Monitoring and Evaluation of Present Situation of Environmental Quality in the Sea Area near the Aojiang Estuary in Wenzou

Based on the monitoring results of environmental quality in the sea area near the Aojiang estuary in Wenzou during 2010-2012,the present situation of environmental quality in the sea area was analyzed and evaluated. The results show that p H,DO,CODMn,petroleum,and heavy metals( Cu,Pb,Zn,Cd,Hg,As and Cr) in the sea area near the Aojiang estuary did not exceed the second-class standard of Seawater Quality Standard( GB 3097-1997),but both inorganic nitrogen and reactive phosphate in the sea area exceeded the second-class standard seriously,and the water quality of the sea area was in an eutrophic state; domestic sewage and fertilizer loss were the main sources of nitrogen and phosphorus. The standard index of most evaluation factors of sediment quality except for Zn was smaller than 1,meeting the demands of sediment quality for environmental protection.

Monitoring and Evaluation of Environmental Quality of the Waters near the Feiyun River Estuary in Wenzou in Recent Years

Based on the monitoring results of environmental quality of the waters near the Feiyun River estuary during 2011-2016, the current situation of environmental quality of the waters was analyzed and evaluated. The results showed that pH, DO, COD Mn , petroleum, and heavy metals (Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd, Hg, As and Cr) in the waters near the Feiyun River estuary did not exceed the second-class standard of Seawater Quality Standard (GB 3097-1997), while both inorganic nitrogen and reactive phosphate in the waters exceeded the second-class standard obviously. The water quality of the waters near the Feiyun River estuary was in an eutrophic state. In terms of sediment quality, the standard index of most evaluation factors except for Cu was smaller than 1, meeting the demands of sediment quality for environmental protection.

Fire risk evaluation research on fully mechanized coalface based on the uncertainty measure theory

A relatively perfect coalmine fire risk-evaluating and order-arranging model that includes sixteen influential factors was established according to the statistical information of the fully mechanized coalface ground on the uncertainty measure theory. Then the single-index measure function of sixteen influential factors and the calculation method of computing the index weight ground on entropy theory were respectively established. The value assignment of sixteen influential factors was carried out by the qualitative analysis and observational data, respectively, in succession. The sequence of fire danger class of four experimental coalfaces could be obtained by the computational aids of Matlab according to the confidence level criterion. Some conclusions that the fire danger class of the No.l, No.2 and No.3 coalface belongs to high criticality can be obtained. But the fire danger class of the No.4 coalface belongs to higher criticality. The fire danger class of the No.4 coalface is more than that of the No.2 coalface. The fire danger class of the No.2 coalface is more than that of the No.1 coalface. Finally, the fire danger class of the No.1 coalface is more than that of the No.3 coalface.

Arms Control and Non-Proliferation in East Asia: Grave Situation and Possible Dangers

In some sense, talking about arms control and non-proliferation at the present in East Asia seems unsuitable. Moreover, for the "hawkish" forces in the United States, who are more prominent now than other elements in influencing international politics in East Asia, as well as for those people within this broadly defined region.

Analysis on the Cy-Pres Doctrine in the Public Benefit Trust

Public benefit trust is of great significance to the development of social public welfare, and the cy-pres doctrine as a special principle of public benefit trust, plays an important role in protecting the continuation of public benefit trust, and the realization and reasonable use of high-efficiency trust properties. In this paper, therefore, the origin, establishment, and development trend of the approximation principle as well as its current legislative situation in China are studied, and also its applicability of the Cy-Pres doctrine in China＇s public benefit trust is briefly evaluated, so as to further deepen the understanding of the Cy-Pres doctrine and develop the public benefit trust undertakings in China.

