Numerical simulation of drop weight impact sensitivity evaluation criteria for pressed PBXs

A thorough understanding of drop-weight impacted responses for polymer-bonded explosives(PBXs)is significant to evaluate their impact sensitivity.The characteristics of the drop-weight impacted pressed PBXs including deforming,fracturing,forming a local high-temperature region and igniting,were simulated using a coupled mechanical-thermo-chemical model integrating micro-defects evolution.A novel evaluation method for impact sensitivity is established using the relation between the input kinetic energy and the output energy due to deformation,crushing energy,local hot spot energy and ignition.The effects of impact velocity on sensitivity were analyzed and the critical local ignition impact velocity is determined as 4.0-4.5 m/s.The simulated results show that shear-crack friction heating is the dominant ignition mechanism.The region along the boundary of PBXs sample is the most hazardous regions where ignition first occur.The propagation of stress wave in PBXs causes shear-crack hotspot and bulk temperature exhibiting an approximate 45°direction evolution path,which is the main reason that dominated damage-ignition region transits from the boundary to the central of sample.

Detailed analysis and simulation verification for reconstruction of plasma optical boundary with spectrometric technique on HL-2M tokamak

The plasma optical boundary reconstruction technique based on Hommen's theory is promising for future tokamaks with high parameters. In this work, we conduct detailed analysis and simulation verification to estimate the ‘logic loophole' of this technique. The finite-width effect and unpredictable errors reduce the technique's reliability, which leads to this loophole. Based on imaging theory, the photos of a virtual camera are simulated by integrating the assumed luminous intensity of plasma. Based on Hommen's theory, the plasma optical boundary is reconstructed from the photos. Comparing the reconstructed boundary with the one assumed, the logic loophole and its two effects are quantitatively estimated. The finite-width effect is related to the equivalent thickness of the luminous layer, which is generally about 2-4 cm but sometimes larger. The level of unpredictable errors is around 0.65 cm. The technique based on Hommen's theory is generally reliable, but finite-width effect and unpredictable errors have to be taken into consideration in some scenarios. The parameters of HL-2M are applied in this work.

Evaluation of the Arctic Sea-Ice Simulation on SODA3 Datasets

This study evaluates the Arctic sea-ice simulation of the SODA3 dataset driven by different atmospheric forcing fields and explores the errors of the Arctic sea-ice simulation caused by the forcing field.We find that the SODA3 data driven by different forcing fields represent a significant systematical error in the simulation of Arctic sea-ice concentration,showing a low concentration of thick ice and a high concentration of thin ice.In terms of sea-ice extent,the SODA3 data from different versions well characterize the interannual variability and declining trend in the observed data,but they overestimate the overall Arctic sea-ice extent,which is related to excessive simulation of ice in the sea-ice margin.Compared to observations,all the chosen SODA3 reanalysis versions driven by different atmospheric forcing generally tend to underestimate the Arctic sea-ice thickness,especially for thick ice in the multi-year sea-ice regions.Inaccurate simulations of Arctic sea-ice transport may partly explain the error in SODA3 sea-ice thickness in multi-year sea-ice areas.The results of different SDOA3 versions differ greatly in the Beaufort Sea,the Fram Strait,and the Central Arctic Sea.The difference in sea-ice thickness among different SODA3 versions is primarily due to the thermodynamic contribution,which may come from the diversity of atmospheric forcing fields.Our work provides a reference for using SODA3 data to study Arctic sea ice.

Evaluation and scenario simulation for forest ecological security in China

Continuously growing populations and rapid economic development have led to the excessive use of forest resources,and the forest ecosystem is threatened.In response,forest ecological security(FES)has attracted attention.In this study,an integrated dynamic simulation model was constructed using the system dynamic method,and it was used to evaluate the FES in China from 1999 to 2014.A scenario analysis was then used to evaluate the changes in the FES under five forestry policy scenarios for the 2015–2050 period,including the baseline,afforestation policy,harvesting policies,management policy,investment policy,and a policy mix.The results showed that the evaluation values of the FES increased during the period from 1999 to 2002,the period from 2004 to 2010 and the year 2014,and they decreased in 2003 and during the period from 2011 to 2013.During the 2015–2050 simulation period,the FES improved continuously.In particular,China would enter a new stage when the economic systems,social systems and ecosystems were in harmony after 2040.To improve the FES and the current status of the FES,a scenario analysis showed the most suitable scenario to be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2020 and Scenario 2 from 2021 to 2050.To relieve pressure,the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2040 and from 2046 to 2050,and the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 4 for 2041–2045.A policy mix(Scenario 5)would be most efficient under current conditions,while the effects of all the benefits of the forestry policies would weaken over the long term.The integrated method can be regarded as a decision support tool to help policy makers understand FES and promulgate a reasonable forestry policy.

