,pathophysiology,and potential therapies.This approach accelerates the discovery of promising drug candidates,ultimately benefiting patients affected by these complex and understudied diseases.

A promising approach for quantifying focal stroke modeling and assessing stroke progression:optical resolution photoacoustic microscopy photothrombosis

To investigate the mechanisms underlying the onset and progression of ischemic stroke,some methods have been proposed that can simultaneously monitor and create embolisms in the animal cerebral cortex.However,these methods often require complex systems and the effect of age on cerebral embolism has not been adequately studied,although ischemic stroke is strongly age-related.In this study,we propose an optical-resolution photoacoustic microscopy-based visualized photothrombosis methodology to create and monitor ischemic stroke in mice simultaneously using a 532 nm pulsed laser.We observed the molding process in mice of different ages and presented age-dependent vascular embolism differentiation.Moreover,we integrated optical coherence tomography angiography to investigate age-associated trends in cerebrovascular variability following a stroke.Our imaging data and quantitative analyses underscore the differential cerebrovascular responses to stroke in mice of different ages,thereby highlighting the technique's potential for evaluating cerebrovascular health and unraveling age-related mechanisms involved in ischemic strokes.

Reduced mesencephalic astrocyte-derived neurotrophic factor expression by mutant androgen receptor contributes to neurodegeneration in a model of spinal and bulbar muscular atrophy pathology

Spinal and bulbar muscular atrophy is a neurodegenerative disease caused by extended CAG trinucleotide repeats in the androgen receptor gene,which encodes a ligand-dependent transcription facto r.The mutant androgen receptor protein,characterized by polyglutamine expansion,is prone to misfolding and forms aggregates in both the nucleus and cytoplasm in the brain in spinal and bulbar muscular atrophy patients.These aggregates alter protein-protein interactions and compromise transcriptional activity.In this study,we reported that in both cultured N2a cells and mouse brain,mutant androgen receptor with polyglutamine expansion causes reduced expression of mesencephalic astrocyte-de rived neurotrophic factor.Overexpressio n of mesencephalic astrocyte-derived neurotrophic factor amelio rated the neurotoxicity of mutant androgen receptor through the inhibition of mutant androgen receptor aggregation.Conversely.knocking down endogenous mesencephalic astrocyte-derived neurotrophic factor in the mouse brain exacerbated neuronal damage and mutant androgen receptor aggregation.Our findings suggest that inhibition of mesencephalic astrocyte-derived neurotrophic factor expression by mutant androgen receptor is a potential mechanism underlying neurodegeneration in spinal and bulbar muscular atrophy.

Rock physics modeling of heterogeneous carbonatereservoirs： porosity estimation and hydrocarbon detection

In heterogeneous natural gas reservoirs, gas is generally present as small patchlike pockets embedded in the water-saturated host matrix. This type of heterogeneity, also called "patchy saturation", causes significant seismic velocity dispersion and attenuation. To establish the relation between seismic response and type of fluids, we designed a rock physics model for carbonates. First, we performed CT scanning and analysis of the fluid distribution in the partially saturated rocks. Then, we predicted the quantitative relation between the wave response at different frequency ranges and the basic lithological properties and pore fluids. A rock physics template was constructed based on thin section analysis of pore structures and seismic inversion. This approach was applied to the limestone gas reservoirs of the right bank block of the Amu Darya River. Based on poststack wave impedance and prestack elastic parameter inversions, the seismic data were used to estimate rock porosity and gas saturation. The model results were in good agreement with the production regime of the wells.

Single leaf area estimation models based on leaf weight of eucalyptus in southern China

Leaf area is an important parameter for modeling tree growth and physiological processes of trees. The single young and mature leaf area estimation models of eucalyptus were developed based on leaf fresh weight. In total, leaf area and leaf weight were measured from 455 fresh leaves of 25 trees of eucalyptus in southern China. The majority of the data （80%） were used for model calibration, and the remaining data （20%） were used for model validation. The linear, compound and power models were tested. Based on goodness of fit, prediction ability and residual performance, we found that linear and power models could best describe the relationship between leaf area and weight for young leaf and mature leaf, respectively. The study provides a simple and reliable method for estimating single-leaf area, which has a good potential in the functional- structural model of eucalyptus.