AHP耦合TOPSIS的煤矿安全评价模型及其应用

为客观评价煤矿安全现状,并实现对安全隐患的及时排查,建立基于层次分析法(AHP)耦合逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)的煤矿安全综合评价模型。首先,以事故致因理论为基础,从人、物、环境和管理等4个方面选取影响矿井安全的20个评价指标,并根据指标临界值构建安全现状级别评判标准;其次,基于AHP法确定各层指标重要度,计算得出各指标权重,同时利用TOPSIS方法计算得出样本贴近度矩阵;最后,将权重与贴近度结合,确定出矿井安全现状等级。以义马煤业某矿为例,利用AHP-TOPSIS模型计算得出矿井安全现状等级,同时根据计算结果逆序分析找出存在的安全隐患,分析结果与现场实际情况基本一致。

DTOPSIS法和灰色局势决策在卷烟质量综合评价中的应用

[目的]应用DTOPSIS法和灰色局势决策法对卷烟质量进行综合评价。[方法]运用DTOPSIS法和灰色局势决策方法,对市场上20个不同牌号的卷烟质量进行综合评价,同时还对DTOPSIS法和灰色局势决策在卷烟质量综合评价中的优缺点进行探讨。[结果]试验表明,在注重指标权重的情况下,此2种方法综合评价结果基本相同,I、B、J、C等卷烟的质量综合评价结果优于其他卷烟质量,而Q、H、O、N等卷烟的质量综合评价结果较差,该分析结果与各卷烟在市场上的质量评价基本一致。[结论]研究可为卷烟质量的综合评价提供较为客观的分析方法。

熵-TOPSIS-耦合协调法评价铁路危险品运输系统风险

为定量获取铁路危险品运输系统风险情况,首先,将铁路危险品运输系统分为人、机、物、环、管5个子系统,并阐明各子系统风险因素;然后,综合利用熵权法、逼近理想解排序法（TOPSIS）和耦合协调度模型,提出熵-TOPSIS-耦合协调综合评价法;其次,应用该方法评价我国铁路危险品运输系统风险;最后,就评价结果提出改善建议。结果表明：近年来我国铁路危险品运输系统由有序向无序发展,安全性逐步提升,但人和管理子系统较为薄弱,需采取改善措施,降低耦合效果,保证运输安全。

基于模糊TOPSIS的陆军合成营战场态势感知效能评估

从陆军合成营战场态势感知效能的影响因素出发,构建了陆军合成营战场态势感知效能评估指标体系;运用模糊TOPSIS,给出了陆军合成营战场态势感知效能评估方法;通过实例分析,对不同陆军合成营的战场态势感知效能进行评估,结果表明该方法有效可行,能够为陆军合成营战场态势感知效能评估及优化提供科学有力支撑。

A quantitative model for danger degree evaluation of staged operation of earth dam reservoir in flood season and its application

Based on the natural disaster risk evaluation mode, a quantitative danger degree evaluation model was developed to evaluate the danger degree of earth dam reservoir staged operation in the flood season. A formula for the overtopping risk rate of the earth dam reservoir staged operation was established, with consideration of the joint effect of flood and wind waves in the flood sub-seasons with the Monte Carlo method, and the integrated overtopping risk rate for the whole flood season was obtained via the total probability approach. A composite normalized function was used to transform the dam overtopping risk rate into the danger degree, on a scale of 0-1. Danger degree gradating criteria were divided by four significant characteristic values of the dam overtopping rate, and corresponding guidelines for danger evaluation are explained in detail in this paper. Examples indicated that the dam overtopping danger degree of the Chengbihe Reservoir in China was 0.33-0.57, within the range of moderate danger level, and the flood-limiting water level （FLWL） can be adjusted to 185.00 m for the early and main flood seasons, and 185.00-187.50 m for the late flood season. The proposed quantitative model offers a theoretical basis for determination of the value of the danger degree of an earth dam reservoir under normal operation as well as the optimal scheduling scheme for the reservoir in each stage of the flood season.