Simulation Evaluation Study of System Reliability Based on Improved BayesBootstrap Method

For the disadvantages of analyzing system reliability using common Bayes method,an evaluation method based on improved Bayes-Bootstrap method is presented.Firstly,the data obliteration problem existing in traditional Bayes method is analyzed,then an improved sampling arithmetic is proposed on the foundation of an experience function.Finally,effectiveness of this method is proved by an example.The simulating result shows that this method is more accurate than common Bayes method.

Probability estimation based on grey system theory for simulation evaluation

In the evaluation of some simulation systems, only small samples data are gotten due to the limited conditions. In allusion to the evaluation problem of small sample data, an interval estimation approach with the improved grey confidence degree is proposed.On the basis of the definition of grey distance, three kinds of definition of the grey weight for every sample element in grey estimated value are put forward, and then the improved grey confidence degree is designed. In accordance with the new concept, the grey interval estimation for small sample data is deduced. Furthermore,the bootstrap method is applied for more accurate grey confidence interval. Through resampling of the bootstrap, numerous small samples with the corresponding confidence intervals can be obtained. Then the final confidence interval is calculated from the union of these grey confidence intervals. In the end, the simulation system evaluation using the proposed method is conducted. The simulation results show that the reasonable confidence interval is acquired, which demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Numerical Simulation Analysis and Ecological Evaluation on Wind Environment of Dwelling Groups in Severe Cold Regions

The wind environment around residential building groups is increasingly concerned,while the dwelling groups as the elementary unit of planning design,its quality of surrounding wind environment will directly affect people's life. This study based on the climatic conditions of severe cold regions,selects four dwellings groups with different openings scale and position as the research objects,and then simulates and analyzes the wind speed distribution characteristics of each pattern. Meanwhile,it extracts the wind speed values of one hundred points of each pattern and applies the coefficient of uniformity method to the ecological evaluation. It has been found that grouping pattern of buildings has a dramatic effect on the resulting airflow behavior. Configurations that contain a T-shaped central space with small opened side can effectively prevent and contain airflow in the site offer. The interactive influence between layout of dwelling groups and wind environment are explored,so as to provide basis for the planning design of dwelling groups.

Comparison of delay compensation methods for real-time hybrid simulation using frequency-domain evaluation index

The delay compensation method plays an essential role in maintaining the stability and achieving accurate real-time hybrid simulation results. The effectiveness of various compensation methods in different test scenarios, however, needs to be quantitatively evaluated. In this study, four compensation methods （i.e., the polynomial extrapolation, the linear acceleration extrapolation, the inverse compensation and the adaptive inverse compensation） are selected and compared experimentally using a frequency evaluation index （FEI） method. The effectiveness of the FEI method is first verified through comparison with the discrete transfer fimction approach for compensation methods assuming constant delay. Incomparable advantage is further demonstrated for the FEI method when applied to adaptive compensation methods, where the discrete transfer function approach is difficult to implement. Both numerical simulation and laboratory tests with predefined displacements are conducted using sinusoidal signals and random signals as inputs. Findings from numerical simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the FEI method is an efficient and effective approach to compare the performance of different compensation methods, especially for those requiring adaptation of compensation parameters.

A Sound Quality Objective Evaluation Method Based on Auditory Peripheral Simulation Model

Based on auditory peripheral simulation model, a new Sound Quality Objective Evaluation (SQOE) method is presented,which can be used to model and analyze the impacts of head, shoulder and other parts of human body on sound wave trans-mission.This method employs the artificial head technique, in which the head related transfer function was taken into account tothe outer ear simulation phase.First, a bionic artificial head was designed as the outer ear model with considering the outersound field in view of theory and physical explanations.Then the auditory peripheral simulation model was built, which mimicsthe physiological functions of the human hearing, simulating the acoustic signal transfer process and conversion mechanismsfrom the free field to the peripheral auditory system.Finally, performance comparison was made between the proposed SQOEmethod and ArtemiS software, and the verifications of subjective and objective related analysis were made.Results show thatthe proposed method was economical, simple, and with good evaluation quality.

