Probability estimation based on grey system theory for simulation evaluation

In the evaluation of some simulation systems, only small samples data are gotten due to the limited conditions. In allusion to the evaluation problem of small sample data, an interval estimation approach with the improved grey confidence degree is proposed.On the basis of the definition of grey distance, three kinds of definition of the grey weight for every sample element in grey estimated value are put forward, and then the improved grey confidence degree is designed. In accordance with the new concept, the grey interval estimation for small sample data is deduced. Furthermore,the bootstrap method is applied for more accurate grey confidence interval. Through resampling of the bootstrap, numerous small samples with the corresponding confidence intervals can be obtained. Then the final confidence interval is calculated from the union of these grey confidence intervals. In the end, the simulation system evaluation using the proposed method is conducted. The simulation results show that the reasonable confidence interval is acquired, which demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Enrichment factors of movable hydrocarbons in lacustrine shale oil and exploration potential of shale oil in Gulong Sag,Songliao Basin,NE China

The geological characteristics and production practices of the major middle-and high-maturity shale oil exploration areas in China are analyzed.Combined with laboratory results,it is clear that three essential conditions,i.e.economic initial production,commercial cumulative oil production of single well,and large-scale recoverable reserves confirmed by the testing production,determine whether the continental shale oil can be put into large-scale commercial development.The quantity and quality of movable hydrocarbons are confirmed to be crucial to economic development of shale oil,and focuses in evaluation of shale oil enrichment area/interval.The evaluation indexes of movable hydrocarbon enrichment include:(1)the material basis for forming retained hydrocarbon,including TOC>2%(preferentially 3%-4%),and typeⅠ-Ⅱkerogens;(2)the mobility of retained hydrocarbon,which is closely related to the hydrocarbon composition and flow behaviors of light/heavy components,and can be evaluated from the perspectives of thermal maturity(Ro),gas-oil ratio(GOR),crude oil density,quality of hydrocarbon components,preservation conditions;and(3)the reservoir characteristics associated with the engineering reconstruction,including the main pore throat distribution zone,reservoir physical properties(including fractures),lamellation feature and diagenetic stage,etc.Accordingly,13 evaluation indexes in three categories and their reference values are established.The evaluation indicates that the light shale oil zones in the Gulong Sag of Songliao Basin have the most favorable enrichment conditions of movable hydrocarbons,followed by light oil and black oil zones,containing 20.8×10^(8) t light oil resources in reservoirs with R_(0)>1.2%,pressure coefficient greater than 1.4,effective porosity greater than 6%,crude oil density less than 0.82 g/cm^(3),and GOR>100 m/m^(3).The shale oil in the Gulong Sag can be explored and developed separately by the categories(resource sweet spot,engineering sweet spot,and tight oil sweet spot)depending on shale oil flowability.The Gulong Sag is the most promising area to achieve large-scale breakthrough and production of continental shale oil in China.