基于TOPSIS法和RSR法模糊联合的成都市基层医疗机构综合评价

目的对2013年—2018年成都市基层医疗机构的发展情况进行综合评价,为基层医疗机构的发展和全面实现分级诊疗提供相关建议。方法采用TOPSIS法、RSR法及二者模糊联合法对成都市基层医疗机构进行综合评价。结果2013年—2018年成都市基层医疗机构的综合效益不断提高,2017年的综合效益最好,2014年的综合效益最差。结论TOPSIS法、RSR法以及二者的模糊联合的方法对基层医疗机构的综合评价结果基本一致,能够更加全面、准确、客观地反映基层医疗机构发展情况。

基于TOPSIS与灰色局势决策的无信号交叉口交通安全设施综合评估

为了提高无信号交叉口的综合运行水平,减少交通事故的发生,针对国省干道无信号交叉口的交通安全设施配套设置问题,基于驾驶模拟技术提出了针对无信号交叉口交通安全设施组合方案的综合评估方法,实现以微观驾驶行为数据为基础的公路平交路口交通安全设施组合的有效性评价.以国道101安乐路交叉口为例,搭建包含4组配套组合设施方案的驾驶模拟实验场景,通过实验测试获得驾驶行为数据,从3个层面选取9项评估指标,采用逼近理想解排序(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)评估方法从交叉口安全性、预见性、舒适性3个方面实现组合方案的单目标量化评估,最后选取灰色局势决策方法来实现无信号交叉口多目标综合评估.研究结果表明,该评估方法对解决无信号交叉口设施组合方案的设置问题具有较强的实用性,可针对无信号交叉口交通安全设施组合设置方案进行综合评估.

高等教育强国建设的中国道路

高等教育强国建设是科技强国建设的基础性保障,是人才强国建设的关键性支撑,对中国式现代化建设具有突出的战略意义。推进高等教育强国高质量建设需要厘清中国式现代化引领高等教育强国建设的逻辑谱系,探明符合中国国情与现代化共同特征的强国建设路径;梳理高等教育强国建设的发展机理,增强高等教育强国建设的使命感和紧迫感;深化高等教育改革,回应新时代高等教育强国建设对新质生产力的迫切需要;明晰高水平科技自立自强支撑高等教育强国建设的核心要义,实现科技创新层级与能级的双跃升;以“两个大局”的时代理念作为高等教育高质量发展的时空坐标,厘清高等教育强国建设的行动逻辑。此外,在高等教育强国建设的关键阶段,我国必须以教育评价改革为抓手,破除制约高等教育强国建设的障碍,进而推动高等教育体系实现结构性变革、系统性重塑。

艰险山区铁路工程建设管理协同度评价研究

研究目的:随着铁路工程建设规模不断扩大,其所面临的建设环境更具复杂性、艰险性,对铁路工程建设管理协同性提出更高的要求。本文提出科学的艰险山区铁路工程建设管理协同度评价模型,可为艰险山区铁路工程建设管理协同度评价提供一定的借鉴和参考。研究结论:(1)基于协同理论和物理-事理-人理(WSR)要素分析法,构建了艰险山区铁路工程建设管理协同度评价指标体系;(2)采用改进的模糊层次分析法(FAHP)法和基于熵值法的专家赋权法以组合赋权的方式对评价指标赋权,并结合熵值理论,构建了基于协同熵的协同度评价模型;(3)对某艰险山区铁路工程建设项目的协同度进行评价,验证了该评价模型的科学性和可行性;(4)本研究成果主要应用于艰险山区铁路工程建设协同管理领域。

紧迫危险威胁下交叉相遇局面应急操船方法

为预防船舶因会遇态势感知不明、未能及时采取有效避让行动而导致的碰撞事故,提出面向紧迫危险威胁的应急操船方法。首先基于碰撞事故调查报告数据,反演船舶会遇过程;其次考虑船舶碰撞危险度的不确定性和随机性,构建钟形灰云模型,获得实时碰撞风险概率(PCR),揭示时序下碰撞风险演化特征;然后引入克里金空间插值算法,实现会遇2船碰撞风险感知与图谱表达;最后提出避让决策评估指数和转向避碰应急操船方法。交叉相遇局面碰撞事故验证结果表明:交叉会遇局面下单纯转向避让,让路船对正横后来船在最近会遇时间(TCPA)10 min前向右转向112.5°可有效避免紧迫局面;若让路船无行动,直航船在TCPA 4 min前向右转向45°可有效避免紧迫危险。文中所提事故数据驱动的精细应急操船方法,可与传统的雷达标绘和航海经验的操船方法相结合实施。