Urban Development Boundary Simulation Based on“Double Evaluation”and FLUS Model

The delimitation of urban development boundaries plays an important role in optimizing the nation land space.“Double evaluation”is one of the important means to study and predict the scale of new construction land in the future and to determine the spatial distribution of urban construction land.This study combines the“double evaluation”with the FLUS(Future Land-Use Simulation)model to study the delimitation of the urban development boundary of Yichang.The results show that:(1)the“double evaluation”method comprehensively considers the carrying capacity of the resource environmental bear and the suitability of urban development;(2)the FLUS model can better couple the“double evaluation”method for Land Use/Land Cover(LULC)suitability evaluation,Land Use/land Cover Change(LUCC)simulation and urban development boundary delineation,and the overall accuracy of the simulation reaches 96%;(3)according to the requirements of relevant national policies,this study divides the urban development boundary of the study area into concentrated construction areas,elastic development areas and special purpose areas.This function-based division can meet the requirements of urban flexible development,ecological protection and urban safety.This research combines the FLUS model,which is widely used in the simulation of LUCC,with the double evaluation method used in China’s new round of land and space planning to obtain the result of the urban development boundary.This result is consistent with the existing plan of the study area.

Design of Simulation System for Effectiveness Evaluation of Future Airspace Window Shooting

Future Airspace Window Shooting is a newly developed technology, which needs effectiveness evaluation before widely used. Future airspace window shooting technology, simulation system development principles and software chosen to develop the simulation system are introduced in the first. And then the overall design of the system, realization of the system and effectiveness evaluation through simulation are discussed in detail. Through the simulation, it is known that the FAW shooting has more superior performance when facing maneuvering targets.

Numerical simulation and experimental verification of the restraint intensity of pipeline girth welding joint

The restraint intensity （RI） of the pipeline girth welding joint was investigated using finite element method and experimental method to predict the cold cracking susceptibility of pipeline steel. The distribution of RI along the girth weld was investigated to study the influence of welding position on the RL Subsequently, the effects of outer diameter （OD） and wall thickness of pipeline on the RI were studied with ABAQUS software. The results show that the RI is almost independent of welding position. The RI increased with the increasing wall thickness but decreased with the increasing OD. A prediction model of Rl was developed based on the effects of the OD and the wall thickness. It has been found that the predicted RIs were in good agreement with the experimental values. The maximum fractional error between the predicted RI and the experimental values was just about 10%. h was indicated that the errors were mainly caused by the heterogeneous of the weld bead.

An Efficient Simulation Tool of Performance Evaluation for Communication Networks

We provide an efficient simulation tool for performance evaluation in communication networks. Not only the general simulation functions-which can be found in some old simulation tools, but also the perturbation function module via the Standard Clock (SC) approach-in which more than 2 perturbation simulation event paths can be constructed parallelly based on a single nominal simulation event path is included in this simulation software platform.

Reliability Evaluation of Distribution Systems under <i>μ</i>Grid-Tied and Islanded <i>μ</i>Grid Modes Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Reliability evaluation of distribution networks under grid-tied and islanded μ grid modes is presented. The Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) algorithm is applied to a modified RBTS Bus 2 distribution network. The network includes three types of distributed energy resources, namely, solar photovoltaic (PV), wind turbine (WT), and diesel turbine generator (DTG). These distributed generators contribute to supply part of the load during grid-connected mode, but supply 100% of the load in the islanded μ grid mode. A storage system is included to decrease the peak load since the peak of the output power of the PV’s and the peak load do not match time wise in most load profiles. The impact of implementing renewable distributed generation, storage systems, and conventional generation on the reliability of distribution network is studied. This study shows that the penetration of distributed generations can improve the reliability indices of the distribution network.

Surgical simulation and evaluation in anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction with image-free navigation

A surgical simulation and evaluation method in the anterior cruciate ligament(ACL)reconstructionwith image-free navigation was presented.Firstly,video tracking module,bone surface reconstructionmodule and virtual simulation module of this system were discussed.Secondly,the coordinate relations ofseveral surgery objects(including surgical instrument,anatomical,camera and screen)in the surgicalenvironment,the tracking based on MicronTracker with two cameras and the bone surface real-time recon-struction based on the Delaunay algorithm were introduced in detail.Finally,experiments of anisometrymeasurement and virtual simulation on two plastics were carried out to verify the validity of the proposedmethod.The anisometry value of reconstructed ACL was 8.970039mm.The effectiveness of ACL recon-struction has been proved by preliminary evaluation trials.

Dependability Evaluation of a Vehicle System by Simulation Method

The vehicle system studied in this paper is a type of complex repairable system in which the subsystems follow various failure distributions and conform to arbitrary failure and repair distributions.The failure data of subsystems are sometimes lacking,and the reliability test sample sizes tend to be small.Monte-Carlo technique combined with Bayes method is used to evaluate its dependability(reliability and maintainability).Following the "first-in,first-out" queuing rule,the logic relation of dependability is established by means of repairing priority and event lists.Simulation outputs the entire history of a mission,statistics of reliability and maintainability parameters and provides the basic data for system reliability design and maintainability management.

Evaluation of Tianji and ECMWF high-resolution precipitation forecasts for extreme rainfall event in Henan in July 2021

The extreme rainfall event of July 17 to 22, 2021 in Henan Province, China, led to severe urban waterlogging and flood disasters. This study investigated the performance of high-resolution weather forecasts in predicting this extreme event and the feasibility of weather forecast-based hydrological forecasts. To achieve this goal, high-resolution precipitation forecasts from the Tianji weather system and the forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were evaluated with the spatial verification metrics of structure, amplitude, and location. The results showed that Tianji weather forecasts accurately predicted the amplitude of 12-h accumulated precipitation with a lead time of 12 h. The location and structure of the rainfall areas in Tianji forecasts were closer to the observations than ECMWF forecasts. Tianji hourly precipitation forecasts were also more accurate than ECMWF hourly forecasts, especially at lead times shorter than 8 h. The precipitation forecasts were used as the inputs to a hydrological model to evaluate their hydrological applications. The results showed that the runoff forecasts driven by Tianji weather forecasts could effectively predict the extreme flood event. The runoff forecasts driven by Tianji forecasts were more accurate than those driven by ECMWF forecasts in terms of amplitude and location. This study demonstrates that high-resolution weather forecasts and corresponding hydrological forecasts can provide valuable information in advance for disaster warnings and leave time for people to act on the event. The results encourage further hydrological applications of high-resolution weather forecasts, such as Tianji weather forecasts, in the future.

Evaluation of the Added Value of Probabilistic Nowcasting Ensemble Forecasts on Regional Ensemble Forecasts

Ensemble forecasting systems have become an important tool for estimating the uncertainties in initial conditions and model formulations and they are receiving increased attention from various applications.The Regional Ensemble Prediction System(REPS),which has operated at the Beijing Meteorological Service(BMS)since 2017,allows for probabilistic forecasts.However,it still suffers from systematic deficiencies during the first couple of forecast hours.This paper presents an integrated probabilistic nowcasting ensemble prediction system(NEPS)that is constructed by applying a mixed dynamicintegrated method.It essentially combines the uncertainty information(i.e.,ensemble variance)provided by the REPS with the nowcasting method provided by the rapid-refresh deterministic nowcasting prediction system(NPS)that has operated at the Beijing Meteorological Service(BMS)since 2019.The NEPS provides hourly updated analyses and probabilistic forecasts in the nowcasting and short range(0-6 h)with a spatial grid spacing of 500 m.It covers the three meteorological parameters:temperature,wind,and precipitation.The outcome of an evaluation experiment over the deterministic and probabilistic forecasts indicates that the NEPS outperforms the REPS and NPS in terms of surface weather variables.Analysis of two cases demonstrates the superior reliability of the NEPS and suggests that the NEPS gives more details about the spatial intensity and distribution of the meteorological parameters.

The Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia Pattern and Its Key Region in Winter in CMIP6 Model Simulations

An enhanced Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia(WACE)pattern has been a notable feature in recent winters of the Northern Hemisphere.However,divergent results between model and observational studies of the WACE still remain.This study evaluates the performance of 39 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating the WACE pattern in winter of 1980-2014 and explores the key factors causing the differences in the simulation capability among the models.The results show that the multimodel ensemble(MME)can better simulate the spatial distribution of the WACE pattern than most single models.Models that can/cannot simulate both the climatology and the standard deviation of the Eurasian winter surface air temperature well,especially the latter,usually can/cannot simulate the WACE pattern well.This mainly results from the different abilities of the models to simulate the range and intensity of the warm anomaly in the Barents Sea-Kara seas(BKS)region.Further analysis shows that a good performance of the models in the BKS area is usually related to their ability to simulate location and persistence of Ural blocking(UB),which can transport heat to the BKS region,causing the warm Arctic,and strengthen the westerly trough downstream,cooling central Eurasia.Therefore,simulation of UB is key and significantly affects the model’s performance in simulating the WACE.