基于改进ALARP风险矩阵的危货运输车辆专用停车场安全性评价研究

为评估危货运输车辆专用停车场安全水平,降低危货车辆停放环节风险,提出一种基于改进ALARP风险矩阵的危货运输车辆停车场安全性评价方法。首先,基于事故案例统计数据、在开展致因分析、故障树构建、指标初选、信效度检验的基础上,构建危货运输车辆专用停车场安全风险评级指标体系;其次,结合贝叶斯网络、层次分析法、模糊综合评价法和改进ALARP的风险矩阵法,提出危货运输车辆专用停车场安全风险评价模型;再次,在考虑已知风险可能性、风险损失量化结果的基础上,基于改进ALARP风险矩阵得到专用停车场风险总评价量化值及评价等级;最后,以重庆市某危险货物运输车辆专用停车场为例开展验证分析,验证结果表明,研究所得到的评价结果与实际情况具有较高的一致性。

基于GA-PSO混合优化SVR的边坡危岩体稳定性评价模型

边坡危岩体稳定性评价是地质灾害防治的重要内容之一。传统的稳定性评价方法在求解复杂非线性问题时存在着精度较低、收敛速度慢等问题,为此,提出了一种基于GA-PSO混合优化支持向量回归(SVR)的边坡危岩体稳定性评价模型。首先,通过采集大量的实测数据和监测数据,建立了边坡危岩体的训练样本集;然后,将SVR算法引入稳定性评价中,利用其非线性映射性能拟合边坡危岩体的稳定性函数。为提高SVR模型的优化能力,将遗传算法(GA)和粒子群优化算法(PSO)相结合,形成了GA-PSO混合优化算法,并用于求解SVR模型中的优化问题。选取了多个现场实际边坡危岩体工程案例进行了算法测试。结果表明:相对于传统方法,GA-PSO混合优化SVR模型能够准确预测边坡危岩体的稳定性,并且具有较高的精度和较快的收敛速度。

基于中国鸟情的鸟撞适航条款充分性和适宜性

以中国民航近十余年运输类飞机鸟撞信息为数据源,利用混合威布尔函数拟合鸟撞能量分布,并应用列文伯格-马夸尔特(L-M)寻优算法得到更为精确的拟合分布参数估计值。对照安全性指标,通过鸟撞能量分布函数评估出现有鸟撞适航条款对机翼而言是具有充分性和适宜性的,对尾翼而言具有充分性但过于保守。以发生灾难性事故的安全性指标为依据,中国鸟情环境下机翼结构抗鸟撞鸟体质量最低适航要求为1.218 kg;同时验证了美国联邦航空局(FAA)在美国鸟情环境下提高机翼结构抗鸟撞鸟体质量最低适航要求的愿景(约3.6 kg),证明了基于两重两参数混合威布尔分布的鸟撞冲击能量统计分析方法的有效性及结果的可信度,为中国民航自主修订相关适航条款修订提供了理论依据和实践参考。

妇产科学形成性评价学情摸底调查分析

目的在建立《妇产科学》形成性评价体系之前进行学情摸底,以利于有的放矢的建立形成性评价体系,因材施教。方法对新疆医科大学临床医学2019级10个平行班中随机抽取的4个班级采用“问卷星”的形式进行问卷调查。结果37.44%(76/203)的学生在学习过程中“有时”能够发挥自主探究精神,35.96%(73/203)学生在以往学习过程中,老师“经常”鼓励做学习情况的自我评价和小组互评,32.02%(65/203)学生“有时”进行学习情况的自我评价,58.13%(118/203)的学生会在学习遇到困难的时候向老师求助。超过70%的学生认为形成性评价有利于自己确定学习目标、更好地完成任务,定期评价课堂学习参与度有利于专注课堂学习,同学之间相互评价有利于彼此进步。超过66.01%(134/203)的学生认为妇产科学教学形成性评价内容应该包括:课堂表现、平时学习测验、专业实践能力、综合素质(包括思想品德、团队协作能力等)。结论本研究为后续建立并实施《妇产科学》形成性评价体系奠定了基础,指引了方向。